AVZ Discussion 2022

[Bin59]

According to Dwayne Sparks’ post on X lithium is predicted to go up exponentially… hopefully we won’t be undersold in any negotiations

x.com

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https://x.com/sparkes_dwayne


Dwayne Sparkes

@sparkes_dwayne

Haven’t really seen anyone’s take on CATL’s prospectus recently released (they are listing in Hong Kong), so thought I might give my quick thoughts on it! A lot can be gleamed from CATL’s prospectus.

Firstly, acknowledgement by the company that the profit margins have increased partly thanks to a reduction in LCE price.

Secondly, CATL’s growth estimates are enormous. The ESS estimates in particular are well above most analyst’s expectations. They have it at 300 GWh for 2024, 481GWh for 2025 & 1400 GWh for 2030… Let’s convert these numbers GWh to LCE tonnes to make it easier to understand and compare to demand tables. 1kWh = 0.75~0.8kg of LCE. 0.9kg of LCE per 1kWh used to be the number that analysts adopted, but batteries have become more efficient with time.

I've adopted 0.75kg off my latest data, but if anyone has a better number, please let me know. 1GWh = 1,000,000 kWh. 2025 – (481GWh * 1,000,000) *0.75kg = 360kt of LCE. 2030 - (1400GWh * 1,000,000) * 0.75kg = 1.05Mt of LCE. Compare this to the ESS numbers presented by UBS in 2024 for example (below screenshot). They had for 213kt of LCE 2025 and for 517kt of LCE 2030. So CATL’s numbers are almost double.

That’s a difference of 12~13 x the yearly output from a mine such as Kathleen Valley to put it into perspective. This is just ESS.

Another section of the prospectus that jumped out are the emerging applications. 390 GWh for this section by 2030. 390GWh x 0.75 = 292.5kt of LCE. ~3.5x greater than the 80 kt LCE UBS had listed for their "other Li-Ion demand" section. I’m not even going to bother doing the conversions on the 13 Twh by 2050 as it paints its own picture.

I think the above suggests the growth of lithium is exponential. I couldn’t tell you a commodity that has grown at this rate (and is expected to grow).

Can’t deny CATL is a fantastic company that is leading the way in battery tech. They do want to suppress the lithium price however and that makes sense as they are the world’s largest consumer of the stuff. I just don't see how it doesn't cause more harm than good and will lead to an explosion in lithium price (more detail on this on my other posts).

Thanks for reading.










12:11 PM · Feb 17, 2025
·
45.3K
Views

 

[Remark]

Grok's opinion as to whether Trump will help AVZ's position.

"It’s difficult to predict with certainty whether Donald Trump will directly intervene or influence the AVZ Minerals situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it depends on his administration’s priorities, foreign policy approach, and the specific circumstances surrounding the issue. However, I can provide some context and reasoning to help frame the possibilities.
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, has been entangled in a complex dispute over the Manono Lithium Project in the DRC, one of the world’s largest undeveloped lithium deposits. The situation involves legal battles, allegations of corruption, and competing claims from Chinese firms and other stakeholders, all set against the backdrop of the DRC’s mineral-rich but politically unstable eastern region. As of early 2025, the project remains stalled due to these conflicts, with the DRC government and various parties vying for control over this critical resource.
Trump’s approach to such a situation would likely be guided by his broader foreign policy and economic interests. Based on his recent actions and statements, he has shown a keen interest in securing critical minerals—like lithium, which is vital for batteries and renewable energy technologies—to reduce U.S. reliance on China. His negotiations with Ukraine over mineral rights in exchange for aid suggest he views resource access as a transactional opportunity. The DRC, with its vast reserves of cobalt, lithium, and other minerals, could fit into this framework.
However, several factors complicate any potential Trump involvement in the AVZ case:

1. U.S. Strategic Interests: Trump might prioritize securing mineral supply chains for American companies or allies over directly aiding an Australian firm like AVZ. If he sees the DRC’s resources as a way to counter China’s dominance in the region (Chinese firms like Zijin Mining are already involved in the Manono dispute), he could push for broader U.S. influence rather than focusing on AVZ specifically.
2. DRC Conflict Dynamics: The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, particularly with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seizing key cities like Goma and Bukavu as of February 2025, creates a volatile environment. Trump’s administration might hesitate to dive into a messy regional conflict unless there’s a clear economic or geopolitical win. His comments calling the DRC situation a “very serious problem” without further elaboration suggest awareness but not yet a defined strategy.
3. Transactional Approach: Trump’s foreign policy often hinges on “what’s in it for the U.S.” He could pressure the DRC government to resolve the AVZ dispute in favor of Western interests as part of a larger deal—perhaps tied to aid, security support, or sanctions relief—but only if it aligns with his America First agenda.
4. Limited Direct Leverage: AVZ is an Australian company, not American, so Trump might leave it to Australia to lead diplomatic efforts unless U.S. firms (or his personal business interests) stand to gain. His administration could, however, use broader tools like trade policies or diplomatic pressure on the DRC to shift the situation indirectly.

Given these points, Trump might help the AVZ situation if it serves as a lever to secure U.S. access to DRC minerals or weaken China’s grip on the region’s resources. For example, he could encourage a resolution that favors Western companies as part of a bigger anti-China strategy. But there’s no public evidence as of February 20, 2025, that he has singled out AVZ or the Manono project specifically. His focus might instead be on stabilizing the DRC enough to ensure mineral exports flow to the U.S. and its allies, rather than resolving a single company’s plight.
In summary, while Trump’s resource-driven mindset could lead to actions that indirectly benefit AVZ, don’t expect him to champion their cause outright unless it fits a larger U.S. gain. The situation’s outcome will likely hinge more on DRC internal politics, China’s moves, and Australia’s diplomacy—unless Trump sees a clear win for his agenda. What do you think—do you see him taking a hands-on role here, or staying on the sidelines?"

 

[Dazmac66]

"they will support allies and expect allied governments to support their own firms in the battle against Beijing’s interests."

Wow - expecting the Australian government to support an Australian company that is being reamed by corruption and Chinese influence! Not likely.

 

[Winenut]

Grok's opinion as to whether Trump will help AVZ's position.

"It’s difficult to predict with certainty whether Donald Trump will directly intervene or influence the AVZ Minerals situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it depends on his administration’s priorities, foreign policy approach, and the specific circumstances surrounding the issue. However, I can provide some context and reasoning to help frame the possibilities.
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, has been entangled in a complex dispute over the Manono Lithium Project in the DRC, one of the world’s largest undeveloped lithium deposits. The situation involves legal battles, allegations of corruption, and competing claims from Chinese firms and other stakeholders, all set against the backdrop of the DRC’s mineral-rich but politically unstable eastern region. As of early 2025, the project remains stalled due to these conflicts, with the DRC government and various parties vying for control over this critical resource.
Trump’s approach to such a situation would likely be guided by his broader foreign policy and economic interests. Based on his recent actions and statements, he has shown a keen interest in securing critical minerals—like lithium, which is vital for batteries and renewable energy technologies—to reduce U.S. reliance on China. His negotiations with Ukraine over mineral rights in exchange for aid suggest he views resource access as a transactional opportunity. The DRC, with its vast reserves of cobalt, lithium, and other minerals, could fit into this framework.
However, several factors complicate any potential Trump involvement in the AVZ case:

1. U.S. Strategic Interests: Trump might prioritize securing mineral supply chains for American companies or allies over directly aiding an Australian firm like AVZ. If he sees the DRC’s resources as a way to counter China’s dominance in the region (Chinese firms like Zijin Mining are already involved in the Manono dispute), he could push for broader U.S. influence rather than focusing on AVZ specifically.
2. DRC Conflict Dynamics: The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, particularly with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seizing key cities like Goma and Bukavu as of February 2025, creates a volatile environment. Trump’s administration might hesitate to dive into a messy regional conflict unless there’s a clear economic or geopolitical win. His comments calling the DRC situation a “very serious problem” without further elaboration suggest awareness but not yet a defined strategy.
3. Transactional Approach: Trump’s foreign policy often hinges on “what’s in it for the U.S.” He could pressure the DRC government to resolve the AVZ dispute in favor of Western interests as part of a larger deal—perhaps tied to aid, security support, or sanctions relief—but only if it aligns with his America First agenda.
4. Limited Direct Leverage: AVZ is an Australian company, not American, so Trump might leave it to Australia to lead diplomatic efforts unless U.S. firms (or his personal business interests) stand to gain. His administration could, however, use broader tools like trade policies or diplomatic pressure on the DRC to shift the situation indirectly.

Given these points, Trump might help the AVZ situation if it serves as a lever to secure U.S. access to DRC minerals or weaken China’s grip on the region’s resources. For example, he could encourage a resolution that favors Western companies as part of a bigger anti-China strategy. But there’s no public evidence as of February 20, 2025, that he has singled out AVZ or the Manono project specifically. His focus might instead be on stabilizing the DRC enough to ensure mineral exports flow to the U.S. and its allies, rather than resolving a single company’s plight.
In summary, while Trump’s resource-driven mindset could lead to actions that indirectly benefit AVZ, don’t expect him to champion their cause outright unless it fits a larger U.S. gain. The situation’s outcome will likely hinge more on DRC internal politics, China’s moves, and Australia’s diplomacy—unless Trump sees a clear win for his agenda. What do you think—do you see him taking a hands-on role here, or staying on the sidelines?"

"It’s difficult to predict with certainty"......ANYTHING that fucking Trump will do

Fucking loose cannon....really loose cannon

 

[wombat74]

yeah I get the feeling trump is ready to partner with putin and xi, and then fuck everyone else over. So not sure how this ends for drc and avz. I suppose my uneducated hope is that trump wants the minerals in the drc, in the same way he wants them in Ukraine. So maybe he says to drc gives us minerals or I'm going to fuck you over. if that happens then maybe there is a way forward for avz to get something out of this.

Isn't AVZ partnering with a Chinese Company ? From memory the only deals AVZ has cut ( investment /off takes / JV) has been with China . If the USA can wrangle something better then great . Otherwise it's always been AVZ/China as far as I can remember . I dare say if we got that ML 3 years ago we most probably would have been taken over by China .

 

[wombat74]

"It’s difficult to predict with certainty"......ANYTHING that fucking Trump will do

Fucking loose cannon....really loose cannon

No more playing golf for Trump .

 

[Pokok]

Manono would not be exploited for its lithium if it falls into rebel control. It’s the tin (which they have been exporting illegally from some DRC mines already) that would be mined and sold. It’s not like tin requires complex machinery to get access to.

This is a serious question , with all that is going on in the background why did you broach this subject and put more shit in people's head so, you are either a shit stirrer , know something we don't , or believe the rebels have the knowledge or the know how to run a mine and get it to market . I think you are full of shit , prove to me in what capacity they can achieve this ??

 

[hedrox]

https://mines.cd/edito-la-division-de-congolais-favorise-le-pillage-des-ressources-naturelles/

They have to wing it.....if they want to safe their arses..so much publicity and on top pressure from M23..
Fuck me dead, I wouldn't like to sit in their shoes..

 

[hedrox]

Great post from Amarvito on the crapper....

 

[Mr Clean]

Current tin price US$ 32.75 per kg.

RD average tin content 850 ppm which is .85 kg tin/ 1000 kg of ore, which is less than US$ 28 / ton of ore.

After processing 100 ton of ore and smelting the final product they will have about 85 kg of tin, or about US$ 2,800

When processing lithium ore into SC6 tin is a nice little earner, but I don't think somehow M23 will do a dash to Manono to get their hands at all this tin.

Current gold price US$ 94,500.00 /kg

Not suggesting they will dash for Manono. But they are expanding southward. More so every day.

Also, Reuters reporting that Burundi pulled out of the DRC (Burundi saying they haven’t). Their 10k worth of soldiers were far more effective a fighting force than most of the forces on the eastern front.

If true the DRC army would be left with even fewer allies in the field - something that we don’t want surely. I wish I could be as confident as you lot in dismissing these concerns. But the facts are suggesting otherwise. M23 is not contained and expanding rapidly. And I haven’t seen anything yet to suggest that they would stop.

 

[Mr Clean]

This is a serious question , with all that is going on in the background why did you broach this subject and put more shit in people's head so, you are either a shit stirrer , know something we don't , or believe the rebels have the knowledge or the know how to run a mine and get it to market . I think you are full of shit , prove to me in what capacity they can achieve this ??

Because it ain’t all rosy mate. The DRC cannot defend their territory. M23 have basically doubled their territorial control in the space of a month. Taken 1 huge city and another significant city too.

Read up on the 1st and 2nd Congo War. Then tell me if you think all these countries getting drawn into the DRC quagmire is going to end any differently?

 

[Mr Clean]

This is a serious question , with all that is going on in the background why did you broach this subject and put more shit in people's head so, you are either a shit stirrer , know something we don't , or believe the rebels have the knowledge or the know how to run a mine and get it to market . I think you are full of shit , prove to me in what capacity they can achieve this ??

Plenty of artisanal mining happens in Manono for Tin. It’s a rich area for it. It does have material value for rebel groups. That’s blatantly obvious

 

[Doc]

Just me waiting for moneybags to have had
enough

 

[cruiser51]

Just me waiting for moneybags to have had
enough

Panic attacks can be sudden and overpowering.
People cannot always predict panic attacks, but making a plan of what to do when they happen can help a person feel more in control and make panic attacks easier to manage.

Panic attacks can cause physical and emotional symptoms, including:

• sweating
• rapid breathing
• a racing heartbeat
• feelings of fear and anxiety
• intense and repetitive worrying
• a sense of impending doom

Eating humongous amounts of popcorn does not help with panic attacks!

 

[Azzler]

More from Grok... I had to push the cunt to get this:

Strategic Overview
Your goal is to ensure AVZ retains control of the Manono deposit and delivers a return on investment. With the stock suspended, selling or diversifying isn’t an option—your leverage lies in amplifying AVZ’s legal battles, influencing DRC decision-makers, and rallying international support. Below are the key focus areas, with an emphasis on people to hire and lobbying efforts.

---

1. Legal Escalation
AVZ is already engaged in arbitration (e.g., ICC cases), and your funding can tip the scales.

• Hire Top Arbitration Experts:
  • White & Case or Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan: These firms dominate international arbitration, especially in mining disputes. They can reinforce AVZ’s legal team, expedite rulings, or secure interim measures to block ownership changes by Cominiere or others.
  • Why Them? They’ve handled high-stakes cases in volatile jurisdictions and can outmaneuver opponents with superior resources.
  • Action: Allocate funds to retain them immediately—time is critical.
• Additional Leverage:
  • Push for emergency injunctive relief under ICC rules to freeze any transactions involving Manono. This preserves AVZ’s position while disputes play out.

---

2. Lobbying and Political Influence
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.

• Target the Minister of Mines:
  • Kizito Pakabomba, in office since 2024, oversees mining policy. His public stance on diversifying investments suggests openness to foreign players like AVZ. Direct lobbying could sway him.
  • Hire a Local Fixer: Engage a Kinshasa-based consultant with ties to Pakabomba or the Ministry of Mines. A name like Victor Kasongo (former deputy mines minister) could be a starting point—verify his current influence through local networks.
  • Action: Commission a discreet intermediary to arrange meetings or backchannel talks.
• Lobbying Firms:
  • Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company: These firms specialize in African political navigation and have networks spanning government and industry.
  • Why Them? They can influence DRC elites and counter rival lobbying (e.g., from Chinese firms).
  • Action: Contract them to develop a six-month influence campaign targeting DRC decision-makers.
• Western Diplomatic Pressure:
  • Australian Embassy (Harare) and U.S. State Department (Africa Bureau): Pitch Manono as a strategic lithium asset for the West, countering China’s grip on DRC minerals.
  • Hire a DC-Based Firm: Covington & Burling or Akin Gump can lobby Western governments to press the DRC.
  • Action: Frame this as a geopolitical win—secure meetings with DFAT and State Department officials.

---

3. Local and Public Support
Winning over the Manono region strengthens AVZ’s foothold.

• Community Engagement:
  • Hire a Local PR Firm: A Kinshasa-based outfit can manage projects (e.g., schools, roads) to build goodwill with locals.
  • Why? Community backing makes it politically harder for the DRC to oust AVZ.
  • Action: Fund visible initiatives and amplify them via local media.

---

4. Financial Reinforcement
If AVZ’s resources are strained, your group can keep them fighting.

• Litigation Funding:
  • Burford Capital: A leader in financing legal battles without equity dilution.
  • Why Them? They ensure AVZ can sustain its ICC/ICSID cases.
  • Action: Negotiate a funding package tied to arbitration outcomes.

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Key People and Entities to Hire

• Legal: White & Case or Quinn Emanuel (arbitration firepower).
• Lobbying (Africa): Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company (DRC influence).
• Lobbying (West): Covington & Burling or Akin Gump (diplomatic push).
• Local Fixer: Kinshasa consultant with Pakabomba access (e.g., Victor Kasongo, pending verification).
• PR: Kinshasa-based firm for community outreach.
• Funding: Burford Capital for litigation support.

---

Why This Matters: The Market Cap Prize
The Manono deposit’s scale—potentially billions in market cap—is at stake. Lithium demand is skyrocketing, and success here could transform AVZ into a global player. Your efforts could unlock this value, dwarfing current investments.

---

Why It Works

• Legal: DRC respects international arbitration; your funding can secure wins.
• Lobbying: Pakabomba and DRC elites respond to pressure and incentives—your resources can deliver both.
• Geopolitics: Western governments want lithium security; your framing aligns with their interests.

Focus your efforts here, deploy your connections, and hire these experts. The Manono deposit is yours to defend—and win.
Best regards,
[Your Strategic Ally]

This Victor Kasongo looks like an interesting character!

 

[Frank]

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[JNRB]

Hmmmmm Africa....Its the heart that counts, but Im just say'n, Im not sure if they even invented a wheel before foreigners got there

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Not really sure that blatant racism against the citizens of the country we want to operate in is helpful.

Wait, I am sure:
It's fking stupid and wrong, and DEFINITELY doesn't do any good for AVZ.

 

[Azzler]

Not really sure that blatant racism against the citizens of the country we want to operate in is helpful.

Wait, I am sure:
It's fking stupid and wrong, and DEFINITELY doesn't do any good for AVZ.

I believe that's another one of Geists personas, or possibly some other regular detractor, I forget.
But anyway clearly they are now trying to diminish the reputation of the people in this forum. Report the post.
These people got nothing so they stoop so low to these levels.

You reap what you sow, mofo.