AVZ Discussion 2022

[pow4ade]

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I wonder if the orange buffoon can exploit this situation to get western access to the DRC's new age minerals, and in the process freeze out China and support AVZ in its fight for survival.

Trump may be a crass narcissist with few redeeming qualities, but he's still way ahead of King Felix-the-corrupt in terms of negotiating skills and resources he can bring to the table. I'm also sure his Nazi mate will be right in his ear about the value of Manono.

Cheers
F

PS. Thinking about all our QLD members.

The way Trump foresees the Ukraine deal is that US mining activity in contested areas offers a natural deterrent against future attacks and incursions from Russia.

Optimistic for sure and only possible with Russia's imprimatur via a peace deal. Yet he claims Putin never broke a ceasefire with him so fair enough, we'll see.

For a comparable deal in the DRC to proceed Trump would need to curb Rwanda's involvement and ambitions in the east. Which he could probably achieve given existing EU, UK and US involvement/influence in Rwanda.

Yet aside from sorting security issues, attracting private investors into volatile jurisdictions is the other big challenge:

As additional countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, seek a similar deal, understanding the terms of the Ukraine deal and its likely efficacy has important implications for U.S. mineral security.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-us-ukraine-minerals-deal

 

[cruiser51]

 

[Mute22]

I'm in two minds of what might be happening. Perhaps Felix is as coy as he is greedy, which you would have to be to climb to the top of the crab bucket.

What if he had been withholding intervening in the Manono file until he could use it as leverage in a negotiation for Western aid, in this case from the US against M23. It would be part of the broader 'Critical Minerals' offer that they allow US/Western involvement in the mine. Perhaps Nigel is looking for a US buyer to get out of dodge to align with this.

Alternatively, and probably just as likely, the corrupt have been told that AVZ was just going to be bleed out / go away and that obviously hasn't happened. So now they are burying their head in the sand and we will be going to the courts. I believe we will win, but they have plenty of time to arrange their plans to escape the country, or shift the blame elsewhere and keep the local public in the dark.

We have heard multiple times from journalists and those who have worked in the DRC, that the bravado is just as high as the corruption for these types of officials. They may genuinely believe, or have been told by Zijin they can slip by in the courts - or just don't care about the outcome because it will be the country that suffers further and not them personally.

 

[wombat74]

I'm in two minds of what might be happening. Perhaps Felix is as coy as he is greedy, which you would have to be to climb to the top of the crab bucket.

What if he had been withholding intervening in the Manono file until he could use it as leverage in a negotiation for Western aid, in this case from the US against M23. It would be part of the broader 'Critical Minerals' offer that they allow US/Western involvement in the mine. Perhaps Nigel is looking for a US buyer to get out of dodge to align with this.

Alternatively, and probably just as likely, the corrupt have been told that AVZ was just going to be bleed out / go away and that obviously hasn't happened. So now they are burying their head in the sand and we will be going to the courts. I believe we will win, but they have plenty of time to arrange their plans to escape the country, or shift the blame elsewhere and keep the local public in the dark.

We have heard multiple times from journalists and those who have worked in the DRC, that the bravado is just as high as the corruption for these types of officials. They may genuinely believe, or have been told by Zijin they can slip by in the courts - or just don't care about the outcome because it will be the country that suffers further and not them personally.

Felix doesn't control Manono .Unfortunately China does . My guess is China want the USA to clean up Felix's mess , because they don't want to do it themselves . Any mineral deals done with the US will need approval from Beijing . Roche Dure is definitely not part of it . I'm looking forward to our collaboration with Cath getting over the line prior to the ICSID hearing taking place . IMO

 

[Frank]

Towards the creation of a Special Financial Court to fight against economic crimes

As part of the reform of the judicial architecture in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a Special Financial Court is being designed.

This new judicial body will have the main mission of suppressing economic and financial crimes, fighting corruption and ensuring transparency in public procurement.

During a working session on Monday, March 3, legal experts from the Ministry of Justice discussed with legislators and constitutional experts the legal options to be taken for the establishment of this specialized jurisdiction.

Jacques Ndjoli, rapporteur of the National Assembly, stressed the importance of adopting a legislative text in accordance with the Constitution to guarantee the effectiveness of this court.

With a view to the parliamentary session starting on March 15, Jacques Ndjoli insisted on the fact that this reform must be treated as a priority within Parliament.

This is a key step in the rebuilding of the State, in response to the commitments made during the Estates General of Justice.

The establishment of a Special Financial Court reflects the Congolese government's desire to strengthen the fight against impunity in the management of public finances.

This court will accelerate the prosecution of perpetrators of embezzlement of public funds and corruption, while encouraging more transparent and responsible management of State resources.

With this initiative, the DRC is committed to modernizing its judicial system and strengthening the rule of law, with a particular emphasis on the fight against financial crime.

mediacongo

*Here is a good place to start !!!

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1897392363976507548

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1897467322966618548

https://x.com/TDITDistaken/status/1897244571098304913

 

[wombat74]

Hey Nells you seem to have the giggles a lot these days . Spill the beans . What's so funny ?

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/GualNova/status/1897030163743064470

 

[Mute22]

Do we know the actual dates for this shit show yet? https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/23/20

Now we have cross 1000 days, I need a new countdown to stop me going bonkers.

 

[marksmann007]

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1897578547033596341

https://x.com/OkendaPierre/status/1897351991984078989

 

[pow4ade]

Felix doesn't control Manono .Unfortunately China does . My guess is China want the USA to clean up Felix's mess , because they don't want to do it themselves . Any mineral deals done with the US will need approval from Beijing . Roche Dure is definitely not part of it . I'm looking forward to our collaboration with Cath getting over the line prior to the ICSID hearing taking place . IMO

Yes, China controls Manono...for now. However in a best case legal outcome for AVZ we would retain majority holding of the full tenement...on paper, at least.

If Trump does come in to play - the Bloomberg video report above is bullish on DRC opening up to western investment after positive US state dept interest - then anything is possible given our legal standing.

And yes, China would prefer Trump sort the M23 situation, which he could do a lot easier than with Ukraine/Russia deal. But there would be a price for China to pay lol.

Would Trump cede access and control of a shovel-ready monster like Manono to China? His current mood for resource independence and security is writ large...Ukraine, Greenland and now Taiwan.

This week he announced a $160 billion deal by Taiwan's largest semi-conductor manufacturer to commence operations in Arizona, a brilliant move.

Aside from cementing chip resource security for the US, it also robs China of a huge incentive to roll Taiwan and control global semi-conductor supply.

Interesting times.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Do we know the actual dates for this shit show yet? https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/23/20

Now we have cross 1000 days, I need a new countdown to stop me going bonkers.

Getting back to business.

The updates on ICSID last week were to set a timetable for proceedings, and then also set the emergency requests of AVZ against the DRC. Procedural order 1 is the timeline:

1. November 23, 2023: DRC submits a response to the request for provisional measures.
2. November 30, 2023: AVZ file a reply to the request for provisional measures.
3. December 11, 2023: hearing on the request for provisional measures involving all parties.

As an emergency request, and having Christmas, this should be ruled on before 24th December. I believe we have a strong case, given our win at the ICC and the ICSID chairman even mentioning the ICC win as a basis for the final 'measures' which will be heard on 11th December.

AVZ's emergency requests

• Suspend PR 13359 and PR 15775.
• Halt all mining activities by entities other than Dathcom within the mentioned permits.
• Restrain the DRC from taking any administrative actions prejudicial to the Claimants' interests.

DRC just submitted their responses to these requests, saying they are 'just another tactic to stall the project' - herp derp.

DLA will respond by the 30th and make additional claims, counter arguements against DRC etc. The arbitrator will then issue final requests to be heard o the 5th December. I don't think they will increase or decrease, the three are likely to just remain as is. TICSID tribunal will also determine the fine or penalty for breaking the injunction before the hearing.

I believe that once we have the measures in place, we can start to discuss, also because DLA will be looking to submit damages claims after securing the injunctions. Which will provide more leverage on coming to a negotiated settlement.

For the actual timeline if we need to go through with it all, it is below:

1. March 1, 2024: Claimants submit a Memorandum.
2. July 26, 2024: Production of documents and objections deadline for both parties.
3. August 9, 2024: Claimants and Respondent provide responses to objections to document production.
4. September 27, 2024: Tribunal issues a decision on document production.
5. May 5, 2025: Identification of witnesses and experts for cross-examination by both Claimants and Respondent.
6. June 2-4, 2025 (June 5 reserved): Scheduled hearing involving all parties.

We've known the actual dates for 465 days thanks to 9card

 

[Mute22]

We've known the actual dates for 465 days thanks to 9card
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Thanks, I recall seeing that but didn't save it

Only 87 days to go

 

[Retrobyte]

Understatement of the decade!

 

[Flight996]

Understatement of the decade!

View attachment 78748

Haha...If King Felix-the-corrupt thinks the orange buffoon will commit US military resources to a basket-case country like the DRC, he's even more unhinged than we suspect. He needs to stick to his knitting, and leave the strategic planning to others.

 

[Frank]

Haha...If King Felix-the-corrupt thinks the orange buffoon will commit US military resources to a basket-case country like the DRC, he's even more unhinged than we suspect. He needs to stick to his knitting, and leave the strategic planning to others.

https://x.com/marrtoffee/status/1897643916930818221

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/DominicFurfaro/status/1897684443072176223

 

[Winenut]

General market has been struggling for quite a few weeks now

And there's more than enough going on geo-politically

I hope everyone's okay despite the challenges and getting through these difficult times

It's certainly a bit tough in general but hang in there, keep positive and things will eventually turn around

Cheers

 

[Jazz]