Yes I think there's a lot, that prior to suspension who wouldn't touch AVZ with a barge pole, until ML was in hand and their decision in that has been bang on the money; can't argue with that. I think AVZ LTs were quite ballsy...some would say stupid, holding through the whole process right up to decree; although many fence sitters were biting their lips when AVZ was rocketing, thinking that maybe they’d fucked up and should have just jumped on....no doubt they’re still laughing now.
ML was / is the big hinge point for AVZ ; I think once that's over the line, announced and trading resumes the volume will be huge with some large whipsawing ; there's going to be a couple hundred million forced sales over the first week; index funds ETF do not have to simply push the sell button on opening ; they’ll exit in a controlled manner.
First up will be retail I reckon, retail expects it to drop like a stone, so many will be thinking, quickest to the botton and sell first, get the highest price before it dives ; this will be a mix of selling in order to quence their dried up accounts /paying ATO / just get my cash out if this thing etc and also those thinking to offload and get back in lower ; some of the smaller volume funds will also likely just offload here if possible and move out ; but here also waits buyers who see value in a significantly derisked AVZ with it's ML, along with these will be shorts conscious of the short volume (146m), although I reckon a decent chunk of these will be sold on cross trades pre arranged with funds index/etfs ; the balance of index funds I reckon will be slower as they’ll wait for the initial shock to pass and then start to offload into those non index tied funds (canacord etc) , traders, re entrant and new entrants (whom thought they’s missed out prior to suspension) start to move in.
We’ve seen the LIT sector welcome a few new explorers who have knocked out some decent results of late creating some great gains ; so I reckon some punters will be happy enough to play on those explorers in less risk jurisdictions and not bother with the likes of AVZ; however some of these have already exceeded or close to AVZs MC with a fraction of a resource ; I reckon AVZ will pull back sharply to early 50s / MC sub $2b ; from which point a few lightbulbs will pop as the seriously good value / easy money sign goes up and demand begins to outweigh supply, shorts run to cover before the tide comes back in. I expect down to early 50s, back up into the 80s within a couple of weeks
It's been interesting seeing the yanks, Saudi's, japs and co visiting DRC and talks around this battery hub swirling......but still one big chunk seems to be missing from public discussions I.e. Manono. If after ML is granted and news follows of this battery hub with inputs from US/ UAE / JAP / CHINA, well then I see this blow past ATHs pretty quickly ; irregardless of this I also think that we’ll hit a second Chinese wave, but this time with some angled TO bid ; I reckon the Chinese wanted to scupper AVZ just before ML, ML grant would likely have been the point where others would have thought risk has abated with award and possible offers for the company would be made; the Chinese likely tried to run AVZ aground just after decree and have avz to themselves and try wear them down, make a cheap bid, failing that continue to grind down.
Should FT do the right thing and give notification to CAMi to release the ML and stop the Chinese through zijin / cami / ajn in their tracks I think some substantial events will take place over the following few weeks which should have us doing a 180 on sentiment ; I doubt we’ll ever forget the suspension in any case
Apparently any bid would need to be over $4.5B
US which is just shy of $2 AUD as it stands to even get the BoD to start to consider. So Zijin and co ; that's the real first step
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