Winenut
Go AVZ!
Classic
Even gave me a little compliment
How sweet
Classic
Yeah cheers mate. I will be off it the minute the seizures in my chest stop. Like I'm having a frigging heart attack so can't stop yet.( Blood clots and part lung collapse from covid)Careful with Lyrica mate hey! take it easy on it! had a few mates that got messed up by it.
Is @Scarpa here yet ??With HC being unbearable I hope to receive some knowledgeable feedback on this forum and reach some sort of informed view on what our investment is worth.
I've made the simplest of NPV calculations for the Manono mine and would be grateful for informed views on my assumptions so I can update (and share) my simple calculations. I have seen other versions of this in the past on HC and I'm sure some of you have done this before with better knowledge of mining economics than my O&G experience allows me to bring to the table.
This is my summary input/output:
View attachment 7895
key assumptions:
-) initial mine at 700KT/pa SC6% and 45KTpa PLS (as per DFS) start in mid 2024
-) continue building to double initial capacity in 2026 of 1.5MTpa SC6% and 90KTpa PLS
-) Total cost of the mine $1.2bln
-) Transport and Opex cost $300/Te
-) Long term price SC6% = $1,500/Te; PLS = $15,000/Te
-) Tax rate 33.5% (inclusive of royalties non-ferrous materials)
In my view this is the low-side scenario. Further Tin revenues, mine capacity & ore reserves expansion and LiOH plant opportunities can be added but I'm interested to know what a reasonable initial FID commitment can deliver and consequently what a reasonable share price is either at time of production or a Take-Over soon after FID. It is nowhere near $10, but any switched-on investor doing these simple calcs can also see that this is a stock worth north of 1 USD per share EVEN IF we end up with just 36% stake in Datchcom.
Constructive feedback much appreciated, thanks in advance!
Gold!I've put out a bit of berley now keen to see if anyone takes the bait...
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For the benefit of the good folk here here's the link .... https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zfmkrj6
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Someone is excited. Sorry I don't understand this Twitter business. Just a screenshot below. Sounds positive.
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Xerof that tweet on the bird was dead on!
Tried to post this earlier this morning but attachments didn’t work - looks like this JohnBrown character is making a last ditch effort to downramp AVZ this weekend prior to expected good news next week … hope it works this time
At 5.30 in the morning???Straight up there are degrees of losing and degrees of winning. I firmly believe we will be on the degrees of winning side of things when this short drama is over. Remember dont catastrophise. Focus on fundamentals. Cheers yes Im drunk.
Totally agree, everything is just NOISE until i get an official statement from the BOD.As much as I would like this to be true, we need an announcement from Nigel re ML and also something directly from the DRC gov affirming the position of AVZ ownership on Wednesday. Anything less would just be food for the trolls and fuel for the shorter rumour mill. Twitter IMO is just more speculation and confirmation bias both up and down ramping. GTLAH
That is reassuring to say the least! It shows that our lawyers are capable and experienced in the African sphere. Thanks for posting.It was mentioned a while back that DLA Piper have worked with AVZ previously, so good to see they have a winning track record in international arbitration about mining rights ....
DLA Piper secures victory for the Republic of Guinea in multi-billion euro dispute with BSGR | DLA Piper
DLA Piper has obtained a significant win for the Republic of Guinea in its multi-billion euro investment arbitration against BSGR. The arbitration concerned development rights over the world's largest iron deposit, Simandou.www.dlapiper.com
DLA Piper secures victory for the Republic of Guinea in multi-billion euro dispute with BSGR
26 May 2022
DLA Piper has obtained a significant win for the Republic of Guinea in its multi-billion euro investment arbitration against BSGR. The arbitration concerned development rights over the world’s largest iron deposit, Simandou.
In a landmark award issued on 18 May 2022, the ICSID tribunal rejected BSGR's claims in their entirety. BSGR, whose ultimate beneficiary is Israeli diamond billionaire Beny Steinmetz, had argued that the State had expropriated its mining rights in Simandou and the adjacent Zogota deposit. The tribunal fully adopted the Republic of Guinea's position that BSGR had acquired its rights through an extensive bribery scheme implemented primarily between 2006 and 2010. The tribunal was convinced by the overwhelming evidence gathered by the Republic of Guinea, including contracts of corruption, evidence of payments of millions of dollars to various intermediaries, as well as audio and video recordings of key individuals, all taking place over several continents.
Prior to the arbitration, DLA Piper led the investigation into BSGR’s acquisition of its contested rights. The investigation involved unprecedented cooperation between Guinean, Swiss, American, Israeli and other criminal authorities.
The DLA Piper team was led by Global Co-Chair of International Arbitration, Michael Ostrove, and supported by partner Théobald Naud, Senior Consultant Scott Horton and Senior Associate Clémentine Emery. Former associates Sârra-Tilila Bounfour and Andrea Lapunzina were also key team members.
Michael Ostrove said:
“This award is a major victory not only for the Republic of Guinea but for all of Africa. It proves that a determined State can prevail against powerful multinational businesses in the fight against corruption. The successful outcome also demonstrates once again DLA Piper’s strength in dealing with complex international arbitration matters along with its deep understanding of and commitment to the African market. We could accomplish this result only because of our ability to work closely with devoted colleagues in Guinea in addition to our international arbitration colleagues around the world. We are delighted that the State achieved such a resounding result.”