Brilliant summation obe wan.Frustrated as anyone, I've a fair wack tied up in this thing, fair play to anyone who rode this thing through ML applications and to award(ish) ..that journey was considered a valley of death ; if the resource had of been in Australia AVZ would have been taken over after the first 20 holes....
DRC...well that's a different kettle of fish ; banging out the results and everyone ( suitors / potential partners) just sat on the fence ; my thoughts were always, that on award we’d have a quick scramble and a bidding war on sunrise...i reckon the likes of Zijin also knew this and so the stink bomb was primed and detonated to go off just after decree ( basically approval ) , which caused any entilty which had the ‘the time is now, need to act quick’ thought ; to pause and say fark it ; what just happened here..an instant shit storm ; from that point the Chinese with the help of their DRC corrupt cockroaches got to work by themselves and have tried to fuck AVZ up anyway they could....theres a few paragraphs I could write, but won't go through all that.....so fast forward..
My thoughts have been that we’ll come of of this thing alive ; it will be awarded to Dathcom...possibly some pressure negotiations around who gets what with of course most likely mining code not being totally followed e.g. We split it again, DRC state gets >10%, other financial terms which other mining approvals haven't been required to do; feed my dog on Saturday's etc etc.
There seemed to be a pretty positive vibe in the air over the last 2-3 weeks..progress being made…rumour has it that this ICSID request application was made about 8 weeks ago ; so obviously before the recent uptick in positive moods....but what does the ICSID bring to the table? I think it probably cools off the leverage which the other side of the table thought it had...NF has been pretty bald headed from what I gather and hasn't failed under the pressure as some hoped he would have by now ; ICSID would potential wipe all of those non mining code applicable requests off the table, as ICSID would point to those as being unlawful / non compliance which by itself, would quick commence the downward spiraling of DRC's case.
So is the positive vibe still entacked? Has the ICSID moved rubbed a bit of salt in? I assume that if every thing was hurtling down the track to be finalised then AVZ could have turned off the request......but they possibly just had the application lodge 8 weeks ago and as these things take time, the they may run the risk of cancellation of the request only to realise that another brick wall has been built overnight and now they need to go and start the process again, burning another 8 weeks.
Some may have heard the rumour flying around that DRC want AVZ to drop their ICC cases....personally there wouldn't be a hope in hell of me dropping those cases unless the ML was in hand...imagine dropping these cases only to realise that the opposite side of the bargain wasn't kept and we needed to start that process again..
So where does this all leave us? We’ll imo unless FT already knew about this ICSID thing and he's been ok about it, then it's likely that things will be frosty ; but he's in a tough position considering it's most reached world stage and drc is not exactly cash rich and rely heavily on funds Despite being resource rich..but unfortunately are being raped by the Chinese. There's just so much corruption involved, relationship imo would be hitting the cheese grater , FT is probably searching for hair to pull out of his head by now ; the ICSID is a request at this stage, but can turn to proceedings pretty quickly...that happens and Worldbank and co will start to scrutinise funding even further and the funding belts likely to tightening ....Manono..well that would basically get frozen and FTs ‘battery world’ goes up in smoke, as global lithium exploration projects pass manono by and supply offtakes get signed elsewhere .
So my thinking is that this will likely end with a TO with FTs blessing ; a TO pre ML would require a guarantee from FT to the suitor that they’d be granted the licence if they pay the cash....doesnt look great for the DRC tbh, AVZ gets decree for ML, then gets cockblocked by a party of brown baggers and Chinese and needs to sell the project after 6 years of hard graft....pretty shitty and can't imagine it would have too much foreign investment clambering to get into the DRC's mining sector......its become a mess for FT; ideally he’d swing the sword and be publicallg seen to being forcefully weeding out all the grubs, the RCCM proved legit and Zijin were out.......buuut he seems more focused on not upsetting any of these corrupt ministerial grubs before the elections.....but if @9cardomaha ‘s docs do come up trumps then there's still a chance that FT is pushing the grinding stone behind the scene
Impact......at this stage give me a figure which after corporate tax if it's the asset is being sold in the DRC, which returns at the very very least ATH figure and id be happy enough to move on ; no ones getting $12 forget that garbage ; I couldn't be fucked going through another couple of months of this thing.
As for investing in anything with the name ‘Cong’ in it ; not a hope. We’ll get our cash back out of this thing, but imo forget the dream of going mining...if we get the ML; we’ll be well north the aforementioned price...money talks and mud sticks...would one really want to deal with all the shit through construction and dealing with Chinese and corrupt drc goons trying to fuck you up every step of the way....ML granted and $2.50 to $3.00 could be a reality..all depends on how FT feels
I reckon the AVZ case will be forever known, in mining investment circles when referring to the DRC. The resultant fallout in damage caused to the DRC mining industry by CKK , MoP, Lukonde etc will be far greater than they think imo; FT sweeping the decks would have shone a beacon of power and strength and likely been more favourable to his election hopes , as opposed to what his current position is portraying to the on lookers.
I’ve no doubt MoP and Lukonde won’t be consoling FT if he falls on his own sword at election time ; they’ll never thank him for standing by them when they were clearly exposed ,as horrible corrupt bastards. Those two will just slither off elsewhere and continue with the same ; CKK will probably still remain in charge of Cominiere … although I hope all three end up having to give 2 cent knuckle shuffles in back alleys ,as their new earners , as no one would touch them in any other capacity
With what MoP and CKK and others have pocketed along the way l doubt they will ever need to be doing 2 cent knuckle shuffles in back alleys.
DRC will never get out of the corrupt cycle they live in.
, if you had attended some of the AVZ meet and greets over the years and noticed who 'worked the room best', you might think differently, as for his other passions everyone has their quirks. jstmythrts
as starting points go, but it will be more like 2-3 bucks at best in the next 12 mths in the real world that I live in, if its higher than that someone deserves a Fg medal.
