Carlos Danger
Top 20
Shorter than the previous extension
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
TDITD
Top 20
CATH must surely be applying pressure to get the mine started, not exactly a company you mug off with everything DRC are claiming to want to be. Mr Pei and Nigel need to get Felix in a meeting an knock some heads. Lets go guys, ffs lets not have 'extension' be AVZs word for 2023
Wish you all happy new year!
I hope to sell/transfer some of my shares through contract sale while the company is in suspension.
Is anyone had any experience on this or if they know any broking firms are doing this, please respond to me privately.
Thanks for your time and response.
I hope to sell/transfer some of my shares through contract sale while the company is in suspension.
Is anyone had any experience on this or if they know any broking firms are doing this, please respond to me privately.
Thanks for your time and response.
TDITD
Top 20
at $2 they can have SOME of mine, only some.
TDITD
Top 20
The BOD should offer to buy any shares we wish to sell them
. At a fair price, factoring in damage caused by the suspension. So what say $2 a share.
TDITD
Top 20
Well this is likely going to burn my Sauce, but since you asked I'm going to say "fuck it" an risk losing the sauce.
OK,
Tims dads cousin who's sister is shagging a guy (Rhett) who works for a company that makes the particular dog food that Nigels dog likes (Dogs a shiatzu called Imminent btw), well you see Nigels dog "Imminent" is best friends with a bitch that's neighbours to Jan the neapolitan mastiff that catches up every fortnight at the beach for a run with graeme the rottweiler, apparently Ben the pug was there too and was partially overheard by John the puli while sniffing graemes ass to have said "the ML is being withheld until we can give its release the celebration it deserves at the Kanamara Matsuri festival", also
apparently there was a dodgy looking chinese crested hanging around the group the whole time trying to get a sniff in.
I think this would be right down your street @Peter Clark
Azzler
Top 20
Hey mate, is are your shares under a chess holding (HIN) or sponsored holding (SRN)?
Thanks for your response.
My accounts are in HIN. Does it matter? Hope to get a response from you Azzler, so I learn something new today.
Azzler
Top 20
Unfortunately, as far as I'm aware, Chess holding (HIN) shares can't be traded off market during a supension.
I asked my broker this as I was hoping to sell some of mine. They told me the chess system wont alow the trade.
I'd love if anyone can verify this info though.
Retrobyte
Hates a beer
If only you were German
MoneyBags1348
Top 20
I was discussing our situation and financing privately a few weeks back with @Winenut @Sammael @Frank @JAG.
My thinking was that if CATH only took a 9% interest in Dathcom then the rest of their funding might be provided as a pre-payment for SC6. Nuts suggested that it would more than likely be provided as debt rather than pre-payment. My initial concern was that if it was provided as pre-payment for SC6 we would not be getting the revenue to pay off our debt. Anyway, it led to my following reply to Nuts and the group, including the following calculations....
If CATH only take 9% and provide us with additional capital via debt, we would have a lot of debt and interest to pay off and at some point I will try and come up with some figures to work off.
A random guess to start
1) AVZ 90% equity in Dathcom (best case)
2) Minus 9% equity to CATH
3) Minus 20% equity to DFI’s
4) $300mil debt funding CATH
5) $400mil debt funding DFI’s
6) $150mil Capital Raise (Equity) or Debt
> required for Cominiere’s 15%
Outcome
1) AVZ 61% equity in Dathcom
2) CATH 9% equity in Dathcom
3) DFI’s 20% equity in Dathcom
4) Total debt (CATH / DFI’s / Cominiere)
> $850mil
5) Annual debt repayment $115mil
6) Annual interest payment $85mil
7) Current annual OPEX $50mil
I’ve added on the current OPEX ($50mil) to our projected CAPEX $ (debt) to be safe…. considering drilling etc will continue…. and then you also need to consider extra capital required for PLS production and other expansions.
I’m pretty sure the $1billion CAPEX doesn’t include the increased production from 4mtpa SC6 to 10mtpa…. So, a few things to think about fellas
That’s all just off the top of my head without factoring share dilution and it factored in full ownership of Dathomir and Cominiere’s shares…. So perhaps a best-case scenario
Just putting it out there and just something to get us started when considering finances, it might take us a while to get our heads around it…. And it could be 6 months before we know ownership….
Also in relation to this last point regarding Cominiere’s shares…. Management have been ambiguous about coming out of suspension but
1) Pan African DFI’s won’t provide finance without ML
2) Therefore we will have to come out of suspension to raise capital (finance) for Cominiere’s 15% if we don’t have the ML issued unless CATH provide that finance as well CAPEX finance
3) If CATH provide finance (for CAPEX) and finance (for Cominiere’s 15%) it would make our debt repayments to them $450mil going by above calculations
4) So things might be riding on CATH if Felix can’t get rid of Mupande and Lukonde won’t get rid of MoP
I know there are a few shareholders on TSE who are accountants, who might play around with these calculations (or not)…. Doesn’t matter really, the reason I ended up posting this is because I try to assess our financial situation moving forward as our BOD and CFO don’t provide information on our financials other than the cash and cash equivalents at the end of each Quarter.
No doubt financial institutions will be running the numbers on our company and our project, so for any retail investors interested in accountancy or a general overview of our financial situation, here are some more examples to play with as base case scenarios:
These financial projections are based on CATH taking 9% of the project (Dathcom) which would include them paying $100mil towards CAPEX…. Then the $300mil could either be debt, pre-paid offtake or in AVZ shares which would dilute our SOI by just under 10%.
The Pan African DFI’s could take 20% of the project (Dathcom) making them cough up $200mil in CAPEX and then either provide debt or buy % in AVZ shares (again diluting our SOI)…. Or a combination of both:
Examples of Pan African financing could be:
> 20% equity stake in Dathcom
> $400mil debt funding
Or
> 20% equity stake in Dathcom
> $200mil debt funding
> $200mil equity in AVZ shares (Dilution to investors SOI = 7.5%)
One example of financing using the above metrics could be:
> Total dilution of CATH and DFI’s to current SOI = 17.5%
> Leaving AVZ debt repayments on $650 million
> Years to pay off debt > ?
A few things that need to be factored in to the above metrics are whether or not we have ownership in Dathcom of 60%....75% or 90%....
My estimate of the Quarter just ending 31st December 2022 is we have around $36 million left in cash and cash equivalents
I personally value our project at $15 billion + and also bear in mind time lines and other factors
My thinking was that if CATH only took a 9% interest in Dathcom then the rest of their funding might be provided as a pre-payment for SC6. Nuts suggested that it would more than likely be provided as debt rather than pre-payment. My initial concern was that if it was provided as pre-payment for SC6 we would not be getting the revenue to pay off our debt. Anyway, it led to my following reply to Nuts and the group, including the following calculations....
If CATH only take 9% and provide us with additional capital via debt, we would have a lot of debt and interest to pay off and at some point I will try and come up with some figures to work off.
A random guess to start
1) AVZ 90% equity in Dathcom (best case)
2) Minus 9% equity to CATH
3) Minus 20% equity to DFI’s
4) $300mil debt funding CATH
5) $400mil debt funding DFI’s
6) $150mil Capital Raise (Equity) or Debt
> required for Cominiere’s 15%
Outcome
1) AVZ 61% equity in Dathcom
2) CATH 9% equity in Dathcom
3) DFI’s 20% equity in Dathcom
4) Total debt (CATH / DFI’s / Cominiere)
> $850mil
5) Annual debt repayment $115mil
6) Annual interest payment $85mil
7) Current annual OPEX $50mil
I’ve added on the current OPEX ($50mil) to our projected CAPEX $ (debt) to be safe…. considering drilling etc will continue…. and then you also need to consider extra capital required for PLS production and other expansions.
I’m pretty sure the $1billion CAPEX doesn’t include the increased production from 4mtpa SC6 to 10mtpa…. So, a few things to think about fellas
That’s all just off the top of my head without factoring share dilution and it factored in full ownership of Dathomir and Cominiere’s shares…. So perhaps a best-case scenario
Just putting it out there and just something to get us started when considering finances, it might take us a while to get our heads around it…. And it could be 6 months before we know ownership….
Also in relation to this last point regarding Cominiere’s shares…. Management have been ambiguous about coming out of suspension but
1) Pan African DFI’s won’t provide finance without ML
2) Therefore we will have to come out of suspension to raise capital (finance) for Cominiere’s 15% if we don’t have the ML issued unless CATH provide that finance as well CAPEX finance
3) If CATH provide finance (for CAPEX) and finance (for Cominiere’s 15%) it would make our debt repayments to them $450mil going by above calculations
4) So things might be riding on CATH if Felix can’t get rid of Mupande and Lukonde won’t get rid of MoP
I know there are a few shareholders on TSE who are accountants, who might play around with these calculations (or not)…. Doesn’t matter really, the reason I ended up posting this is because I try to assess our financial situation moving forward as our BOD and CFO don’t provide information on our financials other than the cash and cash equivalents at the end of each Quarter.
No doubt financial institutions will be running the numbers on our company and our project, so for any retail investors interested in accountancy or a general overview of our financial situation, here are some more examples to play with as base case scenarios:
These financial projections are based on CATH taking 9% of the project (Dathcom) which would include them paying $100mil towards CAPEX…. Then the $300mil could either be debt, pre-paid offtake or in AVZ shares which would dilute our SOI by just under 10%.
The Pan African DFI’s could take 20% of the project (Dathcom) making them cough up $200mil in CAPEX and then either provide debt or buy % in AVZ shares (again diluting our SOI)…. Or a combination of both:
Examples of Pan African financing could be:
> 20% equity stake in Dathcom
> $400mil debt funding
Or
> 20% equity stake in Dathcom
> $200mil debt funding
> $200mil equity in AVZ shares (Dilution to investors SOI = 7.5%)
One example of financing using the above metrics could be:
> Total dilution of CATH and DFI’s to current SOI = 17.5%
> Leaving AVZ debt repayments on $650 million
> Years to pay off debt > ?
A few things that need to be factored in to the above metrics are whether or not we have ownership in Dathcom of 60%....75% or 90%....
My estimate of the Quarter just ending 31st December 2022 is we have around $36 million left in cash and cash equivalents
I personally value our project at $15 billion + and also bear in mind time lines and other factors
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Too hard basket mate . Lets just get this f--king ML so we can be swallowed by a Major ($2-$3 ) . Let someone else worry about this sh1t . Building a mine in the DRC ? What could possibly go wrong ?
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Best bet is to call the ASX on 131 279, or 02 8973 3625 or +61 2 9338 0000 (from overseas). CHESS is their system so if anyone can give you a definitive answer it will be them.
Let them know it's about AVZ which is suspended and ask them if they will allow your broker to process shares sold privately through an Off Market Transfer.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
CHESS direct phone number is 1300 300 279. Will probs be quicker than going through the ASX.
TDITD
Top 20
The only 'major' that would touch us is Chinese, who are globally known for paying a fair and equitable price for assets. If its Zijin a minimum fuckwit tax of $1 gets added to whatever the board would accept from others, they need to overpay.
CATL can have it for $3 after we have announced BFS but before we start construction and deal with the absolute cesspit of corruption, that will likely continue to plague the nations largest project.
Its like corruption on corruptions back stealing from corruption whose doing time for murdering corruption that was squatting illegally in corruptions house paid for with corrupt and counterfeit money !
Cynical tits out tonight
TDITD
Top 20
Maybe (ok highly likely) I'm being a bit slow but surely we could get a far superior deal. Surely these guys are working off the latest BFS numbers. And the DFI, Africa bank bollocks (cant remember the name of it off the top) is supposedly to help build infrastructure and improvements on the continent and such, not what our banks generally do and ream us at every opportunity.
In your outcome, why not have an option for CATL to 'earn in' to the project - with a 9% start off an agreement to pay their 9% share but also to then put up a loan for rest of our initial agreement and they can buy in the remaining 15% upon conditions relating to the ICC clown show. They are apparently only wanting product and desperately need it, ok front up the loan at better than bank rates which we only start paying interest on the loan once the mine is built.
This shouldn't only work one way, which is much the same to the DFIs for finance too, best rates as this is to build Africa not just your coffers.
Could we then do a half debt half equity deal with the DFIs with conditions set that we have the option to buy back the equity from the DFIs, so they pay for their equity part of the deal spreading the risk at the start but then we can buy back the shares at market after ?
I suppose what I'm saying is FFS can we at least think out of the box and secure good terms for AVZ for once around finance we have had so damn long to do so!
Carlos Danger
Top 20
This is definitely possible if CATL are keen. Could be why Mr Pei was in Perth. Conditions would probs be loan is cancelled when 15% from Cominiere is sorted out or paid off gradually through supply with AVZ paying interest until either of those events are completed.
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