AVZ Discussion 2022

[Scoota30]

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

I would imagine that the $6.78AUD is probably not far off of the mark for actual fair value selling the entire asset as is now, however if we sell it all off I have my doubts we will get that price given the controversy surrounding it, anywhere between $2-$4 is where it will land IMO

Just think though, at $6.78AUD per share, thats $15.8 Billion USD to control the lithium market over the next 30 years.....
To put that in perspective, it's estimated the Joe Biden Administration has sent/spent $75B USD in Ukraine.
Tesla also has something like $25B USD on hand at the moment too, it would make sense for them to split/partner with CATL so that it ends up with direct ownership from China and the US (bargaining deal) and then some other Major miner takes majority ownership of the JV to actually mine it, say a European owned miner like Glencore..... Hell even through the Saudis in there somewhere.
I am sure there are plenty of people interested in getting a piece of the pie, maybe delisting is part of the plan to complete a sale....

 

[RHyNO]

Jesus whoever takes us out will make an absolute fortune. Should invest in which every company takes us over post MoU

That’s a call and a half right there! As long as hydrogen doesn’t take over

 

[robface]

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

Interesting to see how close to this figure DLA Piper gave the ICSID/ICC as total compensation.

 

[JasonM]

I'm just guessing at this point, but keep in mind that holding a share isn't really holding anything.
It's a record of ownership.
The registry of ownership of shares will be at automic.

dont think so. with a custodian broker the individual shareholder doesnt get a hin, the broker fronts the transaction and uses their hin. automic would track shares against a hin. As an example, one of the risks that is always stated against a custodian broker is if the broker goes belly up, then your shares are lost as they are held in the brokers name at the exchange. I have multiple broker accounts, with some shares in the custodian account (IB) and others in my own hin with comsec and marketech.

of course, just my understanding and hence why I'm trying to clarify how a delisting works with a custodian account.

 

[Rediah]

That’s a call and a half right there! As long as hydrogen doesn’t take over

Not at all worried about Hydrogen

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

Don't forget we have a FLOOR price already given to us by the cunts at Zijin.
Remember they filed gormlessly with the ICC in conjunction with the ever-dense Cominiere fuckwits.

https://avzminerals.com.au/asx-announcements (Ann 15th May 2023)

They themselves valued the project at $5.66B USD
So 75% = $4.245B USD = $6.424B AUD = $1.83 AUD per-share (approx)


This is the price our corrupt slimy fuck-witted little detractors have placed on the project. Thanks for the minimum price boys.

This was before our 47% resource upgrade to an eye watering 842MT @ 1.61%Li2O !

This was without the whopping numbers of the BFS which is still to be released !

Now add that to the floor price


Bring it on home BOD



#FuckMUPANDE

@Flight996 not sure why, but I'm unable to see your message unless some else replies to you, so I'm using @TDITD as a proxy...

Some great insight from you both... I agree, 90c won't cut it!

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

Can we all report Der Giest and all his accounts in X?

Is Tendoji from HC Der Giest (SE) also??? That would mean his "HKTD" is Peter Huljich and or Leonard Math?!

 

[Flekman11]

Just so you all know. Ty Ludbrook is the future son in law of the good old media man the “fixer”. That is who pays the bills, for the kids anyway. Ask Russell Crowe for a character reference

 

[RHyNO]

Not at all worried about Hydrogen

Ha ha ha how great is that! I knew it was odd how eagerly they went on about the engine and power in the commercial releases! Thanks for sharing that. Huge load of my mind. I guess the best option is all that lithium we have “good legal title” on! Settle for $4!

 

[LX600]

Mali Lithium (LLL) such a good lithium mine, is being taken over by Ganfeng. What is Australian gov doing? They think all these Mali and Monono developed, who would care about Australian lithium anymore?

 

[dollarbills]

Mali Lithium (LLL) such a good lithium mine, is being taken over by Ganfeng. What is Australian gov doing? They think all these Mali and Monono developed, who would care about Australian lithium anymore?

I’m a holder of LLL and super disappointed with the result so close to commissioning. Yes there is now certainty of an exit after months of suspension however the Chinese have gotten another bargain at the expense of long suffering holders.

With Goulamina now fully in control of the Chinese, surely the West must look at Monono as a crucial asset to not allow to fall to the Chinese also..

 

[LOCKY82]

Would love a TO in the next six months personally, dreams are free anyway, feeling the pinch a bit and loads of plans on hold due to finances, looking to have our first kid,, career change, home improvements, all a bit harder or stressful for now.
As things are now What are the chances of a TO before all rulings are made? If someone buys us out they'll likely still have to deal with Zijin?
In my head seems like we'll have to sell to those cunts or have full clarity on everything before anyone would make an offer.

Shit is mentally draining, hang in there all

And remember

 

[zeeb0t]

Question, maybe for @zeeb0t
Does this forum keep running if AVZ is no longer a listed company?
I hope/assume so, but thought worth clarifying.

Yep keeps running

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Is Tendoji from HC Der Giest (SE) also??? That would mean his "HKTD" is Peter Huljich and or Leonard Math?!

Yep

 

[Dijon101]

dont think so. with a custodian broker the individual shareholder doesnt get a hin, the broker fronts the transaction and uses their hin. automic would track shares against a hin. As an example, one of the risks that is always stated against a custodian broker is if the broker goes belly up, then your shares are lost as they are held in the brokers name at the exchange. I have multiple broker accounts, with some shares in the custodian account (IB) and others in my own hin with comsec and marketech.

of course, just my understanding and hence why I'm trying to clarify how a delisting works with a custodian account.

Let us know as I'm with SAXO and in a similar position.

 

[PutUsernameHere]

I've got the same query. I've emailed interactive brokers a few days ago and have heard sweet f all. if you do get a response please post it and I will likewise. cheers

@JNRB I've got the same problem, a good portion of mine are held via my Netwealth Super account. I got the below in response. I corrected them that it's been in suspension for a while and not delisted yet, but tom-ae-to, tom-ah-to right? Basically sounds like ownership remains until something happens with the company or I eventually close down my account (not for decades).


"Hi Lochlan,

It looks like this asset has been delisted for a while, so you won't be able to sell down the asset within the Netwealth account, the asset will still reflect in the account given you hold units with the asset.

If there is an offer to eventually sell the units, a notification will be sent to yourself (our corporate actions team will issue the communication), otherwise the asset would remain on the account and when we receive an account closure request, we'll issue the suspended asset notification.

Based on the options provided on the notification, you may have the option for Netwealth to acquire the asset when a closure request is received."

 

[Mr_Tones83]

@JNRB I've got the same problem, a good portion of mine are held via my Netwealth Super account. I got the below in response. I corrected them that it's been in suspension for a while and not delisted yet, but tom-ae-to, tom-ah-to right? Basically sounds like ownership remains until something happens with the company or I eventually close down my account (not for decades).


"Hi Lochlan,

It looks like this asset has been delisted for a while, so you won't be able to sell down the asset within the Netwealth account, the asset will still reflect in the account given you hold units with the asset.

If there is an offer to eventually sell the units, a notification will be sent to yourself (our corporate actions team will issue the communication), otherwise the asset would remain on the account and when we receive an account closure request, we'll issue the suspended asset notification.

Based on the options provided on the notification, you may have the option for Netwealth to acquire the asset when a closure request is received."

Once the company delists, shares should convert from CHESS sponsored to Issuer Sponsored.
That means that where they are most likely held on HIN or in custody with a broker currently, going forward it will be Automic that manages the share register as issuer sponsored only. Shares will be held on an SRN, which is kind of like a HIN, but is an individual SRN for each holding.
I would say that Automic will be the place to get info on how the change over happens.
I don't think the person you heard from at Netwealth had much of an idea.

 

[Charbella]

Interesting development this morning.
LLL sold out to Ganfeng.
I hope the gringos are not all talk and no action.

 

[Azzler]

Once the company delists, shares should convert from CHESS sponsored to Issuer Sponsored.
That means that where they are most likely held on HIN or in custody with a broker currently, going forward it will be Automic that manages the share register as issuer sponsored only. Shares will be held on an SRN, which is kind of like a HIN, but is an individual SRN for each holding.
I would say that Automic will be the place to get info on how the change over happens.
I don't think the person you heard from at Netwealth had much of an idea.

That's how I thought it would be too. Cheers.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

LLL shareholders got properly shafted by the Mail Junta who worked with Gangfeng to screw the company. China risk is nearly as destructive as Africa risk these days.

Thankfully we’ve got a very messy and intertwined court case going on with ICSID who I think have the reach to dissuade the DRC government from the same actions.

Comparing Gangfeng pp of LLL puts out buyout at around ~55cents which would most likely be rejected by avz shareholders. Messy times over there and Africa are absolutely fucking up a change to develop their country without being constantly shafted by China alone.