Sparrowhawk12
Regular
Happy Birthday JagAnyway, happy day after Boxing Day and day before my birthdayView attachment 25405
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....
However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.
But seriously , how can that really work ?
AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.
I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............
It never happened, now here we are.
That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......
Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.
Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.
Pull your finger out FT before its too late.
2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!
View attachment 25332
imo
Ultimately I think our best chance of avoiding any potential takeover is by getting the mining licence and trading again. But the longer suspension goes on the more of an opportunity it gives Zijin or another buyer to leverage resentment towards the AVZ board into possibly taking control of the company. We have waited for far too long and been given too many missed deadlines and at some point something has to give.Nah I don't have a law background. I did a few law units at uni so I know a little bit. My theory is that if any company wants to control Manono they must now buy AVZ. It would happen the same way if it was Zijin, Rio Tinto or Tesla. The obvious difference is that if the entity that buys AVZ is based outside of Australia they will need to go through FIRB.
To succeed in acquiring AVZ any potential buyer would need to make an offer that is either acceptable to the board (which would be announced as a friendly takeover and voted on by shareholders) or bypass the board by buying up over 50% of shares (or vote with existing holders) and use a proxy vote to force an EGM to spill the board in a hostile takeover and replace them with a board supported by the majority of shareholders that want to sell. The offer would still then need to be voted on by all shareholders but those wanting to sell would obviously have the numbers.
The big question is if a potential buyer of AVZ is a Chinese company will FIRB allow it. Especially given they didn't want Yibin Tianyi having a seat on the board. The main thing FIRB were upset about was a Chinese government backed company having a vote in the ongoing operations of an ASX listed company. If Zijin hypothetically get enough shares and buy out AVZ they would take it off the ASX and make the company private (which is what Deeland are claiming they want to do).
The simplest way I see to get around FIRB would be for them to transfer AVZ International from AVZ to Zijin. Then wind up AVZ all together. That way they would be left with a parent company based in China with a subsidiary based in Singapore that holds 75% of a joint venture based in the DRC. And crucially no Chinese company having a board seat in an ongoing ASX listed company. At that point I don't see any direct concern about 'Australia's national interest' for FIRB to consider. But I could be wrong as there are other considerations like taxation and possibly strategic concerns.
Maybe I'm jumping at shadows here but if I was Zijin this is exactly what I would do and the arguments I would be using to get around FIRB. I'd also be launching a disinformation campaign about ownership and trying to get shareholders to turn on the board by initiating a class action against them. Zijin have put a noose around the projects neck and will offer frustrated shareholders a quick way out at a price everyone will be in the green for. The longer we wait to trade again the more shareholders will be tempted to sell imo
Here's a decent guide to hostile takeovers in Australia:
A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid. - Insight | MinterEllison
A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid.www.minterellison.com
It's time for Tshisekedi to show everyone who he really is
Lions gonna lion imo
US-China Struggle for DR Congo Resources Intensifies | naked capitalism
The Democratic Republic of Congo's estimated $24 trillion of untapped mineral resources is coveted by both the US and China as rivalry heats up.
As the US intensifies its efforts to cut China off from advanced semiconductors, it is also making a run at the world’s most important source of minerals used in tech: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
On Dec.13, the US signed deals with the DRC and Zambia (the world’s sixth-largest copper producer and second-largest cobalt producer in Africa) that will see the US support the two countries in developing an electric vehicle value chain. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation will explore financing and support mechanisms, and the US Agency for International Development, commerce department and Trade and Development Agency will provide technical assistance.
For more than a decade, Chinese companies have spent billions of dollars buying out U.S. and European miners in the DRC’s Cobalt belt, leading to control of 15 of 19 of the primary cobalt mines in the country.
China sources 60 percent of its cobalt needs from the DRC, and about 80 percent of the world’s cobalt processing occurs in China before being incorporated into lithium-ion batteries.The DRC-China relationship is on the rocks, however, and Chinese mining is starting to encounter an increasing amount of bumps in the road.
In July the DRC halted exports from the world’s second biggest cobalt mine amid an ongoing dispute between the Chinese mining company and the DRC state mining company. (China Molybdenum bought the controlling stake in the project in 2016 from US company Freeport-McMoRan.)
With US encouragement, last year DRC President Felix Tshisekedi began accusing his predecessors of signing lopsided contracts with Chinese mining companies and is now attempting to renegotiate them. In a rare sign of DRC bipartisanship, opposition politician Adolphe Muzito who was prime minister at the time the deals were signed with China, has also come out in support of renegotiating the deals with Beijing.
The Financial Times, citing a Goldman Sachs forecast, reported in November that the US and Europe could cut their dependence on China for electric vehicle batteries by 2030 through more than $160 billion of new capital spending. It appears the West is trying to recoup lost ground and erect roadblocks in China’s supply line from Africa.
In August, China announced the forgiveness of 23 interest-free loans for 17 African nations, while also pledging to deepen its collaboration with the continent. Despite that gesture and its efforts to extend maturities, the West continues to hammer home the message that Beijing is engaged in debt-trap diplomacy with the likes of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claiming multiple times that Beijing has become the biggest obstacle to “progress” in Africa.
According to the South China Morning Post, the DRC is also under pressure from the IMF to “clean up lopsided mining agreements granted to foreign firms” (i.e., China) as a precondition for a new $1.5 billion credit line.
Washington’s involvement in the DRC stretches back decades. The uranium used to build the atomic bombs that were dropped on Japan was sourced from Congo. The US helped plan the assassination of the first democratically elected DRC Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba for trying to control the DRC’s resources and use them to improve the living conditions of the country’s people. In recent years, Washington has played a role in the ongoing conflicts in eastern DRC, which involve hundreds of militant groups.
Due to US involvement in assassinating its leaders and fomenting insurgencies in the country, relations between the US and DRC have long been frosty. That changed when Tshiskedi took office in 2019.
PrincessPeaches
Emerged
G'day,
Just arrived on the scene
Curious to know if there is an app I can download to follow these forums at all?
Thanks in advance
Just arrived on the scene
Curious to know if there is an app I can download to follow these forums at all?
Thanks in advance
Genuine question / apologies for my ignorance -- how do you close a short position when the stock isn't trading?
JAG
Top 20
The Fox
Regular
The green Princes is still 3 or 4 places down on the RHS of Felix in the latest meeting.
actualite.cd
Felix needs to install some counter measures for corrupt Ministers.
RDC: Une réunion de conseil des ministres est prévue exceptionnellement ce mercredi
D’après les informations de ACTUALITE.CD, la réunion du conseil des ministres se tiendra exceptionnellement ce mercredi au lieu de vendredi.
Felix needs to install some counter measures for corrupt Ministers.
Hi Bin, keen to hear your view on this short covering.
Bin59
Regular
Very hard to know the reasons why Charbella but I expect obvious reasons being contributing factors for the short covering ie. that the ML issue is closer to being resolved due to changes withIn the mining ministry to be made soon (this week’s face to face meeting?) together with final approval for the financing of SEZ zones.
DRC: A Council of Ministers meeting is exceptionally scheduled for Wednesday | Actualite.cd
According to information from ACTUALITE.CD, the meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held exceptionally this Wednesday instead of Friday. It will be held face-to-face and will be chaired by Félix Tshisekedi who is expected in Mbuji-Mayi on Friday. If the program prepared by his cabinet is confirmed, the Head of State will spend the last days of the year in this part of the country. A team ahead is already going there this Wednesday.
Several burning topics will be on the government's table for this last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the year.
First, there is the security issue, including the "false withdrawal" of the M23 from the Kibumba group. There is also the evaluation of the first week of the voter identification and enlistment operation and many other files.
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Nellie17
Regular
Pardon me Bin,Very hard to know the reasons why Charbella but we can expect the obvious reasons being a contributing factor ie. that the ML issue is closer to being resolved due to changes withIn the mining ministry to be made soon (this week’s face to face meeting?) together with final approval for the financing of SEZ zones.
DRC: A Council of Ministers meeting is exceptionally scheduled for Wednesday | Actualite.cd
According to information from ACTUALITE.CD, the meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held exceptionally this Wednesday instead of Friday. It will be held face-to-face and will be chaired by Félix Tshisekedi who is expected in Mbuji-Mayi on Friday. If the program prepared by his cabinet is confirmed, the Head of State will spend the last days of the year in this part of the country. A team ahead is already going there this Wednesday.
Several burning topics will be on the government's table for this last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the year.
First, there is the security issue, including the "false withdrawal" of the M23 from the Kibumba group. There is also the evaluation of the first week of the voter identification and enlistment operation and many other files.
But ffs, I hope you've got the dates incorrect? Hoping January, not July!
Cheers,
Nells
Longunvest
Member
Hi Bin
I wonder if the driver of this shift in sentiment is simply economic pragmatism based at least partly on AVZ's decision to go to the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) to arbitrate on ownership of the Manono project. Since the ICC cases are expected to take months to prepare and finalise, shorters are reluctant to have their capital and paper profits further tied up during this lengthy process. In other words, it's not so much a vote of confidence in AVZ, but simply the need to have their capital available and continuously working for them. It's not working while tied up in a suspended stock.
Finally, there is also a very small risk that AVZ could eventually be delisted if things go pear-shaped. Although only a remote possibility, it cannot be ignored because while AVZ remains suspended the risk of delisting increases incrementally. If that happens, everyone loses, including the big trading houses that have both long and short positions in play.
Just thinking out aloud.
Cheers
F
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BRICK
Where’s Zeebot 😶🌫️
well im fucking disappointed because i just want to see them burnWow....it looks like the shorters are covering their arses.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Wow....it looks like the shorters are covering their arses.
Very hard to know the reasons why Charbella but I expect obvious reasons being contributing factors for the short covering ie. that the ML issue is closer to being resolved due to changes withIn the mining ministry to be made soon (this week’s face to face meeting?) together with final approval for the financing of SEZ zones.
DRC: A Council of Ministers meeting is exceptionally scheduled for Wednesday | Actualite.cd
According to information from ACTUALITE.CD, the meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held exceptionally this Wednesday instead of Friday. It will be held face-to-face and will be chaired by Félix Tshisekedi who is expected in Mbuji-Mayi on Friday. If the program prepared by his cabinet is confirmed, the Head of State will spend the last days of the year in this part of the country. A team ahead is already going there this Wednesday.
Several burning topics will be on the government's table for this last meeting of the Council of Ministers of the year.
First, there is the security issue, including the "false withdrawal" of the M23 from the Kibumba group. There is also the evaluation of the first week of the voter identification and enlistment operation and many other files.
Does anyone have access to the broker data?
My initial thought is this could be funds selling to themselves or each other to cover the shorts they automatically took out to hedge AVZ when it went in the ASX200. The timing of this big drop just after AVZ was removed from the ASX200 is probably not a coincidence.
More generally anyone that thinks there will be a short squeeze with only 3% or 4% of the soi shorted is dreaming imo
URGENTImminent arrest of Min @adelekayinda01 and his Dircab for confirmed hijacking for @IgfRdc of
$150M sale of State shares to COMINIERE. Sale of Camp DUMEZ of RVA Goma$10M
Misappropriation of $45M from AGEMI $70M from IMD.She was interviewed by the PG in her office for more than 5 hours, it should be noted that she admitted the facts.
A first woman in Africa who diverts public property to this height. @Presidence_RDC @ALINGETEJULES_K @KasongoKas @financesrdc @nskazadi @minportefeuille
Bin59
Regular
Finally, the sting of the #Final Assault!
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