AVZ Discussion 2022

[pow4ade]

The main reason for traffic congestion in Kinshasa is corruption, from traffic cops thru to the judiciary:

Kinshasa’s traffic cops run an extortion scheme generating five times more revenue than fines​

https://theconversation.com/kinshas...ing-five-times-more-revenue-than-fines-246786

Imagine the judiciary being asked to endorse international penalties lol. Wont happen. Hard to escape the notion now that the DRC is a failed state. Best we settle and GTFO. IMO.

 

[JNRB]

I’ve been thinking what this could all mean for AVZ. And I honestly don’t have a clue. I don’t think it’s a good thing.

Separately, I’m worried China might deploy troops in some capacity to protect its strategic interests if this gets out of hand. PRC hasn’t done this sort of thing though so unsure. But it’s an unease on me that if this grows so will support for DRC from China.

Yeah I've been wondering the same.
China is always looking for chances to increase its influence, and in the current era that could include militarily. If DRC accepted, they could legitimately use the conflict as a reason to bring in troops.
The big question is how that changes dynamics for everything else once it happens....
For us I dont think its a problem due to our partnership with CATH now, but it would certainly push things in new directions so who knows..

 

[RHyNO]

I love this country! We make a strategic mineral list. Pay a whole bunch of consultants and politicians to create it. Then when a company comes along from a foreign nation (one we are paying 300 billion just to get submarines to protect us from) we let them not only pillage what we have in Africa but also let them in our front door to own the critical minerals we need. We hand them the keys!!!!! All the politicians in this country on both sides need to WAKE THE FUCK UP!!

 

[tolate]

The ICSID does not directly enforce penalties , but instead relies on the legal system of it's states to recognize and enforce as if they were final judgments of their domestic courts. Meaning that a party seeking to enforce an award must go through the relevant member state to collect any fines imposed .This enforcement is subject to the states laws on sovereign immunity . In other words if the DRC court refuses to recognize the ICSID decision there is little chance AVZ will see a dollar . This tells us a settlement needs to be reached before the first ICSID court date in June. If not we can assume the DRC do not recognize the ICSID

Yes at the end of the DAY the word ENFORCEMENT will be tested..imo..?????

 

[Carlos Danger]

The ICSID does not directly enforce penalties , but instead relies on the legal system of it's states to recognize and enforce as if they were final judgments of their domestic courts. Meaning that a party seeking to enforce an award must go through the relevant member state to collect any fines imposed .This enforcement is subject to the states laws on sovereign immunity . In other words if the DRC court refuses to recognize the ICSID decision there is little chance AVZ will see a dollar . This tells us a settlement needs to be reached before the first ICSID court date in June. If not we can assume the DRC do not recognize the ICSID

Wrong. We can enforce it in any member state.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/procedures/arbitration/convention/recognition-enforcement

Recognition and Enforcement - ICSID Convention Arbitration (2022 Rules)

An Award of a Tribunal is binding on all parties to the proceeding and each party must comply with it pursuant to its terms (Article 53(1) of the ICSID Convention). If a party fails to comply with the Award, the other party can have the pecuniary obligations recognized and enforced in the courts of any ICSID Member State as though it were a final judgment of that State’s courts (Article 54(1) of the ICSID Convention).

 

[Xerof]

I DO like how malicious misinformation gets shot down in flames on this site

Trolls struggle to get any traction here - best to stick with the troll house

 

[tonster66]

Yeah I've been wondering the same.
China is always looking for chances to increase its influence, and in the current era that could include militarily. If DRC accepted, they could legitimately use the conflict as a reason to bring in troops.
The big question is how that changes dynamics for everything else once it happens....
For us I dont think its a problem due to our partnership with CATH now, but it would certainly push things in new directions so who knows..

Dont the US own the Lobito corridor

Lobito Corridor: a $250 million investment planned by the USA for this rail link between the DRC and Angola

The United States has confirmed that it is considering a $250 million investment in the Lobito rail link between the DRC and Angola. With a length of 1,344 km, the project is a strategic axis

miningandbusiness.com

With what has just happened with Panama I dont think the US will give this up without a fight.
imo

 

[Frank]

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[Stockinvesting]

Dont the US own the Lobito corridor

Lobito Corridor: a $250 million investment planned by the USA for this rail link between the DRC and Angola

The United States has confirmed that it is considering a $250 million investment in the Lobito rail link between the DRC and Angola. With a length of 1,344 km, the project is a strategic axis

miningandbusiness.com

With what has just happened with Panama I dont think the US will give this up without a fight.
imo

Wrong President.

 

[Mute22]

Can somebody explain, if we are successful in the courts, the chances we recoup something resembling fair value at all?

I don't think DRC has enough in the coffers, even if they wanted to hand it over. As far as ceasing assets internationally, not across how that would work at all?

 

[mikejoho]

Can somebody explain, if we are successful in the courts, the chances we recoup something resembling fair value at all?

I don't think DRC has enough in the coffers, even if they wanted to hand it over. As far as ceasing assets internationally, not across how that would work at all?

Not sure.

But realistically the DRC don’t what that outcome. If we do get that far, the decision will officially expose the corruption and the unethical business environment. The apparent will to promote and attract European and other western investment will be made redundant. Indaba cannot be attended by the DRC and the DRC mining week will need to be scrapped. Manono will be in a stalemate. The DRC people will eventually find out the truth (although there will be propaganda) resulting in riots, coups, instability - The country will implode, the president will be hanged, Zijin will be guilty be association, and bring shame to Xi resulting in Chen Jinghe being sentenced to death.

Just issue the fucking ML.

 

[tonster66]

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So the PM denounces the in-action of the international community in the face of illegal mining. Is this actually a cry for help?
We are seeing the entrenched corruption in the US and the difficulties that Trump is facing, is the PM suffering the same when trying to deal with corruption?
Is it a cry for help from the international community to help in dismantling the corruption in the DRC. Who knows imo

 

[cruiser51]

Can somebody explain, if we are successful in the courts, the chances we recoup something resembling fair value at all?

I don't think DRC has enough in the coffers, even if they wanted to hand it over. As far as ceasing assets internationally, not across how that would work at all?

Who knows where Felix and his tribe will be at that stage?
I don't know if Felix will be allowed to serve his time out.
I think Felix is a front man, who is allowed to be a show pony with a nice watch and a bullet proof vest, who will be thrown under the bus when the time is right. I don't think he is the strong man he wants us to believe.

The DRC is a country in flux, nobody knows what happens tomorrow.

Will M23 be able to reach Kinshasa?
The DRC is a large country (Kinshasa to Goma is about the same distance as Perth to Sydney) and even if M23 is supported by Rwanda, that will only happen, if there is a complete complete very strong protest against the current ruling class. The supply lines are simply too long.

It could well be that the population rather sticks with the current misery regime, rather than forcing a change of power with a murderous group they don't know.

All AVZ can do is defend their rights through the courts, regardless of all the sand Zijin is trying to throw in the gearbox.

Don't forget Kabila still has some sort of following in Kivu and is stirring in the back ground.

Just some points to consider.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Can somebody explain, if we are successful in the courts, the chances we recoup something resembling fair value at all?

I don't think DRC has enough in the coffers, even if they wanted to hand it over. As far as ceasing assets internationally, not across how that would work at all?

they will forfeit land of the same value and AVZ will establish a country there where we will all live together happily ever after

 

[TheCount]

they will forfeit land of the same value and AVZ will establish a country there where we will all live together happily ever after

Imagine that!!! It'd be worse than Lord of the Flies.

Will Shane (aka piggy) be there?

 

[geo_au]

Who knows where Felix and his tribe will be at that stage?
I don't know if Felix will be allowed to serve his time out.
I think Felix is a front man, who is allowed to be a show pony with a nice watch and a bullet proof vest, who will be thrown under the bus when the time is right. I don't think he is the strong man he wants us to believe.

The DRC is a country in flux, nobody knows what happens tomorrow.

Will M23 be able to reach Kinshasa?
The DRC is a large country (Kinshasa to Goma is about the same distance as Perth to Sydney) and even if M23 is supported by Rwanda, that will only happen, if there is a complete complete very strong protest against the current ruling class. The supply lines are simply too long.

It could well be that the population rather sticks with the current misery regime, rather than forcing a change of power with a murderous group they don't know.

All AVZ can do is defend their rights through the courts, regardless of all the sand Zijin is trying to throw in the gearbox.

Don't forget Kabila still has some sort of following in Kivu and is stirring in the back ground.

Just some points to consider.

M23 has retreated and has no further plans in Kinshasa.

 

[PhatCatz]

Yeah I've been wondering the same.
China is always looking for chances to increase its influence, and in the current era that could include militarily. If DRC accepted, they could legitimately use the conflict as a reason to bring in troops.
The big question is how that changes dynamics for everything else once it happens....
For us I dont think its a problem due to our partnership with CATH now, but it would certainly push things in new directions so who knows..

There is every possibility that any war between DRC and Rwanda will escalate beyond those two countries and involve China in some capacity. Have a read of the following report by Michael Rubin… the guy whom everyone was celebrating as a big wig. My thoughts were an extension of his analysis but hey… apparently im some Shane or one of his accomplices … some smooth brains on this forum love to assume dont they.

https://nationalinterest.org/featur...14312?utm_source=email&utm_campaign=web-share

For mine I just don’t understand the general “gotcha” on this forum regarding the Rwanda backed incursion into DRC. This very much has a high chance of being extremely bad for the company. But hey, I’ll let everyone have their fun.

 

[thegh0stwithin]

Time to negotiate, perhaps. Those penalties of lost productivity could be substantial.

Could a case could be taken not only of the actions preventing continued activities, but loss of output, as well as increased costs as a result of inflation and other costs (e.g. the looming tariff war) having creating an unjust financial disadvantage to AVZ. Delays are having real dollar values here. Something to think about, after our "A" Team win the current battles.

 

[Kudos]

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Time to negotiate, perhaps. Those penalties of lost productivity could be substantial.

Could a case could be taken not only of the actions preventing continued activities, but loss of output, as well as increased costs as a result of inflation and other costs (e.g. the looming tariff war) having creating an unjust financial disadvantage to AVZ. Delays are having real dollar values here. Something to think about, after our "A" Team win the current battles.

I am sure the BOD are acutely aware of all the factors at play and are working to a plan to best realise value for shareholders. In fairness, they have managed to pull a few rabbits out of the hat over the last 6 month, so let’s see what they do.

 

[Remark]

Legal? Cominiere is taking the piss surely...

https://x.com/cominiereSA/status/1887089266418741407