Excellent Tweet by Jens
Jens Emil Soderlund
@emil_jens
$AVZ so ppl asking me what’s next - not an easy question to answer IMO Note: Below are my views based on observations and local intel from Congolese;
1. MMGACIC huge tick, as been booted and this has now to get back to DRC higher powers (PR, MoP, MoJ, Mom etc), so question remains will this be enough to readdress our MoU, which has been drafted up, reviewed and ready to sign ? Personally, I don’t think so as geo political landscape is getting muddier and more complicated (elections - EU has withdrawn their team for coming elections);
2.
As a local Congolese contact commented re EU withdrawal of electoral experts “IF THERE ARE REAL ELECTIONS” So he is hinting will this be another rigged election ?
3. The two main opponents to Mr Felix Tshisekedi, who are the most popular are Katumbi and Fayulu - leading contender more Moise Katumbi. Best outcome for us SHs is IF one of these contenders or both bring up “AVZ file” as an exemple how corrupt Sama2 has been and use this file as debate topic (as here Australian followed their Law and Minining Code down to a tee, and see you let Chinese Zijin steal it out from under their nose) or
4.
Will any opponent go as far as calling out the PR as a traitor ((selling out his country, as in still too much corruption) and which still carries the death sentence in DRC)), but I doubt this will happen as society / government will be thrown into kaos and even a sound mind of any opponent wouldn’t want this for their People / country, as all know democracies are not built over a day.
5.
ICC / Washington / ICSID. It is well known in local circles that the Cominiere informed his superiors (MoP, MoM, MoJ and higher up to PR, that AVZ has done nada in PR15775, as in not proving up any resource in that area - we all know this is an outright lie (CdL and more), once this is known and proven to higher powers, this hopefully will - minimum - move the boarder line to original ML decree (where South was much higher up than so claimed Manono Lithium (Zijin)), and North originally was to provided to us as an extended exploration license) Conclusion, with all above taken into consideration, worst case we will have an MoU / ML for the “original” South, the million dollar question is how soon or after elections Q1 next year under a new PM (like VK) and where MoP is moved to some other small ministerial function.
So yes, IMO Mr Tshisekedi will be re-elected again, whether rightfully or not. In the meantime, we will just have to witness Zijin drilling on an area of Manono (since November 15), part of which drillings has already been proven up with the blessing of corrupt Cominiere; Lisette, Célestin and Adele
#Zijin but there will IMO be consequences here (as in at least moving the Manono Lithium further North). Next couple of months will be a nervy one for all, both for locals and us foreign investors and hope that the higher powers in DRC will take ICC further findings seriously and address AVZ file, accordingly. As for ICSID - any incumbent would have to take this seriously, last trump card - that has to disappear - otherwise no more funding from current stalled 1bn USD World Bank funds !!
Jens Emil Soderlund