AVZ Discussion 2022

[JasonM]

I dont think avz are going mining, they have to say that. I think they'll sell out once ml is granted. at least if there are no bidders at a reaonable price then they'll have the backup option to mine but highly confident it'll be cath and someone else that takes it mining.

 

[Winenut]

All I can say after pretty crappy news for nearly the last 3 years is....

 

[cruiser51]

I dont think avz are going mining, they have to say that. I think they'll sell out once ml is granted. at least if there are no bidders at a reaonable price then they'll have the backup option to mine but highly confident it'll be cath and someone else that takes it mining.

Why do you believe AVZ HAS to say that?
It would be a pretty fucking stupid statement at this stage.

 

[Mute22]

Deboss's take, shame he had to use ChatGPT (You can tell because of the US English and em dashes)



Interesting statement given his recent inside relationship with management:

 

[BEISHA]

x.com

x.com

The boss just sent me this link for summary.

He is positive, everyone else should be happy too.!

 

[BEISHA]

First steps get in charge of 13359 and acquire the ML.
Keep ICC and ICSID arbitration cases going until the above achieved, signed and sealed in fucking blood.
To progress the arbitration cases, funding was required by end of month, early February.
The move of using GLH is to keep the Australian Government out of the picture because GLH is a Singaporean entity.
The Australian Government interests are to protect Australian mining.
To expect them to lift one finger to get Manono up and going was never going to happen.

Is it a good deal?
Locke funding was made as an interim, but I believe this deal to be better.
Locke held all the cards and could screw us completely over.
They aren't silly and had put a huge price on the risk they were prepared to take.
I would have been also very careful to go into sea with them.
I had in the back of my mind, this looks like a fucking Cash Converters type of deal, but it was needed at the time.
On the surface the deal with Cath seems to be much more advantageous, because it gives funding to continue with the arbitration cases and guarantees funding to build the mine.
A requirement for the ML.

Soooo
It looks like Zijin's so called announcement to start mining early 2026 seems to be a tactical move in this chess game.
They found out the Cath deal was about to happen.

It is in my eyes the exact reason that AVZ has to continue to keep its cards very close to its chest.

The CATH deal incorporates a working capital component which wasnt included in the Locke deal. 9% interest rate not too excessive and the collateral backing not as onerous.

 

[BEISHA]

@tolate

 

[PhatCatz]

is Locke funding dead? can we still draw from it if required? I don't know if it was wise to can it without ML granted... isnt this agreement only valid once ML is granted to the whole of the tenement?

So many questions I can't find an answer too.

Nonetheless it seems (on face value) a better outcome than Locke but still... i just can't trust the Chinese.

 

[Dutchaussie86]

Fatz I suggest you have another read of the ann. Your answer is there buddy.

 

[Hemicuda]

13359 is inclusive of the north, south, east and west imo

 

[JasonM]

Why do you believe AVZ HAS to say that?
It would be a pretty fucking stupid statement at this stage.

just to clarify, I'm stating avz has to say their intent is to go mining.

they're applying/wanting to recover the mining license which obviously allows them to go mining. It would be a bad look to be stating they want the mining lease so they can sell the asset. If it was avz's stated intent to sell if off on the back of this announcement, then drc may start asking themselves why grant the mining lease to a company that has no intention of going mining. all speculation on my part of course.

 

[Ashlee]

just to clarify, I'm stating avz has to say their intent is to go mining.

they're applying/wanting to recover the mining license which obviously allows them to go mining. It would be a bad look to be stating they want the mining lease so they can sell the asset. If it was avz's stated intent to sell if off on the back of this announcement, then drc may start asking themselves why grant the mining lease to a company that has no intention of going mining. all speculation on my part of course.

Jason I don’t agree with you.

 

[Roon]

The CATH deal incorporates a working capital component which wasnt included in the Locke deal. 9% interest rate not too excessive and the collateral backing not as onerous.

The initial collateral backing anyway. We don't know what the security backing is going to have to be after this first tranche is completed. They'll probably have solid leverage to push for something onerous. But that's probably a year down the line, lots of time for positive developments or momentum in that period.

 

[taofufa]

I dont think avz are going mining, they have to say that. I think they'll sell out once ml is granted. at least if there are no bidders at a reaonable price then they'll have the backup option to mine but highly confident it'll be cath and someone else that takes it mining.

Like Ganfeng TO LLL, let's hope this time will be different.

Im rather the stock remain delist for another year until the lithium pricing bounce back.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

13359 is inclusive of the north, south, east and west imo

All I could think reading this (the dark shadowy place is the North).

 

[obe wan]

Despite some reservations about this situation and parts of the announcement, i think that, on the whole, this is a positive development.

Having a big player like CATH/CATL backing our play and agreeing to leverage their influence on the DRC government could be the game changer we need. I was growing concerned that DRC were willing to go through the full ICSID process and then delay and obfuscate for many years after an award, tiring us and our funding out until we eventually accepted a Lowball settlement. However, this seems like it could present a way out in which all involved could get a slice of the pie. This may result in a negotiated outcome.

Glencore has operated effectively in DRC in part due to its involvement with its partner Zijin, perhaps a similar relationship with CATH/CATL is what we need to progress the Project forward.

I mean it's a good deal for CATH, but they've got the leverage, not us. It's also probably a bit of a master-stroke by the Chinese in that they'll likely control the output of Manono's entirety despite who succeeds. Bets are hedged. But they're no slouches in business and resource control! And hell, nobody has stepped up to resolve this to suit their own interests, like Aus/US, so this may well be in our own current best interests - certainly in comparison to the existential risk of being frozen out entirely.

This is as hopeful as I've been in the last two years.

One side point - i wonder if Locke will push back at all, given that an agreement with a minimum repayment spend of 10m was agreed. Will see i guess.

INTERESTING TIMES

“One side point - i wonder if Locke will push back at all, given that an agreement with a minimum repayment spend of 10m was agreed. Will see i guess.”

The announcement with Locke • AVZ expects to drawdown a first tranche of funds during December 2024 •

Litigation funds typically have a bag load of ‘if this happens then this , if this happens then this etc etc etc Locke no doubt would have a ream term ‘if’ terms gears towards opportunity and as much risk adversity as possible . Their payback multipliers of funding are generally X5++ of the load amount plus some beefy cherries suck as ability to buy up 10% of shares in the company , as well as the heavy security terms we’d be open to I.e security was the project

Ironically the clowns who caused this AFP stink may well have caused Locke to stall and ask questions giving CAT enough time to slide in and steal the show … imo the terms of security / loss of project ; potential another 10% holder coming on board may well have kicked CAT into gear.

I wonder who called the AFP

 

[Scoota30]

The KEY kicker in this announcement for me is the lithium hydroxide plant, this was the golden goose that would help unlock richer downstream margins.

IMO if we can retain Majority ownership of Manono while securing 49% ownership on the Hydroxide plant, I would argue we are almost better off with this latest JV agreement than CATH are??? Interested to hear thoughts?

This would be a perfect way to make sure every party ends up getting a "slice of the pie" and can help the DRC save face (Apart from Dathomir - they can go get fucked because Cong genuinely doesn't have a leg to stand on there)

AVZI will be granted an option to purchase up to 49% of CATH's interest in a lithium hydroxide or carbonate conversion plant (LHC Plant) to be built by CATH.

 

[Xerof]

So shit stain is crowing on about dealing with the Chinese....we have always had a deal with the Chinese - seemingly the 'right type' who are prepared to come into our room thought the front door, not the 'devious cunts' sliming in the back door - you know, the ones paying him 50 cents a pop for rubbish spamming

This is a great piece of negotiation. We have admittedly given up 1.5m per 1%; not too bad given the circumstances, but it now sits as an interest outside the direct participation in DATHCOM (no mention of whether CATH gets a board seat on GLH or DATHCOM) so there's no danger of AVZ losing control of DATHCOM, even if it were to reduce back to 60%

IMO, the $259.25 buys them 30.5% of GLH, end of story, no adjustments if anything happens with the 75% in DATHCOM, as was the original deal. We will likely use some of that cash, after paying off the Pre-completion funding, to buy out the remaining 15% from COMINIERE

CATH willing to build upstream plant is fantastic, and should be a major incentive for DRC to co-operate in sorting this out

Might have to pay Locke their $1m for the inconvenience - so be it

Fees are paid to kick off the ICC and ICSID - lets get on with it asap and tidy up all these loose ends

Possibly need some clarity around "project area covered by 13359" statement - I would think they want the whole thing back but it could be read as just Roche

Great day for AVZ shareholders IMO, and I got the quinella with an EPA approval announced for VRX today too!!

 

[Hodlandwin69]

So shit stain is crowing on about dealing with the Chinese....we have always had a deal with the Chinese - seemingly the 'right type' who are prepared to come into our room thought the front door, not the 'devious cunts' sliming in the back door - you know, the ones paying him 50 cents a pop for rubbish spamming

This is a great piece of negotiation. We have admittedly given up 1.5m per 1%; not too bad given the circumstances, but it now sits as an interest outside the direct participation in DATHCOM (no mention of whether CATH gets a board seat on GLH or DATHCOM) so there's no danger of AVZ losing control of DATHCOM, even if it were to reduce back to 60%

IMO, the $259.25 buys them 30.5% of GLH, end of story, no adjustments if anything happens with the 75% in DATHCOM, as was the original deal. We will likely use some of that cash, after paying off the Pre-completion funding, to buy out the remaining 15% from COMINIERE

CATH willing to build upstream plant is fantastic, and should be a major incentive for DRC to co-operate in sorting this out

Might have to pay Locke their $1m for the inconvenience - so be it

Fees are paid to kick off the ICC and ICSID - lets get on with it asap and tidy up all these loose ends

Possibly need some clarity around "project area covered by 13359" statement - I would think they want the whole thing back but it could be read as just Roche

Great day for AVZ shareholders IMO, and I got the quinella with an EPA approval announced for VRX today too!!

It's 30.5% of Manono via indirect ownership through GLH. It's more than 30.5% of GLH as it needs to be 30.5% of the Manono project imo

 

[Xerof]

so there's a question for Nigel to clarify that bit too