AVZ Discussion 2022

[Bonsoir]

I take your point Bonsior, however, I don’t believe the flow of information about the level of corruption in the DRC would reach the masses. If the level of corruption is to be believed, as all the evidence suggests then I have no doubt the larger population would be fed only what the government wish them to hear. In this era of fake news, misinformation and misdirection I know I struggle to sort fact from fiction, and I think this would probably also be an issue for the general population of the DRC.

Good luck to all.

Not so sure about flow of information, every time I see video clip from the masses in the DRC they seem to have a mobile phone in their hand and one would assume internet access to the majority population. Plenty of opposition party propaganda floating around also but your point is also taken.

 

[Mute22]

The locals are the only ones that can change the cycle of corruption with around 100 million of them. If the don’t have the will or are to stupid to understand why they are living the life they are then one can only conclude they are happy with their dung hole.

Trillions in minerals being led by a bunch of dumb slimy low life scum that should face the firing squad for the deceit of their people.

If you are waiting for some kind of popular uprising from in the DRC, you are confusing it for some kind of collective egalitarian or neo liberal society, don't be fooled by 'Democratic' in the name - North Korea has the same.

Not only do these people not have the same lived experiences and expectations you might, they have generations of baggage across over 250 different tribes with hundreds of years ethnic and cultural conflicts not even touching on interference from Belgium and China.

It's not even about having the will or 'smarts', but imagine being born into a society where corruption happens in every interaction in your life, from the police to the post office - it's expected all the way to the top. If you aren't getting you're piece you are getting got. It will take generations to turn that bus around.

Add on top of that, you are barely getting by - why wouldn't you take any chance to help yourself out?

Forget about having the time to engage in activism to reshape a culturally fractured and geographically separate country, that's an absolute luxury. 70% of the population lives below the poverty line of only $2.15 a day. Your only representation is your local tribal leader, who will just as readily enrich themselves 'for the tribe' at the first chance they get.

All that to say, we would probably individually act the same if born into the average DRC citizen's circumstances.

 

[wombat74]

No.

Felix does not care what his subordinates or corrupt offices underneath him are engaged in. It's a literal cabal where they all have blackmail material on each other for mutually assured destruction.

The only path forward for us will be through the courts so he can absolve himself from responsibility. I am adamant we are in this for the long haul now as we drag everybody kicking and screaming along the way.

Even then, we are probably years away, if ever of us recovering value. I don't see why a negotiated outcome is any more likely now with CATH involved, these people are operating on spite and are individually untouchable. Sure, you could argue with a negotiated settlement maybe the we drop the case and the corruption is swept under the rug. I don't think their arrogance will allow it.

We will win in the courts, and probably take years to negotiate some kind of lackluster compensation, meanwhile those who are corrupt will leave the country or be untouchables who will deflect blame to the state while pocketing millions - they can't lose, so why negotiate?

If you think the locals care about corruption, it's basically expected. They won't give two craps if international investors lose out on mining fancy rocks for expensive cars while they are being invaded by Rwanda and worrying where their next meal is going to come from.

Mate I know you struggle emotionally and have hit hard times due to this debacle . Flip Flopping emotions . Keep your chin mate and hang in there . You never know , good things maybe around corner .

 

[Mute22]

Mate I know you struggle emotionally and have hit hard times due to this debacle . Flip Flopping emotions . Keep your chin mate and hang in there . You never know , good things maybe around corner .

I have gone from: 'we are absolutely screwed' to 'with CATH funding we will win in the courts and get something, but be waiting years yet'.

Realistically, with the state of the country, my gut tells me no short-term negotiated outcome is going to occur before hand. Would be over the moon to be wrong however!

 

[wombat74]

I have gone from: 'we are absolutely screwed' to 'with CATH funding we will win in the courts and get something, but be waiting years yet'.

Realistically, with the state of the country, my gut tells me no short-term negotiated outcome is going to occur before hand. Would be over the moon to be wrong however!

You could be wrong .

 

[Mute22]

You could be wrong .

I've been positive since 2018, maybe I'm finally right?

 

[wombat74]

I've been positive since 2018, maybe I'm finally right?

Maybe you are very very wrong .

 

[Mute22]

Maybe you are very very wrong .

3-winky emojis? That's Deboss energy!

I respect your optimism, but I currently expect we will be having this same conversation in 2027.

Although it's probably this 43° heat having finally cooked my brain.

 

[Winenut]

3-winky emojis? That's Deboss energy!

I respect your optimism, but I currently expect we will be having this same conversation in 2027.

Although it's probably this 43° heat having finally cooked my brain.

Adelaide boy?

It sure as shit is hot here at the moment!

 

[Mute22]

Adelaide boy?

It sure as shit is hot here at the moment!

 

[wombat74]

A flashback to Scarpa's post on the crapper in January . Becoming more relevant .IMO
---------------------------------------------------------------------


"So the funds are to be used to secure the mining licence, which is pretty obvious too me, which by default also means address the 'court issues'.

CATH like Zijin are Chinese. I suspect securing the ML will involve CATH telling and AVZ ending court/arbitration in terms of the Zijin dispute. How that plays out will be interesting and I wouldn't be surprised if the deal struck for Manono proceeding longer term is some form of ultimate JV across the entire project area which may or may not involve Zijin (but IMO will most likely involve Zijin).

I posted yesterday that the timing of this deal is interesting given the naming and shaming of certain companies by the Yanks only a few days ago. For the Chinese players and DRC there was always the issue IMO of how they were going to get the product out of the DRC if they allowed this 'stealing to continue in the format Zijin were doing' given the USA's/world bank's (potential) funding role for the export corridors relating Tanzania/Angola/South Africa - meaning the only option that the Chinese would have is to build a 2,000 km plus railway to the only narrow stretch of ocean the DRC had within its own country (if they were to continue with the implicit stealing of Manono). The agreement IMO from a Chinese perspective is to limit that fallout through the CATH deal - it is now up to AVZ to ensure the tea leaves it is reading have been read correctly by it IMO IMO.

The deal is what it is - how it finalizes will be interesting, but the Ann is written in a way saying CATH wants access ASAP to Manono which means that CATH will be essentially 'telling' AVZ to come to an agreement (without significant escalation of further legal actions) for the areas under dispute in the now with Zijin in a timely manner. The idea I suspect CATH will be pursuing is to ensure the Chinese entity of Zijin 'saves face' as well as DRC corrupt officials (including Comminiere) also saving face (given ultimately China does want access to (other) DRC resources.

It is what it is IMO IMO as that is how I am seeing this. With so many potential new spodumene/brine projects coming onstream the approach here IMO by the Chinese IMO is to get Manono into production ASAP so as to stifle the development plans of those potential projects (whilst maintaining their dominance in battery and EV making). To put it another way, if all those potential projects in Canada were to be developed what would be the impact on China's dominance of the battery/EV market? Let alone after the shaming of those Chinese entities by the yanks, what would happen to their market dominance if spodumene feedstock was sourced directly by the US say from Australian and/or proposed Canadian mines.

The deal is what it is - after a 2.5 years delay time to get the project moving again. It is what it is and AVZ needs to just settle the matter given the lifeline been offered by CATH.

I am sure others will disagree, but ultimately the project has stalled for so long, it is time to get back on track."

 

[Winenut]

View attachment 77523

Peaked at 42.6 about 30 minutes ago

It's really fucking with my red wine consumption......

 

[Doc]

So if Fat Tail/carrot dick got 60m odd shares from unsolicited offers and if AVZ somehow get some form of decent result could those that sold into the unsolicited offer go to court to get their shares back?

 

[wombat74]

So if Fat Tail/carrot dick got 60m odd shares from unsolicited offers and if AVZ somehow get some form of decent result could those that sold into the unsolicited offer go to court to get their shares back?

View attachment 77534

Says it's illegal for a 3rd party to make an unsolicited offer using info contained in the Company's register of members. I'd definitely be asking for my shares back before I threaten legal action . Has anyone heard of this list of asreholes that are going to be dragged into court once this has settled ? No guessing who they might be . Usual suspects ?

 

[Scoota30]

A flashback to Scarpa's post on the crapper in January . Becoming more relevant .IMO
---------------------------------------------------------------------


"So the funds are to be used to secure the mining licence, which is pretty obvious too me, which by default also means address the 'court issues'.

CATH like Zijin are Chinese. I suspect securing the ML will involve CATH telling and AVZ ending court/arbitration in terms of the Zijin dispute. How that plays out will be interesting and I wouldn't be surprised if the deal struck for Manono proceeding longer term is some form of ultimate JV across the entire project area which may or may not involve Zijin (but IMO will most likely involve Zijin).

I posted yesterday that the timing of this deal is interesting given the naming and shaming of certain companies by the Yanks only a few days ago. For the Chinese players and DRC there was always the issue IMO of how they were going to get the product out of the DRC if they allowed this 'stealing to continue in the format Zijin were doing' given the USA's/world bank's (potential) funding role for the export corridors relating Tanzania/Angola/South Africa - meaning the only option that the Chinese would have is to build a 2,000 km plus railway to the only narrow stretch of ocean the DRC had within its own country (if they were to continue with the implicit stealing of Manono). The agreement IMO from a Chinese perspective is to limit that fallout through the CATH deal - it is now up to AVZ to ensure the tea leaves it is reading have been read correctly by it IMO IMO.

The deal is what it is - how it finalizes will be interesting, but the Ann is written in a way saying CATH wants access ASAP to Manono which means that CATH will be essentially 'telling' AVZ to come to an agreement (without significant escalation of further legal actions) for the areas under dispute in the now with Zijin in a timely manner. The idea I suspect CATH will be pursuing is to ensure the Chinese entity of Zijin 'saves face' as well as DRC corrupt officials (including Comminiere) also saving face (given ultimately China does want access to (other) DRC resources.

It is what it is IMO IMO as that is how I am seeing this. With so many potential new spodumene/brine projects coming onstream the approach here IMO by the Chinese IMO is to get Manono into production ASAP so as to stifle the development plans of those potential projects (whilst maintaining their dominance in battery and EV making). To put it another way, if all those potential projects in Canada were to be developed what would be the impact on China's dominance of the battery/EV market? Let alone after the shaming of those Chinese entities by the yanks, what would happen to their market dominance if spodumene feedstock was sourced directly by the US say from Australian and/or proposed Canadian mines.

The deal is what it is - after a 2.5 years delay time to get the project moving again. It is what it is and AVZ needs to just settle the matter given the lifeline been offered by CATH.

I am sure others will disagree, but ultimately the project has stalled for so long, it is time to get back on track."

CATL's HK listing to raise funds for its Hungary battery plant

CATL's HK listing to raise funds for its Hungary battery plant
Finance | 11 Feb 2025 8:03 pm

CATL's research and development hub and headquarters in Ningde, Fujian province. REUTERS
CATL's research and development hub and headquarters in Ningde, Fujian province. REUTERS
China's battery giant CATL has applied to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday night, after being reported to plan to raise at least US$5 billion (HK$39 billion).

CATL said the net proceeds would be used to advance its the construction of Phase I and II of its Hungary project. The company said in 2022 that it would build a 7.3 billion euro (HK$58.75 billion) battery plant in the eastern European country.

Chinese carmakers and their suppliers are accelerating their overseas expansion amid the competitive home market and the high import tariffs imposed by the European Union.

A listing of the Shenzhen-listed firm, the largest battery maker in the world, would be the largest listing in Hong Kong in four years, according to Dealogic data. At US$5 billion, it would be the biggest listing since Kuaishou Technology's (1024) 2021 initial public offering that raised US$6.2 billion, the data showed.

 

[whales]

Mate I know you struggle emotionally and have hit hard times due to this debacle . Flip Flopping emotions . Keep your chin mate and hang in there . You never know , good thi

Maybe you are very very wrong .

Interesting post.
Especially the highlight, first I have read about Zijin TO offer?
Perhaps explains why CATH are very keen to secure off takes , especially if USA are getting
involved??

Amovatio​

158 Posts.
1,804
Date:13/02/25Time:00:16:39Post #:77830552

Hello Wombat,
I have a different take on what could be playing out over the next 2 months as we look to try and bring this entire corruption racket to a close and allow AVZ SH’s to walk off into the sunset with their pockets loaded.
ATM a very timely sale is happening in which Chinese diversified major Zijin Mining has Agreed to sell off the Bullabulling gold project in Western Australia to a junior explorer for A$166.5 million ($103 million) cash and shares deal. Very timely given Zijin Appeal to the Paris ICC is scheduled for mid March and the Appeal is highly likely to be dismissed with substantial fines and legal costs needing to be paid out favouring AVZ.
Zijin has been scrambling to secure a seat at the negotiation table with AVZ for nearly 2 years to purchase a major shareholding but any hope of this deal getting off the ground is dwindling fast. They now have only a month to construct a substantial offer prior to the mid March Legal Appeal to TO AVZ Minerals.
IMO this won't happen. The corrupt dealings orchestrated by Zijin Mining with Cominiere and others has gone past the point where they simply can’t be trusted. With Zijin most likely to lose their Appeal the opportunity of returning to the negotiation table will also pass as AVZ has struck a deal with CATH (recent announcement).
We learn today that Fatshi is buying a new tailored suit in the USA for his upcoming meeting with the new President Trump. Now wouldn’t you love to have a seat at that table to hear Fatshi plead his case for the USA not to withhold financial AID while he reviews the USA position for the next 3 months. Funding was originally promised to the DRC and other African provinces totalling $4B. To add to this there is a further $4B in aid being withheld by the World Bank. Let us not forget the $500M promised to African nations to build the Lobito Corridor by Biden. So the question from President Trump is going to be ”What are you going to offer the Greatest country in the World being the USA, Fatshi as a goodwill agreement for the years of financial aid my Great country has provided to African nations?”
Here’s where it starts to get really interesting as the USA wants access to both critical minerals and the world’s best Lithium products to prevent the Chinese having world domination of these resources.

President Trump says “Here’s how I see it Fatshi! You are about to attend to an ICSID hearing involving the Australian Miner AVZ Minerals to defend your Country's actions. From reports I am receiving if this legal case goes ahead you risk a $10B PAYOUT and substantial fines that have been mounting for 2 years. Along with this will be the International damage to your own reputation which will scare countries away from ever investing in your region for at least a decade on the back of other cases that have been awarded against the DRC. So, from where I sit Fatshi, you don’t have a lot going for you, at this time”!
“Let’s me see how the USA can help the DRC move forward. Let the USA partner with the DRC to bring your valuable resources into production and the DRC avoid the International condemnation and loss of financial AID”.
“Fatshi, the USA wants you to grant AVZ Minerals an unconditional ML (both North and South licences included). This ends the ICSID Legal case as my Country will work to have AVZ on sell the ML Licences to My US team. The USA will purchase the Mining Licences from AVZ Minerals for a fair price (so you never have to deal with their management again). There will be no Zijin Mining and no Manono Lithium. You will revoke any permits or licences that may have been issued to these companies and they will exit immediately”. By Agreement AVZ will not have any further involvement in the Manono project and the DRC will have the USA as a partner to fast track the Lithium mine and bring this to production within 2 years.
The USA Will build the Mine and a battery processing factory in the DRC. My Country will negotiate a Fair Price which the USA will be willing to acquire the Lithium from the DRC at the appropriate time so your Country is paid Taxes and bonuses for giving the USA sole Mandate to build the mine. There is more

Fatshi……. you will also sell to the USA the remaining 25% at an agreed price”.

President Trump will say “Fatshi this deal is good for You and the DRC because you will not have to appear in the International ICSID court and have your Country ridiculed for the corruption that has taken place. You will not have to payout the $10B or the mounting fines caused by Cominiere and your Administration for not following your Mining Code and being in breach of International law.

"Fatshi, I will ensure you are well compensated for the Lithium production and critical minerals the USA acquires".
We will build the Lobito rail line and fund the purchase of the trains to transport the Lithium and other critical minerals (through other offtake agreements) to the Port for export. Further, we can assist with building roads, communications infrastructure, hospitals and schools. This will ensure my people (from USA) have oversight where our AID money is spent, without it ever getting into corrupt hands”. How does that sound Fatshi? It’s a good deal for the DRC and your people, don’t you think!”
IMO the offer for AVZ from the USA to TAKE OVER the ML will be made for AVZ SH’s to approve between $1.50 USD and $3.00 USD per share. Based on the above scenarios playing out this could happen before June.

IMO AVZ will not be involved in Manono moving forward. The relationship with the DRC is beyond repair. Manono will most probably be owned and operated by the USA and President Trump will achieve his critical minerals targets in the first 100days of his second term.

87Like
Great analysis 36
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AVZ (ASX)

 

[TheCount]

Interesting post.
Especially the highlight, first I have read about Zijin TO offer?
Perhaps explains why CATH are very keen to secure off takes , especially if USA are getting
involved??

Amovatio​

158 Posts.
1,804
Date:13/02/25Time:00:16:39Post #:77830552


87Like
Great analysis 36
Report PostQuick replyReply with quote
AVZ (ASX)

 

[Dazmac66]

"Zijin has been scrambling to secure a seat at the negotiation table with AVZ for nearly 2 years to purchase a major shareholding"
Ammo posts some great stuff but I am not sure where the evidence for this idea comes from. They only want to pay what fits in a brown bag. Negotiating a fair price would be a long way down their list of tactics.

,

 

[j.l]

"Zijin has been scrambling to secure a seat at the negotiation table with AVZ for nearly 2 years to purchase a major shareholding"
Ammo posts some great stuff but I am not sure where the evidence for this idea comes from. They only want to pay what fits in a brown bag. Negotiating a fair price would be a long way down their list of tactics.

That post was a great read, but alas I suspect pure fantasy. Was great while it lasted though

I was under the impression that Zijin have been low-balling Nigel for some time. Not so sure about scrambling to the negotiating table. But it could be the CATH deal changed all that...

 

[Winenut]

Nige and Cath box seat

Zijin can go fuck themselves along with Cominiere and the other corrupt bad actors