AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Carlos Danger
Top 20
So here's where it could get interesting. The process for FIRB is:
If the potential acquirer is a foreign person, or is controlled (20%+) by a foreign person (including a foreign government), it may need to obtain prior clearance from the Federal Treasurer, through the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). The Treasurer has power to block acquisitions that are contrary to Australia’s national interest, and make disposal orders if the acquisition has happened (see under 3. "Foreign investment regulation" below). In making his decision the Treasurer and FIRB will consult with a range of other government agencies (including competition, taxation, defence and security agencies).
Nigel said at the AGM that the seat on the board was the crucial part of the Yibin Tianyi deal in 2020 that FIRB were against. If Deeland somehow gets over 50% of AVZ shareholders to support them they could spill the board. But the important question is would a new board be approved by FIRB when Deeland are obviously linked to a Chinese company like Zijin?
Especially seeing as giving a Chinese company a seat on the AVZ board was not allowed previously. This could be the reason Zijin are using Deeland which is headquartered in the UK as a surrogate but FIRB would see right through that imo
Deeland are claiming they want to take AVZ off the ASX so FIRB might not even care. The key thing is the deposit isn't in Australia. What FIRB were upset about with Yibin Tianyi was a Chinese government backed entity having a vote on the board of an ASX listed company. If that company isn't listed anymore because it has been bought out then there is no longer a direct concern about 'Australia’s national interest' for FIRB to consider imo
Here's my post on September 8th:
Zijin weren't crashing AVZ's share price to try and devalue AVZ's offer to Cominiere. They were deliberately crashing (through disinformation and imo share sales) the AVZ share price while using Mupande to delay the licence to make a hostile takeover cheaper. The ASX are aware of this and that is why they are happy to let AVZ drift on endlessly in suspension imo
From the AGM:
We knew Chinese would have a crack, but we did not expect parts of DRC government to be in on it?
A: Nor did we - “we thought it was gambit by Chinese groups to get project cheapest way. We weren’t aware it was also elements of the government complicit. We can’t go into it, but rest assured those people are being turned over within meetings with real information is being shared, and people put on the spot.
Collusion between all those 3 – namely Zijin, Jin Cheng, CAMI?
A: That would be astute thought
Interview NF mentioned once mentioned once decree issued 10 day period before Court could issue the licence. What happened?
A: This was a misunderstanding. As soon as your documentation was in order and issued, this talk of periods was regarding the ministerial decree. Other steps in way of ML – CAMI have held up the invoicing, illegally in our view.
Key words 'gambit by Chinese groups to get project cheapest way' imo
I remember someone from the German roadshows in April saying that Nigel told them a takeover offer had been made in the past few months but that the board didn't consider it serious. That offer was definitely from Zijin imo. When they got told no by AVZ they proceeded with their backup plan.
Think about the timing of when Zijin began spruiking that they 'bought' the 15% of Dathcom from Cominiere. That alleged event occurred in September 2021 but they didn't start making noise about it until around the time that AVZ got the ministerial decree in May 2022.
If they had moved earlier it may have put the granting of the licence to Dathcom at risk. Now Dathcom legally have the PE all Zijin would need to do if they buy out AVZ is get Mupande to finally calculate the surface rights and register the licence. A process which is meant to have a max of 5 days to happen in the DRC mining code but we have been waiting almost 8 months so far to be completed.
If Zijin are successful in launching a hostile takeover of AVZ they could also drop AVZ's defence against them at the ICC and pay off Cong to legally own 90% of Dathcom. They have no chance of winning at the ICC so I can't see any other reason they haven't officially dropped out yet.
Zijin have made no secret about their plans of moving into the battery value chain. They have the experience in mining and the money to build battery plants but like everyone else they don't have a secure supply of lithium. What better way of securing their goal of whole of supply chain control in renewables than by taking the best resource on earth from under the current market leader CATL's nose. Zijin are determined to get control of Manono whatever the cost.
At the alleged offer price of $1.53 AVZ would be valued at around $5.3b AUD. Add in another $200m for Cominiere, Dathomir and snacks for some DRC officials and Zijin would have it all. Zijin buying 90% of Dathcom for around $5.5b AUD before the mine is even touched would be the acquisition of the century imo
Maybe I've had too many pineapple infused eggnogs for Christmas and am just talking nonsense. Perhaps I would be thinking differently if I was drinking champagne.
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Carlos, enjoyed reading your post and a bit of thought went into it. However, I think Zijin have shot themselves in the foot with the Cominiere sale. They were exposed by the IGF, they went on record backing out of the sale and have a poor record of worker abuse and sticking the finger up at complying with DRC laws. Even though Cominiere were the guilty party according to IGF, not hard to see that Zijin were in it for the steal and Govt would have seen right through that. I’m sure Marius would have also had some words to say to Felix about Zijin’s true intentions.
Even if your theory came to fruition, Felix and the whole DRC Ministry would not let Zijin come within 10 feet of Manono. Would you if you found out they tried to rip your country off to the value of $120m+ plus their poor track record? Leaving the whole battery schematic and vision of the DRC Govt to a company of thieves is not in their best interests and the US would also be in their ear and pull out any potential investments and their current MOU to support the battery value chain initiative with Zambia.
All imo.
Even if your theory came to fruition, Felix and the whole DRC Ministry would not let Zijin come within 10 feet of Manono. Would you if you found out they tried to rip your country off to the value of $120m+ plus their poor track record? Leaving the whole battery schematic and vision of the DRC Govt to a company of thieves is not in their best interests and the US would also be in their ear and pull out any potential investments and their current MOU to support the battery value chain initiative with Zambia.
All imo.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
I agree but was just trying to shine a light on Zijin's intentions in this shit show. Let's see what happens. Lions gonna lion.
Yet Mupande was one of the signatories required to grant the decree. I heard this is a fake account.
Another point of interest is the Dathcom JV. The PE has been granted based on the existing JV. If another party moves in, wouldn’t it render this JV dissolved and therefore PE is no longer valid? Can’t just hand a PE over to another entity.
Also AVZI hold all the intellectual property over drill data, feasibility study, mining plan, infrastructure etc. Doubt they would hand this over to anyone on a silver platter.
So would Zijin say need to recommence the whole 5 year process undertaken by AVZ to get where they are today? Think Govt would wait that long when there’s already a party at the table ready to start building the mine.
Then there’s the consideration of offtakes and financing. How long will that take for Zijin to prove all of that and do their own feasibility study?
If Govt grants PE to another entity bypassing all of this after AVZ has done the hard yards for the last five years, goes against everything they are trying to stamp out.
Anyway, just my ramblings while I’m trying to digest the 5kg of food I had today.
Another point of interest is the Dathcom JV. The PE has been granted based on the existing JV. If another party moves in, wouldn’t it render this JV dissolved and therefore PE is no longer valid? Can’t just hand a PE over to another entity.
Also AVZI hold all the intellectual property over drill data, feasibility study, mining plan, infrastructure etc. Doubt they would hand this over to anyone on a silver platter.
So would Zijin say need to recommence the whole 5 year process undertaken by AVZ to get where they are today? Think Govt would wait that long when there’s already a party at the table ready to start building the mine.
Then there’s the consideration of offtakes and financing. How long will that take for Zijin to prove all of that and do their own feasibility study?
If Govt grants PE to another entity bypassing all of this after AVZ has done the hard yards for the last five years, goes against everything they are trying to stamp out.
Anyway, just my ramblings while I’m trying to digest the 5kg of food I had today.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
It's not a fake account imo
I agree with everything else you say but Mupande currently holds the keys to the kingdom. He may be a clown but he has repeatedly proven that he has the ability to win over the crowd no matter who the king is.
Jesters do oft prove prophets
Your line of thinking seems logical. Something along these lines could well be the way this ends.
The Chinese want to control and mine Manono. The Chinese are not spending time and money delaying this project and participating in a misinformation campaign for months on end for no reason. We know they really want it.
When I try to figure out why people are doing things I always look at what they have to gain. Whoever is circulating this "Deeland offer" information seems to be anti AVZ. If they were a simple troll would it not be more likely that they would say "this is going to 5c/zero etc" rather than quoting a price around all time high share price (although Manono is worth far more)? If they were simply trying to troll people and inflict maximum pain and stress, then you would think they would get more enjoyment putting forward the potential of holders losing all their money. The fact that they have quoted a much higher price makes me suspect that this is something different, although I do not know exactly what. What I do know is that the Chinese are circling this project and looking for a way to obtain it. They ARE up to something.
The article I read was worded in such a way that this offer appeared like a good way out for long suffering shareholders. The Chinese have put so much effort into making it seem like this project will never get off the ground, many shareholders on this forum and elsewhere are disillusioned. This creates an environment where a much lower offer seems better than it really is.
I would much prefer if the mining licence was able to be granted and then we said to them, ok $3.
If DRC government came straight out and said right, Zijin get out of the country, Princess fired/locked up, Mupande fired/locked up, then I would agree with you that Zijin really shot themselves in the foot.
The reality is that DRC have not done this and Zijin have been robbing DRC for decades. $10 million for example is a gigantic amount of money in DRC. It is totally life changing for an individual in DRC and generations going forward of their family, but it is pocket change for Zijin. This means that Zijin really can exploit DRC by bribing a small number of key players who are motivated to sell out the country and let China steal the resources. The Chinese still have many key players on the books, which is the reason they have been able to stall the project for as long as they have.
IGF have released some findings but there is so much corruption in DRC and they are so poor, that it is difficult to get these Chinese companies out when they have so much money.
I think it is more likely that Zijin go, oh sorry about that, you can keep the $6 million deposit we paid (likely discussed at the meeting with the Princess and other meetings). They then will negotiate a higher price for the rest, whether they think they can get it for $150m or more.
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Merry Christmas and Happy 2023 everyone.
Merry Christmas and Happy 2023 everyone.
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Harvard professor explains ‘heart-wrenching’ source of electric vehicle, iPhone batteries
A Harvard professor and modern slavery activist has spoken to Joe Rogan about the “appalling” truth behind the iPhone sitting in your pocket.Jeffrey Clark — NY Post
December 26, 2022 - 9:39AM
Tech companies are trying to clean up the way they source cobalt, a key ingredient in batteries for smartphones, laptops and electric cars. The mineral is often dug by hand under hazardous conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Photo: Alexandra Wexler/The Wall Street Journal
https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...x/news-story/4cc379beb4dc9bb0667e0d652fed3bbb
A Harvard visiting professor and modern slavery activist has exposed the “appalling” cobalt mining industry in the Congo on a recent episode of The Joe Rogan Experience that went viral.
The video has already racked up more than one million views and counting.
Siddharth Kara, author of Cobalt Red: How The Blood of The Congo Powers Our Lives, told podcast host Joe Rogan that there’s no such thing as “clean cobalt”.
“That’s all marketing,” Prof Kara said.
A child and a woman work in a cobalt pit in Lubumbashi. Picture: Junior Kannah/AFP
Prof Kara told Rogan that the level of “suffering” of the Congolese people working in cobalt mines was astounding.
When asked by Rogan if there was any cobalt mine in the Congo that did not rely on “child labour” or “slavery”, Prof Kara told him there were none.
“I’ve never seen one and I’ve been to almost all the major industrial cobalt mines [in the country],” he said.
One reason for that is that the demand for cobalt is exceptionally high.
“Cobalt is in every single lithium, rechargeable battery manufactured in the world today,” he explained.
‘Congo is sitting on more cobalt than the rest of the planet combined.’ Picture: Kenny Katombe/Reuters
As a result, it’s difficult to think of a piece of technology that does not rely on cobalt to function, Prof Kara said. “Every smartphone, every tablet, every laptop and crucially, every electric vehicle” needs the mineral.
“We can’t function on a day-to-day basis without cobalt, and three-fourths of the supply is coming out of the Congo,” he added. “And it’s being mined in appalling, heart-wrenching, dangerous conditions.”
But “by and large the world doesn’t know what’s happening” in the Congo, Prof Kara said.
“I don’t think people are aware of how horrible it is,” Rogan agreed.
Chunks of raw cobalt at a plant in Congo. Picture: AFP/Getty
The Biden administration recently entered into an agreement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to bolster the green energy supply chain, despite the DRC’s documented issues with child labour.
Cobalt initially “took off because it was used in lithium-ion batteries to maximise their charge and stability”, Prof Kara explained.
“And it just so happened that the Congo is sitting on more cobalt than the rest of the planet combined,” he added.
As a result, the Congo, a country of roughly 90 million people, became the centre of a geopolitical conflict over valuable minerals.
“Before anyone knew what was happening, [the] Chinese government [and] Chinese mining companies took control of almost all the big mines and the local population has been displaced,” Prof Kara said.
Subsequently, the Congolese are “under duress”.
“They dig in absolutely subhuman, gut-wrenching conditions for a dollar a day, feeding cobalt up the supply chain into all the phones, all the tablets, and especially electric cars,” he said.
British rapper Zuby recommended that his nearly one million followers watch the interview.
“This latest Joe Rogan Experience podcast is heavy,” he wrote. “If you have a smartphone or electric vehicle (that’s 100 per cent of you) then I strongly recommend listening to it.”
Some, if not all, of the famous tech and energy companies in the world are implicated in the humanitarian crisis, Prof Kara said.
“This is the bottom of the supply chain of your iPhone, of your Tesla, of your Samsung,” he said.
Editor’s note: Many new Tesla vehicles use cobalt-free technology.Interesting thoughts Carlos.
If memory serves me well ( happy to be corrected ), initially , in the early days, YIBIN offered $80 - 100m for 20% of AVZ, not AVZ / DATHCOM, which in turn got rejected by the FIRB.
For a " hostile take over" of AVZ , with FIRB bypassed, ZIJIN needs to gain control of AVZ DATHCOM......hence the two ICC arbitration cases in play with ZIJIN / DATHOMIR.............a collective 30% in play there.
Personally, ZIJIN / DATHOMIR dont have a hope in winning those 2 cases, given the available evidence, but if for some reason the statement " spurious in nature and with no material effect " doesnt hold up, then that would put a cat amongst the pigeons......which would then put the CATH JV under spot light.
What gets me is, CHINA as a whole ( SHENZEN , GANGFENG, CATH etc ) have a full uptake of supply, so why halt / delay the process of construction / production of RD ?
Well, IMO, its pretty clear, they want full control of MANONO so they can control the price of lithium world wide PLUS have ample supply.
Having a look at the AVZ top 20 register, a sobering thought is YIBIN / HUAYOU / BELLAMEL have a shit load of voting power..........I wonder what it would take to make BNP PARIBAS / CITICORP to look the other way..........
Add into the mix DRC govt debt to China via BELT & ROAD and China involvement in DRC as a whole for 30+ yrs, i have no doubt the screws are being applied
NIGEL can say what he wants, but in my mind, this extended suspension shit show is all about CONTROL..........by hook or by crook.
2023 is going to be pressure cooker scenario.
Lets hope good over comes evil !
imo
Carlos Danger
Top 20
The original deal was for 12%. Nigel said at the AGM that FIRB weren't happy with them having over 10% and crucially a seat on the board. The deal was amended to 9% and no seat on the board when they got that feedback from the Australian government.Interesting thoughts Carlos.
If memory serves me well ( happy to be corrected ), initially , in the early days, YIBIN offered $80 - 100m for 20% of AVZ, not AVZ / DATHCOM, which in turn got rejected by the FIRB.
For a " hostile take over" of AVZ , with FIRB bypassed, ZIJIN needs to gain control of AVZ DATHCOM......hence the two ICC arbitration cases in play with ZIJIN / DATHOMIR.............a collective 30% in play there.
Personally, ZIJIN / DATHOMIR dont have a hope in winning those 2 cases, given the available evidence, but if for some reason the statement " spurious in nature and with no material effect " doesnt hold up, then that would put a cat amongst the pigeons......which would then put the CATH JV under spot light.
What gets me is, CHINA as a whole ( SHENZEN , GANGFENG, CATH etc ) have a full uptake of supply, so why halt / delay the process of construction / production of RD ?
Well, IMO, its pretty clear, they want full control of MANONO so they can control the price of lithium world wide PLUS have ample supply.
Having a look at the AVZ top 20 register, a sobering thought is YIBIN / HUAYOU / BELLAMEL have a shit load of voting power..........I wonder what it would take to make BNP PARIBAS / CITICORP to look the other way..........
Add into the mix DRC govt debt to China via BELT & ROAD and China involvement in DRC as a whole for 30+ yrs, i have no doubt the screws are being applied
NIGEL can say what he wants, but in my mind, this extended suspension shit show is all about CONTROL..........by hook or by crook.
2023 is going to be pressure cooker scenario.
Lets hope good over comes evil !
imo
As for Zijin owning AVZ or AVZ / Dathcom my thought process is if they buy out AVZ they automatically control all assets of AVZ including 75% of Dathcom. They can just run AVZ as a private subsidiary if need be if there are issues with the ownership name for getting the licence under the DRC mining code. Not that anyone at CAMI cares about the rules anyway.
I originally wrote another section to my post that included my concerns about some of our top 20 joining in with Zijin. I left a little clue when I said 'get others to vote with them'. The rivalry between Zijin and CATL is legit. I'm sure both companies would prefer the other to not be involved. But I'm sure they would also toe the party line if Beijing cracked the whip. Control is the ultimate goal.
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Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....
However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.
But seriously , how can that really work ?
AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.
I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............
It never happened, now here we are.
That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......
Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.
Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.
Pull your finger out FT before its too late.
2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!
imo
The nige said that the last cr was predominantly going to be taken up by us,euro and Australian investors. What a crop of shit. Can anyone tell me that the nige didn't understand the share holdings of China in this company? Of cause he did. So what happens now? Fuck knows but the Chinese will definitely be having a huge say in it. One way or another.Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....
However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.
But seriously , how can that really work ?
AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.
I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............
It never happened, now here we are.
That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......
Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.
Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.
Pull your finger out FT before its too late.
2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!
View attachment 25332
imo
Carlos Danger
Top 20
The only way now that anyone can legally control Manono is if they buy out AVZWell there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....
However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.
But seriously , how can that really work ?
AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.
I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............
It never happened, now here we are.
That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......
Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.
Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.
Pull your finger out FT before its too late.
2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!
View attachment 25332
imo
Think back to the original Boatman / AFR / Chinese news articles about Zijin's claims that they 'bought' the 15% of Dathcom from Cominiere. The sheer obnoxious gloating that no one would have over 50% and control the project. Little Tommy was wetting himself with excitement so much he forgot to tell his readers that the CATL deal could be amended.
Although at that stage all the market had been told was that CATL had waived all conditions (including getting the mining licence). So nice of them to just want to get the deal done at 24%. Luckily someone was thinking outside the box. Nigel first mentioned the possibility that CATL were willing to accept 9% a few weeks after I suggested it in this forum.
If Zijin (or any other overseas entity) buys out AVZ and takes it private then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB to consider because the deposit isn't in Australia imo. Hopefully we never need to find out.
The other thing to consider about FIRB's opposition to Yibin Tianyi is that decision was made at the height of the trade war tensions between Australia and China caused by the fallout from ScoMo asking for an independent inquiry into the Wuhan Lab. I doubt Chalmers would have quite the same chip on his shoulder that Frydenberg had.
Our saving grace may be tax considerations. But considering AVZ International (which technically owns the 75% of Dathcom so running Dathcom through a private subsidiary is allowed under DRC law imo) is headquartered in Singapore (which has a corporate tax rate of 17% vs Australia's 30%) I'd say AVZ's current plan is to run all profits through there first.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this but the barbarians are at the gate imo
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Frank
Top 20
Speaking of "There"
Found this over there, thought I'd share it here, as it seems rather apt here, Not there imo
Food for thought for Shits & Giggles on the long and winding road to Manono
Cheers
Frank
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