Carlos, enjoyed reading your post and a bit of thought went into it. However, I think Zijin have shot themselves in the foot with the Cominiere sale. They were exposed by the IGF, they went on record backing out of the sale and have a poor record of worker abuse and sticking the finger up at complying with DRC laws. Even though Cominiere were the guilty party according to IGF, not hard to see that Zijin were in it for the steal and Govt would have seen right through that. I’m sure Marius would have also had some words to say to Felix about Zijin’s true intentions.
Even if your theory came to fruition, Felix and the whole DRC Ministry would not let Zijin come within 10 feet of Manono. Would you if you found out they tried to rip your country off to the value of $120m+ plus their poor track record? Leaving the whole battery schematic and vision of the DRC Govt to a company of thieves is not in their best interests and the US would also be in their ear and pull out any potential investments and their current MOU to support the battery value chain initiative with Zambia.
All imo.
If DRC government came straight out and said right, Zijin get out of the country, Princess fired/locked up, Mupande fired/locked up, then I would agree with you that Zijin really shot themselves in the foot.
The reality is that DRC have not done this and Zijin have been robbing DRC for decades. $10 million for example is a gigantic amount of money in DRC. It is totally life changing for an individual in DRC and generations going forward of their family, but it is pocket change for Zijin. This means that Zijin really can exploit DRC by bribing a small number of key players who are motivated to sell out the country and let China steal the resources. The Chinese still have many key players on the books, which is the reason they have been able to stall the project for as long as they have.
IGF have released some findings but there is so much corruption in DRC and they are so poor, that it is difficult to get these Chinese companies out when they have so much money.
I think it is more likely that Zijin go, oh sorry about that, you can keep the $6 million deposit we paid (likely discussed at the meeting with the Princess and other meetings). They then will negotiate a higher price for the rest, whether they think they can get it for $150m or more.