AVZ Discussion 2022

[Mr Clean]

"We are on the cusp of a promising venture in the manufacturing of power batteries in Manono. There, we bring together the Congolese government, Chinese companies and American and European companies as end users.”

That’s ominous. Looks like the president wants to be rid of us?

 

[Birdman7]

That appears to be a quote from Felix ? Where is Australia/AVZ in his equation ?He's going to have to make a bold move very soon or his Lithium is not going to see the light of day for years . imo

After all this time I have the impression that uttering the words Australia/AVZ is as hard for the Congolese Govt to say as Sorry is/was for Fonzie!

Incredibly disappointing

 

[Samus]

"We are on the cusp of a promising venture in the manufacturing of power batteries in Manono. There, we bring together the Congolese government, Chinese companies and American and European companies as end users.”

Where is this quote taken from?

 

[Hodlandwin69]

That appears to be a quote from Felix ? Where is Australia/AVZ in his equation ?He's going to have to make a bold move very soon or his Lithium is not going to see the light of day for years . imo

Well seems like Australia is clearly out. Take over is our only hope

 

[wombat74]

Where is this quote taken from?

Africa’s minerals giants aim for bigger bucks in China-West resources race

Having more of the supply chain in your country creates jobs and tax revenue but capital, legal certainty and technical talent are needed, says analyst.

www.scmp.com

 

[Mickyb64]

Where is this quote taken from?

Article posted by Azzler and quotes an interview FT gave to China Media Group.

 

[Underwaterdark]

AVZ isn't in the business of manufacturing batteries.
In the context of the article, it relates to a section talking about a battery making plant.

We will just supply the lithium (hopefully).

 

[Azzler]

He's talking about making batteries, not mining lithium.
However making batteries in Manono doesn't seem right, more like Lubumbashi.

It does seem strange that the writer apparently got an interview with the president, but he only said that one line?
All seems a bit off actually.

 

[Samus]

He's talking about making batteries, not mining lithium.
However making batteries in Manono doesn't seem right, more like Lubumbashi.

It does seem strange that the writer apparently got an interview with the president, but he only said that one line?
All seems a bit off actually.

Articles from the China morning post have spouted a whole lot of long winded bullshit in the past as well. I get the feeling it's not a factual paper but a propaganda arm of the CCP where they push a specific narrative under the giuse of remaining somewhat neutral.

 

[Dazmac66]

There, we bring together the Congolese government, Chinese companies and American and European companies as end users"

This could be in line with a revamped "Battery Council" whereby AVZ mines the lithium.

 

[obe wan]

That appears to be a quote from Felix ? Where is Australia/AVZ in his equation ?He's going to have to make a bold move very soon or his Lithium is not going to see the light of day for years . imo

AVZ wouldn't be an 'end user' ; they'd be upstream / Miner

 

[wombat74]

AVZ wouldn't be an 'end user' ; they'd be upstream / Miner

Fair call . It was the use of the word 'AND' that tripped me . I didn't realise it was a Chinese publication .

 

[9cardomaha]

He's talking about making batteries, not mining lithium.
However making batteries in Manono doesn't seem right, more like Lubumbashi.

It does seem strange that the writer apparently got an interview with the president, but he only said that one line?
All seems a bit off actually.

The journo has also quoted the famous in-house legal council of ZJ previously i think. Might have been a speech that was given during the HK leg of the China visit, or something like that.

I wouldn't take anything he writes as unbiased - on top of the fact that SCMP is controlled by the CCP.

 

[geo_au]

That’s ominous. Looks like the president wants to be rid of us?

Not really, as we are considered a European country in the eyes of the president.

 

[geo_au]

Well seems like Australia is clearly out. Take over is our only hope

Understand what end user means before making comment. End user means finished product which will be manufactured in the DRC then exported to China Europe and America.

 

[Winenut]

Not really, as we are considered a European country in the eyes of the president.

And how exactly did you get inside the presidents head and see with his eyes?

 

[mikejoho]

IMHO

This is hypothetical (fanciful) only as I don’t know anything nor pretend to.

I have been thinking about what the end game is here, and what is the incentive for all participants to make it happen. As speculated, the latest ICSID potentially may do irrevocable damage to the relationship between AVZ and the DRC Govt, so a takeover is a more likely option. Contrary to popular troll theory, I don’t think the Govt will rip the current entitlement away from AVZ and give it to Zijin – the pursuing ramifications for DRC reputation and future investment from anywhere would be destroyed.

The current ICC ownership disputes of Dathcom also need to be resolved before the takeover can occur….or do they?

Currently:-

AVZ 60%

AVZ / Dathomir dispute ICC 15%

Cominere 5%

Cominere / Zijin ROFR dispute ICC 15%

Cominere / MMCS dispute ICC 5%

Personally, I don’t think any takeover can or will occur until clarification on the last two Cominere disputes (Zijin and MMCS). Both of these potentially can be resolved shortly. It is, imo, ‘likely’ to go the way that Cominere retains this 20%. Note the ROFR is still with AVZ but the holding remains with Cominere until triggered, bringing their total to 25%.

Regardless as to any thoughts on sinister high level Govt corruption claims, as a Govt agency, Cominere has won no friends. Their corruption has not been hidden and their incompetence is laid bare for all to see. The DRC Govt would view them as an embarrassment, and win, lose, or draw could not possibly be tolerated in this project. No incoming takeover would allow them to be a partner in this project.

So, the dissolution of Cominere would allow the DRC Govt to retain the 10% (ceded as per the mining code). The remaining 15% is then sold on a takeover and then becomes an injection of funds for the DRC Govt. So, therefore the DRC Govt and AVZ have a vested interest in the takeover. The higher the takeover price, the higher the proceeds the DRC Govt receives. This scenario also allows the DRC Govt to save face against the alleged high level corruption claims and protect its reputation as the process will be ethically transparent. The incoming funds to the DRC Govt could be used for immediate relief for expenditure as they see fit but hopefully a boost to poverty-stricken areas like Manono. If the latest Zijin ICC ‘damages’ claim is the starting point for bidding, then this will make a significant difference.

Obviously, the incoming company would be purchasing 90% of the project and the guarantee of the ML would be part of the takeover.

So what about the 15% dispute with Dathomir? Well, the ICC case is already logged. This 15% on takeover goes to AVZ, based on their legally justified position, with the threat of the ICC overturning this and the amounts relayed to Dathomir. Based on the information I have seen about the sale, I consider this threat a low risk.

Win/win/ save face/ immediate relief for the people of Manono/ CKK jail/ fuck Zijin

 

[Samus]

IMHO

This is hypothetical (fanciful) only as I don’t know anything nor pretend to.

I have been thinking about what the end game is here, and what is the incentive for all participants to make it happen. As speculated, the latest ICSID potentially may do irrevocable damage to the relationship between AVZ and the DRC Govt, so a takeover is a more likely option. Contrary to popular troll theory, I don’t think the Govt will rip the current entitlement away from AVZ and give it to Zijin – the pursuing ramifications for DRC reputation and future investment from anywhere would be destroyed.

The current ICC ownership disputes of Dathcom also need to be resolved before the takeover can occur….or do they?

Currently:-

AVZ 60%

AVZ / Dathomir dispute ICC 15%

Cominere 5%

Cominere / Zijin ROFR dispute ICC 15%

Cominere / MMCS dispute ICC 5%

Personally, I don’t think any takeover can or will occur until clarification on the last two Cominere disputes (Zijin and MMCS). Both of these potentially can be resolved shortly. It is, imo, ‘likely’ to go the way that Cominere retains this 20%. Note the ROFR is still with AVZ but the holding remains with Cominere until triggered, bringing their total to 25%.

Regardless as to any thoughts on sinister high level Govt corruption claims, as a Govt agency, Cominere has won no friends. Their corruption has not been hidden and their incompetence is laid bare for all to see. The DRC Govt would view them as an embarrassment, and win, lose, or draw could not possibly be tolerated in this project. No incoming takeover would allow them to be a partner in this project.

So, the dissolution of Cominere would allow the DRC Govt to retain the 10% (ceded as per the mining code). The remaining 15% is then sold on a takeover and then becomes an injection of funds for the DRC Govt. So, therefore the DRC Govt and AVZ have a vested interest in the takeover. The higher the takeover price, the higher the proceeds the DRC Govt receives. This scenario also allows the DRC Govt to save face against the alleged high level corruption claims and protect its reputation as the process will be ethically transparent. The incoming funds to the DRC Govt could be used for immediate relief for expenditure as they see fit but hopefully a boost to poverty-stricken areas like Manono. If the latest Zijin ICC ‘damages’ claim is the starting point for bidding, then this will make a significant difference.

Obviously, the incoming company would be purchasing 90% of the project and the guarantee of the ML would be part of the takeover.

So what about the 15% dispute with Dathomir? Well, the ICC case is already logged. This 15% on takeover goes to AVZ, based on their legally justified position, with the threat of the ICC overturning this and the amounts relayed to Dathomir. Based on the information I have seen about the sale, I consider this threat a low risk.

Win/win/ save face/ immediate relief for the people of Manono/ CKK jail/ fuck Zijin

And where did you emerged from with such a detailed hypothesis?

 

[Cumquat Cap]

very good analysis and think you are spot on, hoping $avz trotting the globe getting competing takeover offers (outside China) to drive up our bargaining position. I think we never trade again but are bought out for a healthy premium of last trade (avz has more leverage then people are alluding to via ICSID and water tight documentation).

 

[Onthefm]

IMHO

This is hypothetical (fanciful) only as I don’t know anything nor pretend to.

I have been thinking about what the end game is here, and what is the incentive for all participants to make it happen. As speculated, the latest ICSID potentially may do irrevocable damage to the relationship between AVZ and the DRC Govt, so a takeover is a more likely option. Contrary to popular troll theory, I don’t think the Govt will rip the current entitlement away from AVZ and give it to Zijin – the pursuing ramifications for DRC reputation and future investment from anywhere would be destroyed.

The current ICC ownership disputes of Dathcom also need to be resolved before the takeover can occur….or do they?

Currently:-

AVZ 60%

AVZ / Dathomir dispute ICC 15%

Cominere 5%

Cominere / Zijin ROFR dispute ICC 15%

Cominere / MMCS dispute ICC 5%

Personally, I don’t think any takeover can or will occur until clarification on the last two Cominere disputes (Zijin and MMCS). Both of these potentially can be resolved shortly. It is, imo, ‘likely’ to go the way that Cominere retains this 20%. Note the ROFR is still with AVZ but the holding remains with Cominere until triggered, bringing their total to 25%.

Regardless as to any thoughts on sinister high level Govt corruption claims, as a Govt agency, Cominere has won no friends. Their corruption has not been hidden and their incompetence is laid bare for all to see. The DRC Govt would view them as an embarrassment, and win, lose, or draw could not possibly be tolerated in this project. No incoming takeover would allow them to be a partner in this project.

So, the dissolution of Cominere would allow the DRC Govt to retain the 10% (ceded as per the mining code). The remaining 15% is then sold on a takeover and then becomes an injection of funds for the DRC Govt. So, therefore the DRC Govt and AVZ have a vested interest in the takeover. The higher the takeover price, the higher the proceeds the DRC Govt receives. This scenario also allows the DRC Govt to save face against the alleged high level corruption claims and protect its reputation as the process will be ethically transparent. The incoming funds to the DRC Govt could be used for immediate relief for expenditure as they see fit but hopefully a boost to poverty-stricken areas like Manono. If the latest Zijin ICC ‘damages’ claim is the starting point for bidding, then this will make a significant difference.

Obviously, the incoming company would be purchasing 90% of the project and the guarantee of the ML would be part of the takeover.

So what about the 15% dispute with Dathomir? Well, the ICC case is already logged. This 15% on takeover goes to AVZ, based on their legally justified position, with the threat of the ICC overturning this and the amounts relayed to Dathomir. Based on the information I have seen about the sale, I consider this threat a low risk.

Win/win/ save face/ immediate relief for the people of Manono/ CKK jail/ fuck Zijin

Mate great overview and hope you're right. Only problem is even the supposed open/shut mmcs case still is not resolved after ,christ, how many months. But sounds good to me.