AVZ Discussion 2022

[BEISHA]

The only way now that anyone can legally control Manono is if they buy out AVZ

Think back to the original Boatman / AFR / Chinese news articles about Zijin's claims that they 'bought' the 15% of Dathcom from Cominiere. The sheer obnoxious gloating that no one would have over 50% and control the project. Little Tommy was wetting himself with excitement so much he forgot to tell his readers that the CATL deal could be amended.

Although at that stage all the market had been told was that CATL had waived all conditions (including getting the mining licence). So nice of them to just want to get the deal done at 24%. Luckily someone was thinking outside the box. Nigel first mentioned the possibility that CATL were willing to accept 9% a few weeks after I suggested it in this forum.

View attachment 25351

If Zijin (or any other overseas entity) buys out AVZ and takes it private then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB to consider because the deposit isn't in Australia imo. Hopefully we never need to find out.

The other thing to consider about FIRB's opposition to Yibin Tianyi is that decision was made at the height of the trade war tensions between Australia and China caused by the fallout from ScoMo asking for an independent inquiry into the Wuhan Lab. I doubt Chalmers would have quite the same chip on his shoulder that Frydenberg had.

Our saving grace may be tax considerations. But considering AVZ International (which technically owns the 75% of Dathcom so running Dathcom through a private subsidiary is allowed under DRC law imo) is headquartered in Singapore (which has a corporate tax rate of 17% vs Australia's 30%) I'd say AVZ's current plan is to run all profits through there first.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this but the barbarians are at the gate imo

View attachment 25353

Hi Carlos

Did i hear right that you have a law back ground.........or was it someone else ?...


" If Zijin ( or any other overseas entity ) buys AVZ and takes it private, then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB as the deposit is outside of Australia "

So run me thru how that scenario could play out......

Is it a matter of waiting on the side lines for AVZ to be drained of finances and be delisted from the ASX , then come in and swoop ?

Or are there other avenues of attack ?

Personally i am having a hard time equating that scenario, not only would it be the death knell of international investment for DRC (outside of china) , but it would also be the end of the political career of FT too.

Then i would imagine there would be a mass sign up to DEELAND ( if such a coy exists ) and sue the fuck out of the AVZ bod. ......

Lets just hope that the recent war drums favouring AVZ cause , plus FT promising to use the IGF report and other NGOs advice to quell corruption .........plays out.....

Regards to FIRBs decision on YIBIN, yes that played out in the heat of COVID and trade war tension ( scomo / frydenberg ), but i doubt the stance will change with ALBANESE / CHALMERS in the fold based on the links below........agree ?

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals | U.S. Department of the Interior

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals

www.doi.gov

https://www.state.gov/minerals-security-partnership/

Lithium is a critical mineral and AVZ / DATHCOM has 1/3 of the worlds supply

As we all know , that massive AVZ bubble doesnt include CDT or the updated drill for RD......

Maybe this is the reason the US are showing alot of interest in DRC and no doubt, MANONO....


So in closing, i just cant see how your scenario can play out........AVZ is waaay too valuable to go private and land in Chinas lap...............every avenue must be taken to prevent that from happening or the world will be held to ransom.


imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

Hi Carlos

Did i hear right that you have a law back ground.........or was it someone else ?...


" If Zijin ( or any other overseas entity ) buys AVZ and takes it private, then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB as the deposit is outside of Australia "

So run me thru how that scenario could play out......

Is it a matter of waiting on the side lines for AVZ to be drained of finances and be delisted from the ASX , then come in and swoop ?

Or are there other avenues of attack ?

Personally i am having a hard time equating that scenario, not only would it be the death knell of international investment for DRC (outside of china) , but it would also be the end of the political career of FT too.

Then i would imagine there would be a mass sign up to DEELAND ( if such a coy exists ) and sue the fuck out of the AVZ bod. ......

Lets just hope that the recent war drums favouring AVZ cause , plus FT promising to use the IGF report and other NGOs advice to quell corruption .........plays out.....

Regards to FIRBs decision on YIBIN, yes that played out in the heat of COVID and trade war tension ( scomo / frydenberg ), but i doubt the stance will change with ALBANESE / CHALMERS in the fold based on the links below........agree ?

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals | U.S. Department of the Interior

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals

www.doi.gov

https://www.state.gov/minerals-security-partnership/

Lithium is a critical mineral and AVZ / DATHCOM has 1/3 of the worlds supply

View attachment 25389

As we all know , that massive AVZ bubble doesnt include CDT or the updated drill for RD......

Maybe this is the reason the US are showing alot of interest in DRC and no doubt, MANONO....


So in closing, i just cant see how your scenario can play out........AVZ is waaay too valuable to go private and land in Chinas lap...............every avenue must be taken to prevent that from happening or the world will be held to ransom.


imo

Nah I don't have a law background. I did a few law units at uni so I know a little bit. My theory is that if any company wants to control Manono they must now buy AVZ. It would happen the same way if it was Zijin, Rio Tinto or Tesla. The obvious difference is that if the entity that buys AVZ is based outside of Australia they will need to go through FIRB.

To succeed in acquiring AVZ any potential buyer would need to make an offer that is either acceptable to the board (which would be announced as a friendly takeover and voted on by shareholders) or bypass the board by buying up over 50% of shares (or vote with existing holders) and use a proxy vote to force an EGM to spill the board in a hostile takeover and replace them with a board supported by the majority of shareholders that want to sell. The offer would still then need to be voted on by all shareholders but those wanting to sell would obviously have the numbers.

The big question is if a potential buyer of AVZ is a Chinese company will FIRB allow it. Especially given they didn't want Yibin Tianyi having a seat on the board. The main thing FIRB were upset about was a Chinese government backed company having a vote in the ongoing operations of an ASX listed company. If Zijin hypothetically get enough shares and buy out AVZ they would take it off the ASX and make the company private (which is what Deeland are claiming they want to do).

The simplest way I see to get around FIRB would be for them to transfer AVZ International from AVZ to Zijin. Then wind up AVZ all together. That way they would be left with a parent company based in China with a subsidiary based in Singapore that holds 75% of a joint venture based in the DRC. And crucially no Chinese company having a board seat in an ongoing ASX listed company. At that point I don't see any direct concern about 'Australia's national interest' for FIRB to consider. But I could be wrong as there are other considerations like taxation and possibly strategic concerns.

Maybe I'm jumping at shadows here but if I was Zijin this is exactly what I would do and the arguments I would be using to get around FIRB. I'd also be launching a disinformation campaign about ownership and trying to get shareholders to turn on the board by initiating a class action against them. Zijin have put a noose around the projects neck and will offer frustrated shareholders a quick way out at a price everyone will be in the green for. The longer we wait to trade again the more shareholders will be tempted to sell imo

Here's a decent guide to hostile takeovers in Australia:

A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid. - Insight | MinterEllison

A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid.

www.minterellison.com

 

[JAG]

Anyway, happy day after Boxing Day and day before my birthday

 

[Dom1974]

If DRC Govt take Manono away from AVZ (unlikely scenario), I reckon AVZ would take the Govt to ICC and tie up the resource for years, so nobody gets it. I’m assuming that the resource in question cannot be touched whilst case under international arbitration. A last FU by AVZ.

 

[Frank]

MMCS lost their application through the government and have taken Cominiere to ICC until may 22, in this time AVZ have drilled a lot and made a few changes in the area. So I’m not sure that it’s true with the not be touched scenario and I‘m not sure if it’s possible to take a complete government to ICC, but i questioned this to myself in the past. Even when AVZ would claim for compensation against the government and win this, the drc would not have enough money to pay. So I hope the DRC is clever enough to see that AVZ could have a big leverage in the worst case scenario.

But when this would be a possibility I don’t think/hope AVZ had stated on the 17th October that they are 100% confident of getting a collaboration agreement and a manono sez?

Some might call it a complete Clusterfuck, others may say it's a

Shemozzle

noun: shemozzle;

A state of chaos and confusion; a muddle.

A confused situation or affair

A mess, muddle. slang : quarrel, row.

A problem that really isn't necessary, or that could easily be fixed, but usually isn't.

 

[Longunvest]

https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/running-discussion-on-sp.4111732/page-75067

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

Anyway, happy day after Boxing Day and day before my birthday View attachment 25405

Happy Birthday Jag

 

[Carlos Danger]

Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....

However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.

But seriously , how can that really work ?

AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.

I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............

It never happened, now here we are.

That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......

Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.

Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.


Pull your finger out FT before its too late.

2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!


View attachment 25332


imo

Nah I don't have a law background. I did a few law units at uni so I know a little bit. My theory is that if any company wants to control Manono they must now buy AVZ. It would happen the same way if it was Zijin, Rio Tinto or Tesla. The obvious difference is that if the entity that buys AVZ is based outside of Australia they will need to go through FIRB.

To succeed in acquiring AVZ any potential buyer would need to make an offer that is either acceptable to the board (which would be announced as a friendly takeover and voted on by shareholders) or bypass the board by buying up over 50% of shares (or vote with existing holders) and use a proxy vote to force an EGM to spill the board in a hostile takeover and replace them with a board supported by the majority of shareholders that want to sell. The offer would still then need to be voted on by all shareholders but those wanting to sell would obviously have the numbers.

The big question is if a potential buyer of AVZ is a Chinese company will FIRB allow it. Especially given they didn't want Yibin Tianyi having a seat on the board. The main thing FIRB were upset about was a Chinese government backed company having a vote in the ongoing operations of an ASX listed company. If Zijin hypothetically get enough shares and buy out AVZ they would take it off the ASX and make the company private (which is what Deeland are claiming they want to do).

The simplest way I see to get around FIRB would be for them to transfer AVZ International from AVZ to Zijin. Then wind up AVZ all together. That way they would be left with a parent company based in China with a subsidiary based in Singapore that holds 75% of a joint venture based in the DRC. And crucially no Chinese company having a board seat in an ongoing ASX listed company. At that point I don't see any direct concern about 'Australia's national interest' for FIRB to consider. But I could be wrong as there are other considerations like taxation and possibly strategic concerns.

Maybe I'm jumping at shadows here but if I was Zijin this is exactly what I would do and the arguments I would be using to get around FIRB. I'd also be launching a disinformation campaign about ownership and trying to get shareholders to turn on the board by initiating a class action against them. Zijin have put a noose around the projects neck and will offer frustrated shareholders a quick way out at a price everyone will be in the green for. The longer we wait to trade again the more shareholders will be tempted to sell imo

Here's a decent guide to hostile takeovers in Australia:

A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid. - Insight | MinterEllison

A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid.

www.minterellison.com

Ultimately I think our best chance of avoiding any potential takeover is by getting the mining licence and trading again. But the longer suspension goes on the more of an opportunity it gives Zijin or another buyer to leverage resentment towards the AVZ board into possibly taking control of the company. We have waited for far too long and been given too many missed deadlines and at some point something has to give.

It's time for Tshisekedi to show everyone who he really is

Lions gonna lion imo

US-China Struggle for DR Congo Resources Intensifies | naked capitalism

The Democratic Republic of Congo's estimated $24 trillion of untapped mineral resources is coveted by both the US and China as rivalry heats up.

www.nakedcapitalism.com

As the US intensifies its efforts to cut China off from advanced semiconductors, it is also making a run at the world’s most important source of minerals used in tech: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

On Dec.13, the US signed deals with the DRC and Zambia (the world’s sixth-largest copper producer and second-largest cobalt producer in Africa) that will see the US support the two countries in developing an electric vehicle value chain. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation will explore financing and support mechanisms, and the US Agency for International Development, commerce department and Trade and Development Agency will provide technical assistance.

For more than a decade, Chinese companies have spent billions of dollars buying out U.S. and European miners in the DRC’s Cobalt belt, leading to control of 15 of 19 of the primary cobalt mines in the country.

China sources 60 percent of its cobalt needs from the DRC, and about 80 percent of the world’s cobalt processing occurs in China before being incorporated into lithium-ion batteries.The DRC-China relationship is on the rocks, however, and Chinese mining is starting to encounter an increasing amount of bumps in the road.

In July the DRC halted exports from the world’s second biggest cobalt mine amid an ongoing dispute between the Chinese mining company and the DRC state mining company. (China Molybdenum bought the controlling stake in the project in 2016 from US company Freeport-McMoRan.)

With US encouragement, last year DRC President Felix Tshisekedi began accusing his predecessors of signing lopsided contracts with Chinese mining companies and is now attempting to renegotiate them. In a rare sign of DRC bipartisanship, opposition politician Adolphe Muzito who was prime minister at the time the deals were signed with China, has also come out in support of renegotiating the deals with Beijing.

The Financial Times, citing a Goldman Sachs forecast, reported in November that the US and Europe could cut their dependence on China for electric vehicle batteries by 2030 through more than $160 billion of new capital spending. It appears the West is trying to recoup lost ground and erect roadblocks in China’s supply line from Africa.

In August, China announced the forgiveness of 23 interest-free loans for 17 African nations, while also pledging to deepen its collaboration with the continent. Despite that gesture and its efforts to extend maturities, the West continues to hammer home the message that Beijing is engaged in debt-trap diplomacy with the likes of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claiming multiple times that Beijing has become the biggest obstacle to “progress” in Africa.

According to the South China Morning Post, the DRC is also under pressure from the IMF to “clean up lopsided mining agreements granted to foreign firms” (i.e., China) as a precondition for a new $1.5 billion credit line.

Washington’s involvement in the DRC stretches back decades. The uranium used to build the atomic bombs that were dropped on Japan was sourced from Congo. The US helped plan the assassination of the first democratically elected DRC Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba for trying to control the DRC’s resources and use them to improve the living conditions of the country’s people. In recent years, Washington has played a role in the ongoing conflicts in eastern DRC, which involve hundreds of militant groups.

Due to US involvement in assassinating its leaders and fomenting insurgencies in the country, relations between the US and DRC have long been frosty. That changed when Tshiskedi took office in 2019.

 

[PrincessPeaches]

G'day,

Just arrived on the scene

Curious to know if there is an app I can download to follow these forums at all?

Thanks in advance

 

[Bin59]

 

[Remark]

Well, that's interesting

 

[hedrox]

Wow....it looks like the shorters are covering their arses.

 

[j.l]

Well, that's interesting

View attachment 25464

View attachment 25465

Genuine question / apologies for my ignorance -- how do you close a short position when the stock isn't trading?

 

[JAG]

Well, that's interesting

View attachment 25464

View attachment 25465

 

[Remark]

Genuine question / apologies for my ignorance -- how do you close a short position when the stock isn't trading?

Off market transfers would be my guess

 

[The Fox]

The green Princes is still 3 or 4 places down on the RHS of Felix in the latest meeting.

RDC: Une réunion de conseil des ministres est prévue exceptionnellement ce mercredi

D’après les informations de ACTUALITE.CD, la réunion du conseil des ministres se tiendra exceptionnellement ce mercredi au lieu de vendredi.

actualite.cd

Felix needs to install some counter measures for corrupt Ministers.

 

[Charbella]

View attachment 25463

Hi Bin, keen to hear your view on this short covering.

 

[Bin59]

Hi Bin, keen to hear your view on this short covering.

Very hard to know the reasons why Charbella but I expect obvious reasons being contributing factors for the short covering ie. that the ML issue is closer to being resolved due to changes withIn the mining ministry to be made soon (this week’s face to face meeting?) together with final approval for the financing of SEZ zones.

DRC: A Council of Ministers meeting is exceptionally scheduled for Wednesday | Actualite.cd

According to information from ACTUALITE.CD, the meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held exceptionally this Wednesday instead of Friday. It will be held face-to-face and will be chaired by Félix Tshisekedi who is expected in Mbuji-Mayi on Friday. If the program prepared by his cabinet is confirmed, the Head of State will spend the last days of the year in this part of the country. A team ahead is already going there this Wednesday.

Several burning topics will be on the government's table for this last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the year.

First, there is the security issue, including the "false withdrawal" of the M23 from the Kibumba group. There is also the evaluation of the first week of the voter identification and enlistment operation and many other files.

 

[Nellie17]

Very hard to know the reasons why Charbella but we can expect the obvious reasons being a contributing factor ie. that the ML issue is closer to being resolved due to changes withIn the mining ministry to be made soon (this week’s face to face meeting?) together with final approval for the financing of SEZ zones.

DRC: A Council of Ministers meeting is exceptionally scheduled for Wednesday | Actualite.cd

According to information from ACTUALITE.CD, the meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held exceptionally this Wednesday instead of Friday. It will be held face-to-face and will be chaired by Félix Tshisekedi who is expected in Mbuji-Mayi on Friday. If the program prepared by his cabinet is confirmed, the Head of State will spend the last days of the year in this part of the country. A team ahead is already going there this Wednesday.

Several burning topics will be on the government's table for this last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the year.

First, there is the security issue, including the "false withdrawal" of the M23 from the Kibumba group. There is also the evaluation of the first week of the voter identification and enlistment operation and many other files.

Pardon me Bin,

But ffs, I hope you've got the dates incorrect? Hoping January, not July!

Cheers,
Nells

 

[Longunvest]