But agreed. I had a deadline for the end of January for something to happen, as that’s passed the Christmas and new year period. Still nothing. I’m also getting pessimistic about the dam breaking and not having to wait for appeals.
TLG Discussion 2022
- Thread starter zeeb0t
- Start date
curiousmagpie
Regular
The scoping study released was incomplete and only showed an upper limit to the tpa of graphite that can be mined. It omitted all downstream processing, no figures at all for anode plant, and didn't include an NPV. It used a magical number of US$4,000 for a product (Talphite) that no one is buying at that price or in any quantity. It's a price closer to the current AAM price than a graphite concentrate.
This is what they promised and the capital raise was supposed to pay for it:
11/6/24:
29/7/24:
and then....
31/1/25
Underway! That's the best they can do? It was underway 8 months ago and supposed to be completed last year.
Another target missed. They can't even hit the targets that they have control of.
And the likely reason is it would show an unviable project. No one is risking the amount of capital that would be required for the higher mining rate scenario (>US$5-6bn?) when the NPV is certainly lower than the capex at current prices, and probably closer to $0.
I just took you off ignore to see if a new year might bring new wisdom... (sigh)
A mining study that doesn't show downstream numbers - how unusual!
It's delayed because it's an unviable project - or is it because they're looking at a 10+ X expansion and it looks much better releasing the finished study once the EU strategic project designation is in place
No one will risk capital - I'm pretty sure the EU will. And Intel from the AGM suggests there's a well perceived strategic investor ready to jump in. You better tell them the project is rubbish as clearly they're not here for the 19 5k TPA ride.
The real unknow question is why you're still here and not posting on your coal company forum... you are either a somewhat simple person who enjoys wasting their own time, or your constant posts are actually an attempt to have others sell to help your agenda.
Back on ignore you go.
That's my thinking too. The wording re the grant is somewhat vague but does seem to suggest part funding can be used for operational expenses if they relate to the project. Here's hoping.
curiousmagpie
Regular
Semmel
Top 20
Mark's latest tweet:
Sorry, but I don't follow the assessment of "great start to 2025". In this tweet it looks like Mark said Talga is cruising on a highway, making good distance while I see a car with flat tires standing on the side of the road. I understand that Mark's insight and information level is vastly different than mine but from my point of view, nothing is great at moment.
We have practically (according to Talgas own statements) nothing blocking us from finalizing customer contracts for months now, yet none are to be seen. All while funds are running out. I feel, quite frankly, a bit misled by this. There is either real progress on customers (very soon!) or this is not a great start. There is no in-between. A business needs customers or it's not a business.
PS: I do like his dedication to performance cars, and I'm happy for him to visit this location. All the best! But vacation pictures don't count at moment.
Sorry, but I don't follow the assessment of "great start to 2025". In this tweet it looks like Mark said Talga is cruising on a highway, making good distance while I see a car with flat tires standing on the side of the road. I understand that Mark's insight and information level is vastly different than mine but from my point of view, nothing is great at moment.
We have practically (according to Talgas own statements) nothing blocking us from finalizing customer contracts for months now, yet none are to be seen. All while funds are running out. I feel, quite frankly, a bit misled by this. There is either real progress on customers (very soon!) or this is not a great start. There is no in-between. A business needs customers or it's not a business.
PS: I do like his dedication to performance cars, and I'm happy for him to visit this location. All the best! But vacation pictures don't count at moment.
cosors
👀
He will present next week. In what context and on which channel?
Benchmark event in Sydney, Melb and Perth.
curiousmagpie
Regular
A good start for him because he got a nice trip to Europe. Nothing good for Talga shareholders.
Also having to caveat his tweets as “NOT BREADCRUMBS” now. How long ago was the hedgehog? Reached a year anniversary yet of that teaser that turned into nothing?
Semmel
Top 20
I need to clarify something. I do like Talga. Its a great project! It has everything I want from a company: good impact on the environment: Despite the screaching of the locals, the mine is actually good for the environment as it reduces CO2 massively and uses a natural product that is unique in the world. The leadership is normally not in any shape BS: Mark and the broader Talga did not pump its stock as so many others did. It was always one of the best arguments for Talgas leadership. This unfortunately, is slowly turning as promises are not kept. Talga is politically absolutely necessary on EU level! And the EU knows this. Unfortunately, the EU is even slower in its processes as the Swedish court system. However, it has EU and Swedish government support. We as Europeans and EV manufacturers NEED this company. We dont want to get dependent on China for batteries as we were/are dependent on the middle east for oil. Talga has a compatetive technological advantage! It seems to be one of the the only companies that figured out anode/graohite coating outside china. It has a (presumably if its not shelved) one of the first viable Si additives for the anode. It has maybe the only economic process to recycle black mess to new anode material (that I still dont understand how). There is so much chocolate in that pudding! Talga is great and I am a proud investor of it!
The reason I seem to be so negative as of late is, that it seems the company needs a fire lit under their feet! I have no clue what takes so long to close deals, but NOW IS THE TIME! At some point, even the best project with the best tech and the best leadership needs to make a profit. We dont want to sell below price but we need to sell our product! Talga is currently starving and the belt is already on the second to last hole.
The reason I seem to be so negative as of late is, that it seems the company needs a fire lit under their feet! I have no clue what takes so long to close deals, but NOW IS THE TIME! At some point, even the best project with the best tech and the best leadership needs to make a profit. We dont want to sell below price but we need to sell our product! Talga is currently starving and the belt is already on the second to last hole.
What was the reply ?
curiousmagpie
Regular
I see a few are catching up to the opinion I formed 8-9 months ago.
They have fumbled comms horribly. After so many promises this is just looking like every other Perth based hopes and dreams peddlers. Over promise and under deliver has been a constant pattern for years.
Still one clear reason they can't get a deal done:
Can't sell their product for a price that makes the project work. The question remains: will EU customers pay double to break from Chinese supply? Every day no deal gets announced is another day the answer is no and another day closer to a dilutive capital raise. How can a company fund a project that is going to cost 5X it's market cap?
They have fumbled comms horribly. After so many promises this is just looking like every other Perth based hopes and dreams peddlers. Over promise and under deliver has been a constant pattern for years.
Still one clear reason they can't get a deal done:
Can't sell their product for a price that makes the project work. The question remains: will EU customers pay double to break from Chinese supply? Every day no deal gets announced is another day the answer is no and another day closer to a dilutive capital raise. How can a company fund a project that is going to cost 5X it's market cap?
cosors
👀
Have any of you heard anything, perhaps on X, about what kind of presentation this is?
Attachments
cosors
👀
Thank you! Right, that was in one of the last annexes.
Well, he's going to shake a lot of hands and maybe answer some questions.
But I suspect we won't hear anything there that we didn't already know.
And on the other side, the arsonists (?) Socialists, environmentalists and Sami are hypocritically and bitterly fighting their last fight against this project, leaving nothing but scorched earth in their wake.
Good and common sense will prevail, I hope.
Talga was always going to need to raise more capital at some point. We're a growing company. So it's not a surprise that they'd booked in to present at events like this. IMO I don't think it reflects anything about the companies short-term situation or any sort of imminent capital raising.
I for one was always of the opinion that an agreement 'soon' after the appeals rejection would be Q1'25. Still holding out we get some news over the coming 6 weeks. I get the frustration though. But looking at MT's latest tweets, hopefully the reason at least for not having a webinar yet is he's in Europe getting shit done, even if we can't be told anything yet.
In the meantime, here's my favourite little snippet from the latest presentation.
Aside from the fact I hate companies using the term 'know-how' (just sounds so amateurish) I like seeing IP licensing being discussed as an expansion opportunity for Talga.
Semmel
Top 20
User Caralec on HC went to Mark's presentation in Sydney and reported the following:
Yes I went.
same presentation as Bell Potter.
I had the opportunity to talk to Mark at some length after his session.
I have spoken to him in the past and he is the most approachable CEO I have ever met.
Gives you all the time in the world and his knowledge of the graphite industry and the broader issues is remarkable.
He is totally committed to Talga and long and short is the latest appeals regarding the Mine exploitation concession should be dealt with in the next couple of months (and expected to be rejected),
and, as per the December, update means they come into force immediately. (even if subsequent appeals to the Admin Court)
This opens up the opportunity to really move the project forward with (in my opinion ) a strategeic investor getting involved, off takes/projects especially in the tTalnode S1 area and full financing of the project in H2 of this year.
All the ducks are coming into line again (IMHO) with Europe recognising it has to deal with a very different world now.
Patience continues to be required (as it has been for so long) but delays have always been out of Talgas control.
I am quite happy to say “In Mark we (I) trust”, which I would never say about any other CEO.
GLTAH
Yes I went.
same presentation as Bell Potter.
I had the opportunity to talk to Mark at some length after his session.
I have spoken to him in the past and he is the most approachable CEO I have ever met.
Gives you all the time in the world and his knowledge of the graphite industry and the broader issues is remarkable.
He is totally committed to Talga and long and short is the latest appeals regarding the Mine exploitation concession should be dealt with in the next couple of months (and expected to be rejected),
and, as per the December, update means they come into force immediately. (even if subsequent appeals to the Admin Court)
This opens up the opportunity to really move the project forward with (in my opinion ) a strategeic investor getting involved, off takes/projects especially in the tTalnode S1 area and full financing of the project in H2 of this year.
All the ducks are coming into line again (IMHO) with Europe recognising it has to deal with a very different world now.
Patience continues to be required (as it has been for so long) but delays have always been out of Talgas control.
I am quite happy to say “In Mark we (I) trust”, which I would never say about any other CEO.
GLTAH
A constant topic for discussion here - the impending impact of solid state battery technology.
Car makers not seriously expecting it to be available at scale till at least 2030, and even then only higher end models cos likely more expensive still.
By far and away the biggest impediment to buying an EV for most people is PRICE, not range. So the market for battery technology we have now that can be scaled more affordably will be huge over the next decade.
Then there will be multiple generations of batteries made from the recycled components of the first generation - tick for Talga.
And by the time SS is becoming mainstream, MT has indicated that they have things they're working on for multiple generations of battery technology.
Car makers not seriously expecting it to be available at scale till at least 2030, and even then only higher end models cos likely more expensive still.
By far and away the biggest impediment to buying an EV for most people is PRICE, not range. So the market for battery technology we have now that can be scaled more affordably will be huge over the next decade.
Then there will be multiple generations of batteries made from the recycled components of the first generation - tick for Talga.
And by the time SS is becoming mainstream, MT has indicated that they have things they're working on for multiple generations of battery technology.
There's a Q relating to SSB's in the webinar which I felt MT covered well. Apparently it was a public holiday in WA yesterday so hopefully you'll have the recording soon.
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