Hi Bacon
I normally just hang the main thread but I find this interesting and have a couple of questions.
1. I imagine before the latest LDA capital call there would have been discussions between BRN and LDA. Are you intimating that when the BRN share price was 80 odd cents BRN set a floor price of 40 odd cents with LDA? I would be fairly disappointed with BRN if that was the case.
2. If BRN actually set a higher floor then the only scenario I can come up with is that the 30million shares are being used as a LDA war chest to filter into the sell crashing the SP by around 50% and that they are scooping up cheap shares that they will cash in later when BRN finally gains traction. My understanding is they will lose money if they sell shares below the floor price. Like you said they are playing both sides. The upside is that they think the BRN SP will take off.
Anyway, I’m not the smartest tool in the shed and I hope I haven’t embarrassed myself. I’m still a heavily invested, confident LTH.
Cheers.
Onward.
I really hope, that one day, we reach a stage on this forum where posters are not embarrassed to ask questions and they ask questions confidently and without fear.
Now, to answer your questions how I see things;
1) I am saying that the BRN share price was 80 odd cents 2 months ago, and it is now 44.5 cents. I do not know the floor price, neither will any of the shareholders is my belief. Reason being, last AGM in 2022 May, this question was asked to Ken, and his answer was (paraphrasing here) 'it was much higher than the current share price'.
Which means they did not want to disclose the floor price and it was confidential information between BRN and LDA.
So, no, I do not know what the floor price is, it could be 40 cents, it could be 50 or even 60 cents.
But the fact is SP is now 44.5 cents, so as Rocket said if the floor price is above and LDA isn't now selling then can we meet the CR target?
2) I do not know their strategy, but last time Doz checked the registry LDA held 9 million shares (this was a couple of weeks ago) so I don't think they are scooping up any cheap shares, because if they have been, then cheap shares would not have become cheaper shares. If an insto is buying, they do try to go under the radar and sometimes use dark pools to hide from the public, but eventually people will notice (especially those who get the data and other instos who can access this info) and they will try to join the party, but we have no evidence this is happening.
May be another big player saw the LDA deal and is now trying to take the opportunity to sell and make money.
Just like yourself, I am invested in BRN heavily too, and wants this to be a successful venture.
I do have a lot of patience, but I do get pissed off when management say things will happen ''imminently'' and ''very soon'' etc., and 12 months later we are still trying to get another signed deal.
My opinion is, if they know they have a while to go, they could simply not give false hope to investors by keeping the mouth closed. Just don't say things will happen imminently or along those lines.
PS: My target for all the duck alignment has been 2025 since I started investing in BRN, but I think after listening to a few interviews/podcasts I got the idea and was made to believe that it would happen sooner, aka imminently. I am now coming to realise that in semiconductor sector, that word probably means a couple of years.
PPS: Just to clarify, No, I am NOT shorting BRN, neither I am buying at these ''low'' prices, contrary to what a few insinuate that I have special interests, I have no other interest other than Brainchip making sales.
fintel.io
