AVZ Discussion 2022

[obe wan]

Despite some reservations about this situation and parts of the announcement, i think that, on the whole, this is a positive development.

Having a big player like CATH/CATL backing our play and agreeing to leverage their influence on the DRC government could be the game changer we need. I was growing concerned that DRC were willing to go through the full ICSID process and then delay and obfuscate for many years after an award, tiring us and our funding out until we eventually accepted a Lowball settlement. However, this seems like it could present a way out in which all involved could get a slice of the pie. This may result in a negotiated outcome.

Glencore has operated effectively in DRC in part due to its involvement with its partner Zijin, perhaps a similar relationship with CATH/CATL is what we need to progress the Project forward.

I mean it's a good deal for CATH, but they've got the leverage, not us. It's also probably a bit of a master-stroke by the Chinese in that they'll likely control the output of Manono's entirety despite who succeeds. Bets are hedged. But they're no slouches in business and resource control! And hell, nobody has stepped up to resolve this to suit their own interests, like Aus/US, so this may well be in our own current best interests - certainly in comparison to the existential risk of being frozen out entirely.

This is as hopeful as I've been in the last two years.

One side point - i wonder if Locke will push back at all, given that an agreement with a minimum repayment spend of 10m was agreed. Will see i guess.

INTERESTING TIMES

“One side point - i wonder if Locke will push back at all, given that an agreement with a minimum repayment spend of 10m was agreed. Will see i guess.”

The announcement with Locke • AVZ expects to drawdown a first tranche of funds during December 2024 •

Litigation funds typically have a bag load of ‘if this happens then this , if this happens then this etc etc etc Locke no doubt would have a ream term ‘if’ terms gears towards opportunity and as much risk adversity as possible . Their payback multipliers of funding are generally X5++ of the load amount plus some beefy cherries suck as ability to buy up 10% of shares in the company , as well as the heavy security terms we’d be open to I.e security was the project

Ironically the clowns who caused this AFP stink may well have caused Locke to stall and ask questions giving CAT enough time to slide in and steal the show … imo the terms of security / loss of project ; potential another 10% holder coming on board may well have kicked CAT into gear.

I wonder who called the AFP

 

[Scoota30]

The KEY kicker in this announcement for me is the lithium hydroxide plant, this was the golden goose that would help unlock richer downstream margins.

IMO if we can retain Majority ownership of Manono while securing 49% ownership on the Hydroxide plant, I would argue we are almost better off with this latest JV agreement than CATH are??? Interested to hear thoughts?

This would be a perfect way to make sure every party ends up getting a "slice of the pie" and can help the DRC save face (Apart from Dathomir - they can go get fucked because Cong genuinely doesn't have a leg to stand on there)

AVZI will be granted an option to purchase up to 49% of CATH's interest in a lithium hydroxide or carbonate conversion plant (LHC Plant) to be built by CATH.

 

[Xerof]

So shit stain is crowing on about dealing with the Chinese....we have always had a deal with the Chinese - seemingly the 'right type' who are prepared to come into our room thought the front door, not the 'devious cunts' sliming in the back door - you know, the ones paying him 50 cents a pop for rubbish spamming

This is a great piece of negotiation. We have admittedly given up 1.5m per 1%; not too bad given the circumstances, but it now sits as an interest outside the direct participation in DATHCOM (no mention of whether CATH gets a board seat on GLH or DATHCOM) so there's no danger of AVZ losing control of DATHCOM, even if it were to reduce back to 60%

IMO, the $259.25 buys them 30.5% of GLH, end of story, no adjustments if anything happens with the 75% in DATHCOM, as was the original deal. We will likely use some of that cash, after paying off the Pre-completion funding, to buy out the remaining 15% from COMINIERE

CATH willing to build upstream plant is fantastic, and should be a major incentive for DRC to co-operate in sorting this out

Might have to pay Locke their $1m for the inconvenience - so be it

Fees are paid to kick off the ICC and ICSID - lets get on with it asap and tidy up all these loose ends

Possibly need some clarity around "project area covered by 13359" statement - I would think they want the whole thing back but it could be read as just Roche

Great day for AVZ shareholders IMO, and I got the quinella with an EPA approval announced for VRX today too!!

 

[Hodlandwin69]

So shit stain is crowing on about dealing with the Chinese....we have always had a deal with the Chinese - seemingly the 'right type' who are prepared to come into our room thought the front door, not the 'devious cunts' sliming in the back door - you know, the ones paying him 50 cents a pop for rubbish spamming

This is a great piece of negotiation. We have admittedly given up 1.5m per 1%; not too bad given the circumstances, but it now sits as an interest outside the direct participation in DATHCOM (no mention of whether CATH gets a board seat on GLH or DATHCOM) so there's no danger of AVZ losing control of DATHCOM, even if it were to reduce back to 60%

IMO, the $259.25 buys them 30.5% of GLH, end of story, no adjustments if anything happens with the 75% in DATHCOM, as was the original deal. We will likely use some of that cash, after paying off the Pre-completion funding, to buy out the remaining 15% from COMINIERE

CATH willing to build upstream plant is fantastic, and should be a major incentive for DRC to co-operate in sorting this out

Might have to pay Locke their $1m for the inconvenience - so be it

Fees are paid to kick off the ICC and ICSID - lets get on with it asap and tidy up all these loose ends

Possibly need some clarity around "project area covered by 13359" statement - I would think they want the whole thing back but it could be read as just Roche

Great day for AVZ shareholders IMO, and I got the quinella with an EPA approval announced for VRX today too!!

It's 30.5% of Manono via indirect ownership through GLH. It's more than 30.5% of GLH as it needs to be 30.5% of the Manono project imo

 

[Xerof]

so there's a question for Nigel to clarify that bit too

 

[LX600]

Does this mean if Green Lithium only holds 60% of 13359, then CATH will be holding just a little bit more than 50% of Green Lithium?

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Does this mean if Green Lithium only holds 60% of 13359, then CATH will be holding just a little bit more than 50% of Green Lithium?

Well the math would suggest that

 

[PhatCatz]

so Green Lithium will be essentially Chinese owned. any impacts that will have on the company?

 

[TheCount]

so Green Lithium will be essentially Chinese owned. any impacts that will have on the company?

You're starting to talk like Shane.....

 

[LX600]

The odd that Green Lithium end up only holding 60% of 13359 is very very low. As long as more than 60%, AVZ still controls

 

[Frank]

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[JNRB]

Worth pointing out because I don't think its been said yet:
This probably explains the delay on paying arbitration fees.


Also, it think i initially underestimated the impact of having a hydroxide plant. This is great for us, but also a big deal for DRC. One more argument for going with AVZ / CATH and telling Zejin to fk off

 

[PhatCatz]

You're starting to talk like Shane.....

Apologies. I'm definitely cautiously optimistic. But we've been burnt many times, even with our apparent saviors CATH voting against the BOD. I just think there needs some more thinking on this "deal". ME questioning certain elements isn't meant to rain on the parade, I'm just very wary. The Chinese will continue to play games to undermine ownership. It's their Schtick. I think AVZ need tom hedge bets as best as they can.

 

[Deepp]

Well the math would suggest that

"Under the terms of the revised TIA, CATH will acquire an indirect 30.5% interest in the Manono Project, through the acquisition of shares in GLH (a wholly owned subsidiary of AVZI and the holder of legal
title to AVZ's interest in Dathcom), for cash consideration to AVZ of US$259.25m."

The announcement is not saying CATH will acquire 30.5% indirect interest of Dathcom but saying indirect 30.5% interest in the Manono Project, through the acquisition of shares in GLH.

GLH only hold 75% of Dathcom (or 60% if we don't get the 15%) till now.

I think we need clarification from company regarding this.

Also if it is 30.5% of GLH, then if avz ever acquire comminire 15% then CATH would need to contribute their share if they need to maintain this 30.5%.

 

[RHyNO]

Certainly feels like a fucktonne of work being done by the gang in relation to setting this up. Certainly doing their job to turn my scepticism into absolute support. This is a great move by management. Wrapping our intentions in with a battery producer out of China. One we already have a solid relationship with none the less. Good work Nigel!

 

[Yaseen]

"Under the terms of the revised TIA, CATH will acquire an indirect 30.5% interest in the Manono Project, through the acquisition of shares in GLH (a wholly owned subsidiary of AVZI and the holder of legal
title to AVZ's interest in Dathcom), for cash consideration to AVZ of US$259.25m."

The announcement is not saying CATH will acquire 30.5% indirect interest of Dathcom but saying indirect 30.5% interest in the Manono Project, through the acquisition of shares in GLH.

GLH only hold 75% of Dathcom (or 60% if we don't get the 15%) till now.

I think we need clarification from company regarding this.

Also if it is 30.5% of GLH, then if avz ever acquire comminire 15% then CATH would need to contribute their share if they need to maintain this 30.5%.

Cominiere can hand over their % for nothing or we follow through on the $100m they owe us already, fuck them

 

[Carlos Danger]

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Incredible by the bod. A truly remarkable effort to have pulled this off. Pretty clear what happens next imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

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‘We'd also like to thank Locke Capital for their support and the external validation of AVZ's legal claims and strategy’

Damn that’s ice cold haha

 

[Carlos Danger]

At the AGM Nigel advised he would be making the first draw down on Locke Funds the following week to pay the outstanding legal fees.
I would not expect an announcement,but consider it already done

You should let the ICSID know

 

[EarleofBarrow]

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Over the moon with this announcement and that I was wrong
Now we know what Nigel was talking about when he let us know he was looking at better alternatives to Locke