AVZ Discussion 2022

[wombat74]

AVZ wouldn't be an 'end user' ; they'd be upstream / Miner

Fair call . It was the use of the word 'AND' that tripped me . I didn't realise it was a Chinese publication .

 

[9cardomaha]

He's talking about making batteries, not mining lithium.
However making batteries in Manono doesn't seem right, more like Lubumbashi.

It does seem strange that the writer apparently got an interview with the president, but he only said that one line?
All seems a bit off actually.

The journo has also quoted the famous in-house legal council of ZJ previously i think. Might have been a speech that was given during the HK leg of the China visit, or something like that.

I wouldn't take anything he writes as unbiased - on top of the fact that SCMP is controlled by the CCP.

 

[geo_au]

That’s ominous. Looks like the president wants to be rid of us?

Not really, as we are considered a European country in the eyes of the president.

 

[geo_au]

Well seems like Australia is clearly out. Take over is our only hope

Understand what end user means before making comment. End user means finished product which will be manufactured in the DRC then exported to China Europe and America.

 

[Winenut]

Not really, as we are considered a European country in the eyes of the president.

And how exactly did you get inside the presidents head and see with his eyes?

 

[mikejoho]

IMHO

This is hypothetical (fanciful) only as I don’t know anything nor pretend to.

I have been thinking about what the end game is here, and what is the incentive for all participants to make it happen. As speculated, the latest ICSID potentially may do irrevocable damage to the relationship between AVZ and the DRC Govt, so a takeover is a more likely option. Contrary to popular troll theory, I don’t think the Govt will rip the current entitlement away from AVZ and give it to Zijin – the pursuing ramifications for DRC reputation and future investment from anywhere would be destroyed.

The current ICC ownership disputes of Dathcom also need to be resolved before the takeover can occur….or do they?

Currently:-

AVZ 60%

AVZ / Dathomir dispute ICC 15%

Cominere 5%

Cominere / Zijin ROFR dispute ICC 15%

Cominere / MMCS dispute ICC 5%

Personally, I don’t think any takeover can or will occur until clarification on the last two Cominere disputes (Zijin and MMCS). Both of these potentially can be resolved shortly. It is, imo, ‘likely’ to go the way that Cominere retains this 20%. Note the ROFR is still with AVZ but the holding remains with Cominere until triggered, bringing their total to 25%.

Regardless as to any thoughts on sinister high level Govt corruption claims, as a Govt agency, Cominere has won no friends. Their corruption has not been hidden and their incompetence is laid bare for all to see. The DRC Govt would view them as an embarrassment, and win, lose, or draw could not possibly be tolerated in this project. No incoming takeover would allow them to be a partner in this project.

So, the dissolution of Cominere would allow the DRC Govt to retain the 10% (ceded as per the mining code). The remaining 15% is then sold on a takeover and then becomes an injection of funds for the DRC Govt. So, therefore the DRC Govt and AVZ have a vested interest in the takeover. The higher the takeover price, the higher the proceeds the DRC Govt receives. This scenario also allows the DRC Govt to save face against the alleged high level corruption claims and protect its reputation as the process will be ethically transparent. The incoming funds to the DRC Govt could be used for immediate relief for expenditure as they see fit but hopefully a boost to poverty-stricken areas like Manono. If the latest Zijin ICC ‘damages’ claim is the starting point for bidding, then this will make a significant difference.

Obviously, the incoming company would be purchasing 90% of the project and the guarantee of the ML would be part of the takeover.

So what about the 15% dispute with Dathomir? Well, the ICC case is already logged. This 15% on takeover goes to AVZ, based on their legally justified position, with the threat of the ICC overturning this and the amounts relayed to Dathomir. Based on the information I have seen about the sale, I consider this threat a low risk.

Win/win/ save face/ immediate relief for the people of Manono/ CKK jail/ fuck Zijin

 

[Samus]

IMHO

This is hypothetical (fanciful) only as I don’t know anything nor pretend to.

I have been thinking about what the end game is here, and what is the incentive for all participants to make it happen. As speculated, the latest ICSID potentially may do irrevocable damage to the relationship between AVZ and the DRC Govt, so a takeover is a more likely option. Contrary to popular troll theory, I don’t think the Govt will rip the current entitlement away from AVZ and give it to Zijin – the pursuing ramifications for DRC reputation and future investment from anywhere would be destroyed.

The current ICC ownership disputes of Dathcom also need to be resolved before the takeover can occur….or do they?

Currently:-

AVZ 60%

AVZ / Dathomir dispute ICC 15%

Cominere 5%

Cominere / Zijin ROFR dispute ICC 15%

Cominere / MMCS dispute ICC 5%

Personally, I don’t think any takeover can or will occur until clarification on the last two Cominere disputes (Zijin and MMCS). Both of these potentially can be resolved shortly. It is, imo, ‘likely’ to go the way that Cominere retains this 20%. Note the ROFR is still with AVZ but the holding remains with Cominere until triggered, bringing their total to 25%.

Regardless as to any thoughts on sinister high level Govt corruption claims, as a Govt agency, Cominere has won no friends. Their corruption has not been hidden and their incompetence is laid bare for all to see. The DRC Govt would view them as an embarrassment, and win, lose, or draw could not possibly be tolerated in this project. No incoming takeover would allow them to be a partner in this project.

So, the dissolution of Cominere would allow the DRC Govt to retain the 10% (ceded as per the mining code). The remaining 15% is then sold on a takeover and then becomes an injection of funds for the DRC Govt. So, therefore the DRC Govt and AVZ have a vested interest in the takeover. The higher the takeover price, the higher the proceeds the DRC Govt receives. This scenario also allows the DRC Govt to save face against the alleged high level corruption claims and protect its reputation as the process will be ethically transparent. The incoming funds to the DRC Govt could be used for immediate relief for expenditure as they see fit but hopefully a boost to poverty-stricken areas like Manono. If the latest Zijin ICC ‘damages’ claim is the starting point for bidding, then this will make a significant difference.

Obviously, the incoming company would be purchasing 90% of the project and the guarantee of the ML would be part of the takeover.

So what about the 15% dispute with Dathomir? Well, the ICC case is already logged. This 15% on takeover goes to AVZ, based on their legally justified position, with the threat of the ICC overturning this and the amounts relayed to Dathomir. Based on the information I have seen about the sale, I consider this threat a low risk.

Win/win/ save face/ immediate relief for the people of Manono/ CKK jail/ fuck Zijin

And where did you emerged from with such a detailed hypothesis?

 

[Cumquat Cap]

very good analysis and think you are spot on, hoping $avz trotting the globe getting competing takeover offers (outside China) to drive up our bargaining position. I think we never trade again but are bought out for a healthy premium of last trade (avz has more leverage then people are alluding to via ICSID and water tight documentation).

 

[Onthefm]

IMHO

This is hypothetical (fanciful) only as I don’t know anything nor pretend to.

I have been thinking about what the end game is here, and what is the incentive for all participants to make it happen. As speculated, the latest ICSID potentially may do irrevocable damage to the relationship between AVZ and the DRC Govt, so a takeover is a more likely option. Contrary to popular troll theory, I don’t think the Govt will rip the current entitlement away from AVZ and give it to Zijin – the pursuing ramifications for DRC reputation and future investment from anywhere would be destroyed.

The current ICC ownership disputes of Dathcom also need to be resolved before the takeover can occur….or do they?

Currently:-

AVZ 60%

AVZ / Dathomir dispute ICC 15%

Cominere 5%

Cominere / Zijin ROFR dispute ICC 15%

Cominere / MMCS dispute ICC 5%

Personally, I don’t think any takeover can or will occur until clarification on the last two Cominere disputes (Zijin and MMCS). Both of these potentially can be resolved shortly. It is, imo, ‘likely’ to go the way that Cominere retains this 20%. Note the ROFR is still with AVZ but the holding remains with Cominere until triggered, bringing their total to 25%.

Regardless as to any thoughts on sinister high level Govt corruption claims, as a Govt agency, Cominere has won no friends. Their corruption has not been hidden and their incompetence is laid bare for all to see. The DRC Govt would view them as an embarrassment, and win, lose, or draw could not possibly be tolerated in this project. No incoming takeover would allow them to be a partner in this project.

So, the dissolution of Cominere would allow the DRC Govt to retain the 10% (ceded as per the mining code). The remaining 15% is then sold on a takeover and then becomes an injection of funds for the DRC Govt. So, therefore the DRC Govt and AVZ have a vested interest in the takeover. The higher the takeover price, the higher the proceeds the DRC Govt receives. This scenario also allows the DRC Govt to save face against the alleged high level corruption claims and protect its reputation as the process will be ethically transparent. The incoming funds to the DRC Govt could be used for immediate relief for expenditure as they see fit but hopefully a boost to poverty-stricken areas like Manono. If the latest Zijin ICC ‘damages’ claim is the starting point for bidding, then this will make a significant difference.

Obviously, the incoming company would be purchasing 90% of the project and the guarantee of the ML would be part of the takeover.

So what about the 15% dispute with Dathomir? Well, the ICC case is already logged. This 15% on takeover goes to AVZ, based on their legally justified position, with the threat of the ICC overturning this and the amounts relayed to Dathomir. Based on the information I have seen about the sale, I consider this threat a low risk.

Win/win/ save face/ immediate relief for the people of Manono/ CKK jail/ fuck Zijin

Mate great overview and hope you're right. Only problem is even the supposed open/shut mmcs case still is not resolved after ,christ, how many months. But sounds good to me.

 

[Samus]

It seems to be the main problem that ICC and arbitration processes in general are extremely inefficient.
Not good for time sensitive issues such as what we're facing and not good for the spirit of investors.
Along with the inefficiency and stupidity of the DRC government makes for a nightmare scenario.

 

[Manook]

And where did you emerged from with such a detailed hypothesis?

I'm not paranoid. Why who said so?

 

[JasonM]

Mate great overview and hope you're right. Only problem is even the supposed open/shut mmcs case still is not resolved after ,christ, how many months. But sounds good to me.

and thats the rub, how many days, weeks and months to go? Its hard to believe we're coming up to 13 months in suspension and we have nfi when this will be resolved and we'll get our money, mean while the likes of LTR are up over $3/share (good luck to them too) but shows how much we're missing out. ICC case coming up early july, it'll be interesting to see what happens on that front. It would be nice to think the parties will try to negotiate and get to a position where the case is dropped but somehow that seems too much wishful thinking.

 

[Samus]

I'm not paranoid. Why who said so?

Looks like I succeeded in coaxing one troll to pop out of the woodwork looking at your posting history.

 

[Winenut]

 

[Rediah]

I wouldn't take anything he writes as unbiased - on top of the fact that SCMP is controlled by the CCP.

 

[GuruDukun]

Articles from the China morning post have spouted a whole lot of long winded bullshit in the past as well. I get the feeling it's not a factual paper but a propaganda arm of the CCP where they push a specific narrative under the giuse of remaining somewhat neutral.

Not true, at least 10 years ago. Politics have changed though in HK.

 

[tonster66]

I do not see china manufacturing batteries in the DRC. That is not how they work. They want the raw product and develop that on their turf for maximum profit.
It will be very interesting to see what they will do if DRC bans the export of raw lithium.

 

[Samus]

Not true, at least 10 years ago. Politics have changed though in HK.

Umm

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[MoneyBags1348]

View attachment 38570

You could ask yourself whether it was more likely you see this person’s face in a photo holding hands with your daughter or in a photo in handcuffs on a police station wall…. Say’s he keeps an eye on Chinese investment in infrastructure related to energy and metals. Haven’t seen him write anything about how China has ripped off the DRC when it comes to those three things

When you read the article it sounds like Tshisekedi is definitely trying to promote Chinese companies in the processing of lithium around Manono. In my view it is impossible to say he has not known about our situation. On top of that I believe we have been led on by the government the whole time we have been developing Manono and I hope Nigel tears them a new arsehole in the arbitration cases

@BEISHA I believe you have been spot on the whole time mate

 

[MoneyBags1348]

You could ask yourself whether it was more likely you see this person’s face in a photo holding hands with your daughter or in a photo in handcuffs on police station wall…. Say’s he keeps an eye on Chinese investment in infrastructure related to energy and metals. Haven’t seen him write anything about the how China has ripped off the DRC when it comes to those three things
View attachment 38577

When you read the article it sounds like Tshisekedi is definitely trying to promote Chinese companies in the processing of lithium around Manono. In my view it is impossible to say he has not known about our situation. On top of that I believe we have been led on by the government the whole time we have been developing Manono and I hope Nigel tears them a new arsehole in the arbitration cases

@BEISHA I believe you have been spot on the whole time mate

Here is a link related to the World Bank and the DRC Mining Cadastre. It has useful information and is worth a read ahead of the arbitration case in the US. It’s 96 pages long but you can refer to the index at the front and go straight to the information you want

I’m not going to spoil anyone’s surprise by telling you what I read, at this time of night I just want to relax, but I reckon it’s well worth a read

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/f37d83d2-ef33-5648-a5e4-f5e497037e8a/content