AVZ Discussion 2022

[TDITD]

I was discussing our situation and financing privately a few weeks back with @Winenut @Sammael @Frank @JAG.

My thinking was that if CATH only took a 9% interest in Dathcom then the rest of their funding might be provided as a pre-payment for SC6. Nuts suggested that it would more than likely be provided as debt rather than pre-payment. My initial concern was that if it was provided as pre-payment for SC6 we would not be getting the revenue to pay off our debt. Anyway, it led to my following reply to Nuts and the group, including the following calculations....


If CATH only take 9% and provide us with additional capital via debt, we would have a lot of debt and interest to pay off and at some point I will try and come up with some figures to work off.

A random guess to start

1) AVZ 90% equity in Dathcom (best case)
2) Minus 9% equity to CATH
3) Minus 20% equity to DFI’s
4) $300mil debt funding CATH
5) $400mil debt funding DFI’s
6) $150mil Capital Raise (Equity) or Debt
> required for Cominiere’s 15%

Outcome

1) AVZ 61% equity in Dathcom
2) CATH 9% equity in Dathcom
3) DFI’s 20% equity in Dathcom
4) Total debt (CATH / DFI’s / Cominiere)
> $850mil

5) Annual debt repayment $115mil
6) Annual interest payment $85mil
7) Current annual OPEX $50mil

I’ve added on the current OPEX ($50mil) to our projected CAPEX $ (debt) to be safe…. considering drilling etc will continue…. and then you also need to consider extra capital required for PLS production and other expansions.

I’m pretty sure the $1billion CAPEX doesn’t include the increased production from 4mtpa SC6 to 10mtpa…. So, a few things to think about fellas

That’s all just off the top of my head without factoring share dilution and it factored in full ownership of Dathomir and Cominiere’s shares…. So perhaps a best-case scenario

Just putting it out there and just something to get us started when considering finances, it might take us a while to get our heads around it…. And it could be 6 months before we know ownership….

Also in relation to this last point regarding Cominiere’s shares…. Management have been ambiguous about coming out of suspension but

1) Pan African DFI’s won’t provide finance without ML

2) Therefore we will have to come out of suspension to raise capital (finance) for Cominiere’s 15% if we don’t have the ML issued unless CATH provide that finance as well CAPEX finance

3) If CATH provide finance (for CAPEX) and finance (for Cominiere’s 15%) it would make our debt repayments to them $450mil going by above calculations

4) So things might be riding on CATH if Felix can’t get rid of Mupande and Lukonde won’t get rid of MoP



I know there are a few shareholders on TSE who are accountants, who might play around with these calculations (or not)…. Doesn’t matter really, the reason I ended up posting this is because I try to assess our financial situation moving forward as our BOD and CFO don’t provide information on our financials other than the cash and cash equivalents at the end of each Quarter.

No doubt financial institutions will be running the numbers on our company and our project, so for any retail investors interested in accountancy or a general overview of our financial situation, here are some more examples to play with as base case scenarios:

These financial projections are based on CATH taking 9% of the project (Dathcom) which would include them paying $100mil towards CAPEX…. Then the $300mil could either be debt, pre-paid offtake or in AVZ shares which would dilute our SOI by just under 10%.

The Pan African DFI’s could take 20% of the project (Dathcom) making them cough up $200mil in CAPEX and then either provide debt or buy % in AVZ shares (again diluting our SOI)…. Or a combination of both:

Examples of Pan African financing could be:

> 20% equity stake in Dathcom
> $400mil debt funding

Or

> 20% equity stake in Dathcom
> $200mil debt funding
> $200mil equity in AVZ shares (Dilution to investors SOI = 7.5%)


One example of financing using the above metrics could be:

> Total dilution of CATH and DFI’s to current SOI = 17.5%
> Leaving AVZ debt repayments on $650 million
> Years to pay off debt > ?


A few things that need to be factored in to the above metrics are whether or not we have ownership in Dathcom of 60%....75% or 90%....
My estimate of the Quarter just ending 31st December 2022 is we have around $36 million left in cash and cash equivalents
I personally value our project at $15 billion + and also bear in mind time lines and other factors

Maybe (ok highly likely) I'm being a bit slow but surely we could get a far superior deal. Surely these guys are working off the latest BFS numbers. And the DFI, Africa bank bollocks (cant remember the name of it off the top) is supposedly to help build infrastructure and improvements on the continent and such, not what our banks generally do and ream us at every opportunity.

In your outcome, why not have an option for CATL to 'earn in' to the project - with a 9% start off an agreement to pay their 9% share but also to then put up a loan for rest of our initial agreement and they can buy in the remaining 15% upon conditions relating to the ICC clown show. They are apparently only wanting product and desperately need it, ok front up the loan at better than bank rates which we only start paying interest on the loan once the mine is built.

This shouldn't only work one way, which is much the same to the DFIs for finance too, best rates as this is to build Africa not just your coffers.

Could we then do a half debt half equity deal with the DFIs with conditions set that we have the option to buy back the equity from the DFIs, so they pay for their equity part of the deal spreading the risk at the start but then we can buy back the shares at market after ?

I suppose what I'm saying is FFS can we at least think out of the box and secure good terms for AVZ for once around finance we have had so damn long to do so!

 

[Carlos Danger]

Maybe (ok highly likely) I'm being a bit slow but surely we could get a far superior deal. Surely these guys are working off the latest BFS numbers. And the DFI, Africa bank bollocks (cant remember the name of it off the top) is supposedly to help build infrastructure and improvements on the continent and such, not what our banks generally do and ream us at every opportunity.

In your outcome, why not have an option for CATL to 'earn in' to the project - with a 9% start off an agreement to pay their 9% share but also to then put up a loan for rest of our initial agreement and they can buy in the remaining 15% upon conditions relating to the ICC clown show. They are apparently only wanting product and desperately need it, ok front up the loan at better than bank rates which we only start paying interest on the loan once the mine is built.

This shouldn't only work one way, which is much the same to the DFIs for finance too, best rates as this is to build Africa not just your coffers.

Could we then do a half debt half equity deal with the DFIs with conditions set that we have the option to buy back the equity from the DFIs, so they pay for their equity part of the deal spreading the risk at the start but then we can buy back the shares at market after ?

I suppose what I'm saying is FFS can we at least think out of the box and secure good terms for AVZ for once around finance we have had so damn long to do so!

This is definitely possible if CATL are keen. Could be why Mr Pei was in Perth. Conditions would probs be loan is cancelled when 15% from Cominiere is sorted out or paid off gradually through supply with AVZ paying interest until either of those events are completed.

 

[DoubleA]

This is definitely possible if CATL are keen. Could be why Mr Pei was in Perth. Conditions would probs be loan is cancelled when 15% from Cominiere is sorted out or paid off gradually through supply with AVZ paying interest until either of those events are completed.
View attachment 26050

In my opinion AVZ should and will be very very careful about announcing anything relating to giving CATH 9% even to start with, as the implication would then be that they believe there is a chance that AVZ may lose the 15%.

 

[BEISHA]

Shorter than the previous extension
View attachment 25997

Fuck me, another 2 month extension..........

This is getting ridiculous.!!

All this talk of CATH percentages, may as well not bother , just extend the JV deal until ICC arbitration deliberations in April........see where the dust lies then......

One thing is for sure, cant see AVZ producing in 2024.

farken

 

[Carlos Danger]

In my opinion AVZ should and will be very very careful about announcing anything relating to giving CATH 9% even to start with, as the implication would then be that they believe there is a chance that AVZ may lose the 15%.

No nexus there. We can amend deals whenever and however we want as long as the other party agrees imo

The question of law that the ICC will look at (If Cong is willing to risk being made liable for damages) is whether Cong objectively intended to enter into a binding contract and if he received his consideration after accepting the offer. Which he did.

 

[Onthefm]

I

In my opinion AVZ should and will be very very careful about announcing anything relating to giving CATH 9% even to start with, as the implication would then be that they believe there is a chance that AVZ may lose the 15%.

think It's not a good idea to be dependant on cath at all. Surely over this last 12 months bod have been talking to other suitors. Well I'm hoping so that's about the only silver lining that could possibly come out of this shitshow. Imo

Christ I've used shitshow that often that I only get to the sh and the first word that comes up is shitshow. That can't be good.

 

[MoneyBags1348]

The only 'major' that would touch us is Chinese, who are globally known for paying a fair and equitable price for assets. If its Zijin a minimum fuckwit tax of $1 gets added to whatever the board would accept from others, they need to overpay.

CATL can have it for $3 after we have announced BFS but before we start construction and deal with the absolute cesspit of corruption, that will likely continue to plague the nations largest project.

Its like corruption on corruptions back stealing from corruption whose doing time for murdering corruption that was squatting illegally in corruptions house paid for with corrupt and counterfeit money !

Cynical tits out tonight

Well I’m glad the post drew some consideration around finance.

TITS…. Glad you added your comments. Considering financial possibilities going forward is good for shareholders. I learned a long time ago the importance of company financials, and a few hypothetical proposals at least bring some awareness around the different possibilities moving forward.

@DoubleA …. What would you say or think if I said the original suggestion of CATH only taking 9% came from the company?

After writing that post and having a base to work off, my view now is that finance won’t be sorted until ownership is sorted.

And at least if the company reads these threads, they know some shareholders are following the financials.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Fuck me, another 2 month extension..........

This is getting ridiculous.!!

All this talk of CATH percentages, may as well not bother , just extend the JV deal until ICC arbitration deliberations in April........see where the dust lies then......

One thing is for sure, cant see AVZ producing in 2024.

farken

The ICC arbitration in April is about the 15% from Cominiere which AVZ has never owned

We won't be waiting for any ICC ruling to get the licence imo

 

[DoubleA]

No nexus there. We can amend deals whenever and however we want as long as the other party agrees imo

The question of law that the ICC will look at (If Cong is willing to risk being made liable for damages) is whether Cong objectively intended to enter into a binding contract and if he received his consideration after accepting the offer. Which he did.

I am not saying that the deal cannot be amended.

I am not saying the ICC will side with Cong.

What I am saying is AVZ need to be very very careful about changing the CATH percentage as a result of Zijin/Cong's actions. AVZ's position is that AVZ have good legal title to 75% and could therefore sell 24% to CATH and retain 51%. If AVZ now change this by 15% (the exact amount of the dispute) the perception/questions that will likely arise are, well hang on, how sure are you that you really have good legal title?

If the percentages are changed how long do you think it will be before detractors use this to put out a heap of articles and misinformation saying AVZ had to reduce CATH sale agreement percentage as Zijin/Dathomir have good legal title etc? They would try and use whatever they can.

There are both benefits and drawbacks to changing the percentage. AVZ may do it as the best way to move the project forward, but I don't think it is a simple decision that AVZ will take lightly. As I said, I think AVZ should and will be very careful about announcing anything relating to giving CATH 9%. If they think things may be resolved in the next few months, then that may also be the course of action they take.

 

[DoubleA]

@DoubleA …. What would you say or think if I said the original suggestion of CATH only taking 9% came from the company?

I'd say, yeah I know, I heard Nigel say it too.

I still think they will be very careful about announcing anything like this and will try to explore other options as there are all sorts of implications for the project when you start making changes like that.

Edit - and by announcing I mean announcing that the agreement percentage has in fact been changed to 9%, not announcing in discussions/presentations CATH's willingness to accept a lower percentage.

 

[TDITD]

Fuck me, another 2 month extension..........

This is getting ridiculous.!!

All this talk of CATH percentages, may as well not bother , just extend the JV deal until ICC arbitration deliberations in April........see where the dust lies then......

One thing is for sure, cant see AVZ producing in 2024.

farken

Should we get a group of us investors together and head over with shovels ? We can offer CATL DSO
We can use the fancy new accommodation at AVZ sitting there doing nothing.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I am not saying that the deal cannot be amended.

I am not saying the ICC will side with Cong.

What I am saying is AVZ need to be very very careful about changing the CATH percentage as a result of Zijin/Cong's actions. AVZ's position is that AVZ have good legal title to 75% and could therefore sell 24% to CATH and retain 51%. If AVZ now change this by 15% (the exact amount of the dispute) the perception/questions that will likely arise are, well hang on, how sure are you that you really have good legal title?

If the percentages are changed how long do you think it will be before detractors use this to put out a heap of articles and misinformation saying AVZ had to reduce CATH sale agreement percentage as Zijin/Dathomir have good legal title etc? They would try and use whatever they can.

There are both benefits and drawbacks to changing the percentage. AVZ may do it as the best way to move the project forward, but I don't think it is a simple decision that AVZ will take lightly. As I said, I think AVZ should and will be very careful about announcing anything relating to giving CATH 9%. If they think things may be resolved in the next few months, then that may also be the course of action they take.

Yeah I get it but let em hate. The problem is Mupande.

 

[TDITD]

I am not saying that the deal cannot be amended.

I am not saying the ICC will side with Cong.

What I am saying is AVZ need to be very very careful about changing the CATH percentage as a result of Zijin/Cong's actions. AVZ's position is that AVZ have good legal title to 75% and could therefore sell 24% to CATH and retain 51%. If AVZ now change this by 15% (the exact amount of the dispute) the perception/questions that will likely arise are, well hang on, how sure are you that you really have good legal title?

If the percentages are changed how long do you think it will be before detractors use this to put out a heap of articles and misinformation saying AVZ had to reduce CATH sale agreement percentage as Zijin/Dathomir have good legal title etc? They would try and use whatever they can.

There are both benefits and drawbacks to changing the percentage. AVZ may do it as the best way to move the project forward, but I don't think it is a simple decision that AVZ will take lightly. As I said, I think AVZ should and will be very careful about announcing anything relating to giving CATH 9%. If they think things may be resolved in the next few months, then that may also be the course of action they take.

Agree with you the twats will be twats, but there is one thing you can count on, and that’s that twats will always be twats. Tommy tittle tattle and boatman will always look to misrepresent what has been announced as we have already seen.

As long as us shareholders and investors can see the deal is good and we are protected also that CATL are fully on board then really any BS from the shorters won’t really matter anyhow as it will be futile and fairly transparent.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Agree with you the twats will be twats, but there is one thing you can count on, and that’s that twats will always be twats. Tommy tittle tattle and boatman will always look to misrepresent what has been announced as we have already seen.

As long as us shareholders and investors can see the deal is good and we are protected also that CATL are fully on board then really any BS from the shorters won’t really matter anyhow as it will be futile and fairly transparent.

They will talk shit about us no matter what we do so we might as well get the project moving to shut them the fuck up imo

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

This is definitely possible if CATL are keen. Could be why Mr Pei was in Perth. Conditions would probs be loan is cancelled when 15% from Cominiere is sorted out or paid off gradually through supply with AVZ paying interest until either of those events are completed.
View attachment 26050

Do you think he was impressed by our extravagant lift lobby for the photo shoot?

 

[TDITD]

Do you think he was impressed by our extravagant lift lobby for the photo shoot?

Must be all the rage with the celebrities and high flyers…..
I hear this was fully booked out …

 

[whales]

Yeah I get it but let em hate. The problem is Mupande.

Mupande has had 7 months to work out the surface rights.
How is that possible if AJN has a claim to the northern part of Carrier and AVZ has legal title to it.
How did this occur?
The President knows about the deceit and trickery involved but what is he doing?

Manono Project — AVZ Minerals Limited

Projects Manono Project

avzminerals.com.au

Hopefully, the IGF gets involved in how AJN was able to negotiate part of 13359

 

[whales]

Mupande has had 7 months to work out the surface rights.
How is that possible if AJN has a claim to the northern part of Carrier and AVZ has legal title to it.
How did this occur?
The President knows about the deceit and trickery involved but what is he doing?

Manono Project — AVZ Minerals Limited

Projects Manono Project

avzminerals.com.au

Hopefully, the IGF gets involved in how AJN was able to negotiate part of 13359

The positive news is that 13359 Northern section not involved.

AJN Resources Announces Signing of Binding Term Sheet to Acquire 75% Indirect Interest in Highly Prospective Lithium Application Permit Located on the Kabunda Trend in Eastern DRC

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - January 3, 2023) - AJN Resources Inc. (CSE: AJN) (FSE: 5AT) ("AJN" or the "Company") is pleased to a...

www.juniorminingnetwork.com

 

[TDITD]

A sign AJN has failed in stealing part of our tenement ? #FuckMupande



Edit
*lol that was quick, some shitfuckery by them made original tweet show up as unavailable, I will keep reposting the link

 

[whales]

The positive news is that 13359 Northern section not involved.

AJN Resources Announces Signing of Binding Term Sheet to Acquire 75% Indirect Interest in Highly Prospective Lithium Application Permit Located on the Kabunda Trend in Eastern DRC

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - January 3, 2023) - AJN Resources Inc. (CSE: AJN) (FSE: 5AT) ("AJN" or the "Company") is pleased to a...

www.juniorminingnetwork.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ajn-resources-inc-announces-drc-183600128.

Still uncertain


Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - November 30, 2022) - AJN Resources Inc. (CSE: AJN) (FSE: 5AT) ("AJN" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that further to the Company's news release of November 1st, 2022, and pursuant to the Memorandum of Understanding (the "MoU") between the Company and the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo ("DRC" or the "State") announced on February 8th, 2022, which was endorsed by the State as announced on April 19th, 2022, the Cadastre Minier RDC (DRC Mining Register) ("CAMI") has now responded to applications from Congo Ressources SAU ("CRS") to acquire certain gold exploration permits, which are located in the Kilo-Moto Belt in the north-eastern DRC as shown in Figure 1, and an area located in Tanganyika Province that is prospective for lithium and that originates from the partial relinquishment (which is disputed) of exploration permit number PR 13359, which covers the northern portion of the Manono pegmatite as shown in Figures 2 and 3.

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - November 30, 2022) - AJN Resources Inc. (CSE: AJN) (FSE: