AVZ Discussion 2022

[CeckRaiseFold]

I'm pretty sure TO talk stems almost solely from the apparent ineptitude of the DRC and the lack of trust associated with it. These bastards need to pull their finger out and make a concrete stance on advancing the project. AVZ is ready and loosing valuable time. The endless unnecessary delays are exasperating and it is costing all involved one way or another. We need certainty moving forward. 12 months delay is already significant and who knows what's being held back out of necessity behind the scenes.
It really beggars belief why we should be in this position at this stage.
There have been a few noises made about after the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations.
Let's hope they amount to something.

Everybody's investment situation in AVZ is different.
For some, including me, a TO for $1.50 - $2.00 makes perfect investment sense. If you have bought in for single digit cents you can make up to 40 or 50 times your original investment. It makes perfect rational sense for people to then want to cash in, no need to call it bull shit it is simply sound investing and taking profits. Making such a return is very rare and for some already life changing. You can then kick back and enjoy the cash or re-invest somewhere else in penny stocks trying to repeat it. From a level of $1.5 - $2 you will not see another 10 fold increase in AVZ soon if at all.

I sense that we have a discussion going on where we have comments on what is a possible result and what is a probable result. Yes, it is possible that all our dreams will come true and AVZ will obtain 90% of the project and onsell 24% to Cath and then go mining. One of the other probable alternatives is that AVZ will be forced to compromise on its options and accept a less favourable outcome.

AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.

I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.

AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)

AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.

AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?

I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.

Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.

With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.

My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.

Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.

Best of luck to all.

Grasseeds points out some other reasons why a TO now might not be a bad thing for many LTH who bought in low and why the offer will never be at the value some expect the company to be once mining.

Nobody would price a current TO for what an operating, possibly expanded, mine will be worth. There would be no incentive or upside value left for the entity doing the take over. Whilst they would be taking on the largest hard rock deposit in the world, they also take on large amounts of risks and uncertainties on the way to mining.

The reduced TO valuation allows for all the risk along the way to a completed and well operating mine. And those risks are large. Assume even for a minute corruption is rooted out at high level government and regulators which takes up the majority on this forum discussion. It is to be expected to be rife at all lower levels that a construction project would have to deal with, importing materials and equipment, access to sites, site security, wage demands, obtaining work permits, ensuring local jobs and forced use of local agents and contractors, etc, etc. I know, I have lived it myself in a neighbouring country. These constant challenges would be a drain on manpower and funds and will likely cause significant delays to the mine, the hydro electric plant the power transmission, the trucking operation, the rail operation, etc. To persevere it requires deep pockets, experience in building mines and major logistics and having productive networks in-country.

People who keep saying we're going mining soon, have not worked in West Africa and completely underestimate the massive undertaking this project is. For a company like AVZ it has the big risk of along the way needing to take on more debt, issue further capital raises or dilute project ownership, and possibly fend-off further coordinated scaremongering to supress the SP, all eroding the currently perceived future value or SP.
Do not overestimate AVZ's negotiation position, particularly after those very sobering and humbling last number of months. If realistic offers are rebuffed, TO candidates might very well say: "OK AVZ, good luck, we'll talk again once you run out of money or you're tied in red-tape and bribery knots".

So, yes, I would gladly take a $2 TO offer right now, write my resignation letter, reinvest some and thoroughly enjoy the rest! We all have our individual history and forward strategy/hopes with AVZ, this is mine.

 

[LOCKY82]

***URGENT UPDATE*** NONE OF US HAVE A BLOODY CLUE WHATS GOING ON! Bring on the avz asx announcements! pineapples at the ready! Maximize our shares ye b#*tards

 

[Winenut]

My taxi driver said the AGM is booked for Nov 1st (Anthony Kiedis' birthday)

However I suspect there may be a 2 week extension to the meeting date...

 

[Uglybob]

There is more rumour spreading and gum flapping in here than a CWA hall, and nowhere near as many scones.

At least most of it is semi-amusing but I think the lack of forth-coming information is doing some peoples heads in. Hopefully no-one in here is in deeper than they can handle, but based on some of the panicked comments this may not be the case...

Just sit back and crack a VB knowing that the next possible delay is imminent.

 

[Samus]

***URGENT UPDATE*** NONE OF US HAVE A BLOODY CLUE WHATS GOING ON! Bring on the avz asx announcements! pineapples at the ready! Maximize our shares ye b#*tards

 

[Peterg]

Hurry up. FFS

 

[LOCKY82]

There is more rumour spreading and gum flapping in here than a CWA hall, and nowhere near as many scones.

At least most of it is semi-amusing but I think the lack of forth-coming information is doing some peoples heads in. Hopefully no-one in here is in deeper than they can handle, but based on some of the panicked comments this may not be the case...

Just sit back and crack a VB knowing that the next possible delay is imminent.

Here here! Some people need to cool the beans! We've no idea what's going on I'm sure NF and the team have been working their arses off! It's in their interests too! "Avz have good legal title" have a beer or a spliff chill out and hold on

 

[antimatter]

Thing is..... I don't think if it happens it would work that way

Might be a vote and guidance from the board and yada yada yada but IF it's a TO I think it will be ....righto all you AVZ fuckers we're giving you a buck fiddy for the lot take it or leave it

Personally I don't want a TO

An enforced effective sell on my part crystallizes all profits and fuggers me royally in one financial year

I got bigger and more flexible returns I'm lookin' for on this on

My taxi driver said the AGM is booked for Nov 1st (Anthony Kiedis' birthday)

However I suspect there may be a 2 week extension to the meeting date...

 

[donkman]

2022 word of the year: imminent

All things considered including the things we don’t know yet

pitter patter, let’s get at er

 

[LOCKY82]

 

[Frank]

The lithium gain train is picking up steam on Choo-sday​

Stockhead’s Top 10 at 10, published at 10.30am each trading day, highlights the best (and worst) performing ASX stocks in morning trade using live data.

It’s a short, sharp update to help frame the trading day by showing the biggest movers in percentage terms.

The market opens at 10am (eastern time) and the data is taken at 10:15am, once every ASX stock has commenced trading.

Ragusa Minerals has nabbed another lithium exploration tenement in the NT.

The NT Lithium Project area is within the Litchfield Pegmatite Belt – host to discoveries including the neighbouring Core Lithium’s Finnis Project, Lithium Plus, Charger Metals and others and Lord Resources was granted the Horse Rocks lithium project near Kalgoorlie, with “high impact exploration imminent”.

We need to spend up to $US3 trillion on the lithium battery supply chain by 2040​

Benchmark Boss Simon Moores loves to tweet some lithium deets, last week flagging that we need close to 400 new lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite mines to feed a 500% increase in battery demand by 2035.

In the lead up to the Energy Disruptors conference in Calgary, Canada, Moores said today that it will cost $US1-$US3 trillion and take a generation to build a lithium-ion battery supply chain capable of supporting mass market EVs industry and energy storage systems.

Let that sink in for a sec.



This includes building critical minerals supply, cathodes and anodes as well as battery cells.

“Our estimates vary from $1Tr to $3Tr depending on scenarios,” Moores said.

“At the top end – $3Tr – is for a fully sustainable world by >2050.

“We are on a demand path to needing spending $1Tr by 2040.”

At this point, just inject lithium straight into our veins​

Miners pulled out two from two to start the week, recording a second straight day of gains to erase memories of last week’s dour finish.

The clear standout remains lithium stocks, and at this point just inject that mood stabiliser straight into our veins, OK.

Its gains upon gains for the battery metals sector, with more price agencies reporting higher prices in China after Asian Metal’s call last week.

Fastmarkets MB says Chinese domestic lithium carbonate prices lifted 5000RMB over the week to 515,000RMB/t, equivalent to US$73,430.86/t of $109,340.30/t Australian.

That is supporting hard rock miners, with spot spodumene prices at US$6750/t for benchmark 6% Li2O material.

There remain questions over how long lithium carbonate prices will be so high, with Fastmarkets noting recent power rationing in the Chinese province of Sichuan had seen converters draw heavily on stockpiles, supporting higher prices.

“Demand for lithium carbonate has always been weak, especially compared to that of lithium hydroxide. And consumers do have ongoing supply from South American lithium producers whose prices are lower than Chinese levels,” one Chinese lithium producer told the reporting agency.

Still, those sorts of prices are driving massive profits down the line in Australia, with investors betting more is to come.

The materials index was up 2.67% at 4.30pm AEDT, with Mineral Resources leading the large caps with a 5.26% gain.

Pilbara Minerals lifted late to a new all time high of $4.89, up 2.95%, with IGO and Allkem up 4.63% and 4.04%, respectively.

Rare earths bellwether Lynas and mid-tiers Nickel Industries, 29Metals, Syrah and Champion Iron were also among the strongest performers along with lithium co. Ioneer.

Food for thought DRC / Felix and Co as we wait for our ML @ Manono Bro

 

[wombat74]

For those who were hoping to load up on PLS when it pulled back to $1.97 in June but were unable to because you were trapped in the AVZ nightmare shit show , my deepest condolences .

 

[Remark]

2022 word of the year: imminent

All things considered including the things we don’t know yet

pitter patter, let’s get at er

Extra points for the Letterkenny reference

 

[Carlos Danger]

They should put it on zoom

I remember around this time last year someone on the crapper asking if anyone could imagine the AGM without AVZ having the mining license.

Most of the responders shouted them down for wrongthink and told them that Nigel said it was coming soon so no other discussion should be allowed.

One person jestingly replied if they meant 2021 or 2022. It's looking like every joke has its truth.

If we are still in suspension with no license at the AGM this year then zoom would be a waste of an opportunity. We could sell that pitchfork session for millions on pay per view.

 

[Samus]

President Felix Tshisekedi long-awaited speech at the 77th United Nations General Assembly​

septembre 19, 2022

The Head of State at the United Nations podium in September 2021

New York, September 19th, 2022 (CPA) – The speech that the President of the Republic Felix Antoine Tshisekedi will deliver from the top of the United Nations rostrum, during his 77th session of the Assembly, the inaugural day of which is scheduled for Tuesday, is eagerly awaited, CPA has learned from official sources.
His speech comes in a particular national context marked by the proven aggression of DRC by Rwanda, via M23; the Nairobi and Luanda peace processes as well as the turmoil over the mandate of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).
Disavowed by a population tired of seeing the Blue Helmets camped out in an observer position, without convincing results for two decades, UN mission awaits an honourable exit from its mandate. For all these issues, the President of the Republic expects, in his speech, to mobilize the international community and obtain from it multifaceted support and a clear response, it is announced.
The climate issue at the summit
As on every occasion those world leaders meet lately, the climate issue comes up in all speeches and we cannot discuss this issue without referring to DRC.
World leaders therefore expect from President Tshisekedi the presentation of the assets of DRC in this sector as a « country-solution », as well as a word on the production of strategic minerals, his State being the depositary of rare precious materials which particularly in the production of electric cars.
In his capacity as current President of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Head of State will appear at the United Nations platform with credible alternatives regarding the green economy and climate change.
Since the forests of Central Africa and the Congo Basin constitute a global lung, it is important that the Congolese Head of State demands, on behalf of the continent and his peers, compensation for the polluters who find themselves on the side of the countries industrialized.
The ball of speeches at the 77th session of the General Assembly will be opened this Tuesday, September 20th with the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, we are informed.
Welcome of the presidential couple upon their arrival in New York
The Head of State accompanied by the First Lady, Denise Nyakeru Tshisekedi, arrived in the early hours of Monday in New York. Deputy Prime Minister, Minister in charge of Foreign Affairs, Christophe Lutundula; his colleague in charge of Environment, Eve Bazaiba, the Ministers in charge of Finance Nicolas Kazadi and of Communication and Media, Patrick Muyaya, accompanied the President of the Republic to these meetings.
During the 76th General Assembly of the United Nations held in September 2021, in the same American city, the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, at the time Chairman-in-Office of the African Union, addressed in his speech several subjects, including the COVID-19 pandemic, global warming as well as terrorism in Africa and around the world.
Regarding DRC, President Felix Tshisekedi had focused in particular on the issue of the fight against corruption, human rights violations and security. On this subject, he had indicated that the state of siege established in the provinces of Ituri and Nord Kivu will only be lifted « when the circumstances which motivated it disappear », it is recalled. ACP/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/acpcongo.com/index.php/2022/09/19/president-felix-tshisekedi-long-awaited-speech-at-the-77th-united-nations-general-assembly/amp/

 

[Frank]

I personally don’t mind takeover talk, even better a bidding war between multiple parties showing their hand would be beneficial to the SP.
We can decline cheap offers & AVZ moves forward with mine development.

If a TO bid was put forward before we resume trading once the ML was awarded for $1.50 we sure as hell wont be trading at 78c.
Personally I’d take $2.50 and walk away from this DRC shit show now even knowing it’s worth many times that value once in production.

I’ve still got no idea how this thing will trade once it opens even if we come through with all the boxes ticked.
Many holders must be mentally drained from this whole debacle.
It is encouraging though to see the large increase in market caps on other lithium stocks.

I’m disgusted the way AVZ & Nigel has been treated by the DRC, watching us falling out of the ASX 200 with these delays, destroy our planning & timelines with another 5+ months of delays waiting for CAMI to sign off on the ML but instead some moron decides to try & illegally cut our tenements.

Is this how you treat a genuine brown paper bag free business partner?
Doesn’t really reward good behaviour or send much of a message to the rest of the world does it?

How can it take this long for high level government officials to sort out this clown at CAMI with so much at stake for the DRC?

*Ditto Bro, Well said, Nice to hear from you as well

All the Best

Cheers

Frank

 

[BEISHA]

I sense that we have a discussion going on where we have comments on what is a possible result and what is a probable result. Yes, it is possible that all our dreams will come true and AVZ will obtain 90% of the project and onsell 24% to Cath and then go mining. One of the other probable alternatives is that AVZ will be forced to compromise on its options and accept a less favourable outcome.

AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.

I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.

AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)

AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.

AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?

I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.

Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.

With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.

My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.

Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.

Best of luck to all.

First of all, welcome GRASSSEEDS to AVZ TSE forum !

" I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns "

I can tell ya...........the world is watching this cluster fuck with AVZ / DRC / ZIJIN......

If we ( AVZ ) have to compromise what is rightfully ours..............then any hope of DRC dragging in foreign investment other than China, is DOOMED.

Despite 30 ++yrs of China " investment " + corruption in DRC .........how is the countries finances going ?

Fucked.........they should be as rich as WA.

Felix and his regime has a once in a life time opportunity to turn the wheel............clean up the scum that betrayed their people by stealing via brown paper bags, send a message to China that proper protocol regards to future investment is required to realise the true worth for DRC.

Felix needs to make a statement on both of those fronts, he also needs to convince his own people that he is a DOER not a TALKER......or he will not win the next election, then the country is completely fucked.

What better statement to make by granting AVZ whats rightfully theirs, jail the corrupt perpertrators within the DRC Govt, give the bird to ZIJIN, tell Eckhoff to fuck off , grant the SEZ, grant the ML and get construction of ROCHE DURE done ASAP , which in turn will get the ball rolling to fulfill the BATTERY HUB dream.

Then , everyone will take Felix seriously, the common folk will believe, the foreign community will believe and China will have no choice but to be above board or................... miss out.

DRC will then thrive.

Time is running out Felix, IGF report is CLEAR, next election is 2023, the time to act and make a statement to the world........is NOW!


imo

 

[Frank]

First of all, welcome GRASSSEEDS to AVZ TSE forum !

" I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns "

I can tell ya...........the world is watching this cluster fuck with AVZ / DRC / ZIJIN......

If we ( AVZ ) have to compromise what is rightfully ours..............then any hope of DRC dragging in foreign investment other than China, is DOOMED.

Despite 30 ++yrs of China " investment " + corruption in DRC .........how is the countries finances going ?

Fucked.........they should be as rich as WA.

Felix and his regime has a once in a life time opportunity to turn the wheel............clean up the scum that betrayed their people by stealing via brown paper bags, send a message to China that proper protocol regards to future investment is required to realise the true worth for DRC.

Felix needs to make a statement on both of those fronts, he also needs to convince his own people that he is a DOER not a TALKER......or he will not win the next election, then the country is completely fucked.

What better statement to make by granting AVZ whats rightfully theirs, jail the corrupt perpertrators within the DRC Govt, give the bird to ZIJIN, tell Eckhoff to fuck off , grant the SEZ, grant the ML and get construction of ROCHE DURE done ASAP , which in turn will get the ball rolling to fulfill the BATTERY HUB dream.

Then , everyone will take Felix seriously, the common folk will believe, the foreign community will believe and China will have no choice but to be above board or................... miss out.

DRC will then thrive.

Time is running out Felix, IGF report is CLEAR, next election is 2023, the time to act and make a statement to the world........is NOW!


imo

*Ditto Bro, I concur, especially as you say ( They should be as rich as WA )

Been thinking the exact same thing myself tbo

Cheers

Frank

 

[Doc]

Plot twist; CDL tenement rights been taken off the DRC website because Nigel had it successfully removed under the joint venture and has now applied directly under AVZ Minerals.

What a dream that was

 

[whales]

First of all, welcome GRASSSEEDS to AVZ TSE forum !

" I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns "

I can tell ya...........the world is watching this cluster fuck with AVZ / DRC / ZIJIN......

If we ( AVZ ) have to compromise what is rightfully ours..............then any hope of DRC dragging in foreign investment other than China, is DOOMED.

Despite 30 ++yrs of China " investment " + corruption in DRC .........how is the countries finances going ?

Fucked.........they should be as rich as WA.

Felix and his regime has a once in a life time opportunity to turn the wheel............clean up the scum that betrayed their people by stealing via brown paper bags, send a message to China that proper protocol regards to future investment is required to realise the true worth for DRC.

Felix needs to make a statement on both of those fronts, he also needs to convince his own people that he is a DOER not a TALKER......or he will not win the next election, then the country is completely fucked.

What better statement to make by granting AVZ whats rightfully theirs, jail the corrupt perpertrators within the DRC Govt, give the bird to ZIJIN, tell Eckhoff to fuck off , grant the SEZ, grant the ML and get construction of ROCHE DURE done ASAP , which in turn will get the ball rolling to fulfill the BATTERY HUB dream.

Then , everyone will take Felix seriously, the common folk will believe, the foreign community will believe and China will have no choice but to be above board or................... miss out.

DRC will then thrive.

Time is running out Felix, IGF report is CLEAR, next election is 2023, the time to act and make a statement to the world........is NOW!


imo

F T has been exactly what you have suggested but with the backing of the legal system.
First he got cabinet members support then new judges and recent IGF report .
Obe Wan has given a good summary on hotcrapper.
IMO ÀVZ wants all issues resolved before trading again .
Hopefully the DG of CAMI is removed .
ALL IMO