AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

Serious question for you mate, I see you own IXR. Thats Uganda isn't it? Do you have a good feel for the mining licence process over there? I don't hold, but it seems to be an AVZ equivalent. And does the register have any Chinese holders?

Hey X

Yeah IXR is Uganda

It has many similarities to AVZ - huge resource (REE's), easy mining, possibilities to develop and benefit the local community, product in demand, part of the green energy transition....all make you feel fluffy and good while you make money

I used to have a good feeling for mining license processes but after all this shit I'm no longer confident of anything

Is Uganda better/worse/same as DRC?

Is the level of corruption enough to get you fucked over like AVZ potentially could be.....don't know

Am I questioning my investment there now....you betchya

I do believe IXR are specifically presenting themselves as a source of REE's to the WEST and outside of China itself and also outside of China's sphere. So maybe that's a plus

No major chinese corporate involvement that I'm aware of

Here's the top 20 from Sept 2021

 

[Rediah]

There's just too much there mate...almost everyday for the last couple of months another new negative development that alludes to being treated like a mushroom investor(kept in the dark and fed bullshit, well fed the positive only as a planet of negative amasses in the background)

In saying everything I've said, I still believe everything Nige has said, I still have faith in Nige and AVZ, but I just don't have faith in the DRC itself, or the DRC legal system or any single department to set this right and then keep it 'right' for that matter, it's clear there's many in positions of power who are totally and utterly corrupt, then add a whole heap of ignorance and what seems to be unjustified national pride/ego in those departments as well.....Can we come out all good, sure, but what's the chances of that happening? 15-36%???

Totally understand.
I have spent 6 months in an underdeveloped country (wont name it) similar to DRC, the corruption is so bad that the law enforcement personnel will appease both perpetrators and the victims by taking , lack of better word, snacks, and will keep dragging the matter as long as they can as they know while both parties are engaged in a battle, they will get benefited from the whole situation. Similarly I have seen they may sell the same property to multiple buyers and let them fight over it in court battles and whoever can then bribe the judges and make more noise will take the goods home without recovering the payments made to the seller as very hard to find the those individuals.
But I never thought I have to witness this myself with so much at stake of my own, hence I have mentally prepared and sit and watch even if it takes 2-3 years for me just to recover my initial investment.

 

[Samus]

Totally understand.
I have spent 6 months in an underdeveloped country (wont name it) similar to DRC, the corruption is so bad that the law enforcement personnel will appease both perpetrators and the victims by taking , lack of better word, snacks, and will keep dragging the matter as long as they can as they know while both parties are engaged in a battle, they will get benefited from the whole situation. Similarly I have seen they may sell the same property to multiple buyers and let them fight over it in court battles and whoever can then bribe the judges and make more noise will take the goods home without recovering the payments made to the seller as very hard to find the those individuals.
But I never thought I have to witness this myself with so much at stake of my own, hence I have mentally prepared and sit and watch even if it takes 2-3 years for me just to recover my initial investment.

That's next level depressing @Rediah shame on you!

 

[Rediah]

That's next level depressing @Rediah shame on you!

I told you guys, i always think the worse, i have lowered my expectations, i poured all my savings in AVZ and here i am, I cant do anything and will hope for the best

 

[Xerof]

Totally understand.
I have spent 6 months in an underdeveloped country (wont name it) similar to DRC, the corruption is so bad that the law enforcement personnel will appease both perpetrators and the victims by taking , lack of better word, snacks, and will keep dragging the matter as long as they can as they know while both parties are engaged in a battle, they will get benefited from the whole situation. Similarly I have seen they may sell the same property to multiple buyers and let them fight over it in court battles and whoever can then bribe the judges and make more noise will take the goods home without recovering the payments made to the seller as very hard to find the those individuals.
But I never thought I have to witness this myself with so much at stake of my own, hence I have mentally prepared and sit and watch even if it takes 2-3 years for me just to recover my initial investment.

Does it start with C and end with oon?

 

[wombat74]

We all knew the sovereign risks when we decided to invest with AVZ, but i am pretty sure we didnt expect what has transpired with Zijin and some corrupt DRC officials..................this is NEXT LEVEL sovereign risk IMO

If we knew that was in the back drop, then i for one wouldnt have treated AVZ as an investment, i would have treated it like LTR.....just a trade opportunity.

DRC / AVZ need to release a JOINT statement clearing the air.............its an embarrassment for both parties.

imo

Totally understand.
I have spent 6 months in an underdeveloped country (wont name it) similar to DRC, the corruption is so bad that the law enforcement personnel will appease both perpetrators and the victims by taking , lack of better word, snacks, and will keep dragging the matter as long as they can as they know while both parties are engaged in a battle, they will get benefited from the whole situation. Similarly I have seen they may sell the same property to multiple buyers and let them fight over it in court battles and whoever can then bribe the judges and make more noise will take the goods home without recovering the payments made to the seller as very hard to find the those individuals.
But I never thought I have to witness this myself with so much at stake of my own, hence I have mentally prepared and sit and watch even if it takes 2-3 years for me just to recover my initial investment.

" I have mentally prepared and sit and watch even if it takes 2-3 years for me just to recover my initial investment."

LOL . You are kidding . You'll be one of the few holding on . Share price will be 5 cents .........Personally I'm saving all
this doom and gloom until we find out more tomorrow . Hopefully a Video interview from Nigel as well . I remain
optimistic for the moment .

 

[Rediah]

Does it start with C and end with oon?

Nah , i wont name it
So I totally agree with @ohreally , some sort of news, real meaningful news, especially from AVZ has to come out and would be more credible if it has a stamp of DRC on it, it will help the investors, and then I dont even mind waiting more. But this silence will keep feeding the trolls and Zijin's narrative.

 

[Roller62]

Hey @Roller62 is there a digital copy of the DRC mining code anywhere? I can't seem to find it, so if you had a link, I'd appreciate it thanks

 

[Retrobyte]

like Bali etc, where the cops will issue you a fine but also give you the option to pay a bribe at a slight discount to the fine

That's Africa in a nutshell

Not just Bali - I lived in Jakarta for two years and every policeman aspired to be a traffic cop because of the .... snacks

 

[Rediah]

like Bali etc, where the cops will issue you a fine but also give you the option to pay a bribe at a slight discount to the fine

That's Africa in a nutshell

Worse thing will be, you HAVE to bribe them to get out of the situation and then you will still have to pay fine that comes your way when you return the rental vehicle, and then there is no way to report it because you will be fined again for bribery, been there

Anyways no more negative talk, i will ONLY think good, good will come, positive energy is needed.

 

[BEISHA]

" I have mentally prepared and sit and watch even if it takes 2-3 years for me just to recover my initial investment."

LOL . You are kidding . You'll be one of the few holding on . Share price will be 5 cents .........Personally I'm saving all
this doom and gloom until we find out more tomorrow . Hopefully a Video interview from Nigel as well . I remain
optimistic for the moment .

You call it DOOM & GLOOM, ................I call it looking at BOTH sides of the EQUATION and being prepared

AVZ holding 36% minimum holding will ensure it wont go to 5c.......that is BONA FIDE DOOM & GLOOM......

Its all a matter of TRUST and what makes you SLEEP well at night.

There is some dudes here with colossal dollars invested, dont blame them for feeling shitty and unsure one little bit.

I still have faith and trust, but the longer this SAD SAGA drags, the more jumpy and anxious I get......

Just sayin.

 

[wombat74]

Cantor Fitzgerald 4/05/22 Just a reminder not everyone is Doom and Gloom

"We view the claims challenging ownership interests as a distraction and expect them to be resolved in the near-term with no negative impact to AVZ."

 

[Winenut]

Cantor Fitzgerald 4/05/22 Just a reminder not everyone is Doom and Gloom

"We view the claims challenging ownership interests as a distraction and expect them to be resolved in the near-term with no negative impact to AVZ."

So Cantor Fitzgerald don't have a clue either by the looks of it...

 

[Xerof]

Thankyou very much Roller

 

[wombat74]

You call it DOOM & GLOOM, ................I call it looking at BOTH sides of the EQUATION and being prepared

AVZ holding 36% minimum holding will ensure it wont go to 5c.......that is BONA FIDE DOOM & GLOOM......

Its all a matter of TRUST and what makes you SLEEP well at night.

There is some dudes here with colossal dollars invested, dont blame them for feeling shitty and unsure one little bit.

I still have faith and trust, but the longer this SAD SAGA drags, the more jumpy and anxious I get......

Just sayin.

View attachment 8160

Nah People's brains get rattled over time . Mentally and emotionally they start to break down . They start to over analyse the situation going over the same things again and again.

 

[BEISHA]

Cantor Fitzgerald 4/05/22 Just a reminder not everyone is Doom and Gloom

"We view the claims challenging ownership interests as a distraction and expect them to be resolved in the near-term with no negative impact to AVZ."

Certainly hope that is the case , another poster also mentioned this , which i am hoping is the case too ( not exact words but you get the drift )

"No operator holding a mining license / production is to have LESS than 51 % control "

At the EOD, thats what matters the most....right ?

I await the FORMAL announcement, hopefully tomorrow.

imo

 

[Bray]

Feels like majority of holders would be happy to sell out tomorrow with a loss on total profits (still walking away with say 100% gain on inital investment instead of 300%) just to get out of the potential issues moving forward.

I for one am not keen at all on sitting in suspension for months on end

 

[Roller62]

You call it DOOM & GLOOM, ................I call it looking at BOTH sides of the EQUATION and being prepared

AVZ holding 36% minimum holding will ensure it wont go to 5c.......that is BONA FIDE DOOM & GLOOM......

Its all a matter of TRUST and what makes you SLEEP well at night.

There is some dudes here with colossal dollars invested, dont blame them for feeling shitty and unsure one little bit.

I still have faith and trust, but the longer this SAD SAGA drags, the more jumpy and anxious I get......

Just sayin.

View attachment 8160

Why oh why are you saying 36%

 

[Sammy_da_Smile]

I couldn't help myself, had to reply to this, let's see if he replies


View attachment 8162

Nice one! I figured it was interesting.

Yeh there were no tags or anything, popped up in a net search this morning. I generally have a geez to see what is new out there.

 

[CeckRaiseFold]

yep and if Zijin gets away with $33m for 15%, what does that value the company at for some in the mean time, dont worry abt what we value it at, the market will decide once we open again, and it'd be short term ugly I dare say, sentiment would be terrible initially? we'll be stuck in this until production to get back close to old highs if we end up with 36%

Yep, short term sell off by retail investors scared away or invested at too high a SP is to be expected. As @wombat74 says, people's brains get rattled. But I do not think we have to wait for production to be above $1 again. clarity on ownership, BFS, funding and FID will suffice. Based on the simple Nett Present Value calc I shared a few days ago, a 20 year 10MTpa mine will easily create between USD 10 to 15bln NPV. At the unlikely 36% AVZ ownership that still justifies a SP above AUD 1.
So, if you bought in recently at AUD 0.75 or $1, yeah you might not want to hang around and wait but like many of us LTH any 5 or 10 cent SP increase is another 100% value increase. If you do not need the cash tomorrow, why sell, buy the dip!