AVZ Discussion 2022

[Frank]

I think everyone in here is getting a little too excited. Management may be slow as disclosing anything, but they don't make too many bonehead moves (cap raising debacle aside...) so I can't see them running a roadshow where they are straight up going to get slaughtered. It just doesn't make sense. There must be something in the winds so sit back, crack a cold VB and wait for it all to unfold.

Jumping on the freak-out bandwagon isn't good for anyone's health.

Just a few more Sleeps peeps

 

[MoneyBags1348]

Going by the biggest ramper in HC history ............MR cock sucker ANATOL...............RIO is going to TO LTR.

But then again........the red necks on the LTR HC threads have been mentioning TO for the last 2 years..........

What would RIO rather do.............dig a million miles of dirt to get spod from LTR ?

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Or provide snacks to the DRC officials / China for the LOM of RD ?

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BEISHA, As you know, we first disagreed because I was annoyed at having to sort through all the off topic posts to get to the ones with the information…. Since then I put up a few threads of my own to help sort through information better and if you want to find out more on Dan Gertler, @Frank gave me some good info on him that I put on the Corruption thread, it gives a scary insight into some of the corruption going on.

Once you, @Frank and @JAG pulled me into line, I posted comments to support the company and investors here who are worried, but there has to be a sense of reality here.

I’m just replying to you mate, I’m still hopeful of a positive outcome but I’ve had enough of unbalanced expectations here, fortunately @Winenut, @John25 and a few others have kept me laughing and I’ve got plenty of good 70’s music to listen to and which I hope will keep me off the forum for a while or otherwise I’ll be asking @Frank for an intervention

 

[Bin59]

Svetlana staying +ive

 

[Roon]

Misinfor

Svetlana staying +ive

Misinformation goes both ways - Svetlana has accused others of presenting biased or misleading information, yet provides only positive confirmatory information linking together a loose amd tenous collection of data points to suit a bullish or rampy position. I think those on the extreme fringes of both sides are best taken with a whole shaker of salt.

 

[Bin59]

Agree - however generally her research points us in the right direction - I appreciate her research / analogies, but don’t take it as gospel. Always DYOR

 

[BEISHA]

BEISHA, sorry to say but any company would rather be investing here than in a country run by monkeys and corrupt officials in Chinese pockets.

As you know, we first disagreed because I was annoyed at having to sort through all the off topic posts to get to the ones with the information…. Since then a put up a few threads of my own to help sort through information better and if you want to find out more on Dan Gertler, @Frank gave me some good info on him that I put on the Corruption thread, it gives a scary insight into some of the corruption going on.

Only thing getting me worked up now is how many people seem to think Nigel has brought on the Roadshows to provide good news. Apparently he might have been out with his timing on the ML by a year or two in the past but he’s since got it down with such pinpoint accuracy that it will miraculously appear at the precise time as the Perth Roadshow.

Once you, @Frank and @JAG pulled me into line, I posted comments to support the company and investors here who are worried, but there has to be a sense of reality here.

As I’ve said before, at the Sydney Roadshow, Nigel said the ML was due in the next month, I was the only one there that stood up and said “that’s not going to happen”…. His reply to me was “Isn’t it”…. To which I replied “No, here’s why”

Sure enough the next fucken day a new presentation came out putting the ML back again.

I’m just replying to you mate, I’m still hopeful of a positive outcome, just not at the Roadshows. I’ve had enough of unbalanced expectations here, fortunately @Winenut, @John25 and a few others have kept me laughing and I’ve got plenty of good 70’s music to listen to and which I hope will keep me off the forum for a while or otherwise I’ll be asking @Frank for an intervention

Just having a bit of a laugh mate.............of course RIO would prefer to invest in WA / OZ.

I am not one of those posters who think any good is going to come from the roadshows.............covering ones arse and bubble blowing is what i expect, with a cryptic hint to poor suffering long sophs as to what the meat might be for this insane 6 month and counting extension of suspension.

The tea leaves are suggesting nothing else..............

" The company will provide a UPDATE to the market of the status of its activities in the DRC leading up to the planned roadshows and AGM next month. "

Lol, what activities could that be ?

 

[Dom1974]

 

[TDITD]

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Just a few more Sleeps peeps

Excellent work as per usual frank

 

[solo]

Don't you find it's strange that while many local reporters were following Dathomir/AVZ tribunal case, no one was aware of its decision dated 20 September 2022?

We've learnt about this case number (RPA7610 à l cour d'appel d Lushi ds l Haut-Katanga) on 31st August from Kayala Flore tweet. According to her Simon Cong was asking for $50 mil. Last time I spoke to her on WhatsApp on 25th September she confirmed there was no verdict yet. During this time I was also in touch with another reporter who was chasing court ruling and got nothing as well. And then one month later out of the blue...

I have couple of thoughts about this - both negative and positive ones but most realistic one seems to me that DRC Government and AVZ achieved some kind of principal agreement already and Kinshasa ordered to bury this verdict under the tree where this court sits (see below). It seems only very limited number of people knew about it until someone leaked it to Boatman and to cocksucker afr journo (probably Cong).

I'm convinced to think that this problem with Simon Cong will be solved with help of the government. Same relates to ICC case with Zijin. Time works against DRC now. All around the world they are talking non-stop about the leading role of the country in a world's green transition, they already presented new site for a battery plant and they are not that dumb (I hope so) not to understand that they will need an operating lithium mine soon to fulfil all their wet fantasies. If that TV show with Zijin and MoP some time ago was not a fake one then I'm pretty sure DRC will ask Zijin to step away and drop ICC case.

No one can take mine from AVZ. All they can do is to try to starve us out (and in my opinion this is what they were trying to do since May) and make us leave selling asset for peanuts. But it didn't work out and it seems they finally realized that. I know that end of September and October was very busy for Nigel in DRC. I still believe something big is brewing over there and I hope this time DRC government is serious about making things done.

 

[Frank]

The warriors called for more results two months before the end of the year (Sama Lukonde)

The Prime Minister urged the ministers to spare no effort to continue carrying out the government's actions planned in the 2021-2023 action program.

The Chief Executive, Sama Lukonde, said so after the mid-term self-assessment of the government's action made during the 74th meeting of the Council of Ministers which he chaired on Friday. October 21, 2022, by videoconference.

He recalled that the government's 2021-2023 action program can be summed up in four sectors, namely: "Politics, justice, defense and security"; Economy and Finance”; "Reconstruction"; “Social and Cultural”.

He insisted on the need for each of the ministers to spare no effort to pursue the implementation of the planned actions, which must materialize the vision of the President of the Republic, that of building a strong, prosperous and united Congo.

He, therefore, urged each minister, as far as he is concerned, to engage in this requirement of results-based management, to identify the actions completely carried out, those in progress and those not yet carried out.

For the head of government, this public management exercise will enable the government to better fulfill its duty of accountability in complete transparency vis-à-vis the people.

It should be remembered that this mid-term self-assessment of the government's actions is being done almost two months from the end of the current year.

mediacongo


*So what's the holdup

Food for thought Felix

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

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First come, first served…

What does that even mean in the context of our ML? That statement is not evidenced through results to date.

 

[Dom1974]

Re: Chinese starve us out by playing the long game. I would happily throw more money at AVZ for a CR if the end result was to piss the Chinese off.

 

[Dom1974]

First come, first served…

What does that even mean in the context of our ML? That statement is not evidenced through results to date.

Who knows? I'll take whatever feel good snippets are on offer from AVZ lawyer at the moment.

 

[TDITD]

View attachment 19867

Umm ahhh hmmm awkward, we are STILL waiting to be served.........only something like a YEAR now. However we have had some very nice words lately, maybe I can feed my kids some nice words for dinner tonight, I may pop down to the local Porsche dealer and buy a Taycan with my newfound nice words.

"Hows your portfolio" -A
"Ahhh mixed bag mate, in the plus but suspended and havent been able to touch for about 24 weeks mate" TDITD
"Christ thats a bugger mate, have you at least got some nice words" -A
"Fuck me mate, recently I've been overflowing with nice words, my portfolio is absolutely teeming with some very nice words" -TDITD
"Mate wtf you complaining about then, those nice words will have you set for life you lucky bastard" -A.

Many/most/if not ALL of us very patient and long-suffering shareholders are somewhat bored/fatigued/disinterested of words now, this may come as a surprise to the BOD but, action would be nice fellas, you know like a whole year of talking and nice words is really undoubtably marvellous, however some of us astonishingly demanding shareholders would now like some tangible results, an outcome even. Its almost as if we are investing to make money and go mining.

Anyhow, back to the nice pretty words fellas, that'll help.
I may throw a couple of "imminents" on the BBQ later, kids will love it

 

[Frank]

Excellent work as per usual frank

In the first half of 2021, mining royalties in the provinces of Lualaba and Haut-Katanga valued at nearly USD 650 million

The contribution of the mining industry to the economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was strong during the year 2021, welcomed Mr. Louis Watum Kabamba, President of the Chamber of Mines of the Federation companies of the Congo (FEC).

During a press conference organized on Friday, October 21, 2022, at the Fleuve Congo Hotel, in Kinshasa, Mr. Louis Watum indeed indicated that the sum of 647,208,290 USD was paid to the Public Treasury, solely by the mining industry established in the two provinces of the country, namely Lualaba and Haut-Katanga, as mining royalties during the first half of 2021.

For the President of the Chamber of Mines of the FEC, these results demonstrate the rise of mining production with a lot of wealth created.

“It is estimated that 2,106,034 tonnes of copper will be produced in 2022, i.e. a variation of +17.9%. 139,416 tonnes of cobalt produced in 2022 compared to 107,123 tonnes recorded in 2021, i.e. a higher production increase of 30.1%.

Cassiterite ( SnO2 ) production reached an estimated volume of 28,680 tonnes in 2022 against 27,990 tonnes in 2021, i.e. a production increase rate of 2.5%.

At least 31,698 tons of gold were produced in 2022 against 31,903 tons in 2021, which shows a variation of 2.4%. “, noted Mr. Louis Watum Kabamba.

This press conference was organized at the end of the three-day Forum focused on the theme: "Mining activity in the DRC and its challenges: evaluation of the Revised Mining Code of 2018".

During these meetings, several resolutions were adopted in response to the concerns of operators in the mining industry.

"We would like greater collaboration and support from the Government", declared Mr. Louis Watum Kabamba while recalling the need to institutionalize a quarterly consultation platform Government - mining sector; and maintaining efforts to improve the business climate.

According to the Coordinator of the Chamber of Mines, Bernadette Mpundu, this press conference, the fourth of its kind, is an opportunity to dispel all the misinformation conveyed on the Chamber of Mines and restore its image.

"We will never say it enough, the Chamber of Mines, communicates through its press conferences, truthful information on the mining sector, in order to dispel all misinformation conveyed by its detractors and restore the image of the sector to all levels.

At the end of this fourth edition, we are convinced that you will leave here having learned definitively that the mining sector of our country is the lung of the Congolese economy and that the State must play its part in terms of transparency and allocation of funds from our mining industry. “, she said.

Apart from the holding of the Mining Forum, the third quarter of 2022 was marked by important achievements of the Chamber of Mines, including the official release of the National Club of Subcontractors and the organization of the Ordinary General Assembly of the Chamber of Mines.

mediacongo

More Time = Less Wealth for Felix and the DRC atm

 

[wombat74]

Don't you find it's strange that while many local reporters were following Dathomir/AVZ tribunal case, no one was aware of its decision dated 20 September 2022?

We've learnt about this case number (RPA7610 à l cour d'appel d Lushi ds l Haut-Katanga) on 31st August from Kayala Flore tweet. According to her Simon Cong was asking for $50 mil. Last time I spoke to her on WhatsApp on 25th September she confirmed there was no verdict yet. During this time I was also in touch with another reporter who was chasing court ruling and got nothing as well. And then one month later out of the blue...

I have couple of thoughts about this - both negative and positive ones but most realistic one seems to me that DRC Government and AVZ achieved some kind of principal agreement already and Kinshasa ordered to bury this verdict under the tree where this court sits (see below). It seems only very limited number of people knew about it until someone leaked it to Boatman and to cocksucker afr journo (probably Cong).

I'm convinced to think that this problem with Simon Cong will be solved with help of the government. Same relates to ICC case with Zijin. Time works against DRC now. All around the world they are talking non-stop about the leading role of the country in a world's green transition, they already presented new site for a battery plant and they are not that dumb (I hope so) not to understand that they will need an operating lithium mine soon to fulfil all their wet fantasies. If that TV show with Zijin and MoP some time ago was not a fake one then I'm pretty sure DRC will ask Zijin to step away and drop ICC case.

No one can take mine from AVZ. All they can do is to try to starve us out (and in my opinion this is what they were trying to do since May) and make us leave selling asset for peanuts. But it didn't work out and it seems they finally realized that. I know that end of September and October was very busy for Nigel in DRC. I still believe something big is brewing over there and I hope this time DRC government is serious about making things done.


View attachment 19863

Mate unfortunately for the Chinese we still have a bank full off of cash and will not be intimidated . As for Cong if all he wants is $50mil in total then lets cut a deal before he takes it to Arbitration . As for Zijin's 15% quite frankly I couldn't give a sh1t as long as we have 51% control .

 

[ptlas]

Don't you find it's strange that while many local reporters were following Dathomir/AVZ tribunal case, no one was aware of its decision dated 20 September 2022?

We've learnt about this case number (RPA7610 à l cour d'appel d Lushi ds l Haut-Katanga) on 31st August from Kayala Flore tweet. According to her Simon Cong was asking for $50 mil. Last time I spoke to her on WhatsApp on 25th September she confirmed there was no verdict yet. During this time I was also in touch with another reporter who was chasing court ruling and got nothing as well. And then one month later out of the blue...

I have couple of thoughts about this - both negative and positive ones but most realistic one seems to me that DRC Government and AVZ achieved some kind of principal agreement already and Kinshasa ordered to bury this verdict under the tree where this court sits (see below). It seems only very limited number of people knew about it until someone leaked it to Boatman and to cocksucker afr journo (probably Cong).

I'm convinced to think that this problem with Simon Cong will be solved with help of the government. Same relates to ICC case with Zijin. Time works against DRC now. All around the world they are talking non-stop about the leading role of the country in a world's green transition, they already presented new site for a battery plant and they are not that dumb (I hope so) not to understand that they will need an operating lithium mine soon to fulfil all their wet fantasies. If that TV show with Zijin and MoP some time ago was not a fake one then I'm pretty sure DRC will ask Zijin to step away and drop ICC case.

No one can take mine from AVZ. All they can do is to try to starve us out (and in my opinion this is what they were trying to do since May) and make us leave selling asset for peanuts. But it didn't work out and it seems they finally realized that. I know that end of September and October was very busy for Nigel in DRC. I still believe something big is brewing over there and I hope this time DRC government is serious about making things done.


View attachment 19863

Agree 100%.

Would add that I would bet a pound to a penny (that's the Pom in me) that AVZ has been mustering support at a national/international level possibly via Oz government.
The yanks want this and would be involved.
It's just something that will remain unspoken, at least for now.

 

[wombat74]

Umm ahhh hmmm awkward, we are STILL waiting to be served.........only something like a YEAR now. However we have had some very nice words lately, maybe I can feed my kids some nice words for dinner tonight, I may pop down to the local Porsche dealer and buy a Taycan with my newfound nice words.

"Hows your portfolio" -A
"Ahhh mixed bag mate, in the plus but suspended and havent been able to touch for about 24 weeks mate" TDITD
"Christ thats a bugger mate, have you at least got some nice words" -A
"Fuck me mate, recently I've been overflowing with nice words, my portfolio is absolutely teeming with some very nice words" -TDITD
"Mate wtf you complaining about then, those nice words will have you set for life you lucky bastard" -A.

Many/most/if not ALL of us very patient and long-suffering shareholders are somewhat bored/fatigued/disinterested of words now, this may come as a surprise to the BOD but, action would be nice fellas, you know like a whole year of talking and nice words is really undoubtably marvellous, however some of us astonishingly demanding shareholders would now like some tangible results, an outcome even. Its almost as if we are investing to make money and go mining.

Anyhow, back to the nice pretty words fellas, that'll help.
I may throw a couple of "imminents" on the BBQ later, kids will love it

Are your balls still wedged in the drawer ?

 

[FilthyRich2]

At last Roadshows in 2021 and in 2022 (called prior to roadshow cancellations) there was a private discussion of a surprise twist for shareholders which was never disclosed in its exact nature. (AVZ not to be a one trick pony discussion , and diversification many of you heard) (positive outcome even before the concerns that have arisen in last 6 months)

The government through their actions seem to be building up to that event (my guess , pure speculation)

I think we will get a bit more of the action than we bargained for (which will blow out estimates made by Con Garlas)

Further clues are in the article below, why would Julien be stating this in the press.

My thoughts are
-Larger Processing Plant than imagined
-Rail infrastructure to be fast-tracked
-We have a share of an interest in a Hydroxide plant (perhaps more than one if Europe is engaged)
-Plan B was always CDL for redevelopment (but as a last resort , I think we do not need that Plan B unless a major player makes an offer just to do a JV with CDL)

The costings below are rather specific for Julien to quote, for battery plant I think they have researched further and realised this project can be made to a larger scale very quickly. (my speculation). The discussions on ownership are just noise, which is already determined in outcome by DRC Goverment, just not actioned yet unfortunately.

Article link below

Belgique - 8e édition de Rebrading Africa Forum: Julien Paluku appelle les pays africains à mutualiser les forces pour quitter l'étape des économies des importations à la transformation locale des ressources naturelles

Les travaux de la 8e édition de Rebranding Africa Forum se sont clôturés vendredi 21 octobre 2022 au Parlement de la Fédération Wallonie Bruxelles en Belgique.

actualite.cd

The work of the 8th edition of Rebranding Africa Forum ended on Friday 21 October 2022 at the Parliament of the Wallonia-Brussels Federation in Belgium. Focused on the implementation of investment attraction strategies by African countries, the Democratic Republic of Congo was represented by its Minister of Industry Julien Paluku Kahongya.

On this occasion, Julien Paluku shared the experience of the Democratic Republic of Congo on the process of installing a first plant for the manufacture of electric battery precursors in the province of Haut-Katanga and setting up Special Economic Zones that offer tax, para-fiscal and customs benefits to investors, by developing his country's Master Plan for Industrialization valued at 58.4 billion US dollars.

He continued:

"The second element that makes the Republic a major element in this energy transition is today in Europe as everywhere else everyone wants to get out of vehicles with combustion engines in circulation, they must be replaced by electric vehicles and again the elements that go into the composition of these electric batteries are in particular Cobalt, Lithium, Manganese Etc we have in the Democratic Republic of Congo 70% of world reserves of Cobalt on this point, there is no match, the DRC is a very important player in the energy transition. According to Bloomberg, if it is necessary to install a plant to manufacture electric batteries in the USA, it would cost 117 million USD, the same factory in China 112 million USD, the same factory in Poland 65 million USD against the same factory under the same conditions in the DRC would cost only 39 million USD it means that investing in the DRC in the manufacture of electric batteries costs three times less in the USA, in China and elsewhere. The DRC is much more attractive and competitive in this sector."

Taking advantage of the forum of this forum which brought together representatives of African countries, entrepreneurs and technical and financial partners from other continents, the Minister of Industry called on the countries of the black continent to mutualize to transform the economies of imports to local processing economies of natural resources.

"We presented to the Council of Ministers the establishment of a Congolese battery council, it will be the governance structure of all these Energy Transition issues, it remains only for the President of the Republic to appoint the leaders of this council which will have within it a technical committee that will be composed of experts from all sides who know the subject well so that we ensure that the governance of this chain of value of Electric Batteries becomes a structure both technical and operational for moving forward. Between Zambia and us, we are already on the right track and we invite other African countries that are producers of these elements that I mentioned so that we effectively install this large regional value chain that will capture world markets," he said.

For Julien Paluku, speaker at this forum, the lack of infrastructure and energy in this country are opportunities that investors should seize.

"We cannot raise the processing of our minerals effectively if there is no infrastructure, if there is no energy. I have always said that Africa's problems are not problems. These are opportunities to seize," said Julien Paluku.

 

[wombat74]

You know,

It almost feels like with the ML about to be granted, you could finally gently cup your balls and with huge relief slowly lift them up and out from the drawer that has been menacingly threatening to slam shut for years now. Sometimes that draw has had a big hairy sweaty hand on it and has looked like some sadistic bastard was about to slam it shut slowly moving it back an forth, but so far every time it looks perilously close we have heard a calming voice as we look over our shoulder, its Nigel.
He arrives places a hand on shoulder playfully comments on our dishevelled state as he proceeds to carefully and with precision shave our haggard and weary balls, thoughtfully placing a hot towel on them and removing the menacing hand from the drawer we feel intimately safer. He then produces from what seems like nowhere a moisturising cream to rejuvenate our fatigued war-torn family jewels, much better you say out loud, but he has already gone......however we realise we are still standing here still with balls in the drawer ffs, but they do feel great, I must ask him where he gets that moisturising cream from.

Once again a hand is on the drawer, vexatiously threatening once more to slam it shut. "Nigel, Nigel where are you I shout...."





(Disclaimer, if this is thought to be in bad taste I will take it down and apologise)

This older post from TDITD still very relevant . Sorry mate for revisiting but it's a classic .