TLG Discussion 2022

[Semmel]

If I were an offtake partner I'd want more certainty that the concession issue would be resolved. I agree that if the appeals are denied, it likely won't take another 18 months for that to happen, but offtake partners would be taking a risk that the appeal is upheld. I know the offtakes can be conditional but if the conditions aren't met, the offtake partner ends up short on graphite.

Customers are more sensible than waiting for the last shade of a an appeal to go away. Look at all the other projects that have offtake agreements without even the the environmental permit. If talga can't close a deal now, the concession won't help either. Now or never.

 

[anbuck]

Customers are more sensible than waiting for the last shade of a an appeal to go away. Look at all the other projects that have offtake agreements without even the the environmental permit. If talga can't close a deal now, the concession won't help either. Now or never.

I hope you're right and yes other producers have secured conditional offtakes, but I wonder if they had to take a cut on the price to account for the risk that the buyer was taking.

 

[DAH]

I hope you're right and yes other producers have secured conditional offtakes, but I wonder if they had to take a cut on the price to account for the risk that the buyer was taking.

Yep, that should usually the case where price is adjusted for risk or uncertainty.

But if demand is far greater than supply, like I feel we have in Talga's case (with only 19.5k TPA for stage 1), any customer wanting certainty is likely to miss out as others will be happy to take the risk. And what's the risk? Natura permit is in force, planning order to be sorted, FID being finalised, strategic project status surely confirmed soon, and on the back of strong public sentiment from the Swedish Government. How on earth would the SAC find grounds to run an appeal that changes anything.

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

 

[Pharvest]

Yep, that should usually the case where price is adjusted for risk or uncertainty.

But if demand is far greater than supply, like I feel we have in Talga's case (with only 19.5k TPA for stage 1), any customer wanting certainty is likely to miss out as others will be happy to take the risk. And what's the risk? Natura permit is in force, planning order to be sorted, FID being finalised, strategic project status surely confirmed soon, and on the back of strong public sentiment from the Swedish Government. How on earth would the SAC find grounds to run an appeal that changes anything.

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

This is exactly my thought too mate. We are going to be a flagship in the fight with China. I see things moving from the glacial pace of the past few years to something resembling that of an old digger off to the RSL for an arvo schooner on his Rascal mobility scooter. I nearly said light speed but cmon .. this is Europe, no one would take that statement seriously.