AVZ Discussion 2022

[BRICK]

One battle at a time.

What roasting would you have particularly given them?

Well.... not a spit roasting

 

[wombat74]

I disagree in regards to Felix agenda. His processes required to eliminate corruption is unknowable to us.

The complexities of the geopolitical structure of DRC are beyond the scope of average AVZ investor. None of us can really make any absolute comments on his administration.

It seems that remnants of the previous government still remain whose support is required for the formation of the coalition government.

Its unrealistic to presume that x amount of years of corruption can be cut out in one fell swoop. I suspect Felix doing deals with devils to stay in power, in order to continue to fight corruption. Could be also to continue lining his pockets.

Your comment on Felix caring about AVZ or Law, could just as easily be inverted to say Manono could be very close to shipping spod right now if he didn't care about law.

Felix promoted CKK . The President and the MoM of mines have handed over responsibility of the Manono Project to Cominiere and their Chinese masters . All this after CKK was found guilty of corruption .

 

[timb89]

Felix promoted CKK . The President and the MoM of mines have handed over responsibility of the Manono Project to Cominiere and their Chinese masters . All this after CKK was found guilty of corruption .

I wish he hadn't but I can also entertain the possibility that letting someone captain a sinking ship isn't a promotion.

 

[timb89]

I agree, the complexities are a minefield. I do wonder if a takeover offer would even be approved internally? I know we tend to think that the Chinese are all powerful in the DRC, but the fact is we are still here and in their way. If they had all the power, they would be mining Manono and have complete control. There is clearly a push from many internally to move away from Chinese ownership. Examples are numerous eg renegotiation of copper & cobalt deals with Sicomines.
Part of me thinks that a takeover from any Chinese entity might not even be viable. Recall that detractors convinced FT that we were here simply to flip the project, so clearly it was a concern of his.
SURELY they would have lobbed in a bid by now, given all of the effort they have put in to stall & steal the project.
Not clear cut at all, and starts to make less sense the more I dwell on it.

To add, the recent MOU DRC signed with European Union as well as Lobito Corridor being supported by USA.

EU, DRC, Zambia Forge Raw Material Partnerships, Develop Lobito Corridor

Today, at the Global Gateway Forum taking place in Brussels, the EU signed three Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with partners to develop critical

www.miragenews.com

China having control of Manono, stolen from Western ally will have ramifications for above.

Main point is that to say "AVZ don't have Manono, there FT is enemy" is (whilst possibly true) is to simplistic and above our pay grades.

 

[SilentOne]

I wish he hadn't but I can also entertain the possibility that letting someone captain a sinking ship isn't a promotion.

Tim,

You are exactly right in my opinion - Special K will have all the accountability lumped onto him as time passes and I am sure he will go out with a bang and not a whimper.

Someone from the DRC ultimately needs to wear the accountability and it wont be the President or his Ministers.

Just a thought bubble.

SilentOne.

 

[wombat74]

I agree, the complexities are a minefield. I do wonder if a takeover offer would even be approved internally? I know we tend to think that the Chinese are all powerful in the DRC, but the fact is we are still here and in their way. If they had all the power, they would be mining Manono and have complete control. There is clearly a push from many internally to move away from Chinese ownership. Examples are numerous eg renegotiation of copper & cobalt deals with Sicomines.
Part of me thinks that a takeover from any Chinese entity might not even be viable. Recall that detractors convinced FT that we were here simply to flip the project, so clearly it was a concern of his.
SURELY they would have lobbed in a bid by now, given all of the effort they have put in to stall & steal the project.
Not clear cut at all, and starts to make less sense the more I dwell on it.

Could it be the Chinese plan of attack is to have AVZ fully commit to ICSID ?

 

[SilentOne]

Could it be the Chinese plan of attack is to have AVZ fully commit to ICSID ?

Wombat,

I am intrigued by your thinking?


SilentOne

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Why would they do that Wombat? they want DRC to be shunned by the western world forevermore?

 

[timb89]

Could it be the Chinese plan of attack is to have AVZ fully commit to ICSID ?

Can you elaborate to what end would this be their 4D chess plan?

 

[M.Bison]

Can you elaborate to what end would this be their 4D chess plan?

I would say the suggestion is that AVZ is doing the legwork in terms of countering Chinese corruption. In that sense, we are the bad guys. This allows DRC to maintain amicable relationships in terms of the very large construction and development contracts in place with Chinese firms in DRC.
Who knows, there is likely enough factors to make your head spin. I would say the sad fact of the matter is the DRC is not even remotely set up to handle its mineral wealth.
As stated before, I am very happy that Zijin are so openly involved in this situation. They have tangible assets that can and will be accessed by ICC/ICSID. China is a member state of ICSID after all. Whilst people can argue that the DRC will not pay us what is owed, I don't think the same argument can be applied to Zijin. If they take ownership of Manono then we will be all over them with litigation with full backing of ICSID.

 

[SilentOne]

I would say the suggestion is that AVZ is doing the legwork in terms of countering Chinese corruption. In that sense, we are the bad guys. This allows DRC to maintain amicable relationships in terms of the very large construction and development contracts in place with Chinese firms in DRC.
Who knows, there is likely enough factors to make your head spin. I would say the sad fact of the matter is the DRC is not even remotely set up to handle its mineral wealth.
As stated before, I am very happy that Zijin are so openly involved in this situation. They have tangible assets that can and will be accessed by ICC/ICSID. China is a member state of ICSID after all. Whilst people can argue that the DRC will not pay us what is owed, I don't think the same argument can be applied to Zijin. If they take ownership of Manono then we will be all over them with litigation with full backing of ICSID.

And dont they have Asset in Australia?

 

[robface]

There you go . Remuneration/ Bonuses being one . Did we get any bang for our buck out of Marius Mihigo ? Personally I'm pissed off no one thought to take a photo of Nigel's recent meeting with the President . Or the previous meeting for that matter . Maybe there was a legitimate reason .Opportunity missed imo . Amateur hour . What was the vibe like between the 2 of them ?

Didn't someone say on here it wasn't even a face to face, explains why there was no picture.

 

[M.Bison]

And dont they have Asset in Australia?

Yes. Norton gold fields. Don't know its value but claims: Contained gold of 11.75Moz with grade of 0.89g/t.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I disagree in regards to Felix agenda. His processes required to eliminate corruption is unknowable to us.

The complexities of the geopolitical structure of DRC are beyond the scope of average AVZ investor. None of us can really make any absolute comments on his administration.

It seems that remnants of the previous government still remain whose support is required for the formation of the coalition government.

Its unrealistic to presume that x amount of years of corruption can be cut out in one fell swoop. I suspect Felix doing deals with devils to stay in power, in order to continue to fight corruption. Could be also to continue lining his pockets.

Your comment on Felix caring about AVZ or Law, could just as easily be inverted to say Manono could be very close to shipping spod right now if he didn't care about law.

Felix promoted CKK . The President and the MoM of mines have handed over responsibility of the Manono Project to Cominiere and their Chinese masters . All this after CKK was found guilty of corruption .

Tim,

You are exactly right in my opinion - Special K will have all the accountability lumped onto him as time passes and I am sure he will go out with a bang and not a whimper.

Someone from the DRC ultimately needs to wear the accountability and it wont be the President or his Ministers.

Just a thought bubble.

SilentOne.

Why would Felix simply not stop the ship from sinking rather than hatching some bizarre plan to let CKK be the fall guy while his vision of a battery hub in the DRC is potentially delayed in international arbitration courts?

Felix is on board with the mantra of resource nationalism. They want a bigger cut of the takings and ultimately aren't afraid to rat fuck us to get it if we won't do a deal as they see the lithium as their property. He literally promoted CKK by Presidential order after the purported termination of the Dathcom JVA and the initiation of the ICSID proceedings. This is all happening on his watch imo

If Felix really believed in AVZ running all of the pride lands he would have signed the MoU before the vote on MMGA. But instead he waited to see if a better option was available. The gringos obviously got him shook. But I think that has more to do with trying to avoid sanctions on his friends than anything else.

The ICSID is the only thing keeping us in the game which to me is a clear sign that he doesn't give a fuck about the law. The DRC mining code is crystal clear about reasons available to the state for termination of a PE. It shouldn't require outside forces to encourage him and the MoM to follow the path of reason but here we are.

 

[BRICK]

What a crock this all is..

While MMGA get away with murder i get my trading platform calling me about buying small parcels of shares on a low SOI stock i hold.

So bent this game.

 

[SilentOne]

Why would Felix simply not stop the ship from sinking rather than hatching some bizarre plan to let CKK be the fall guy while his vision of a battery hub in the DRC is potentially delayed in international arbitration courts?

Felix is on board with the mantra of resource nationalism. They want a bigger cut of the takings and ultimately aren't afraid to rat fuck us to get it if we won't do a deal as they see the lithium as their property. He literally promoted CKK by Presidential order after the purported termination of the Dathcom JVA and the initiation of the ICSID proceedings. This is all happening on his watch imo

If Felix really believed in AVZ running all of the pride lands he would have signed the MoU before the vote on MMGA. But instead he waited to see if a better option was available. The gringos obviously got him shook. But I think that has more to do with trying to avoid sanctions on his friends than anything else.

The ICSID is the only thing keeping us in the game which to me is a clear sign that he doesn't give a fuck about the law. The DRC mining code is crystal clear about reasons available to the state for termination of a PE. It shouldn't require outside forces to encourage him and the MoM to follow the path of reason but here we are.

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From what I understand Felix wanted $13 billion from the World Bank which was knocked back. The World Bank has delayed $1 Billion which the DRC was to receive because of corruption and a lack of transparency. The Chinese are not likely going to provide that sought of funding.

I think my money is on the ICSID, ICC and by default the World Bank.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, but I think the World Bank trumps SinBin.


SilentOne

 

[Colaci78]

Didn't someone say on here it wasn't even a face to face, explains why there was no picture.

Yes, I read that also.

 

[wombat74]

Wombat,

I am intrigued by your thinking?


SilentOne

More time wasting . Someone said previously it's an 18 month to 3year process .

 

[9cardomaha]

More time wasting . Someone said previously it's an 18 month to 3year process .

Getting back to business.

The updates on ICSID last week were to set a timetable for proceedings, and then also set the emergency requests of AVZ against the DRC. Procedural order 1 is the timeline:

1. November 23, 2023: DRC submits a response to the request for provisional measures.
2. November 30, 2023: AVZ file a reply to the request for provisional measures.
3. December 11, 2023: hearing on the request for provisional measures involving all parties.

As an emergency request, and having Christmas, this should be ruled on before 24th December. I believe we have a strong case, given our win at the ICC and the ICSID chairman even mentioning the ICC win as a basis for the final 'measures' which will be heard on 11th December.

AVZ's emergency requests

• Suspend PR 13359 and PR 15775.
• Halt all mining activities by entities other than Dathcom within the mentioned permits.
• Restrain the DRC from taking any administrative actions prejudicial to the Claimants' interests.

DRC just submitted their responses to these requests, saying they are 'just another tactic to stall the project' - herp derp.

DLA will respond by the 30th and make additional claims, counter arguements against DRC etc. The arbitrator will then issue final requests to be heard o the 5th December. I don't think they will increase or decrease, the three are likely to just remain as is. TICSID tribunal will also determine the fine or penalty for breaking the injunction before the hearing.

I believe that once we have the measures in place, we can start to discuss, also because DLA will be looking to submit damages claims after securing the injunctions. Which will provide more leverage on coming to a negotiated settlement.

For the actual timeline if we need to go through with it all, it is below:

1. March 1, 2024: Claimants submit a Memorandum.
2. July 26, 2024: Production of documents and objections deadline for both parties.
3. August 9, 2024: Claimants and Respondent provide responses to objections to document production.
4. September 27, 2024: Tribunal issues a decision on document production.
5. May 5, 2025: Identification of witnesses and experts for cross-examination by both Claimants and Respondent.
6. June 2-4, 2025 (June 5 reserved): Scheduled hearing involving all parties.

 

[wombat74]

Didn't someone say on here it wasn't even a face to face, explains why there was no picture.

"Recent correspondence between AVZ and the DRC Government has been constructive and highlights the clearly positive and ongoing relationship between both parties. Importantly, and most recently, AVZ’s Managing Director, Nigel Ferguson, sat with His Excellency President Tshisekedi, to discuss these matters." AVZ 9/10/23.

Sorry I was tripped up by the , "recently Nigel sat with His Excellency President Tshisekedi to discuss matters " thingy . Misinterpreted the meaning. Wasn't aware someone had cleared up the misunderstanding . Cheers .