TDITD
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Bloody hell grassseeds I think you’ve been overwatered.I sense that we have a discussion going on where we have comments on what is a possible result and what is a probable result. Yes, it is possible that all our dreams will come true and AVZ will obtain 90% of the project and onsell 24% to Cath and then go mining. One of the other probable alternatives is that AVZ will be forced to compromise on its options and accept a less favourable outcome.
AVZ is a small company, with limited capacity, limited experience, and no track record of operating a mine in DRC. On the other hand, there are numerous Chinese companies already operating in the DRC. The Chinese have invested billions, have networks of influence, and are prepared to pay to get what they want. We should all be able to see that trying to get what we believe are contractual rights processed, is difficult to achieve in the DRC environment.
I am assuming that AVZ is having difficulty in getting approval for the total area they appear to be entitled to. I suspect that this is the reason for the suspension. AVZ by being in suspension has benefits which include limits to short selling and helps to puts pressure back on the DRC officials to fix the problems. AVZ need to remain in suspension until they get at least the ML.
AVZ is now fighting on many fronts to stop the possible claim jumpers. I assume that Tantalex is pushing for access to not only surface rights to the dumps of material, but also arguing for total access to this area as well. One of their arguments will be that AVZ has more area than they can use now, and Tantalex can quickly get another mine in operation which will be a major benefit to DRC.
Klaus Ekhoff has many contacts ( including probably the ones he used to get AVZ's initial area ) and he will also be pushing for access to good Lithium areas.
Zijin will be making offers to support Tantalex or Klaus etc. Saving face is important to the Chinese and with their access to large amounts of capital, it is highly probable that they will be making takeover offers.
We also now have at least the Americans trying to get in the game. It would make sense if they could take a part of AVZ ( who will need the capital and also to dilute the large Chinese shareholding already in AVZ)
AVZ has outstanding problems such as the Dathomir issue, the Zijin arbitration, and CAMI playing hardball in finalising the ML. All of these problems could take some further months to complete.
AVZ has been waiting for about 12 months to try and get the ML. This by itself indicates that AVZ does not have the clout in the DRC to get these problems quickly sorted. Will CATH's involvement, or perhaps some European or American support help to eliminate the logjam?
I see the possibility that CATH may step in to assist AVZ in sorting out Dathomir to get their 24% finalised and AVZ holding 51%.
Only the DRC can sort out the ML and AVZ's land area. The comments about the Europeans and Americans with regard to cleaning up corruption before they invest should be positive for AVZ's claims.
With AVZ the David in the fight against Goliath, I suspect that we will have many more twists and turns before the dust settles.
My impression is that the project possibilities are so big that AVZ will be under constant pressure to sell its share in the project. With a large Chinese shareholding in AVZ, any official takeover offer by a Chinese company will be well supported.
Like all long-term shareholders, I would prefer AVZ to stay with the project and maximize shareholders returns. However, with a red hot lithium market, I expect some compromises which will reduce potential returns.
Best of luck to all.
Possible an probable from your perspective, yet as I went on to read the rest of your post it was clear you haven’t dug too far with your research, not having a go as you may have 6 kids and two jobs just saying. For example China aren’t exactly flavour of the month in the DRC with Government or with IGF only with the well fed rats who are scurrying - hardly advantageous for the Chinese, in fact quite the opposite. There are many articles out of DRC that highlight this.
Zijin will be making offers with tantalex, that made me lol - Zijin just got caught red handed and read up on tantalex ceo it’ll make you laugh, so I’m sure anything that dream team put forward will be met with ‘Not got round to it yet’. Taking land off AVZ to give to the criminals is what you call probable yet AVZ 66% and CATH 24% is possible, dude it’s puff puff pass stop hogging the grass. Not to mention the illegality of taking our ground away, they are looking to become a mining player on the global map, that behaviour is Kabila no Felix.
As for Dathomir that was always a joke, Cong legally has no legs to stand on, yes I know blah blah corruption, it will set us back as we go higher up the chain if that happens so it’s a pain but end of the day it’s ours we paid for it and signed contracts years ago.
More is being made out of it all as it’s radio silence.
It makes much more sense that the DRC Gov and AVZ are in talks in regards to further 15% and SEZ with a bit of fanfare being made out of it once done (soon ) before coming out of suspension. To those that are trying to follow closely and join dots that is, rather than reading hot crapper wankers an trolls on the daily as that would be sure to influence one’s thinking however small or large.
Not having a pop grass just saying I reckon your off base an what I’ve been finding points to a more positive scenario for AVZ than your we will be lucky with 51% an some tenement taken scenario.
Guess we will see though
I’ll let ya shout me a beer when I’m right
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