AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

I would have thought more …”under the influence(r)”…

Yes that little play on words did occur to me at the time John

I truly am tragic...

 

[Winenut]

I’m offended, I missed them

You just have to be out of your mind on red wine and stay up until about 12:30am with nothing to do and no life and then get on TSE and you will never miss another one

 

[Winenut]

Me too

refer to the advice above

 

[Winenut]

As an insurance policy I am getting all my posting out of the way early tonight.....I promise

 

[TDITD]

Would love a nice TO price, but honestly what does it matter the potential TO price when we appear to be at risk of being screwed over completely and losing everything. A TO at just $1.50 would be a massive relief after all this

Over to you Nigel would you take a measly $1.5 TO offer with the BFS up your sleeve ?

Thanks Nigel

 

[BEISHA]

News headline received for AVZ

CSID Arbitration Proceedings

Lets see what it says



View attachment 38063 .

Well, the roller coaster shit fight with AVZ / DRC/ CHYNA has just added another layer of poo and more emotional anguish / confusion for LTH.....

This announcement reminds me of divorce proceedings regards to my failed first marriage.........Irreconcilable differences.

For those that have not gone down the path of divorce, usually you go to a marriage councillor to see if you can salvage the relationship and garner some common ground ......normally takes 12 months, then if that doesnt work, BYE BYE !

AVZ are done and dusted with round the table " harmonious parties talk " bull shit and other purported negotiations ( 13 months ongoing ), now going for the juggular , bypassing ZIJIN / COM / DATHOMIR and going after the collective DRC govt, which includes the gutless FT.

I didnt see that coming, but why should i be surprised ?

I didnt see AVZ going into voluntary suspension after being awarded the ML decree.......

I didnt see FT being a weak farken prick after the IGF report was put on his farken desk , outlining the corruption in his own department and confirming AVZ 60% rights in Dathcom........

I didnt see the ML decree scrubbed altogether for " lack of harmony "............

I didnt know ICSID even existed until i looked it up and felt deflated when i read this......

"Following the final hearing on the merits (for cases where such a hearing took place), an ICSID tribunal will on average take 425 days, or just under 14 months, to render its award."

So where to now ?

Fucked if i know and lets be honest, nobody farken knows despite the best efforts of the amazing sleuths here....

I was kinda hoping that with the " ZIJIN GONE " vibe the last few days, that maybe there was a development that a ML could be awarded sometime this year to AVZ........now not sure at all.

There is a massive reason why i want this complete fucked up mess to conclude ASAP this year apart from the obvious reasons of mental health , locked out longs getting access to their " super " and avoiding another more devious corrupt DRC govt getting into power and that is......

MACRO technicals are in bullish territory right now.......

Spot lithium carbonate 99.5% prices are on the up too......now 305, 000, up from the low of 166, 000.

But that wont last forever.........

Cause the DOW is close to completing a super cycle of 5 waves, which means a deep wave 2 down movement follows suit.

Global X not as advanced as the DOW but it is on its last wave up before completing a 5 wave super cycle too.......

I am predicting the DOW & GLOBAL X will complete their respective super cycles next year, lots of pundits predicting recession next year globally, the technicals all match up to that vibe.

Some folk here will say, well it wont effect AVZ if we are still locked in suspension waiting for ICC / ICSID arbitration to come to its conclusion next year and you would be right, but heaven help us if we do re list and open up for trade, cause no guarantee that the best result for AVZ will strike a positive sentiment against the back drop of global anarchy.

So best result for all AVZ longs, is by some miracle DRC govt come to their senses and award the ML to AVZ asap this year and ride whats left of MACRO bullish sentiment........or remain suspended throughout the ICC / ICSID deliberations ( JULY 2024 )and get a decent TO proposal before re list .

With this massive deterioration of relations between AVZ / DRC / CHYNA.........i am now struggling to see how we could go to mine , maybe just rip the band aid off, get a DIVORCE and get TO at a decent premium as other posters have alluded.

One thing is for certain.............a real ugly look for the DRC, a real ugly look for the imposter FT and a real ugly look for the bully / stealer CHYNA.

Just my opinion.........food for thought.

 

[RHyNO]

take over. Rape over. 1.50. Where is penny wong

 

[Carlos Danger]

Liontown knocked back $2.50. I would want at least $3

Liontown 2.2b SOI x Albermarle 2.35 AUD offer = 5.17b AUD

5.17b x 0.67 current AUDUSD exchange rate = 3.48b USD

A takeover of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom at the 1.81 AUD price that Zijin and Cominiere are claiming for damages values Manono at 5.66b USD

5.66b USD x 1.48 current USDAUD exchange rate = 8.4b AUD

AVZ 1.81 is a 62.5% higher valuation than Liontown 2.35

 

[TDITD]

Liontown 2.2b SOI x Albermarle 2.35 AUD offer = 5.17b AUD

5.17b x 0.67 current AUDUSD exchange rate = 3.48b USD

A takeover of AVZ at the 1.81 AUD price that Zijin and Cominiere are claiming for damages is 5.66b USD

5.66b USD x 1.48 current USDAUD exchange rate = 8.4b AUD

AVZ 1.81 is a 62.5% higher valuation than Liontown 2.35

Carlos is correct here in talking market cap over SP.
Agreed $12

 

[Dave Evans]

Liontown 2.2b SOI x Albermarle 2.35 AUD offer = 5.17b AUD

5.17b x 0.67 current AUDUSD exchange rate = 3.48b USD

A takeover of AVZ at the 1.81 AUD price that Zijin and Cominiere are claiming for damages is 5.66b USD

5.66b USD x 1.48 current USDAUD exchange rate = 8.4b AUD

AVZ 1.81 is a 62.5% higher valuation than Liontown 2.35

I doubt any company would offer AVZ a TO without a guarantee the govt would issue a ML to go with it, which should value AVZ around $15 billion or about $5 a share. Future value would be higher than that ($12) but it’s all irrelevant until AVZ wins all arbitration cases. @Winenut any photos I have in my private collection stay in my private collection

 

[LX600]

Liontown 2.2b SOI x Albermarle 2.35 AUD offer = 5.17b AUD

5.17b x 0.67 current AUDUSD exchange rate = 3.48b USD

A takeover of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom at the 1.81 AUD price that Zijin and Cominiere are claiming for damages values Manono at 5.66b USD

5.66b USD x 1.48 current USDAUD exchange rate = 8.4b AUD

AVZ 1.81 is a 62.5% higher valuation than Liontown 2.35

It is roughly $12 Hong Kong dollars

 

[j.l]

I'd be shocked if it wasn't the gringos that got the licence decree cancelled. No chance they will fund the battery value chain without controlling the primary asset. MOU was signed in December and a month later we lose our rights with the MoM citing bullshit and having a view to 'save the Manono project'.

Takeover incoming from the gringos imo

But none of the money can go to China. That's why Jin Cheng were removed from Dathcom. And Cominiere's share goes directly to the DRC government. Just a wild guess off the top of my head the takeover price for the entirety of the Manono project will be somewhere around 5.66b USD (1.81 AUD per AVZ share).

View attachment 38129
View attachment 38130

I like the theory, but doesn't it have a big flaw: If the gringos are capable of getting the decree cancelled, why would a takeover be necessary? Can't they just arrange for the ML to be granted elsewhere?

 

[Frank]

 

[RHyNO]

If Jens turns out to be right at least once dear god make it now. Ffs

 

[Carlos Danger]

I like the theory, but doesn't it have a big flaw: If the gringos are capable of getting the decree cancelled, why would a takeover be necessary? Can't they just arrange for the ML to be granted elsewhere?

Dathcom still legally own the tenement. It would be much easier to buy us out than go through all the legal dramas of having it just awarded to someone else. The gringos are ruthless but they wouldn't be with an Australian company imo

 

[DoubleA]

I like the theory, but doesn't it have a big flaw: If the gringos are capable of getting the decree cancelled, why would a takeover be necessary? Can't they just arrange for the ML to be granted elsewhere?

Then they would open themselves up to arbitration proceedings which could amount to billions and billions as the project starts generating money and it becomes obvious what it is really worth. USA are supposed to be an Australian ally also. May be better to pay $2 now rather than have a $10 billion arbitration claim.

 

[JNRB]

Just to point out to everyone worrying that this means nothing is going to happen for another year or whatever;

There is nothing in this current course of action that precludes the DRC from still issuing the mining license.

We might get the mining license and still go through the process to 'seek various remedies'. Our interests have already been damaged. We've lost a lot of confidence in the system. Even once license is awarded, Dathcom may still need other remedies to compensate for how f'd up the DRC departments have been. Not necessarily financial compensation, but could be other commitments and agreements to support our operations going forward and allow us to operate without constant threat of further shenanigans.

So process may well still play out over the next 1-2 years, but IMO I don't think we'll be waiting that long for a resolution on the mining license. I think this is the kick up the backside that was needed to get things unstuck.

 

[timb89]

If Jens turns out to be right at least once dear god make it now. Ffs

What is your take on what he is saying? I can't make sense of what the implication is.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I doubt any company would offer AVZ a TO without a guarantee the govt would issue a ML to go with it, which should value AVZ around $15 billion or about $5 a share. Future value would be higher than that ($12) but it’s all irrelevant until AVZ wins all arbitration cases.

Yes agreed. But the guarantee will be to the buyer not AVZ so we will be valued as is. The gringos will not allow China to have ownership or all of the supply of the only scalable high quality lithium deposit in the region and agree to make batteries in the DRC and Zambia imo

Obviously I could be wrong and this is all a guess but I just can't shake the feeling that Zijin being removed from Dathcom while they and Cominiere claim damages for such a specific amount from AVZ is not a coincidence. There was a quote by that Boatman dweeb in the AFR's hit piece on Nigel in February that has a nugget of truth in it.

“They thought it was a goer; they got the mining decree and it was all going well,” he said. “Clearly, more powerful forces – and I assume those were Chinese, of what faction I don’t know – had gone presumably to the president, who says: ‘No AVZ doesn’t get the licence.’ I suspect what the DRC government is doing is playing everyone off against each other and see who offers the best deal.”

No one is offering a better deal than the gringos imo

 

[Dave Evans]

Yes agreed. But the guarantee will be to the buyer not AVZ so we will be valued as is. The gringos will not allow China to have ownership or all of the supply of the only scalable high quality lithium deposit in the region and agree to make batteries in the DRC and Zambia imo

Obviously I could be wrong and this is all a guess but I just can't shake the feeling that Zijin being removed from Dathcom while they and Cominiere claim damages for such a specific amount from AVZ being a coincidence. There was a quote by that Boatman dweeb in the AFR's hit piece on Nigel in February that has a nugget of truth in it.

“They thought it was a goer; they got the mining decree and it was all going well,” he said. “Clearly, more powerful forces – and I assume those were Chinese, of what faction I don’t know – had gone presumably to the president, who says: ‘No AVZ doesn’t get the licence.’ I suspect what the DRC government is doing is playing everyone off against each other and see who offers the best deal.”

No one is offering a better deal than the gringos imo

Carlos I think we would be valued as having the ML under those circumstances, and the true value of whoever owns 75% to 90% of Dathcom (including the planned BFS, increased production RD plus CDL and PLS or hydroxide plant) could well be above $30billion. If Zijin and Cominiere want to claim for lost future earnings, then what we should claim (or be worth) relative to future earnings should be close to this amount