AVZ Discussion 2022

[Hodlandwin69]

Likely have to wait for ICSID which who knows when it is? 6 months away?

ICC has shown to be a nothing avenue. Even if the hearing is held in September I bet we won't hear anything about it for months.

Don't be silly, no one wants the icsid. It's just a lever they're pulling as the final back up plan to close it out. Deal incoming, if they don't get a deal then they will go to ICSID but reality is, no one wants that

 

[Flight996]

Likely have to wait for ICSID which who knows when it is? 6 months away?

ICC has shown to be a nothing avenue. Even if the hearing is held in September I bet we won't hear anything about it for months.

Even the relatively simple MMCS vs Cominiere ICC decision is approaching the maximum allowable time period, which is six months (excluding exceptional circumstances).

Cheers
F

 

[timb89]

Felix is desperate to have all cases dropped before he begins re-election campaign - zero chance of waiting until ICSID hearing IMO (there hasn't been a ICSID case in 10 odd years and its a massive deal) - negotiations happening currently imo

Can you clairfy what you mean by no ICSID cases in last 10 years?

 

[Dazmac66]

The negotiation table would make for good entertainment. AVZ walks in and quietly places the IGF report in the centre of the table and says "what's your offer?" If the offer is not in the ballpark Nigel quietly slides a large document towards the centre of the table with "ICSID Brief of Evidence" emblazoned on the cover! Nigel says "10 billion or licence to exploit, which is it?

 

[Cumquat Cap]

i just backed up with research, only one concluded case against the DRC in the past 10 years which they lost, they've rarely been taken to ICSID and with the amount of illegal shit they do i'd say that evidences how rare/serious this action is

 

[Cumquat Cap]

From memory, Nigel said $2 would be the base minimum he'd accept - hope that's USD but who knows. Anyone else have any memories from Shareholder meetings of numbers? it's worth $4 in this context IMO but say that's gonna be tough to achieve

 

[Dazmac66]

I thought he said 10 billion a while back.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

$10 Billy would be fine with me - still plenty of upside for whoever buys us out

 

[MoneyBags1348]

From memory, Nigel said $2 would be the base minimum he'd accept - hope that's USD but who knows. Anyone else have any memories from Shareholder meetings of numbers? it's worth $4 in this context IMO but say that's gonna be tough to achieve

He said $3 - $3.50 minimum…. Too much bullshit, speculation and rumours supposedly out of the DRC on these threads for the last few weeks, not enough shareholders researching and posting facts

@Frank the big exception, keep up the great work Frank

 

[TDITD]

I thought he said 10 billion a while back.

$10 Billion was a number mentioned by BOD at the shit shows.

Never seen anyone on BOD mention that other number which is too low and insulting for me to even repeat, quite lucky I have never heard it too as I would likely have an involuntary @MoneyBags1348 reaction and cock punch them.

So I shall take what I heard from the horses mouth $10 Billion (USD - why not)

Don't lose sight of exactly what we have here, RD & CDL & never forget the tin.
A strategically and obviously geo-politically very important mammoth deposit that has the potential to control the price of spod for years to come.

$10 Billion for this is a fucking steal !! ....... in fact fuck it Zijin, I think I'll keep it

 

[MoneyBags1348]

$10 Billion was a number mentioned by BOD at the shit shows.

Never seen anyone on BOD mention that other number which is too low and insulting for me to even repeat, quite lucky I have never heard it too as I would likely have an involuntary @MoneyBags1348 reaction and cock punch them.

So I shall take what I heard from the horses mouth $10 Billion (USD - why not)

Don't lose sight of exactly what we have here, RD & CDL & never forget the tin.
A strategically and obviously geo-politically very important mammoth deposit that has the potential to control the price of spod for years to come.

$10 Billion for this is a fucking steal !! ....... in fact fuck it Zijin, I think I'll keep it

 

[CHB]

Don't be silly, no one wants the icsid. It's just a lever they're pulling as the final back up plan to close it out. Deal incoming, if they don't get a deal then they will go to ICSID but reality is, no one wants that

No one wants any of this shit. But it's reality.

Hoping you have a source that says there is an offer on the table being negotiated (preferably at $12 ).

 

[Azzler]

I'd really rather we get the ML and get back to trading.
Apparently, DRC take a fat 30% CGT of a take over.
Then we have to pay 25% tax of our dividend assuming you're up a several hundred K.

Leaving us with only just above half of the sale price.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

No one wants any of this shit. But it's reality.

Hoping you have a source that says there is an offer on the table being negotiated (preferably at $12 ).

No, no source. Just that's there's facts, and my interpretation of the facts, and I'm sure there's a vast gulf between them

 

[Samus]

I'd really rather we get the ML and get back to trading.
Apparently, DRC take a fat 30% CGT of a take over.
Then we have to pay 25% tax of our dividend assuming you're up a several hundred K.

Leaving us with only just above half of the sale price.

Management can't afford to take anything less than ATH after tax or they open themselves up to all sorts of troubles.
That's the baseline imo.

 

[Winenut]

I thought he said 10 billion a while back.

12 billion.....if Zijin is the buyer

Never forget the "fuck you" premium

 

[Winenut]

How did everyone go at the Melbourne catchup?

Good opportunity to chat with fellow investors?

Share a few ideas and get a bit of emotional support?

Hope it went well for those that attended......very good intitiative

 

[Samus]

12 billion.....if Zijin is the buyer

Never forget the "fuck you" premium

I thought it was Zijin 12b - damages. And a separate buyer $12.

 

[CHB]

How did everyone go at the Melbourne catchup?

Good opportunity to chat with fellow investors?

Share a few ideas and get a bit of emotional support?

Hope it went well for those that attended......very good intitiative

everyone was drinking tap water cause funds were frozen

 

[Flight996]

Don't be silly, no one wants the icsid. It's just a lever they're pulling as the final back up plan to close it out. Deal incoming, if they don't get a deal then they will go to ICSID but reality is, no one wants that

Mate, I am unsure why nobody wants the ICSID arbitration to proceed. Nothing has worked to date, AVZ is ignored by the DRC govt, the ICC seems a bit insipid, and the impasse remains. As we are acutely aware, the DRC govt, its agencies and the judiciary are corrupt to the core. And Chinese miners are complicit in this corruption. As a result, AVZ is cornered and faced with endless shitfuckery as it defends its ownership of Manono.

From my perspective, it's a good thing that AVZ is calling out the DRC govt and its agencies through this process. On the available evidence, particularly the IGF report, road-blocking by CAMI and arbitrary ministerial decision-making, AVZ seems to stand a good chance of a favorable outcome. While it may take a while to unfold and finalise, ICSID arbitration carries a big stick. For instance, it's awards (decisions) are binding and enforceable, and not subject to appeal in any international or domestic court. That means that the DRC and its agencies cannot appeal to a friendly domestic court if they lose, and Zijin cannot bribe its way to a favorable decision.

In addition, there is no binding precedent, which means that the DRC cannot rely on previous awards made in other cases in its defence, and also cannot rely on diplomatic immunity to avoid compliance with an award.

Having said all that, I agree with you that a negotiated settlement prior to arbitration is a strong possibility.

Cheers
F