AVZ Discussion 2022

[JNRB]

View attachment 79894

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1903177052431454348

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https://x.com/_smogdaddy/status/1903134882844512668

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Kobold are not s SPAC they don't just sit on a pile of cash looking for something to do with it.

It does however create a framework for bringing together huge amounts of investment when there is somewhere for it to go.

There are a lot of reasons America has lost out to China for resources in Africa. But if the Americans are deciding to go for something you can be sure as hell the thing they WON'T be beaten out by is investment capital.

- ICC case sets a floor for out "appropriate compensation"
- If someone can find it back, Zijin had a claim for damages that could be used prorata to estimate value of the project
- Other lithium project acquisitions set a reference value.
- CATH involvement reinforces the floor for compensation

+ compensation values are calculated based on business values. AVZ doesn't get to use 'geopolitical value' in the DFS accounting. So let's add that to the floor price.


Nothing under $10B even deserves consideration, and we know Kobold can play ball on those numbers. So let's stop throwing around all these peanut valuations.

Another way to think of it:
$10B is often less than even just the daily variability in MC for Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla etc.

------
Re 'Geopolitical risk'

For decades the 'safest' investment in the world had been US treasury bonds because they were backed by the US Federal Reserve. Recently Trump et al have made it clear that they:
1. Do NOT see a prior agreement to pay money for something as anything they need to actually honor.
2. Intend to diminish the capabilities of Federal Reserves.

There is however 1 thing that's EVEN SAFER than in investment backed by the US Federal Reserve, and that's an investment backed by the US MILITARY.

How that factors in for us, Felix et al, I dont know. But even the threat of direct US military involvement to protect their resource interests is enough to make people reconsider their actions.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Apparently you can paste the link into ChatGPT and it will work there.

I’ve never tried it, so if anyone else does or has, let us know!!

Thanks

 

[BEISHA]

"The tale of AVZ"...... (Part 6)

Meanwhile in his secret,cold, heartless and completely fucking bland concrete bunker on a roundabout in Trigg a shadowy figure continued to plot the 1000 year rise of MMGA

however!!!..........

finding a massive shit in the bunker pool the shadowy figure moved……whereabouts currently unclear....

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With the all important AGM looming AVZ management prepared a comprehensive explanatory document and provided it to all shareholders entitled….......

Meanwhile, back in country, clearly helpful elves grouped at the Mpiana Mwanga hydro facility....

Almost incredibly they kindly began rehabilitation work on the dam on behalf of AVZ and the good people of the DRC!

the progress of the works is currently unknown however at least 4 claimants are taking the elves to court on the basis it’s not Christmas and therefore clearly...... not their job


which came as some surprise to the elves.....

So now another year has passed my friends......and the 2023 AGM is looming large


We sincerely hope that you’ve enjoyed.......... "The tale of AVZ"

and don't forget..... ????

get ready!!!!

‘cause……..

it's not long now ......

and..................

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The end.....

of the beginning.......

 

[hedrox]

Battery storage could power the next lithium boom​

• Singapore-based Arcane Capital sees a lithium rebound as soon as Q4 2025
• Recovery could be driven by low battery prices and BESS market growth
• Companies like AZL, FBM, GT1 and CC9 could be poised to benefit

A lot of lithium players abandoned the sector through the price downturn, but a few are standing stoic and strong, timing the development of their projects for a rebound.

Green Technology Metals is one of those companies, confident of a recovery by the time they get the Seymour project in Canada into production in 2027 – when Fastmarkets expect 5.5% spodumene concentrate to be trading at around US$1146/t.

For comparison, investment bank RBC thinks spodumene prices will rise to US$1125/t on a 6% Li2O basis in 2026.

But Arcane Capital Advisors director and co-fund manager YueJer (YJ) Lee thinks it could rebound even sooner, and said he is among the (very) short list of people that think the lithium market will turn around as early as Q4 2025.

“Low battery prices are driving down EV prices and that WILL have an effect on EV penetration rates,” he said.

Battery energy storage systems growing exponentially ​

That’s just the first tipping point, the second is the growth of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), Lee said.

“This is growing exponentially, far faster than companies and analysts realise,” he said.

“Last year’s BESS market was 160GWh (not including behind-the-meter of another 45GWh), and I expect this year the BESS market to be in the 300GWh range (plus another 80GWh BTM).

“Many forecasters are still calculating 200GWh in the whole storage market.

“The difference here is equal to, or greater than, their entire lithium oversupply.”

He’s not alone in that opinion. Liontown Resources Tony Ottaviano sees energy storage systems as the next big growth area for lithium demand.

“The one that I want to draw out is energy storage systems. If we look at this and seeing … the growth we’ve experienced over the last 12 months and what is being projected, we see this as a tremendous growth engine for demand of lithium units,” he said in the company’s earnings call last week.

“Just to give you a bit of colour, I don’t know how many people have seen the recent CATL prospectus, but they are projecting a significant increase in battery shipments for stationary batteries.

“And if they are accurate in their forecast by the end of the decade, they believe that market will be as big as in terms of lithium carbon equivalents to the EV market today.

“That’s how strong they believe this market will grow.”

Lee says there’s one more element to the recovery scenario, that every other large demand source is not well-covered.

“Each e-bus is 300kWh, each truck 600-800kWh,” he said.

“Even ships and ferries are going electric now (LV Shui 01 has a 50MWh battery!).

“With everything electrifying at a faster rate than before, driven by exceptionally low prices of batteries, I see a positive demand shock that should make lithium investors very happy.”

“This year we will see EVs becoming cheaper than their ICE counterparts in many markets.

“Drivers get lower upfront costs, lower maintenance over the vehicle lifetime, and nearly cost-free driving (and if paired with solar/batteries in the house, literally cost-free.)”

View attachment 79926

View attachment 79925

This is a daily chart..........still fucked

I wonder what AVZ price would be if still listed on the ASX with the lithium sector tanked and the knowledge that DRC is the most corrupt planet on earth ?

The irony is AVZ is the best performing stock within the lithium sector with a chance to get a 300+ % premium with a buy out.

Show me the money Trump !

View attachment 79927 fere

( my new bestie lol )

I am very curious about our 2 very different charts....

View attachment 79925

This is a daily chart..........still fucked

I wonder what AVZ price would be if still listed on the ASX with the lithium sector tanked and the knowledge that DRC is the most corrupt planet on earth ?

The irony is AVZ is the best performing stock within the lithium sector with a chance to get a 300+ % premium with a buy out.

Show me the money Trump !

View attachment 79927

( my new bestie lol )

A bit curious about our 2 charts Beisha...checked again and it looks very different on my weekly chart....
anyhow...may be one is a Chinese chart and one is an American chart....lol

 

[Largus Averta]

USA
China
USA
China

*Me start praying*...
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war.

 

[BEISHA]

Looks like I'll be seeing you all soon at the Storey Bridge! xxx

 

[BEISHA]

I am very curious about our 2 very different charts....

A bit curious about our 2 charts Beisha...checked again and it looks very different on my weekly chart....
anyhow...may be one is a Chinese chart and one is an American chart....lol View attachment 79930

To be honest mate, there are so many lithium charts out there, which one is bona fide ?

All i know is PLS, LTR, AGY, MIN, CXO, SYA etc aint getting any love right now.....just been smashed, hence why i say the silver lining in AVZ loooooong suspension is they have been shielded from the destruction.

 

[ptlas]

Things appear to, and imho are, moving apace in a positive direction.
Don't wanna be a killjoy, but we need to remember a few things, not all bad.
In no particular order:

All of what you are reading are stories. Remember the AFR - every publication / author has an agenda.

Smoke & mirrors from the players - tell the opposition anything but the truth. Better still, tell them nothing. The numbers thrown around are part of this.
Maybe we don't even know who all of the players are or who the alliances are.

Surprisingly, and I know that it will be a shock to most here, publications and players sometimes collude to spread disinformation.
They really do. Tom told me.

None of these stories are talking of a deal(s) having been done. The art of negotiation is to do negotiate in private (unless you're the world's greatest negotiator).
This is jockeying for position / influence / priority.
It is almost certainly good for AVZ if an auction is brewing, but this may well delay our potential $$ compared with a quick sale.

None of the mentioned big players / billionaires got to that position by being generous in negotiation or deal making. They are all undoubtedly ruthless SoB (or daughters lol). They'll pay the lowest price that they can get away with.

USA has been playing catch-up for a few years now, but they HAVE been catching up. The Lobito corridor was evidence of that and is something that appears to be being overlooked. The logistics of export are no longer being discussed.

Grumpy Trumpy, Vladi's gimp. Mr unpredictable, the only predictable trait is that he will act out of self-interest. In this case, that is USA.
Consequently, we can hope that he will favour AVZ. My guess is that he will - in so far as AVZ retains as much interest / lithium licence as possible.
I foresee a potential problem though, where Trump demands AVZ repay him / US / his mates in some way for services rendered or to be rendered in a similar manner to what he pulled with Zelensky, but maybe in a private setting.
It's guaranteed that he will do NO favours for AVZ unless it benefits his / US interests or he is repaid in some way.

The world seems to have woken up to the impending explosion ( pun intended ) of battery storage that could well cause a large increase of the Li price. AVZ would undoubtedly include this in negotiations and it would be big in everyone else's head.

AVZ still does not have a mining licence. Nor is one 100% guaranteed.

These are just a few issues that sprang to the front of my mind. There are many others, but essentially it is a rapidly moving dynamic situation.
As always with AVZ, expect the unexpected.

It may well be rapidly resolved, but with court cases, geopolitical rivalries, massive egos, zillions of dollars and multiple players, I don't expect that it will be.
Just look at Ukraine where, apparently, Zelensky doesn't hold any cards, but has not signed a minerals deal.

 

[BEISHA]

USA
China
USA
China

*Me start praying*...
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war.

i dont mind a bidding war, just as long as uncle sam wins..........FUCK CHYNA !

 

[PhatCatz]

Will AVZ shareholders get a chance to vote on any proposal? We have a large proportion held by Chinese interests…. Just trying to think how that will go down. Could they have enough say to hijack any proposals from Western interests?

 

[Retrobyte]

Indeed - all this talk of Zijin getting the north because they are entrenched is absolutely sickening. Zijin gone, out, f#ck off you're trespassing. Corruption should not be rewarded with a world class asset?

Too much mica

 

[whales]

Maybe an opportunity to get Bloomberg to look more closely at the AVZ Minerals Story and Cominiere’s Corruption

THE AVZ MINERALS STORY

Since 2017 in the DRC, AVZ Minerals has spent over $140 million on Acquiring Equipment for Infrastructure, Soil Sampling, Field Mapping, Consulting, Drilling, Metallurgical Testing, Completing a FEED Study, Environmental Study and Impact Assessment Reports including Groundwater Management, a 160...

thestockexchange.com.au

Cominiere’s Corruption

Cominiere’s Corruption Investors, mining companies, battery maker’s and EV manufacturer’s around the world know the story of AVZ Minerals and how DRC state miner Cominiere seized the Manono lithium project from Dathcom and sold it to Chinese Zijin Mining Follow the links below to see 1. The...

thestockexchange.com.au

I posted AVZ’s story to Bloomberg. Will let you know if they respond via email


View attachment 79915

KoBold said that to advance the plan AVZ would need to receive “appropriate compensation” and agree to transfer all its interests in Congo. Once all disputes are resolved, Zijin would keep the northern section of the deposit, and the US company would develop the southern portion

That implies if ZIJIN pay appropriate compensation to AVZ as legally we own the North and South, then and only then once AVZ transfer all of its interests in Congo to Kobold ... can it allow and approve of Zijin keeping the North.

It is totally inappropriate to award Zijin the right to the North as compensation to develop only Roche Dure,
AVZ went into this dispute originally because DRC illegally carved up the tenement.

 

[Spikerama]

Ok I got this looking and functioning a bit better now and it works ok on Mobile too. I still need to work on the scrolling story (placeholders only on mobile) but at least we have this.

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

If anyone wants to PM me a screenshot of what it looks like on theirs please do I'd love to see in order to address any major issues. As it even changes for me on the various laptops and PC's I have around the house. Thanks.

 

[Charbella]

Here are my thoughts on the takeover offer by Kobold. As a long-term shareholder since December 2016, I've experienced the ups and downs alongside the company—riding the high to 36c, watching it drop to 4c, and then seeing it rise again to 1.36c. Throughout all these fluctuations, we’ve remained steadfast in our belief in the potential of renewable energy and its ability to help shape a better future for the world.

That said, I cannot accept anything less than $3.50 per share in this deal. I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north. To my understanding, the situation is still pending with both ICC and ICDIS. As far as I’m concerned, the north is not theirs to offer, as it hasn’t been fully settled yet. If Zijin intends to retain control over the north, they must pay a fair and equitable price for it—nothing less. The value of these assets should be fully recognised, and we, as shareholders, deserve fair compensation in exchange for giving up our stake.

We find ourselves in an incredibly strong position, with only 70 days remaining until the ICDIS. This is a critical point in time, especially given the strategic nature of the mineral resources we control. Given the high demand for such minerals, and the central role they will play in the future of renewable energy, it’s perplexing and concerning to see any move toward undervaluing these assets.

With the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) positioning itself to attract more Western investment, it seems counterproductive—if not outright misguided—that we would be considering selling ourselves cheaply. The global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, and the minerals we possess are crucial to this transformation. Why, then, would we let such a valuable resource sit idle or be handed away at a bargain price?

Nigel, as the decision-maker, is sitting with a winning hand of cards. Our position is strong, and our resource is of the highest quality. The strategic importance of this mineral to the future of renewable energy cannot be overstated. The world’s increasing demand for these minerals, combined with the DRC’s focus on attracting Western investors, puts us in a position of power. We have the leverage to negotiate a deal that reflects the true value of these assets.

If anything, we are where we are today precisely because of the exceptional quality of our resource, and it’s this value that should guide any discussions about its future. Selling ourselves short now would be a missed opportunity, one that could have far-reaching consequences for shareholders, for the company, and for the role we can play in driving the renewable energy revolution. We must stand firm and demand a fair price that reflects both the strategic importance of what we hold and the substantial value that is yet to be realised.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

As I’ve said before, we shouldn’t accept anything less than $3.50 per share. This is not a time to settle for less, especially when our resource is so critical to the future of renewable energy. We are in a prime position, with major players like Kobold showing interest, and we must ensure that the price we accept reflects the true worth of our company and its assets. We’ve endured the highs and lows of the market, and now is the time for us to capitalise on the long-term potential of our investment. Anything less than $3.50 per share would be an undervaluation of what we have built and the opportunities that lie ahead.

It’s also important to recognise the emotional toll this journey has taken on many shareholders. Many of us have suffered significant mental and emotional strain, and even relationship challenges, due to the uncertainty and volatility of our investments. However, we have carried on because we truly believed that, in the end, there would be justice—that our patience and dedication would be rewarded.

If Zijin manages to acquire the north without paying a fair price for it, then it would be a clear violation of that sense of justice. It would send a message that shareholders, who have endured so much over the years, are not valued or respected. For those of us who have stuck with this company through thick and thin, this is not just about financial compensation—it’s about fairness. If we allow Zijin to take control of such a valuable asset without proper payment, it undermines the very principles of equity and fairness that we believed would guide this process. $3.5 and nothing less!

Anyone who believes we should accept the current offer or risk walking away with $0 is kidding themselves. The situation is far more complex, and there’s too much at stake. The DRC cannot afford to let this resource sit idle—it’s far too valuable. No reputable company would consider investing in this resource without the proper fines being paid and the outstanding issues with ICC and ICDIS being resolved first.

The DRC’s ability to attract Western investment hinges on addressing these concerns, and no serious player would move forward without that clarity and resolution. We are in a strong position, and it's crucial that we demand a fair price. The risks of accepting a lowball offer far outweigh any potential short-term gain, and we cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away for anything less than its true worth. This is the moment for us to secure a fair deal that reflects the strategic value of our holdings and the long-term potential they offer.

 

[Dave Evans]

This is what it looks like on my iPhone @Spikerama

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

 

[Frank]

I would gladly lose my investment if I could see that piece of shit Celestin Kibeya & his pillow biting sidekick Alain Monga drawn and quartered.

Wait, did I go too far

Not far enough Bro - Please try harder next time

https://x.com/anonymous_seeu/status/1903390954062840213

https://x.com/TB32TB32/status/1903061098443534732

 

[wombat74]

Things appear to, and imho are, moving apace in a positive direction.
Don't wanna be a killjoy, but we need to remember a few things, not all bad.
In no particular order:

All of what you are reading are stories. Remember the AFR - every publication / author has an agenda.

Smoke & mirrors from the players - tell the opposition anything but the truth. Better still, tell them nothing. The numbers thrown around are part of this.
Maybe we don't even know who all of the players are or who the alliances are.

Surprisingly, and I know that it will be a shock to most here, publications and players sometimes collude to spread disinformation.
They really do. Tom told me.

None of these stories are talking of a deal(s) having been done. The art of negotiation is to do negotiate in private (unless you're the world's greatest negotiator).
This is jockeying for position / influence / priority.
It is almost certainly good for AVZ if an auction is brewing, but this may well delay our potential $$ compared with a quick sale.

None of the mentioned big players / billionaires got to that position by being generous in negotiation or deal making. They are all undoubtedly ruthless SoB (or daughters lol). They'll pay the lowest price that they can get away with.

USA has been playing catch-up for a few years now, but they HAVE been catching up. The Lobito corridor was evidence of that and is something that appears to be being overlooked. The logistics of export are no longer being discussed.

Grumpy Trumpy, Vladi's gimp. Mr unpredictable, the only predictable trait is that he will act out of self-interest. In this case, that is USA.
Consequently, we can hope that he will favour AVZ. My guess is that he will - in so far as AVZ retains as much interest / lithium licence as possible.
I foresee a potential problem though, where Trump demands AVZ repay him / US / his mates in some way for services rendered or to be rendered in a similar manner to what he pulled with Zelensky, but maybe in a private setting.
It's guaranteed that he will do NO favours for AVZ unless it benefits his / US interests or he is repaid in some way.

The world seems to have woken up to the impending explosion ( pun intended ) of battery storage that could well cause a large increase of the Li price. AVZ would undoubtedly include this in negotiations and it would be big in everyone else's head.

AVZ still does not have a mining licence. Nor is one 100% guaranteed.

These are just a few issues that sprang to the front of my mind. There are many others, but essentially it is a rapidly moving dynamic situation.
As always with AVZ, expect the unexpected.

It may well be rapidly resolved, but with court cases, geopolitical rivalries, massive egos, zillions of dollars and multiple players, I don't expect that it will be.
Just look at Ukraine where, apparently, Zelensky doesn't hold any cards, but has not signed a minerals deal.

Not sure Felix is in a position to play silly buggers . His country is being f--k over by rebels and his pathetic reputation is being f--ked over by trying to f--k over AVZ . As Trump would point out ,Felix doesn't hold any cards . The obvious part of the deal that has given this the go ahead is Zijin keep the North . Which one could argue has been their plan all along in the event AVZ secured funding for ICSID .

 

[JAG]

Ok I got this looking and functioning a bit better now and it works ok on Mobile too. I still need to work on the scrolling story (placeholders only on mobile) but at least we have this.

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

If anyone wants to PM me a screenshot of what it looks like on theirs please do I'd love to see in order to address any major issues. As it even changes for me on the various laptops and PC's I have around the house. Thanks.

View attachment 79935

 

[Frank]

View attachment 79925

This is a daily chart..........still fucked

I wonder what AVZ price would be if still listed on the ASX with the lithium sector tanked and the knowledge that DRC is the most corrupt planet on earth ?

The irony is AVZ is the best performing stock within the lithium sector with a chance to get a 300+ % premium with a buy out.

Show me the money Trump !


( my new bestie lol )

https://x.com/EVCurveFuturist/status/1903269256705483152

https://x.com/ShireofShires/status/1903325864152142236

 

[Spikerama]

This is what it looks like on my iPhone @Spikerama

View attachment 79943

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

Thanks M8

By the way, I look around the room and I see a lot of people quoting numbers. Yesterday we had $1.00 then $2.00. Some say it's $12 or go home. And now we have $3.50 being floated.

My personal opinion is that we shouldn't be quoting numbers. Just let the BOD get the best deal for us because they know the full story. Nige knows his geo, and I reckon he knows a few little secrets too but I would urge against settling on a dollar figure because how do we know what those who are vying for it are quoting? Say it's $5 dollars but shareholder consensus has already settled on $3.50. Or Say they are offering $14 but we've all said $12. We just don't know what is being thrown around and what little sweeteners or hard ball games are being chucked into the mix

I get it, it's fun to speculate but even quoting what we think is a highball figure, we could be low balling ourselves.

I reckon just leave it to the pros and don't show our collective hand in the meantime.