AVZ are not going to mine, this in my opinion is thier last ditch effort to secure a mining licence though negotiated means prior to TO.
The two outcomes for AVZ IMO are TO without mining licence or TO with mining licence.
Rumour has it there is currently an offer on the table as the project stands, without the mining licence circa $1.50.
If we can force the Governments hand into issuing us a ML, then that price in my opinion increases to around $3.50.
Even if we don't get the ML, the price has just gone up. The DRC can influence the buyer to pay the $2.50 so the arbitration case can be dropped.
Make no mistake about it, the board are doing everything they can to maximise shareholder value and they have my full support.
In a perfect world DRC would have issued the mining licence as we all thought they would have. But most of us underestimated the corruption and the squeeze the Chinese have over the DRC. There were a few posters who rightfully recognised this risk.
The non issuance on the mining licence was and is a result of the Chinese exerting pressure through nefarious means. The Chinese have long held the belief that if we don't get the mining licence then they can just take our project for little or nothing. They've had plenty of opportunities to pay fair price for the project but that's just not how they do business. Unfortunately for them this arrogance has not served them well.
The Chinese have underestimated Nigel and our BOD and they have also underestimated the DRC.
As much as shareholders feel animosity towards DRC Government officials I believe they want to do the right thing and break away from Chinese influence, but as we know it's not easy and the Chinese will not give up without a fight. They have deep pockets and will use any means necessary to maintain influence. They are an unrivaled force in the DRC and breaking away from their stranglehold will take time, but there have been encouraging signs.
This ICSID arbitration process allows the DRC Government an opportunity to rule against Chinese wishes with limited backlash as this forum carries the weight required to go against the Chinese. I'm sure It's the decision they would have liked to have made in the first instance, a decision that would have been hard to make with the Chinese standing over you holding a gun to your head.
All my opinion (apart from the rumours)
I also don't believe we are going to mine, for different reasons.
If you have to go to these lengths and international courts etc to get an piece of paper for approval to mine, how are you going to get the co-operation needed to actually construct and build a mine. It will be impossible to do without resorting to greasing palms as is the modus operandi for getting anything done in the DRC.
I also don't believe the DRC Government officials are at all altruistic and wanting to do the right thing. All available evidence is to the contrary:
- Dodgy election of Felix
- Gold watches galore
- Mupande still there
- "Show me the evidence and I'll go something", despite evidence being provided in spades
- Ongoing fuckshittery with the Chinese all over the place in the country
There is NO incentive for those in benefitting from the corruption gravy train to want it to stop, and they have the means to stay on it as long as they want. They also have the ability and evidence to rule against Chine with IGF reports etc anytime they want to. It isn't as though China is following through with any promises re: belt and road anyway.
I reckon this is a case of:
- Felix just paying lip service.
- DRC officials are refusing to meet with us, fobbing us off after meeting with us, or not actioning anything after meeting with us
- DRC time taking an age, whatever happens.
Regardless of ICC outcomes, we are still reliant on DRC courts for enforcement.
I don't know what actions has resulted in C and Z taking court action for damages, but I reckon we've had enough of the runaround and wmpty words and are covering bases.
At this point we've decided to use the ICSID for:
- ensuring we have a court that can enforce the decision
- letting DRC know to hurry up, and not expect to be able to continue to fob us off. Start dealing with this mess.
- ensuring we retain company value.
Once we've retained company value in whatever form that deal takes (cash, equity, ML, compensation etc), I reckon the BOD will be more interested in a method of cashing out rather than trying to get a mine running in this shitshow.
