TLG Discussion 2022

[cosors]

"Press release from the Ministry of Climate and Business Affairs

Minister for Energy and Business Affairs Ebba Busch participates in the World Economic Forum in Davos​

Published January 21, 2025

The World Economic Forum 2025 will be held between January 20 and 24 and is a meeting place for companies, researchers and leaders from around the world to discuss global, regional and industrial issues.

- It is important to highlight Swedish interests in new nuclear power, innovation and AI. More and more countries are recognizing the need for new nuclear power. Reliable and fossil-free energy creates good conditions for innovation and competitiveness,” says Minister for Energy and Enterprise Ebba Busch.

This year's meeting will be held under the theme - Collaboration for the Intelligent Age. The program is focused on five thematic priorities, Rebuilding Trust, Reshaping Growth, Investing in People, Protecting the Planet and Industries in the Intelligent Age.

Ebba Busch will participate in panel discussions and workshops to discuss, among other things, how we strengthen the conditions for new innovations, digitization and AI, as well as the global expansion of nuclear power and the increased need for energy.

The availability of critical raw materials, artificial intelligence and the increased energy demand it brings, and the importance of trade and partnerships to drive the energy transition at the required pace and scale are also issues that will be discussed."

Energi- och näringsminister Ebba Busch deltar i World Economic Forum i Davos

World Economic Forum 2025 hålls mellan den 20 och 24 januari och är en mötesplats för företag, forskare och ledare från hela världen att diskutera...

www.regeringen.se

 

[Stares_into_Space]

When do we think there will be an announcement for building an anode refinery in America?

 

[Semmel]

After years of being dependent on the Swedish legal and government systems, its now again Talgas own actions that decide the future. Talga now has the ball in the hands to negotiate favorable (and timely!!!) offtake agreements. Lets see how we are doing. Notice that Mark did not comment on the Ann today. Not sure what to make of it, but its out of character.

Wonder what PIK is doing these days...

 

[anbuck]

After years of being dependent on the Swedish legal and government systems, its now again Talgas own actions that decide the future. Talga now has the ball in the hands to negotiate favorable (and timely!!!) offtake agreements. Lets see how we are doing. Notice that Mark did not comment on the Ann today. Not sure what to make of it, but its out of character.

Wonder what PIK is doing these days...

I thought we were still waiting on the concession appeal?

 

[Semmel]

I thought we were still waiting on the concession appeal?

True, we are waiting for it. However, the concession is needed once we want to dig stuff out. i.e. after the mine and refinary are build and ready to go. Thats 18 to 24 Months in the future. Plenty of time to resolve this. What we need now is offtakes and financing agreements to start building. Or lets say... after May 16 and I bet Kiruna will wait until the last day until they will finally issue the change, just to rub it in as much as possible.

 

[anbuck]

True, we are waiting for it. However, the concession is needed once we want to dig stuff out. i.e. after the mine and refinary are build and ready to go. Thats 18 to 24 Months in the future. Plenty of time to resolve this. What we need now is offtakes and financing agreements to start building. Or lets say... after May 16 and I bet Kiruna will wait until the last day until they will finally issue the change, just to rub it in as much as possible.

If I were an offtake partner I'd want more certainty that the concession issue would be resolved. I agree that if the appeals are denied, it likely won't take another 18 months for that to happen, but offtake partners would be taking a risk that the appeal is upheld. I know the offtakes can be conditional but if the conditions aren't met, the offtake partner ends up short on graphite.

 

[Semmel]

If I were an offtake partner I'd want more certainty that the concession issue would be resolved. I agree that if the appeals are denied, it likely won't take another 18 months for that to happen, but offtake partners would be taking a risk that the appeal is upheld. I know the offtakes can be conditional but if the conditions aren't met, the offtake partner ends up short on graphite.

Customers are more sensible than waiting for the last shade of a an appeal to go away. Look at all the other projects that have offtake agreements without even the the environmental permit. If talga can't close a deal now, the concession won't help either. Now or never.

 

[anbuck]

Customers are more sensible than waiting for the last shade of a an appeal to go away. Look at all the other projects that have offtake agreements without even the the environmental permit. If talga can't close a deal now, the concession won't help either. Now or never.

I hope you're right and yes other producers have secured conditional offtakes, but I wonder if they had to take a cut on the price to account for the risk that the buyer was taking.

 

[DAH]

I hope you're right and yes other producers have secured conditional offtakes, but I wonder if they had to take a cut on the price to account for the risk that the buyer was taking.

Yep, that should usually the case where price is adjusted for risk or uncertainty.

But if demand is far greater than supply, like I feel we have in Talga's case (with only 19.5k TPA for stage 1), any customer wanting certainty is likely to miss out as others will be happy to take the risk. And what's the risk? Natura permit is in force, planning order to be sorted, FID being finalised, strategic project status surely confirmed soon, and on the back of strong public sentiment from the Swedish Government. How on earth would the SAC find grounds to run an appeal that changes anything.

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

 

[Pharvest]

Yep, that should usually the case where price is adjusted for risk or uncertainty.

But if demand is far greater than supply, like I feel we have in Talga's case (with only 19.5k TPA for stage 1), any customer wanting certainty is likely to miss out as others will be happy to take the risk. And what's the risk? Natura permit is in force, planning order to be sorted, FID being finalised, strategic project status surely confirmed soon, and on the back of strong public sentiment from the Swedish Government. How on earth would the SAC find grounds to run an appeal that changes anything.

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

This is exactly my thought too mate. We are going to be a flagship in the fight with China. I see things moving from the glacial pace of the past few years to something resembling that of an old digger off to the RSL for an arvo schooner on his Rascal mobility scooter. I nearly said light speed but cmon .. this is Europe, no one would take that statement seriously.

 

[cosors]

As an aside, I'm hopeful the 19.5k TPA will be front loaded and we'll see a materially higher output initially whilst we await expansions.

This is exactly my thought too mate. We are going to be a flagship in the fight with China. I see things moving from the glacial pace of the past few years to something resembling that of an old digger off to the RSL for an arvo schooner on his Rascal mobility scooter. I nearly said light speed but cmon .. this is Europe, no one would take that statement seriously.

I would like to add that Europe is made up of nation states. Not all of them are the same. The policies from Brussels must be implemented by the nation states. My point is that this approval-unfriendly policy that we are all angry about was created by two parties that are not in the Swedish government today.

That said, have a nice holiday!

 

[Semmel]

I dem to be the only one here that does not believe the CRMA is going to make a difference in processing speed of the government. I would be happy to be proven wrong but everything already has highest priority and it still takes years. On top.. if kiruna sees it self being a colony of Sweden (what a ridiculous view point!!) then getting told what to do by Brussels will be seen as colonialism squared. We might get access to funding but speed...? I don't see it..

 

[cosors]

I dem to be the only one here that does not believe the CRMA is going to make a difference in processing speed of the government. I would be happy to be proven wrong but everything already has highest priority and it still takes years. On top.. if kiruna sees it self being a colony of Sweden (what a ridiculous view point!!) then getting told what to do by Brussels will be seen as colonialism squared. We might get access to funding but speed...? I don't see it..

I wouldn't take such a dim view of it. The Swedish approval process is being accelerated and we have already had the favour of benefiting from these initial measures twice and there are many more to come.
The portrayal of Kiruna as a colony is eco or socialist or eco-socialist and that's how it's spread in the media. These are partly hard socialist pages. Not everyone has this attitude and, like us, thinks it's rubbish. As I mentioned, there is a certain inflation of the wrong use of terms (see genocide at FF, Amnesty, UN or others). Times have become more shrill, outright lies, misinformation or as in this case the wrong term colony to polarise and influence to the maximum. Whoever shouts the loudest.

But what is much more important is the move of the government with the detailed plan and bypassing the municipality of Kiruna and that is the first case in decades. The legal expert from Lulea, who specialises in mining, predicts that this was only the beginning and that this bypass will probably be used even more in the future. In our case, the officials would probably have had (?) to re-familiarise themselves with the process, which has been forgotten.

 

[anbuck]

I dem to be the only one here that does not believe the CRMA is going to make a difference in processing speed of the government. I would be happy to be proven wrong but everything already has highest priority and it still takes years. On top.. if kiruna sees it self being a colony of Sweden (what a ridiculous view point!!) then getting told what to do by Brussels will be seen as colonialism squared. We might get access to funding but speed...? I don't see it..

I think it will speed things up because I think it will cause appeals for future permits to be moved to the front of the courts' queue.

 

[Semmel]

Given the latest quarterly report, we have 2.3 quarters of cash left in the bank. That was end of December. If a company gets below 2 quarters of cash, the ASX starts to ask uncomfortable questions. Meaning before the current quarter is over, we either get funding from a contract or we do another CR. If it's a CR, we need to go it latest mid of March, to give the process time to run it's course within the quarter.

We have about 1 months left to close a deal before we have to lose another 10%. I begin to be quite pessimistic about it. The promised breaking of the dam didn't happen. Not even the sound of cracks are audible in the dam. No whisper. No breadcrumbs.

If the share price would rise for any reason, talga would kill the momentum immediately with a CR, just to survive the year. There will be no positive outcome other than a contract with a customer.

I don't want to sound too alarming. The project is almost completely derisked in terms of permits. However, we lost any kind of local political support in the process if we ever had any. Only national and European interests have our back. Local press, local politics and who knows how much of the local population are against Talga.

The lack of national, European and global awareness of local groups is leaving me flabbergasted. None of their arguments make any sense. It's like my kid gets furious when I help building stuff in the sand pit. But making sense is not important in this age.

Sensible or not, the legal tools available to the antis is bleeding us out. With the drawn out process, the lack of funding options and the dependency on outside decisions for talga.. all this could easily drag us under. There is only so much a small company like Talga can sustain. I fear ( and that's probably not true) this could be the last VR that Talga is able to survive. We either make a deal or we are toast. Talga is riding on a knifes edge and it's not comfortable at moment.

 

[teilenswert]

I agree with this assessment almost completely, touche. Such statements by Mark, such as the announcement of a dam break, have unfortunately all too rarely materialised in the past.

But I have a question of understanding. Talga has probably hardly used any money in recent months to advance the mine or the anode factory itself. Nevertheless, the capital is melting away. Assuming we receive funding (prepayment by a customer, public subsidies), can't this only be used for the specific project development anyway? Or can it actually also be used to pay running costs? If the former, then an issue of new shares would be necessary either way - the difference would of course theoretically be a significantly higher share price in the capital increase, but first many would convert their options, which can still be exercised until September for 0.55 A$.

Am I making a mistake or have I got a comprehension problem, or is this more or less the case? Or do you mean by funding rather the entry of a strategic investor?

Surely these would also be suitable questions for the next investor webinar. But they will probably be ignored or avoided. The fact that Mark is canvassing a lot of trade fairs doesn't bode well...

 

[curiousmagpie]

We have about 1 months left to close a deal

imo if there was an imminent deal with an automaker about to burst that dam wall then the MD wouldn't be tweeting pleas for automakers to make deals helping to build new supply relationships

nothing is anywhere close to being agreed



Quarterly:
Talnode-Si: conspicuous by it's absence again. Not a word about it. 2 years ago they were shortlisting production sites and now it isn't even mentioned at all. Is it dead?
Expansion study: "work is ongoing" with no statement on timeline. It was supposed to be published last year. What's holding it up?


Talga is actually lucky they had the supreme court "hold up" because it has delayed accountability for the lack of progress across everything within their control. Without the SC there would have been no excuses for the lack of execution.

Nothing the company has done since mid 2024 has contradicted or disproved a single one of my legitimate concerns raised.

 

[Semmel]

I agree with this assessment almost completely, touche. Such statements by Mark, such as the announcement of a dam break, have unfortunately all too rarely materialised in the past.

But I have a question of understanding. Talga has probably hardly used any money in recent months to advance the mine or the anode factory itself. Nevertheless, the capital is melting away. Assuming we receive funding (prepayment by a customer, public subsidies), can't this only be used for the specific project development anyway? Or can it actually also be used to pay running costs? If the former, then an issue of new shares would be necessary either way - the difference would of course theoretically be a significantly higher share price in the capital increase, but first many would convert their options, which can still be exercised until September for 0.55 A$.

View attachment 77113

Am I making a mistake or have I got a comprehension problem, or is this more or less the case? Or do you mean by funding rather the entry of a strategic investor?

Surely these would also be suitable questions for the next investor webinar. But they will probably be ignored or avoided. The fact that Mark is canvassing a lot of trade fairs doesn't bode well...

View attachment 77114

I honestly dont know what they are doing with 2M in exploration and evaluation (presumably that is scoping the expansion) and 1.7M in development (which must be Vittanghi). The qualification plant runs at 300k a month, thats a lot. No idea how many people work there but they probably cant easily stop that. I also would have expected that they reduce these expenditures to a minimum, but its not what we see.

In any case, if they get an offtake and financing deal, they probably remove these line items from the out-of-pocket expenses. Also the sallery of people working on developing the mine could be put on that. Maybe they also get some other loans for keeping th elights on until they have revenue without doing a CR. In any canse, I assume options would become available (I have no experience with that).

You are also correct that if people were to exercise the options, Talga would get more money like in a CR. But for that to happen, the share price must materially exceed 55cts. However, this is largely out of control from Talgas side.

 

[Semmel]

imo if there was an imminent deal with an automaker about to burst that dam wall then the MD wouldn't be tweeting pleas for automakers to make deals helping to build new supply relationships

View attachment 77116


nothing is anywhere close to being agreed



Quarterly:
Talnode-Si: conspicuous by it's absence again. Not a word about it. 2 years ago they were shortlisting production sites and now it isn't even mentioned at all. Is it dead?
Expansion study: "work is ongoing" with no statement on timeline. It was supposed to be published last year. What's holding it up?


Talga is actually lucky they had the supreme court "hold up" because it has delayed accountability for the lack of progress across everything within their control. Without the SC there would have been no excuses for the lack of execution.

Nothing the company has done since mid 2024 has contradicted or disproved a single one of my legitimate concerns raised.

Well,, the honest thing is that we dont know. And Mark is absolutely right with his statement, indipendently of the deal situation. I dont think we can read much into this. On the other hand, we also dont have any information to the contrary. The last breadcrumb we got was that PIK traveled to Japan a few times in December. Since then, zilch. I also wonder what happens with Talnode-Si. Makes no sense to have it fall under the table like that.

On the Expansion study, there was a study published for multiple options. What else do you expect?

 

[BlackBeak]

Given the latest quarterly report, we have 2.3 quarters of cash left in the bank. That was end of December. If a company gets below 2 quarters of cash, the ASX starts to ask uncomfortable questions. Meaning before the current quarter is over, we either get funding from a contract or we do another CR. If it's a CR, we need to go it latest mid of March, to give the process time to run it's course within the quarter.

We have about 1 months left to close a deal before we have to lose another 10%. I begin to be quite pessimistic about it. The promised breaking of the dam didn't happen. Not even the sound of cracks are audible in the dam. No whisper. No breadcrumbs.

If the share price would rise for any reason, talga would kill the momentum immediately with a CR, just to survive the year. There will be no positive outcome other than a contract with a customer.

I don't want to sound too alarming. The project is almost completely derisked in terms of permits. However, we lost any kind of local political support in the process if we ever had any. Only national and European interests have our back. Local press, local politics and who knows how much of the local population are against Talga.

The lack of national, European and global awareness of local groups is leaving me flabbergasted. None of their arguments make any sense. It's like my kid gets furious when I help building stuff in the sand pit. But making sense is not important in this age.

Sensible or not, the legal tools available to the antis is bleeding us out. With the drawn out process, the lack of funding options and the dependency on outside decisions for talga.. all this could easily drag us under. There is only so much a small company like Talga can sustain. I fear ( and that's probably not true) this could be the last VR that Talga is able to survive. We either make a deal or we are toast. Talga is riding on a knifes edge and it's not comfortable at moment.

One saving grace might be the EIB grant. It’s due to be signed off 1st quarter this year, and part of that should be available to use. That could be used to explain away the less than 2 quarters of funding issue, because you now have a contract to receive funding.

It could only be used for certain things, but our existing cash could be used to fund others. At least to give us a bit more runway anyway.