TDITD
Top 20
Over to you Nigel would you take a measly $1.5 TO offer with the BFS up your sleeve ?
Thanks Nigel
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Thanks Nigel
Well, the roller coaster shit fight with AVZ / DRC/ CHYNA has just added another layer of poo and more emotional anguish / confusion for LTH.....
This announcement reminds me of divorce proceedings regards to my failed first marriage.........Irreconcilable differences.
For those that have not gone down the path of divorce, usually you go to a marriage councillor to see if you can salvage the relationship and garner some common ground ......normally takes 12 months, then if that doesnt work, BYE BYE !
AVZ are done and dusted with round the table " harmonious parties talk " bull shit and other purported negotiations ( 13 months ongoing ), now going for the juggular , bypassing ZIJIN / COM / DATHOMIR and going after the collective DRC govt, which includes the gutless FT.
I didnt see that coming, but why should i be surprised ?
I didnt see AVZ going into voluntary suspension after being awarded the ML decree.......
I didnt see FT being a weak farken prick after the IGF report was put on his farken desk , outlining the corruption in his own department and confirming AVZ 60% rights in Dathcom........
I didnt see the ML decree scrubbed altogether for " lack of harmony "............
I didnt know ICSID even existed until i looked it up and felt deflated when i read this......
"Following the final hearing on the merits (for cases where such a hearing took place), an ICSID tribunal will on average take 425 days, or just under 14 months, to render its award."
So where to now ?
Fucked if i know and lets be honest, nobody farken knows despite the best efforts of the amazing sleuths here....
I was kinda hoping that with the " ZIJIN GONE " vibe the last few days, that maybe there was a development that a ML could be awarded sometime this year to AVZ........now not sure at all.
There is a massive reason why i want this complete fucked up mess to conclude ASAP this year apart from the obvious reasons of mental health , locked out longs getting access to their " super " and avoiding another more devious corrupt DRC govt getting into power and that is......
MACRO technicals are in bullish territory right now.......
Spot lithium carbonate 99.5% prices are on the up too......now 305, 000, up from the low of 166, 000.
But that wont last forever.........
Cause the DOW is close to completing a super cycle of 5 waves, which means a deep wave 2 down movement follows suit.
Global X not as advanced as the DOW but it is on its last wave up before completing a 5 wave super cycle too.......
I am predicting the DOW & GLOBAL X will complete their respective super cycles next year, lots of pundits predicting recession next year globally, the technicals all match up to that vibe.
Some folk here will say, well it wont effect AVZ if we are still locked in suspension waiting for ICC / ICSID arbitration to come to its conclusion next year and you would be right, but heaven help us if we do re list and open up for trade, cause no guarantee that the best result for AVZ will strike a positive sentiment against the back drop of global anarchy.
So best result for all AVZ longs, is by some miracle DRC govt come to their senses and award the ML to AVZ asap this year and ride whats left of MACRO bullish sentiment........or remain suspended throughout the ICC / ICSID deliberations ( JULY 2024 )and get a decent TO proposal before re list .
With this massive deterioration of relations between AVZ / DRC / CHYNA.........i am now struggling to see how we could go to mine , maybe just rip the band aid off, get a DIVORCE and get TO at a decent premium as other posters have alluded.
One thing is for certain.............a real ugly look for the DRC, a real ugly look for the imposter FT and a real ugly look for the bully / stealer CHYNA.
Just my opinion.........food for thought.
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Carlos Danger
Top 20
Liontown 2.2b SOI x Albermarle 2.35 AUD offer = 5.17b AUD
5.17b x 0.67 current AUDUSD exchange rate = 3.48b USD
A takeover of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom at the 1.81 AUD price that Zijin and Cominiere are claiming for damages values Manono at 5.66b USD
5.66b USD x 1.48 current USDAUD exchange rate = 8.4b AUD
AVZ 1.81 is a 62.5% higher valuation than Liontown 2.35
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TDITD
Top 20
Carlos is correct here in talking market cap over SP.
Agreed $12
Dave Evans
Regular
I doubt any company would offer AVZ a TO without a guarantee the govt would issue a ML to go with it, which should value AVZ around $15 billion or about $5 a share. Future value would be higher than that ($12) but it’s all irrelevant until AVZ wins all arbitration cases. @Winenut any photos I have in my private collection stay in my private collection
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It is roughly $12 Hong Kong dollars
I like the theory, but doesn't it have a big flaw: If the gringos are capable of getting the decree cancelled, why would a takeover be necessary? Can't they just arrange for the ML to be granted elsewhere?
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Then they would open themselves up to arbitration proceedings which could amount to billions and billions as the project starts generating money and it becomes obvious what it is really worth. USA are supposed to be an Australian ally also. May be better to pay $2 now rather than have a $10 billion arbitration claim.
Just to point out to everyone worrying that this means nothing is going to happen for another year or whatever;
There is nothing in this current course of action that precludes the DRC from still issuing the mining license.
We might get the mining license and still go through the process to 'seek various remedies'. Our interests have already been damaged. We've lost a lot of confidence in the system. Even once license is awarded, Dathcom may still need other remedies to compensate for how f'd up the DRC departments have been. Not necessarily financial compensation, but could be other commitments and agreements to support our operations going forward and allow us to operate without constant threat of further shenanigans.
So process may well still play out over the next 1-2 years, but IMO I don't think we'll be waiting that long for a resolution on the mining license. I think this is the kick up the backside that was needed to get things unstuck.
There is nothing in this current course of action that precludes the DRC from still issuing the mining license.
We might get the mining license and still go through the process to 'seek various remedies'. Our interests have already been damaged. We've lost a lot of confidence in the system. Even once license is awarded, Dathcom may still need other remedies to compensate for how f'd up the DRC departments have been. Not necessarily financial compensation, but could be other commitments and agreements to support our operations going forward and allow us to operate without constant threat of further shenanigans.
So process may well still play out over the next 1-2 years, but IMO I don't think we'll be waiting that long for a resolution on the mining license. I think this is the kick up the backside that was needed to get things unstuck.
What is your take on what he is saying? I can't make sense of what the implication is.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Yes agreed. But the guarantee will be to the buyer not AVZ so we will be valued as is. The gringos will not allow China to have ownership or all of the supply of the only scalable high quality lithium deposit in the region and agree to make batteries in the DRC and Zambia imo
Obviously I could be wrong and this is all a guess but I just can't shake the feeling that Zijin being removed from Dathcom while they and Cominiere claim damages for such a specific amount from AVZ is not a coincidence. There was a quote by that Boatman dweeb in the AFR's hit piece on Nigel in February that has a nugget of truth in it.
“They thought it was a goer; they got the mining decree and it was all going well,” he said. “Clearly, more powerful forces – and I assume those were Chinese, of what faction I don’t know – had gone presumably to the president, who says: ‘No AVZ doesn’t get the licence.’ I suspect what the DRC government is doing is playing everyone off against each other and see who offers the best deal.”
No one is offering a better deal than the gringos imo
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Dave Evans
Regular
Carlos I think we would be valued as having the ML under those circumstances, and the true value of whoever owns 75% to 90% of Dathcom (including the planned BFS, increased production RD plus CDL and PLS or hydroxide plant) could well be above $30billion. If Zijin and Cominiere want to claim for lost future earnings, then what we should claim (or be worth) relative to future earnings should be close to this amount
Carlos Danger
Top 20
I think it's pretty clear now that AVZ won't be getting the licence. I really hope I'm wrong but nothing the DRC government has done in the last 12 months gives me any hope that we will be digging up spod anytime soon. An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay imo
Frank
Top 20
*Fyi, Speaking of the EU / Strategic Minerals and Pissing into the Wind, Did you see where,
Business climate: Tshisekedi for the acceleration of the effectiveness of the emergency plan in the DRC
The acceleration of the implementation of the Emergency Plan for the business climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo was requested by President Tshisekedi, to carry out the necessary reforms by the end of the year, learned on Friday the 'ACP, from the Congolese government spokesman.
"This plan, the implementation of which should cover all public services with a direct or indirect impact on the business climate and should combine the political, technical and human dimensions so that the necessary reforms are carried out by the end of this year", said government spokesman Patrick Muyaya, reading the minutes of the 101st meeting of the council of ministers, on national television.
According to Minister Muyaya, President Tshisekedi insisted on the need to put in place a system for taking charge of and monitoring the various recommendations resulting from exchanges between stakeholders during public and private dialogue.
Before making it known that Félix Tshisekedi welcomed the presentation of the results of the first survey of the National Barometer on the Business Climate (BNCA), which took place under his leadership on June 6, 2023, calling on the public power to appropriate it.
“The report is today proving to be a valuable tool, better still a mirror that allows the public authorities to face up to the realities of the economic environment as experienced daily by economic operators, in contact with the public administration and its respective facilitators,” the government spokesman said.
He added that the President of the Republic has encouraged the government to work to improve the country's overall score, despite the fact that economic operators have expressed a positive assessment of their performance in the current economic situation.
DRC-EU: discussions for the conclusion of a strategic partnership
In addition, Minister Muyaya said that discussions are underway between the DRC and the European Union for the conclusion of a partnership on the value chain of strategic minerals.
“Following the visit of the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, from March 3 to 5, the Minister of Mines and European Commissioner in charge of the Internal Market began discussions for the conclusion of a partnership on the channel responsible value chain for strategic minerals,” the government spokesperson said.
He said that this meeting was sanctioned by the commitment of the two parties to launch negotiations and to set up a working group in order to continue the said discussions with the objective of concluding a strategic partnership between the European Union and the DRC.
However, continued Patrick Muyaya, at the end of these discussions, it turned out that the scope of the partnership sought required a cross-cutting approach requiring the involvement of all the sectoral ministries concerned, including the Governance Unit which is housed in the Council.
The Prime Minister was tasked with setting up a multi-sectoral and inclusive Congolese team that will make up the negotiating committee empowered to discuss with European Union officials to lead to the signing before September 2023, of a memorandum of understanding between the DRC and the EU.
The Minister of Communication and Media stressed that the September deadline, which is that of the holding in Kinshasa of the DRC-Africa Forum devoted to battery methods, is an opportunity for the DRC to highlight such an agreement.
He further underlined that President Tshisekedi insisted that the two parties agree on a roadmap around industrial projects for the valorization of critical minerals capable of accelerating the ecological transition in the DRC and in the EU.
mediacongo
Food for thought
Cheers
Frank
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Imo your dead right. there is no way the gringos ( love that saying) will ask there big lit companies to bye into this shit fight. So back to a china at best TO. As far as I'm concerned they ( the drc elite) deserve exactly what they get from china. Fuck them let them lay in the putrid bed they made for themselves. Until the Congolese people stand up they will be screwed by the elite using china money. Until the people wake up to this there is no helping them IMO. It's an absolute fucking disgrace. But obviously tolerated by the west as usual late to the shitfight.Unfortunately, the Chinese have done everything possible for the past two years to steal this project, including bribery, forgery and coersion. They also have the processing capacity, the relationship with the DRC govt and the political will to make it happen for them.
The west on the other hand has been mostly silent, except for Antony Blinken, the US Sec of State who in August 2021, said that the US will invest in the DRC when corruption stops.
On balance it seems that the west has no interest in getting into this den of snakes.
Cheers
F
Last 2 years that would be mate.
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