AVZ Discussion 2022

[DiscoDanNZ]

We also stand to lose from a takeover in the long term.

Not sure why we're entertaining the thoughts of a takeover. You got to ask yourself, have the fundamentals changed in the COmpany so significantly that you are uncomfortable to continue holding? IF so - you may wish to revisit your holdings.

Myself: nothing has changed significantly, imo.

Exactly, my guess for the recurring takeover chat is boredom sparked by the occasional cat amongst the pidgeons post.

Here's my personal position on this stock:

I don't hold a huge amount compared to a lot of people here however AVZ is around 70% of my total exposure to the stock market. Because I believe in it and I wouldn't have put that much in if I didn't think it was worth it. Nothing has changed for me in the fundamentals to make me question my investment other than the current issues which I believe Nigel when he uses words like nefarious and meritless to describe. Basically the DRC needs to stop shitting in their own backyard and sort this out.

Financially for me a takeover means a sizeable chunk of my mortgage is gone. Mid-term (call it a 5 -10 year time frame) and no takeover of AVZ for me means I'm mortgage free and reaping healthy dividends (hopefully). Long-long term (say LOM) I'm retiring early even with my relatively small outlay. I could have invested a lot more as the price rose but part of me really liked seeing the profit % on my 12c average.

I think a lot of holders see themselves in a similar position as me but I'm not going to speak for everyone.

 

[Frank]

As an Aussie it's hard to read articles like the one in the AFR today:-

AFR Article

In summary it says Australian miners of Lithium will struggle to make batteries and that we're coming from a long way behind in trying to make it work. Later in the article, Greenbushes is mentioned - I found this interesting.....

As a holder of AVZ I am heartened by the article later states battery or OEM customers are asking "when can I have more and where can I get it?".....

Time for DRC to stop the overseas juggernauts and focus on the Battery Council to help mitigate the perceived "geopolitical risk".

Not long now folks.
TC.

Lithium prices send battery metals stocks on a mission to the moon​

Lithium stocks were the toast of the terrace today as West Australian lithium miners led the ASX materials sector to a 0.79% gain after one of the main price reporting agencies recorded lithium carbonate prices smashing the 500,000 Yuan barrier for the first time in China.

That was around US$71,315/t on Friday, according to Asian Metal, although other agencies have reported them higher.

That’s a more than tripling of prices over the last year according to Bloomberg, with continued shortages of supply for the lithium ion battery input showing why miners are trading at record highs right now.

Some which mine other commodities, like $13 billion iron ore and mining services play Mineral Resources, are even looking at spinouts, with analysts suggesting Chris Ellison’s company could extract more value ($17b) from a lithium spinout than its entire business.

The news also coincided with a visit to Australia by American lithium giant Albemarle, which divulged that it was looking to double the production capacity of its US$1.2 billion plus lithium hydroxide plant in Kemerton in WA’s South West.

Albemarle’s lithium president Eric Norris told The Australian prices would remain high this decade.

“It’s unlike any market that any of us have ever participated in the chemical industry or in the mining industry,” he said.

“The sheer magnitude of the shift that came out of the pandemic – from consumer preferences to government policies in China, the US and Europe – to incentivise the adoption of electric vehicles has been incredible. And then that’s been followed through by every single major automotive manufacturer around the world.”

Cue a run for local stocks.

Food for thought on the Road to Mining Manono Bro

GLTAH's

Cheers

Frank

 

[Remark]

As an Aussie it's hard to read articles like the one in the AFR today:-

AFR Article

In summary it says Australian miners of Lithium will struggle to make batteries and that we're coming from a long way behind in trying to make it work. Later in the article, Greenbushes is mentioned - I found this interesting.....

As a holder of AVZ I am heartened by the article later states battery or OEM customers are asking "when can I have more and where can I get it?".....

Time for DRC to stop the overseas juggernauts and focus on the Battery Council to help mitigate the perceived "geopolitical risk".

Not long now folks.
TC.

Here's a site that comes in handy sometimes, I'll just leave this here....

12ft

 

[Samus]

I'm pretty sure TO talk stems almost solely from the apparent ineptitude of the DRC and the lack of trust associated with it. These bastards need to pull their finger out and make a concrete stance on advancing the project. AVZ is ready and loosing valuable time. The endless unnecessary delays are exasperating and it is costing all involved one way or another. We need certainty moving forward. 12 months delay is already significant and who knows what's being held back out of necessity behind the scenes.
It really beggars belief why we should be in this position at this stage.
There have been a few noises made about after the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations.
Let's hope they amount to something.

 

[John25]

Not yet ..... but getting there fast

 

[wombat74]

Should be a notice for the AGM soon . It's going to be a doozy this year . I'd pay an admission fee to go to this one .

 

[Doc]

Should be a notice for the AGM soon . It's going to be a doozy this year . I'd pay an admission fee to go to this one . It will be a full house .

Wait until you see the performance shares they asking for!

 

[wombat74]

Wait until you see the performance shares they asking for!

View attachment 17032

 

[TDITD]

Should be a notice for the AGM soon . It's going to be a doozy this year . I'd pay an admission fee to go to this one .

They should put it on zoom

 

[wombat74]

They should put it on zoom

I'll be impressed if they even show up .

 

[John25]

Still have my invitation & suit already too go for the special SH meeting we were having .....was looking forward to a free snack or two

 

[Remark]

Still have my invitation & suit already too go for the special SH meeting we were having .....was looking forward to a free snack or two

BYO paper bags

 

[marksmann007]

I'm pretty sure TO talk stems almost solely from the apparent ineptitude of the DRC and the lack of trust associated with it. These bastards need to pull their finger out and make a concrete stance on advancing the project. AVZ is ready and loosing valuable time. The endless unnecessary delays are exasperating and it is costing all involved one way or another. We need certainty moving forward. 12 months delay is already significant and who knows what's being held back out of necessity behind the scenes.
It really beggars belief why we should be in this position at this stage.
There have been a few noises made about after the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations.
Let's hope they amount to something.

I personally don’t mind takeover talk, even better a bidding war between multiple parties showing their hand would be beneficial to the SP.
We can decline cheap offers & AVZ moves forward with mine development.

If a TO bid was put forward before we resume trading once the ML was awarded for $1.50 we sure as hell wont be trading at 78c.
Personally I’d take $2.50 and walk away from this DRC shit show now even knowing it’s worth many times that value once in production.

I’ve still got no idea how this thing will trade once it opens even if we come through with all the boxes ticked.
Many holders must be mentally drained from this whole debacle.
It is encouraging though to see the large increase in market caps on other lithium stocks.

I’m disgusted the way AVZ & Nigel has been treated by the DRC, watching us falling out of the ASX 200 with these delays, destroy our planning & timelines with another 5+ months of delays waiting for CAMI to sign off on the ML but instead some moron decides to try & illegally cut our tenements.

Is this how you treat a genuine brown paper bag free business partner?
Doesn’t really reward good behaviour or send much of a message to the rest of the world does it?

How can it take this long for high level government officials to sort out this clown at CAMI with so much at stake for the DRC?

 

[cruiser51]

BYO paper bags

 

[Remark]

Should be a notice for the AGM soon . It's going to be a doozy this year . I'd pay an admission fee to go to this one .

We should all go dressed like this...

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

Wait until you see the performance shares they asking for!

View attachment 17032

Surely they can't be that bloody to stupid to ask for any!

 

[grassseeds]

I sense that we have a discussion going on where we have comments on what is a possible result and what is a probable result. Yes, it is possible that all our dreams will come true and AVZ will obtain 90% of the project and onsell 24% to Cath and then go mining. One of the other probable alternatives is that AVZ will be forced to compromise on its options and accept a less favourable outcome.

AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.

I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.

AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)

AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.

AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?

I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.

Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.

With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.

My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.

Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.

Best of luck to all.

 

[cruiser51]

We should all go dressed like this...

View attachment 17038

AGM show bags:

However to be fair, we do not know what deals are being negotiated and made in the background.
I would be very surprised if Nigel is holed up in a backroom in Manono with a hessian bag over his head humming lalala, rolled up in the foetus position.

While companies are in negotiations, they do that behind closed doors until all is ready to be disclosed in the appropriate way.
The appropriate way is with respect for the DRC Government and other parties involved.
It is called confidentiality.
The ASX respects that process.

I personally do believe the tweet from AVZ's DRC lawyers that Zijin is out.
It was never denied by AVZ, neither was that post deleted.

Yes it is a long time, but it is better than being told: 'We tried hard, but couldn't stop Zijin'.
Having said that, there is of course still a remote possibility it heads that way, but my water tells me it is highly unlikely.

 

[John25]

AGM show bags:

View attachment 17040

However to be fair, we do not know what deals are being negotiated and made in the background.
I would be very surprised if Nigel is holed up in a backroom in Manono with a hessian bag over his head humming lalala, rolled up in the foetus position.

While companies are in negotiations, they do that behind closed doors until all is ready to be disclosed in the appropriate way.
The appropriate way is with respect for the DRC Government and other parties involved.
It is called confidentiality.
The ASX respects that process.

I personally do believe the tweet from AVZ's DRC lawyers that Zijin is out.
It was never denied by AVZ, neither was that post deleted.

Yes it is a long time, but it is better than being told: 'We tried hard, but couldn't stop Zijin'.
Having said that, there is of course still a remote possibility it heads that way, but my water tells me it is highly unlikely.

Theres a lot of background/backroom deals being done

 

[TDITD]

I sense that we have a discussion going on where we have comments on what is a possible result and what is a probable result. Yes, it is possible that all our dreams will come true and AVZ will obtain 90% of the project and onsell 24% to Cath and then go mining. One of the other probable alternatives is that AVZ will be forced to compromise on its options and accept a less favourable outcome.

AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.

I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.

AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)

AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.

AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?

I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.

Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.

With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.

My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.

Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.

Best of luck to all.

Bloody hell grassseeds I think you’ve been overwatered.

Possible an probable from your perspective, yet as I went on to read the rest of your post it was clear you haven’t dug too far with your research, not having a go as you may have 6 kids and two jobs just saying. For example China aren’t exactly flavour of the month in the DRC with Government or with IGF only with the well fed rats who are scurrying - hardly advantageous for the Chinese, in fact quite the opposite. There are many articles out of DRC that highlight this.

Zijin will be making offers with tantalex, that made me lol - Zijin just got caught red handed and read up on tantalex ceo it’ll make you laugh, so I’m sure anything that dream team put forward will be met with ‘Not got round to it yet’. Taking land off AVZ to give to the criminals is what you call probable yet AVZ 66% and CATH 24% is possible, dude it’s puff puff pass stop hogging the grass. Not to mention the illegality of taking our ground away, they are looking to become a mining player on the global map, that behaviour is Kabila no Felix.

As for Dathomir that was always a joke, Cong legally has no legs to stand on, yes I know blah blah corruption, it will set us back as we go higher up the chain if that happens so it’s a pain but end of the day it’s ours we paid for it and signed contracts years ago.

More is being made out of it all as it’s radio silence.

It makes much more sense that the DRC Gov and AVZ are in talks in regards to further 15% and SEZ with a bit of fanfare being made out of it once done (soon ) before coming out of suspension. To those that are trying to follow closely and join dots that is, rather than reading hot crapper wankers an trolls on the daily as that would be sure to influence one’s thinking however small or large.

Not having a pop grass just saying I reckon your off base an what I’ve been finding points to a more positive scenario for AVZ than your we will be lucky with 51% an some tenement taken scenario.

Guess we will see though
I’ll let ya shout me a beer when I’m right