AVZ Discussion 2022

whales

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Frank

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Move over gold, lithium is the safe haven now

Lithium stocks continue to outperform the broader metals cohort as investors look desperately for a place to stash their cash.

Lithium prices continue to climb new heights and experts aren’t shocked one bit

A commodities expert says its unclear what China can do to put the brakes on lithium prices with EV sales continuing to grow, as Pilbara Minerals sets yet another record price for lithium raw materials.

Last week’s ninth auction on the Pilgangoora miner’s Battery Material Exchange bidding platform scored a haul of US$6988/t for a 5000t cargo of 5.5% pure spodumene concentrate.

Given pricing is typically done on a 6% Li2O (lithium oxide) benchmark, the actual take effectively was US$7708/t as the processor who bought the more than $50 million package will need to remove more waste.

That is processed into one of two general lithium chemicals for electric vehicle batteries, lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate, both fetching more than US$70,000/t in the domestic market in China.

It’s an extraordinary outcome given PLS was selling contracted spodumene, the lithium rich concentrate produced at hard rock deposits in WA, for less than US$500/t this time in 2020, a mark of how quickly the EV sector has grown.

Clearly converters in China and elsewhere in South East Asia remain far more worried about securing supply than their material costs, with EV sales continuing to expand.

“The continuing escalations in prices for both lithium salts and spodumene are a clear reminder that we are still very much in the grips of a major supply shortage, which shows little sign of abating in the near-term,” Fastmarkets senior price development manager Peter Hannah told Stockhead.

Hannah is hardly shocked by the scale of this month’s escalation, which pounded like a pogo stick from August’s implied price of US$7,012/t.

“I don’t think we should be too surprised. These prices are merely a reflection of market conditions and what the marginal buyer is willing to pay,” he said.

“So long as there is still an incentive to produce EVs at these price levels there is no real reason for them to fall until we see a meaningful supply response.

“Demand destruction is a potential concern, but for the time being EV demand is still being driven by affluent early-adopters, and there are still long queues for most EV models.”


Fastmarkets currently says lithium carbonate is selling domestically on China’s spot market at a mid-point of 517,500 RMB and hydroxide for 515,000 RMB, ~US$72,600/t and US$72,500/t respectively.

At prices above 500,000RMB per tonne Chinese authorities have tended to ring the bells on “stablilisation”, a bit of a code word for when the Communist Party thinks prices of commodities sold into the country from Australia like lithium and iron ore are too damn high.

This is again unsurprising and something Hannah says it is unclear whether China will be able to get a handle on.

“I think China’s MIIT has something of a line in the sand at the 500,000 yuan per tonne level, as we’ve seen comments urging stabilisation whenever prices have touched that level,” he said.

“We are already through that level in the domestic market though, and what it can actually do to subdue prices is unclear.”

Back in red hot lithium form​

The hammering local lithium stocks copped in the wake of Goldman’s wrecking ball report has given way to their biggest boom yet.

Lithium partnerships aplenty as car manufacturers race towards EV transition

Against the backdrop of sky-high lithium prices, which saw EXW China (battery) amounts top US$71,575 recently – lithium partnerships are beginning to pop-up all over the shop as carmakers and battery manufacturers catch on to the idea that there is simply not enough of the stuff to go around.

As Stockhead deputy editor Reuben Adams reported, we need more than 300 new mines to feed a 500% increase in battery demand by 2035 – for lithium specifically, this means roughly 74 new lithium mines with an average size of 45,000 tonnes.

Securing access to critical minerals for batteries has therefore become ever more important amid the global automakers expedited transition to EVs.


One recent example of this is South Korea’s electronics giant LG Energy Solution who signed partnership agreements with three major Canadian miners to lock in lithium and cobalt supply last Friday.

In a bid to establish a battery supply chain within North America, LGES revealed collaborations with NASDAQ listed Electra Battery Materials Corporation and Snow Lake Resources as well as with TSX player Avalon Advanced Materials Inc at a ceremony held in Toronto, Canada.

Two non-binding MoUs were signed with Snow Lake Resources and Avalon for a stable supply of lithium while a binding term sheet was locked in with Electra for 7,000t of cobalt sulphate for three years starting in 2023.

Avalon will supply LGES with lithium hydroxide(11,000 tons per year) for five years initially, starting in 2025 whereas Snow Lake will supply lithium hydroxide (20,000 tons per year) for ten years once production starts in 2025.

As a leading global manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, LGES has been at the forefront in securing key raw materials for EV battery production, inking multiple agreements and MoUs with various suppliers.

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More Food for thought on the Road to Mining Manono :unsure:

Cheers 🤞

Frank :cool:
 
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ptlas

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FFS Frank,

You post so much good stuff, I can hardly keep up with all of the implications
 
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Frank

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FFS Frank,

You post so much good stuff, I can hardly keep up with all of the implications
*Fyi, some more "Good Stuff" to add to all the other stuff, good luck keeping up with all the implications, as

Volkswagen teams up with Umicore on battery materials

Volkswagen announced on Monday a $2.9 billion battery parts joint venture with Belgian materials firm Umicore, becoming the latest European automaker to bring battery supplies closer to home in the shift towards electric vehicles.
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While raw materials – among them lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese – will still be largely sourced from across the world, cathode production for batteries will take place in Europe under the joint venture, most likely at Umicore’s Poland plant.

The venture – between Umicore and Volkswagen’s battery unit PowerCo – also plan to collaborate on recycling metals from battery materials, the firms said, without giving a timeframe.

Europe’s automakers are scrambling to secure stakes in the growing number of plants on the continent turning raw materials into batteries as political pressure grows to bring the supply chain, currently dominated by Asian players, closer to home.

Volkswagen is aiming for 70% of its sales in Europe to be fully electric vehicles by 2030, and is increasingly trying to fence in its supply chains by region to protect them from geopolitical tensions and reduce transport costs.

But Europe’s battery industry is still in its infancy, with attempts to mine raw material in countries from Germany to Portugal held up by red tape and recycling facilities unable to develop at scale without the raw material on hand.


Under the 3 billion euro ($2.9 billion) joint venture, which the companies flagged in December, Umicore will produce enough battery precursor and cathode material for 160 gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery capacity – enough for 2.2 million vehicles.

It will start with material for 40 GWh of capacity by 2026 at Volkswagen’s first battery plant in Salzgitter, Germany. The carmaker plans to build six battery factories in Europe totalling 240 GWh of capacity by 2030.

There is a “strong industrial logic” to locating production at Umicore’s newly inaugurated battery materials plant in Nysa, Poland, Umicore CEO Mathias Miedreich said, adding a decision would be taken “rather quickly”.

Umicore said last week it saw potential to increase the capacity of the plant, which began production in July, to over 200 GWh in the second half of the decade, enough to power around three million electric vehicles.

The companies also agreed that Umicore would refine cathode material for the first 60 GWh of capacity.

mining.com
 
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cruiser51

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"The descent into hell of the "special" Vidiye Tshimanga will certainly have consequences for his neighbor at the CTC, Jean-Félix Mupande."
🤞🤞🤞
If I was Vidiye Tshimanga, I wouldn't feel very comfy in jail anywhere in the world, too much money, too much interests and too many people would love to shut him up before he sings too much.
Just a thought, in certain circles life is cheap.
 
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Goat

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Any words on the street why we are doing that?
Coz we are building a great big giant fuk-off-mine full of juicy spod that the world can't get enough of.
 
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CashKing

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FFS Frank,

You post so much good stuff, I can hardly keep up with all of the implications
FFS Frank I’ve got heaps of gold also….
I’m like yesssss but wait noooo…

Man I can’t win sometimes with those articles wtf 😂

Can’t we just have Lithium, gold & silver for the win 👍 and move over going to work or something 😂 🍻 🙏

That’s an article I’d love to read over and over again..

Weathers warming up a tad let’s hope AVZ are doing the same.

GLTAH
 
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Onthefm

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I understand for AVZ to move forward there are issues involving corruption that need to be sorted . However I'm curious to know why some people think corruption in the DRC as a whole needs to be cleaned up before the ML would be granted ? We are in a specific situation . The idea that the DRC has to fix all issues before we can get the go ahead is absurd .

If I was Vidiye Tshimanga, I wouldn't feel very comfy in jail anywhere in the world, too much money, too much interests and too many people would love to shut him up before he sings too much.
Just a thought, in certain circles life is cheap.
Don't think so mate to important for the bosses re election. Christ the other bloke walked away 50 mil in gold and Christ knows what else but you can bet it was shit loads. But couldn't give fuck all we want is the ml not that hard you would think. The bat is right just sort our ml then go berserk on corruption while your making money. Jesus is that concept that hard for these pricks to comprehend. These pricks are doing my fu%^ing head in.
 
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cruiser51

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Don't think so mate to important for the bosses re election. Christ the other bloke walked away 50 mil in gold and Christ knows what else but you can bet it was shit loads. But couldn't give fuck all we want is the ml not that hard you would think. The bat is right just sort our ml then go berserk on corruption while your making money. Jesus is that concept that hard for these pricks to comprehend. These pricks are doing my fu%^ing head in.
I wouldn't be surprised if a certain Simon would like him to permanently be silenced.
A paper bag with 5 sweet potatoes will highly likely do the trick in jail.
 
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Samus

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It's a full blown culture of corruption they just think they're doing what everyone does, even the regular people seem have a bizzare sense that's it's sort of OK because it's just what everyone does. I guess they would do it too if they were in a position to do so. So there seems to be a level of sympathy for the corrupt who are caught and not much sense of injustice when they also get off pretty much scot-free as should be expected when they can pay off the judge.
I don't think they even think about it in the same terms as us.
The cops don't get paid so they extort money out of the people as do the military and everyone else in public office/government or any sort of position of power. I'm not even sure you'd call it extortion, just the way of things. It's mental.
One article I posted a while back was saying that the traffic cops in Kinshasa who are straight are beloved by the people and so receive 'gifts' instead of bribes. :rolleyes:
I bet it's an alien concept over there that some foreign company can come in and receive anything without paying off the appropriate officials.
 
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Onthefm

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It's a full blown culture of corruption they just think they're doing what everyone does, even the regular people seem have a bizzare sense that's it's sort of OK because it's just what everyone does. I guess they would do it too if they were in a position to do so. So there seems to be a level of sympathy for the corrupt who are caught and not much sense of injustice when they also get off pretty much scot-free as should be expected when they can pay off the judge.
I don't think they even think about it in the same terms as us.
The cops don't get paid so they extort money out of the people as do the military and everyone else in public office/government or any sort of position of power. I'm not even sure you'd call it extortion, just the way of things. It's mental.
One article I posted a while back was saying that the traffic cops in Kinshasa who are straight are beloved by the people and so receive 'gifts' instead of bribes. :rolleyes:
I bet it's an alien concept over there that some foreign company can come in and receive anything without paying off the appropriate officials.
Mate imo your dead right worked in indo late 80s to late 90s for big time aus us and euro oil and gas company jobs the client didn't pay anyone from my knowledge. But by fuck we all did and I mean every contractor no matter how big ( won't mention names obviously) but everyone knows the culprits are the biggest euro and us maincons in the world to small subcontractors like myself. But shit dose get built obviously and cheaper than in aus,us,or Europe. Although i haven't worked in Africa id imagine its similar. So stop fucking around with the ml. And let the construction corporation begin. everyone makes money. Is it that hard?
 
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Frank

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*How Ironic is it that here in Australia we are dealing with the same / similar shit as the DRC atm, as

Australia to create national anti-corruption watchdog

www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-create-national-anti-corruption-watchdog-2022-09-27/

*To remind,

Australia's NSW state premier resigns over corruption probe amid COVID-19 battle

Berejiklian is the second NSW premier to resign because of an ICAC investigation. NSW leader Barry O'Farrell quit in 2014 after giving evidence in which he forgot to tell the commission he had accepted a gift of a $3,000 bottle of Grange wine.

Berejiklian said she had told ministers in her government if they were the subject of an integrity investigation they should stand aside until their name was cleared, but in her case, as premier this wasn't an option. She will leave parliament as soon as a by-election can take place.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said she had "displayed heroic qualities" as premier, while former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull wrote on Twitter that she was a dedicated reformer who had "led the State bravely and tirelessly through the bushfires and the pandemic".

Berejiklian gave evidence at an ICAC hearing 12 months ago, and denied any wrong doing.

ICAC on Friday said the scope of its investigation had widened and includes whether between 2012 and 2018 Berejiklian "engaged in conduct that constituted or involved a breach of public trust by exercising public functions in circumstances where she was in a position of conflict between her public duties and her private interest" as she was in a personal relationship with the then NSW MP Daryl Maguire.

The potential breach involved grant funding promised to community organisations in Maguire's electorate of Wagga Wagga, and whether she failed to report, or encouraged, corrupt conduct by Maguire. Maguire's legal representative declined to comment.

Maguire told the same wide-ranging inquiry last year he had received envelopes full of thousands of dollars in cash at his parliament office as part of a scheme for Chinese nationals to fraudulently acquire visas, and had also tried to make money from his position as chairman of the parliament's Asia Pacific Friendship Group by promoting a series of Chinese business deals in the Pacific islands.


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Hudnut

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Except our dumbass pollies will get caught for receiving thousands of dollars, while in the DRC they get millions.
You get a better class of corrupt official in the DRC.
 
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ptlas

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Mate imo your dead right worked in indo late 80s to late 90s for big time aus us and euro oil and gas company jobs the client didn't pay anyone from my knowledge. But by fuck we all did and I mean every contractor no matter how big ( won't mention names obviously) but everyone knows the culprits are the biggest euro and us maincons in the world to small subcontractors like myself. But shit dose get built obviously and cheaper than in aus,us,or Europe. Although i haven't worked in Africa id imagine its similar. So stop fucking around with the ml. And let the construction corporation begin. everyone makes money. Is it that hard?
Too many unknown unknowns to put my finger on it, but my gut tells me that US interests are holding this up
 
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Xerof

Biding my Time 1971
If I was Vidiye Tshimanga, I wouldn't feel very comfy in jail anywhere in the world, too much money, too much interests and too many people would love to shut him up before he sings too much.
Just a thought, in certain circles life is cheap.
He’s been provisionally released.
 
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wombat74

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LOCKY82

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Cath extension tomorrow?
 
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Winenut

Go AVZ!
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wombat74

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Next 6 Announcements : Cath extension , AGM notice , Suspension extension , Drill results , Suspension extension , Cath extension .
1 month extensions taking us up to Xmas break . Unless Fox or Nells have heard something to the contrary of course .
AIMO
 
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