AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Interesting what Frank Famba recons...
If the DRC will follow their mining code and AVZ wins all the international arbitration....The North will go back to AVZ and Zijin or the DRC have to compensate AVZ respectfully...I would think that Nigel would stay strong about the north..
Indeed - all this talk of Zijin getting the north because they are entrenched is absolutely sickening. Zijin gone, out, f#ck off you're trespassing. Corruption should not be rewarded with a world class asset?
Stockinvesting
Regular
Cheers. Still wouldn't come up.
Thanks anyway
Funny.... since Felix and Donald start communicating about Lithium...the price went up...coincidence..May be the Chinese realise they can't keep the price of Lithium for ever down...so many games
The last 7 day lithium chart....
View attachment 79823
And a whooping 7.22 % increase today only...interesting times indeed.
An sharp increasing Lithium price could be a nice Bonus on the negotiation table...let's see
View attachment 79825
My chart doesnt share your thesis........that being said, i do believe lithium has found the bottom....
Your chart is a yearly chart....the chart I posted was a weekly chart..View attachment 79924
My chart doesnt share your thesis........that being said, i do believe lithium has found the bottom....
Apparently you can paste the link into ChatGPT and it will work there.
I’ve never tried it, so if anyone else does or has, let us know!!
Bray
Regular
This. Fuck the dogs, kick em out
This is a daily chart..........still fucked
I wonder what AVZ price would be if still listed on the ASX with the lithium sector tanked and the knowledge that DRC is the most corrupt planet on earth ?
The irony is AVZ is the best performing stock within the lithium sector with a chance to get a 300+ % premium with a buy out.
Show me the money Trump !
( my new bestie lol )
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Frank
Top 20
View attachment 79924
My chart doesnt share your thesis........that being said, i do believe lithium has found the bottom....
Battery storage could power the next lithium boom
- Singapore-based Arcane Capital sees a lithium rebound as soon as Q4 2025
- Recovery could be driven by low battery prices and BESS market growth
- Companies like AZL, FBM, GT1 and CC9 could be poised to benefit
Green Technology Metals is one of those companies, confident of a recovery by the time they get the Seymour project in Canada into production in 2027 – when Fastmarkets expect 5.5% spodumene concentrate to be trading at around US$1146/t.
For comparison, investment bank RBC thinks spodumene prices will rise to US$1125/t on a 6% Li2O basis in 2026.
But Arcane Capital Advisors director and co-fund manager YueJer (YJ) Lee thinks it could rebound even sooner, and said he is among the (very) short list of people that think the lithium market will turn around as early as Q4 2025.
“Low battery prices are driving down EV prices and that WILL have an effect on EV penetration rates,” he said.
Battery energy storage systems growing exponentially
That’s just the first tipping point, the second is the growth of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), Lee said.“This is growing exponentially, far faster than companies and analysts realise,” he said.
“Last year’s BESS market was 160GWh (not including behind-the-meter of another 45GWh), and I expect this year the BESS market to be in the 300GWh range (plus another 80GWh BTM).
“Many forecasters are still calculating 200GWh in the whole storage market.
“The difference here is equal to, or greater than, their entire lithium oversupply.”
He’s not alone in that opinion. Liontown Resources Tony Ottaviano sees energy storage systems as the next big growth area for lithium demand.
“The one that I want to draw out is energy storage systems. If we look at this and seeing … the growth we’ve experienced over the last 12 months and what is being projected, we see this as a tremendous growth engine for demand of lithium units,” he said in the company’s earnings call last week.
“Just to give you a bit of colour, I don’t know how many people have seen the recent CATL prospectus, but they are projecting a significant increase in battery shipments for stationary batteries.
“And if they are accurate in their forecast by the end of the decade, they believe that market will be as big as in terms of lithium carbon equivalents to the EV market today.
“That’s how strong they believe this market will grow.”
Lee says there’s one more element to the recovery scenario, that every other large demand source is not well-covered.
“Each e-bus is 300kWh, each truck 600-800kWh,” he said.
“Even ships and ferries are going electric now (LV Shui 01 has a 50MWh battery!).
“With everything electrifying at a faster rate than before, driven by exceptionally low prices of batteries, I see a positive demand shock that should make lithium investors very happy.”
“This year we will see EVs becoming cheaper than their ICE counterparts in many markets.
“Drivers get lower upfront costs, lower maintenance over the vehicle lifetime, and nearly cost-free driving (and if paired with solar/batteries in the house, literally cost-free.)”
Kobold are not s SPAC they don't just sit on a pile of cash looking for something to do with it.
It does however create a framework for bringing together huge amounts of investment when there is somewhere for it to go.
There are a lot of reasons America has lost out to China for resources in Africa. But if the Americans are deciding to go for something you can be sure as hell the thing they WON'T be beaten out by is investment capital.
- ICC case sets a floor for out "appropriate compensation"
- If someone can find it back, Zijin had a claim for damages that could be used prorata to estimate value of the project
- Other lithium project acquisitions set a reference value.
- CATH involvement reinforces the floor for compensation
+ compensation values are calculated based on business values. AVZ doesn't get to use 'geopolitical value' in the DFS accounting. So let's add that to the floor price.
Nothing under $10B even deserves consideration, and we know Kobold can play ball on those numbers. So let's stop throwing around all these peanut valuations.
Another way to think of it:
$10B is often less than even just the daily variability in MC for Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla etc.
------
Re 'Geopolitical risk'
For decades the 'safest' investment in the world had been US treasury bonds because they were backed by the US Federal Reserve. Recently Trump et al have made it clear that they:
1. Do NOT see a prior agreement to pay money for something as anything they need to actually honor.
2. Intend to diminish the capabilities of Federal Reserves.
There is however 1 thing that's EVEN SAFER than in investment backed by the US Federal Reserve, and that's an investment backed by the US MILITARY.
How that factors in for us, Felix et al, I dont know. But even the threat of direct US military involvement to protect their resource interests is enough to make people reconsider their actions.
Stockinvesting
Regular
Thanks
"The tale of AVZ"...... (Part 6)
Meanwhile in his secret,cold, heartless and completely fucking bland concrete bunker on a roundabout in Trigg a shadowy figure continued to plot the 1000 year rise of MMGA
however!!!..........
finding a massive shit in the bunker pool the shadowy figure moved……whereabouts currently unclear....
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With the all important AGM looming AVZ management prepared a comprehensive explanatory document and provided it to all shareholders entitled….......
Meanwhile, back in country, clearly helpful elves grouped at the Mpiana Mwanga hydro facility....
Almost incredibly they kindly began rehabilitation work on the dam on behalf of AVZ and the good people of the DRC!
the progress of the works is currently unknown however at least 4 claimants are taking the elves to court on the basis it’s not Christmas and therefore clearly...... not their job
which came as some surprise to the elves.....
So now another year has passed my friends......and the 2023 AGM is looming large
We sincerely hope that you’ve enjoyed.......... "The tale of AVZ"
and don't forget.....????
get ready!!!!
‘cause……..
it's not long now ......
and..................
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The end.....
of the beginning.......
I am very curious about our 2 very different charts....
A bit curious about our 2 charts Beisha...checked again and it looks very different on my weekly chart....
anyhow...may be one is a Chinese chart and one is an American chart....lol
Largus Averta
Regular
USA
China
USA
China
*Me start praying*...
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war.
China
USA
China
*Me start praying*...
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war
Please be a bidding war.
To be honest mate, there are so many lithium charts out there, which one is bona fide ?
All i know is PLS, LTR, AGY, MIN, CXO, SYA etc aint getting any love right now.....just been smashed, hence why i say the silver lining in AVZ loooooong suspension is they have been shielded from the destruction.
Things appear to, and imho are, moving apace in a positive direction.
Don't wanna be a killjoy, but we need to remember a few things, not all bad.
In no particular order:
All of what you are reading are stories. Remember the AFR - every publication / author has an agenda.
Smoke & mirrors from the players - tell the opposition anything but the truth. Better still, tell them nothing. The numbers thrown around are part of this.
Maybe we don't even know who all of the players are or who the alliances are.
Surprisingly, and I know that it will be a shock to most here, publications and players sometimes collude to spread disinformation.
They really do. Tom told me.
None of these stories are talking of a deal(s) having been done. The art of negotiation is to do negotiate in private (unless you're the world's greatest negotiator).
This is jockeying for position / influence / priority.
It is almost certainly good for AVZ if an auction is brewing, but this may well delay our potential $$ compared with a quick sale.
None of the mentioned big players / billionaires got to that position by being generous in negotiation or deal making. They are all undoubtedly ruthless SoB (or daughters lol). They'll pay the lowest price that they can get away with.
USA has been playing catch-up for a few years now, but they HAVE been catching up. The Lobito corridor was evidence of that and is something that appears to be being overlooked. The logistics of export are no longer being discussed.
Grumpy Trumpy, Vladi's gimp. Mr unpredictable, the only predictable trait is that he will act out of self-interest. In this case, that is USA.
Consequently, we can hope that he will favour AVZ. My guess is that he will - in so far as AVZ retains as much interest / lithium licence as possible.
I foresee a potential problem though, where Trump demands AVZ repay him / US / his mates in some way for services rendered or to be rendered in a similar manner to what he pulled with Zelensky, but maybe in a private setting.
It's guaranteed that he will do NO favours for AVZ unless it benefits his / US interests or he is repaid in some way.
The world seems to have woken up to the impending explosion ( pun intended ) of battery storage that could well cause a large increase of the Li price. AVZ would undoubtedly include this in negotiations and it would be big in everyone else's head.
AVZ still does not have a mining licence. Nor is one 100% guaranteed.
These are just a few issues that sprang to the front of my mind. There are many others, but essentially it is a rapidly moving dynamic situation.
As always with AVZ, expect the unexpected.
It may well be rapidly resolved, but with court cases, geopolitical rivalries, massive egos, zillions of dollars and multiple players, I don't expect that it will be.
Just look at Ukraine where, apparently, Zelensky doesn't hold any cards, but has not signed a minerals deal.
Don't wanna be a killjoy, but we need to remember a few things, not all bad.
In no particular order:
All of what you are reading are stories. Remember the AFR - every publication / author has an agenda.
Smoke & mirrors from the players - tell the opposition anything but the truth. Better still, tell them nothing. The numbers thrown around are part of this.
Maybe we don't even know who all of the players are or who the alliances are.
Surprisingly, and I know that it will be a shock to most here, publications and players sometimes collude to spread disinformation.
They really do. Tom told me.
None of these stories are talking of a deal(s) having been done. The art of negotiation is to do negotiate in private (unless you're the world's greatest negotiator).
This is jockeying for position / influence / priority.
It is almost certainly good for AVZ if an auction is brewing, but this may well delay our potential $$ compared with a quick sale.
None of the mentioned big players / billionaires got to that position by being generous in negotiation or deal making. They are all undoubtedly ruthless SoB (or daughters lol). They'll pay the lowest price that they can get away with.
USA has been playing catch-up for a few years now, but they HAVE been catching up. The Lobito corridor was evidence of that and is something that appears to be being overlooked. The logistics of export are no longer being discussed.
Grumpy Trumpy, Vladi's gimp. Mr unpredictable, the only predictable trait is that he will act out of self-interest. In this case, that is USA.
Consequently, we can hope that he will favour AVZ. My guess is that he will - in so far as AVZ retains as much interest / lithium licence as possible.
I foresee a potential problem though, where Trump demands AVZ repay him / US / his mates in some way for services rendered or to be rendered in a similar manner to what he pulled with Zelensky, but maybe in a private setting.
It's guaranteed that he will do NO favours for AVZ unless it benefits his / US interests or he is repaid in some way.
The world seems to have woken up to the impending explosion ( pun intended ) of battery storage that could well cause a large increase of the Li price. AVZ would undoubtedly include this in negotiations and it would be big in everyone else's head.
AVZ still does not have a mining licence. Nor is one 100% guaranteed.
These are just a few issues that sprang to the front of my mind. There are many others, but essentially it is a rapidly moving dynamic situation.
As always with AVZ, expect the unexpected.
It may well be rapidly resolved, but with court cases, geopolitical rivalries, massive egos, zillions of dollars and multiple players, I don't expect that it will be.
Just look at Ukraine where, apparently, Zelensky doesn't hold any cards, but has not signed a minerals deal.
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