“With the new metals super-cycle looming, nationalist measures are understandable” (Louis-Nino Kansoun)
Creation date: October 25, 2022 04:10
(Ecofin Agency) - Mexico has decided to nationalize its entire lithium sector, hoping to make better use of this essential resource for the new electric battery industry. Louis-Nino Kansoun, author of the report “The temptation of nationalism and
the nationalization of resources in Africa”, explains to us how this Mexican experience can be of interest to African mining countries.
Agence Ecofin: Can you explain the context around this decision by Mexico to nationalize its lithium industry?
Louis-Nino Kansoun:Mexico's decision to nationalize its lithium resources bears the seal of a man, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador who came to power in December 2018. This is not the first time that he has distinguished himself by his nationalist wills. Earlier this year, in April, the Chamber of Deputies rejected a reform that proposed to increase the share of the electricity market managed by the public sector from 38% to 54%. The opposition had opposed this project by noting several negative impacts on the sector. It was a few days after the rejection of this reform project that the one on the nationalization of lithium resources was adopted, granting the Mexican State exclusive rights to the exploration and exploitation of this raw material, but also the administration and control of economic value chains. Following the nationalization, the country more recently created, in August, a public company to manage its lithium resources, which, according to the data published in our report
"How Africa is Seizing the Opportunities Offered by Lithium", are part of the world's top 10.
AE: You explain that with the outlook for the lithium market, several African countries could be tempted to do like Mexico. Are there examples in Africa of public mining companies which have succeeded and which bring more to their country than private exploitations?
LNK: The first example that comes to mind is OCP, which is 95% owned by the Moroccan state. The Office Cherifien des Phosphates has been exploiting Morocco's vast phosphate resources for many years and its great contribution to the country's economy is beyond doubt. Phosphate is one of Morocco's main export products with 44 billion dirhams in 2015 out of a total of 366 billion dirhams of exports. Today, OCP is the largest producer of phosphate and its derivatives, with almost 30% of the world market and the second largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in the world.
“ The Office Cherifien des Phosphates has been exploiting Morocco's vast phosphate resources for many years and its great contribution to the country's economy is beyond doubt. »
Public companies that have succeeded, there are still some when we examine the history of the African mining sector. At one point in its history, the Congolese company Gécamines, for example, dominated the production of copper and cobalt.
At one point in its history, the Congolese public company Gécamines dominated the production of copper and cobalt.
At its peak, its tax payments to the state exceeded $350 million a year. Today, like Gécamines, several public mining companies are seen as problem companies and without great capacity, but this has not always been the case.
AE: Do African states have the financial and technical capacity to manage an entire industry like lithium?
LNK: You are talking about the two main obstacles that African countries would face if they chose the path of nationalization for a resource like lithium. Before marketing lithium, several years of work and investment are needed. The chain includes, for all mining raw materials, years of exploration, work to delineate a deposit, studies to assess the economic viability of mining, and then mining itself. Hardly a few mining exploration projects lead to exploitation, which gives an idea of the uncertainty and risk inherent in this activity. If an African country decides to manage its own lithium sector, the question of technical capacities will inevitably arise. Some work in the life cycle of a mine requires a highly skilled workforce. Assuming that this potential obstacle is overcome, the question of financial capacities is even more difficult to solve.
“ Even the Mexican president had to water down his wine a little by recently acknowledging that the country will not have sufficient means for the exploitation of lithium to be carried out solely by the public entity. »
Even the Mexican president had to put a little water in his wine by recently acknowledging that the country will not have sufficient means for the exploitation of lithium to be done solely by the public entity. He is considering private sector help, as he says it would require “a lot of investment”. To get an idea of the order of magnitude, to operate the Manono mine in the DRC with an annual production capacity of 700,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate (SC6) and 45,375 tonnes of primary lithium sulphates, AVZ Minerals indicated that it will require an initial investment of more than $545 million.
AE: In recent years, to increase their mining revenues, some African states have instead played the card of tax pressure on companies. With what result?
LNK: Yes, in recent years we have witnessed a rise in resource nationalism in Africa, with states all sharing the same desire to derive greater benefit from the exploitation made of the wealth of their subsoil. Several countries have revised or attempted to revise their mining charters, we can cite for example the cases of the DRC, Mali, etc. If each time they came up against protests from companies present in the sector, several of these reforms ended up passing after months of negotiation. But beyond increases in taxes and royalties, some countries put pressure on companies to develop a local processing industry. With the new metals super-cycle looming according to many analysts, these nationalistic measures are understandable.
AE: Can nationalization be a solution to better manage the artisanal mining sector and put an end to the trafficking it generates in the fields of gold, diamonds, coltan, etc.? ?
LNK: There are so many problems in the mining sector in Africa that it would not be difficult to find new roles for public companies beyond the simple control of State participation in mines, as is the current case in some countries. The issue of illegal artisanal mining is precisely one of these problems. According to an OECD report published in 2018, the combined artisanal and small-scale gold production of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger would be around 50 tonnes per year, most of it being exported illegally.
“According to an OECD report published in 2018, the combined artisanal and small-scale gold production of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger would be around 50 tonnes per year, most of it being exported illegally. »
Public companies that help States in their desire to better control artisanal mining, it is therefore quite possible. In the DRC, for example, the State created by decree in 2019 the General Cobalt Company (EGC, editor's note), a company responsible for buying all Congolese artisanal production of cobalt, in order to fight against illegal exports and participate in the formalization of artisanal operations. The creation of this company, despite the difficulties encountered by the EGC since the launch of its activities in 2021, has something to inspire other African countries in their desire to better control the artisanal mining sector. In any case, public mining companies do not have to be automatically opposed to private mining companies
Le Mexique a décidé de nationaliser l’ensemble de sa filière lithium, en espérant tirer un meilleur profit de cette ressource indispensable pour la
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