AVZ Discussion 2022

[JNRB]

Hi all, I have another question re delisting.
Does anyone know what happens to holdings that are held with a custodian model trading platform rather than CHESS?
Something like IG. Does anything change?
(I'll email IG also but from experience they are shit at customer service)

 

[lellep]

Hi Lucas Don Velor

Copper fans often use 3% of in-ground ore as a rule of thumb. There are other heuristics, but this one is popular. I am inclined to use at least 3%, rather than 1% as a guide to the value of the Manono resource due to Manono's homogeneous high grade ore with few impurities, and its near-surface location that requires little stripping.

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Assuming a lithium metal price of $US15,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US15,000/tonne = $US93.8 billion ($AU142 billion).

Three percent of $AU142 billion is $AU4.26 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU3.20 billion. Since AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, that's 90c per share.

While 90c is just a guesstimate and nowhere near the resource's true market value or what we will accept, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price that has occurred since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Oh, and mine certainly are not for sale at a miserly 90c.

Cheers
F

You forgot about the tin

 

[LX600]

Excuse me, but lithium Metal price is not $15000USD per ton. It is $100k USD per ton.

…

Hi Lucas Don Velor

Copper fans often use 3% of in-ground ore as a rule of thumb. There are other heuristics, but this one is popular. I am inclined to use at least 3%, rather than 1% as a guide to the value of the Manono resource due to Manono's homogeneous high grade ore with few impurities, and its near-surface location that requires little stripping.

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Assuming a lithium metal price of $US15,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US15,000/tonne = $US93.8 billion ($AU142 billion).

Three percent of $AU142 billion is $AU4.26 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU3.20 billion. Since AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, that's 90c per share.

While 90c is just a guesstimate and nowhere near the resource's true market value or what we will accept, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price that has occurred since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Oh, and mine certainly are not for sale at a miserly 90c.

Cheers
F

 

[Frank]

 

[Flight996]

Excuse me, but lithium Metal price is not $15000USD per ton. It is $100k USD per ton.

…

Yes, you are correct.
Lemme recalculate.

 

[Xerof]

Yes, you are correct.
Lemme recalculate.

 

[Stockinvesting]

You forgot about the tin

I'd take 90 cents in a heartbeat.

 

[Flight996]

Excuse me, but lithium Metal price is not $15000USD per ton. It is $100k USD per ton.

…

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

 

[Samus]

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Jesus whoever takes us out will make an absolute fortune. Should invest in which every company takes us over post MoU

 

[JasonM]

Hi all, I have another question re delisting.
Does anyone know what happens to holdings that are held with a custodian model trading platform rather than CHESS?
Something like IG. Does anything change?
(I'll email IG also but from experience they are shit at customer service)

I've got the same query. I've emailed interactive brokers a few days ago and have heard sweet f all. if you do get a response please post it and I will likewise. cheers

 

[Azzler]

I've got the same query. I've emailed interactive brokers a few days ago and have heard sweet f all. if you do get a response please post it and I will likewise. cheers

I'm just guessing at this point, but keep in mind that holding a share isn't really holding anything.
It's a record of ownership.
The registry of ownership of shares will be at automic.

 

[Pokok]

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

I love the enthusiasm , I predict spot price of lithium might increase by 20% by xmas but to even think $6.78 is a fucken dream when we have already seen what shit fuckery goes on there , don't get me wrong your calculations are correct and I would love it , but really its just a pipe dream calculation , did I upset anybody

 

[Azzler]

I love the enthusiasm , I predict spot price of lithium might increase by 20% by xmas but to even think $6.78 is a fucken dream when we have already seen what shit fuckery goes on there , don't get me wrong your calculations are correct and I would love it , but really its just a pipe dream calculation , did I upset anybody

All it takes is 2 or more genuine bidders to get something resembling true value.

 

[Pokok]

All it takes is 2 or more genuine bidders to get something resembling true value.

Hi mate , I just can't see who the 2 might be , i've traded since 1985 I have never seen so much disheartening circumstances I my life , I really feel for the people that bought in near high with the promise of a great return , I did not sell at ATH because I saw a fantastic ride same as them

 

[Flight996]

I love the enthusiasm , I predict spot price of lithium might increase by 20% by xmas but to even think $6.78 is a fucken dream when we have already seen what shit fuckery goes on there , don't get me wrong your calculations are correct and I would love it , but really its just a pipe dream calculation , did I upset anybody

Not at all Pokok. This is a gentleman's forum, and I continue to struggle to make sense of this shit-show anyway.

Regardless of the guesstimate, if Nigel and his board cannot achieve a negotiated outcome that we can all live with, the ICSID is likely to give the DRC a multi-billion dollar prostatic massage...ouch

Cheers
F

 

[Scoota30]

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

I would imagine that the $6.78AUD is probably not far off of the mark for actual fair value selling the entire asset as is now, however if we sell it all off I have my doubts we will get that price given the controversy surrounding it, anywhere between $2-$4 is where it will land IMO

Just think though, at $6.78AUD per share, thats $15.8 Billion USD to control the lithium market over the next 30 years.....
To put that in perspective, it's estimated the Joe Biden Administration has sent/spent $75B USD in Ukraine.
Tesla also has something like $25B USD on hand at the moment too, it would make sense for them to split/partner with CATL so that it ends up with direct ownership from China and the US (bargaining deal) and then some other Major miner takes majority ownership of the JV to actually mine it, say a European owned miner like Glencore..... Hell even through the Saudis in there somewhere.
I am sure there are plenty of people interested in getting a piece of the pie, maybe delisting is part of the plan to complete a sale....

 

[RHyNO]

Jesus whoever takes us out will make an absolute fortune. Should invest in which every company takes us over post MoU

That’s a call and a half right there! As long as hydrogen doesn’t take over

 

[robface]

Thanks LX600 for the correction, and lellep for reminding me of the tin, and TDITD for Zijin/Cominiere's project valuation.

Here is the revised calculation using $US112,000/ton battery grade lithium metal:

Manono has a total mineral resource of 842 million tonnes grading at 1.61% lithium oxide (Li2O), containing 13.52 million tonnes of Li2O. The split is: Roche Dure, 669 million tonnes grading at 1.63% Li2O, and Carrière de l'Este: 173 million tonnes grading 1.58% Li2O.

Based on a spot lithium metal price of $US112,000 per tonne, the aggregate value of Manono's lithium resource is: 842 million tonnes x 1.61% Li2O x 0.464 (lithium content) x $US112,000/tonne = $US704.7 billion ($AU1,064 billion).

Three percent of $AU1,064 billion is $AU31.9 billion.

AVZ holds 75% of the resource, which equates to $AU23.9 billion. AVZ has 3,528,729,748 shares on issue, which is $AU6.78 per share PLUS tin credits.

While $6.78 is just a guesstimate, which does not take into account a wide range of variables and costs, it takes into account the 80% drop in lithium price since 2022. In any case, it's still a whole lot better than the 15c being bandied around by some over at the other place.

Cheers
F

Interesting to see how close to this figure DLA Piper gave the ICSID/ICC as total compensation.

 

[JasonM]

I'm just guessing at this point, but keep in mind that holding a share isn't really holding anything.
It's a record of ownership.
The registry of ownership of shares will be at automic.

dont think so. with a custodian broker the individual shareholder doesnt get a hin, the broker fronts the transaction and uses their hin. automic would track shares against a hin. As an example, one of the risks that is always stated against a custodian broker is if the broker goes belly up, then your shares are lost as they are held in the brokers name at the exchange. I have multiple broker accounts, with some shares in the custodian account (IB) and others in my own hin with comsec and marketech.

of course, just my understanding and hence why I'm trying to clarify how a delisting works with a custodian account.