AVZ Discussion 2022

cruiser51

Top 20
I am in Bali atm and don't have the time to read the many posts from today, but from what I have read my thoughts are ...
1. USA is pushing on with facilitation of the DRC/Rwanda peace agreement.
2. Kobold will not deal with the corrupt Cominiere.
3. Kobold will deal with DRC government and AVZ directly.
4. AVZ/DRC should have deferred the ICSID proceedings for 1 month rather than 1 week.
5. Despite the DRC not playing the game wrt ICSID as per AVZ's announcement today, following the peace agreement on 27-Jun, the process will see results that favour AVZ ... albeit over several steps, and the DRC goverment will have to involve AVZ even though it is clear that they despise AVZ.
6. Several people have today been posting ridiculous inflamatory posts on TSE that are really uncalled for and these posts have been despite AVZ specifically requesting posters to not do this.
I wish I could share your optimism....

1. AVZ/DRC ICSID deferment was for 1 month rather than 1 week.

2. DRC appointed the ceo of Cominière as one of their advisors for the negotiations of minerals for security deal.

Sorry Jongo, maybe being in Bali could well mean you are slightly disconnected, mate.

However my personal opinion is that the extension of the DRC proceedings was not to please anything else than the USA, in regards of the negotiations and am very happy the DRC choose the path they took, so AVZ can continue with the ICSID procedure and say 'I told you what the DRC is all about'.

Side effect is, if the ICSID arbitration is allowed to run its case, Kobold Metals will know a little more about the true Manono value.
Also the AVZ - Kobold deal is non binding, there could well be Chinese interested parties.

The future is interesting, will the DRC/Kobold try to bleed AVZ to death?
Who knows.....
 
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cruiser51

Top 20
I wish I could share your optimism....

1. AVZ/DRC ICSID deferment was for 1 month rather than 1 week.

2. DRC appointed the ceo of Cominière as one of their advisors for the negotiations of minerals for security deal.

Sorry Jongo, maybe being in Bali could well mean you are slightly disconnected, mate.

However my personal opinion is that the extension of the DRC proceedings was not to please anything else than the USA, in regards of the negotiations and am very happy the DRC choose the path they took, so AVZ can continue with the ICSID procedure and say 'I told you what the DRC is all about'.

Side effect is, if the ICSID arbitration is allowed to run its case, Kobold Metals will know a little more about the true Manono value.
Also the AVZ - Kobold deal is non binding, there could well be Chinese interested parties.

The future is interesting, will the DRC/Kobold try to bleed AVZ to death?
Who knows.....
Btw I wish I was in Bali, it is bloody cold in WA and am not and don't wish to be used to this anymore.
I am dreaming about an island in the pacific with a Mac Donalds and a gin distillery.
 
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SilentOne

Regular
See new posts: https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1937214058949648885

Conversation​


KIKI KIENGE
@KiengeKki
Translated by GrokShow original
#Mines_Lithium_RDC June 23, 2025, is the deadline for the suspension of ICSID arbitration. In brief, the international arbitration dispute and $AVZ
@KoBold_Metals
agreement on the Manono lithium project between AVZ, #COMINIERE, and ZIJIN. 1. Legal victories in March 2025. On March 10, 2025, the International Chamber of Commerce Arbitration Court (ICC) ruled in favor of
@AvzMinerals

. It upheld previous injunctions, ordering the Congolese public company COMINIERE to pay €39.1 million for failing to comply with these injunctions, particularly for splitting and transferring the permit to Manono Lithium SAS (a #Zijin–COMINIERE joint venture). AVZ is now exploring ways to recover this amount.

2. Suspension of arbitration for a negotiated outcome On May 26, 2025, as part of a framework agreement signed with KoBold Metals (backed by Bill Gates & Jeff Bezos), AVZ decided to temporarily suspend its ICSID proceedings against the DRC, hoping for an amicable settlement. This suspension is effective until June 23, 2025.

3. Geopolitical dimension and U.S. stakes The Manono case has gained significant strategic importance: Washington seeks to limit Chinese influence in the critical minerals sector and supports the AVZ–KoBold agreement to secure the southern part (Hard Rock) of the deposit through a takeover by an American entity. AVZ also secured a partial decision with ICSID against the Congolese state to recover the permit and is considering suspending these actions if a robust agreement progresses.

4. Upcoming deadlines June 23, 2025: deadline for the suspension of ICSID arbitration – closely watch to see if an amicable resolution is reached. The framework agreement with KoBold, if finalized, would include: financial compensation for AVZ, acquisition of AVZ’s shares by KoBold, and obtaining a permit for the southern zone of the deposit. In summary AVZ has prevailed legally (€39.1 million in penalties).
The case is moving toward an amicable settlement through the AVZ–KoBold partnership, supported by the United States.

The outcome will clearly depend on the framework agreement’s resolution by the end of June 2025 and Kinshasa’s acceptance of a coordinated deal. AVZ – KoBold Metals Agreement (May 2025) Elements Details Actors AVZ Minerals (Australia) and KoBold Metals (USA, backed by Gates, Bezos, B. Gates Foundation, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, etc.) Objective Partial or full acquisition of AVZ’s interests in the Manono lithium project, particularly the southern part known as “Hard Rock” Purpose Resolve AVZ’s dispute with the DRC, secure a strong technological and financial partner, advance the deposit’s exploitation Terms Payment to AVZ, transfer of its rights to KoBold, negotiation with Kinshasa for the issuance of a new independent mining permit for the southern part Key Condition Suspension of ICSID arbitration until June 23, 2025, to allow for a political and administrative resolution with the Congolese government Stakes: AVZ steps back but remains involved as an intermediary. KoBold offers the geopolitical and financial assurances Kinshasa seeks as an alternative to the Chinese option (Zijin). U.S. Strategy in Critical Minerals Main

Objectives: Reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, particularly for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. Secure strategic reserves through partnerships with resource-rich countries (such as the DRC, Chile, Australia, etc.). Support American technological champions like KoBold Metals, which combine AI, mining exploration, and long-term capital. Instruments Used: KoBold Metals acts as an “offensive player” backed by tech giants and U.S. investment funds. The U.S. government provides discreet diplomatic support to KoBold in negotiations with Congolese authorities. Support through green financing mechanisms and energy transition initiatives (USAID, DFC, etc.).

In the case of Manono: The northern part of the deposit is controlled by Zijin Mining (China) through Manono Lithium SAS. The southern part, more promising in volume and quality, could be granted to KoBold if the agreement succeeds. The United States aims to break the Chinese monopoly on this iconic project. Manono has thus become a major geopolitical symbol: AVZ yields to greater powers, and the two superpowers (USA vs. China) compete through proxy companies on the same African mining site. Kiki #Kienge
@MinMinesRDC

@kizpaka

@Presidence_RDC

@realDonaldTrump

@US_SrAdvisorAF

@USAmbDRC
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2:19 AM · Jun 24, 2025
 
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JNRB

Regular
IMO

The minerals for security deal will go ahead because if there's 1 thing a corrupt regime fears more than an empty paper bag its a violent uprising.

The M4S deal will not go ahead without a solution in sight for Manono:
1. Because USA knows they need the lithium
2. Because the USA can only get involved in DRC if its made clear that things are going to be above board. - By definition - this agreement cannot decide to just conveniently overlook a project theyre being iced out of due to corruption.

DRC will go down kicking and screaming but their options are:
1. Piss off the Americans for the sake of a few extra paper bags from China, get no value from Roche Dure or any downstream processing, and decided that the armed rebellion in the east isn't that big of a threat,
2. Kick-off a new development boom with USA that could dwarf China's paperbags, secure their positions against rebels, and (God forbid...) develop the Manono project into a project that can lift '000s of people out of poverty


There is a win-win deal for everyone (even 🤢 zijin 🤮) as long as people aren't to arrogant/dumb to take it
 
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Goat

Regular
Been thinking again.

Now that ICSID has been resumed, it means that the financial claim stated by AVZ has to now be the benchmark.
If AVZ go the full course with a >US$10B claim and are successful, then Kobold will have to reimburse AVZ that amount in order to take over the project. OR, can AVZ go double bubble and hamstring DRC with a financial claim that entails ICSID enforcing the amount payable, acquire the funds then flog off the rights for another amount.
I'm not sure..
 
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Roger2018

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This is the song that never ends!
 
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