Hi Carlos,
Someone buys out AVZ or Zijin is out ?
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Someone buys out AVZ or Zijin is out ?
Hodlandwin69
Regular
I think he means DRC start going out way
Captain Obvious summary is it's highly likely (given the timing) that CATH re-engaged because AVZ had the Locke funding for legal fees, meaning the "bleeding AVZ dry" strategy (as well as the amateurish attempts to take over the AVZ Board and allege "bribes") hasn't worked. CATH know AVZ will probably ultimately win the legal case.
The core question is whether CATH's reengagement is:
A) just the Chinese covering their bases. As in, China is in no particular rush and will be happy to let the legal situation play out for a few more years safe in the knowledge that China has locked in a future generational lithium supply via CATH or Zijin regardless of whether AVZ wins or loses the legal battle. If this is the case, China and their paid supporters in DRC will probably continue to rat f*** AVZ because Zijin is the cheaper cost and their preferred outcome.
Or
B) because CATH and Zijins' has decided to actively pursue the strategy, aided and abetted by the DRC Govt, of getting AVZ to agree that AVZ will get the South and Zijin the North, via the carrot and stick approach of promising a Mining Licence for the South and promising to continue to rat f*** AVZ if they don't agree. Legal case goes away, China happy, AVZ salvages something, sweetened by the CATH funding (needed to buy the additional 15% and for mine/plant construction) and the option of 49% of a possible hydroxide plant. Under this scenario CATH reengaged with AVZ to lock in 100% of Manolo lithium supply for China.
Or
C) CATH stepping in is a sign China want this crapola sorted ASAP so that mining can start. China has concluded the global scramble to secure sovereign controlled supplies of critical minerals currently underway will get more costly, frenetic and unpredictable with Trump. China knows a lithium supply squeeze is coming, most of the lithium supply will otherwise come out of the West, and it has decided Zijin has had it's chance and it's now time for action to lock in a cheap secure generational lithium supply.
Being optimistic perhaps it's C). The Chinese Govt would ultimately be calling the shots and they would have to had to agree to CATH helping out AVZ in such a material way. The looming supply issue and global scramble to secure sovereign supply rules out A) and CATH funding & strong legal case means AVZ is unlikely to agree to a South/North split, ruling out B).
Time will tell but seems all is not lost. Very happy with today's announcement. I was getting very antsy about why Locke funding hadn't actually been received.
The core question is whether CATH's reengagement is:
A) just the Chinese covering their bases. As in, China is in no particular rush and will be happy to let the legal situation play out for a few more years safe in the knowledge that China has locked in a future generational lithium supply via CATH or Zijin regardless of whether AVZ wins or loses the legal battle. If this is the case, China and their paid supporters in DRC will probably continue to rat f*** AVZ because Zijin is the cheaper cost and their preferred outcome.
Or
B) because CATH and Zijins' has decided to actively pursue the strategy, aided and abetted by the DRC Govt, of getting AVZ to agree that AVZ will get the South and Zijin the North, via the carrot and stick approach of promising a Mining Licence for the South and promising to continue to rat f*** AVZ if they don't agree. Legal case goes away, China happy, AVZ salvages something, sweetened by the CATH funding (needed to buy the additional 15% and for mine/plant construction) and the option of 49% of a possible hydroxide plant. Under this scenario CATH reengaged with AVZ to lock in 100% of Manolo lithium supply for China.
Or
C) CATH stepping in is a sign China want this crapola sorted ASAP so that mining can start. China has concluded the global scramble to secure sovereign controlled supplies of critical minerals currently underway will get more costly, frenetic and unpredictable with Trump. China knows a lithium supply squeeze is coming, most of the lithium supply will otherwise come out of the West, and it has decided Zijin has had it's chance and it's now time for action to lock in a cheap secure generational lithium supply.
Being optimistic perhaps it's C). The Chinese Govt would ultimately be calling the shots and they would have to had to agree to CATH helping out AVZ in such a material way. The looming supply issue and global scramble to secure sovereign supply rules out A) and CATH funding & strong legal case means AVZ is unlikely to agree to a South/North split, ruling out B).
Time will tell but seems all is not lost. Very happy with today's announcement. I was getting very antsy about why Locke funding hadn't actually been received.
Rediah
Regular
I’m not sure why there are so many questions coming from so many new accounts again.
Let the BoD continue doing what they’ve been doing.
On a positive note, I recently accepted this interesting looking business card from someone in Fortitude Valley (Brisbane).
Not sure what this is but they mentioned it could help with my financial situation—feeling optimistic about it!
Let the BoD continue doing what they’ve been doing.
On a positive note, I recently accepted this interesting looking business card from someone in Fortitude Valley (Brisbane).
Not sure what this is but they mentioned it could help with my financial situation—feeling optimistic about it!
Spikerama
Regular
It's Playstation
QAnon ?
Bray
Regular
In a cath vs zinjin battle, who actually has the bigger dick?
are cath the alpha
Well i thought president Xi was the alpha and every chinese state coy followed the narrative.......
Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Zijin head office ....
I wonder whats going thru Celestine head right now ?
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
Are you taking suggestions?Well i thought president Xi was the alpha and every chinese state coy followed the narrative.......
Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Zijin head office ....
I wonder whats going thru Celestine head right now ?
View attachment 75605
I am open to any suggestions, what you got ?
Ugly Bob?
Bray
Regular
If Cath is the bigger fish maybe Xi has said give zinjin a backhander, fall into place. Who bloody knowsWell i thought president Xi was the alpha and every chinese state coy followed the narrative.......
Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Zijin head office ....
I wonder whats going thru Celestine head right now ?
View attachment 75605
I was getting very antsy about why Locke funding hadn't actually been received.
Maybe the locke deal never got signed.....
Maybe the locke deal was a smokey to force ones hand......
just speculating
Oh BTW, i think the only logical option you presented was C.
Whatever the case maybe Bray, the situation now has turned dramatically from 3 months ago...... whereby everyone was fretting that AVZ maybe wound up due to lack of funds.......now AVZ not only has funding with a strong legal case, they have multiple options on the table......go mining or secure a package deal and on sell with strength with CATH being the conduit to do our bidding with the fat cat / mom.
Dare i say it, AVZ holds all the cards!
Time will tell.
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My view is that CATH (CATL +) would have previously met with DRC officials (including the MoM) prior to developing and lobbing its proposal to AVZ. CATH would neither show its hand nor commit funds into an otherwise toxic situation without a meeting of minds and a full understanding of the DRC's view. In addition, an hydroxide plant is a value-add that Zijin cannot match.
As a result, this resurrected relationship and funding agreement with AVZ has the imprimatur of the DRC, and a negotiated settlement is probably the most likely outcome.
Just thinking out aloud.
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Mute22
Regular
Tim has a helluva lot to answer for...Guess tim will tell. Interesting and great start to 2025.
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