TLG Ann: Talga presents at Rho Motion Seminar Series Singapore - 7th Feb 2023, 2:07pm

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TLG Ann: Talga presents at Rho Motion Seminar Series Singapore
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Date: 7th Feb 2023, 2:07pm

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Manual

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Transcript of MT presentation: (2 posts)

Thank you, JPMorgan, for hosting this event and thank you to all the talented staff at rho motion who have also put on a very valuable process. I promise, I can make you a promise, not to show you many graphs - maybe only one which is our share price. I'm also going to talk about - a retraction now- I like sodium, I like the niobium, I like all of the technologies we have heard about today. {They} are all, no doubt, valuable and are going through a growth process. The market is very big, and it's growing superfast but I’m here representing what used to be the dinosaur of industry, which is graphite. That's the thing you have heard everyone today say is no good; I’ll maybe point out some ways that it could be better than people think, if you do it in a modern way.

As the great Gordon Gekko once said from Wall Street: “Graphite is good”. I think that's what he said. That's the way I heard it anyway, for want of a better word: graphite is good.

1677396919713.png




And so, we are an ASX listed our public company; I founded the company about 13 years now, and 12 years ago we looked at the lithium-ion battery supply chain and recognised that graphite was not really being done outside China. The supply chain was extremely fractured, and there was room for a new entrant to go somewhere else in the world outside of Asia and start producing our anode material from graphite. We found this wonderful deposit of very special graphite with very small flakes, which is unlike anything else in the usual lithium battery industry in that instead of big flakes, {and} making them smaller. We found a deposit with all little flakes that are already the {right} size for the battery. It's very, very high grade and so we started working on getting that out, and today we make anodes out of it for lithium-ion batteries - current technology and new technology materials as well. So, we are differentiated by {being}:



  • owning our own mines,
  • owning our own process technology, and
  • producing fully coated anode products, and also
  • next-generation materials like silicon, which are mixed with graphite, and we’ve
  • even done some work with solid-state materials which are mixed with graphite {and},


so we are also extremely sustainable, as I'll show you later on.

1677396935177.png




Our locations Our corporate offices in Perth, Australia, but our operations are mostly in Europe. We have the mineral resources in the North of Sweden, and we have a technology centre in Cambridge, and we have our processing metallurgical facility in Germany, which is in the heart of a lot of battery developments in Europe. And we certainly see ourselves as customer focused.

1677396948393.png


So rather than pushing technologies that we just like for the sake of it. We are very much integrated with what our customers want ie. what they want, not 100% higher energy density they may want 20% higher or 10% higher and it's all about cost. So we very, very practical in our outlook and very much the company is founded on making sure that we have the most innovative, but also most sustainable, products.

1677396961249.png


This is what's happening in Europe at the moment: huge amount of battery makers many from, of course the Asia regions, which until now, were the only places really making a lot of batteries, and then of course it spread into North America and now spreading to Europe as well. Europe is actually growing very fast. You have 800 million people in this picture here, all buying EVs now like crazy and also looking for home storage and other ESS type solutions as well. So we are very well located.

1677396979890.png


Fundamental to our decision to be in Sweden is the access to low-cost and green power. So 100% of our operations, {they} are powered by hydro. They haven't had a power outage since 1979 - I believe {that] was the Iran oil crisis, something like that. Down south, they have a lot of wind, and also nuclear.

The other good thing about being in a location like Sweden is you can direct-drive your material to your customers in Europe, so if someone has a factory - they're making batteries in Germany - they don't have to wait for 30 days shipping, {or} having any problems along the way. We can drive within 24 to 48 hours. We can drive a truck, or a railcar, down to their facility and…

Because our ore is particularly high grade at the mine, we have extremely high amounts of anode we produce per ton. So its extremely efficient, and Hitachi’s life-cycle assessment shows emissions of CO2, that's about 20 times less than the material that is currently in your laptops and your phones in this room today - the way they have been made. This is very useful to a car manufacturer, because in this continued era of going towards Net Zero, the graphite represents, takes up, the volume of half the active materials in the battery. There’s about 10 times more graphite in a battery than there is lithium, actually, in volume terms. So if you can have really low CO2 graphite, that comes all the way through the supply chain of your EV, you end up with low CO2, it really helps your budget, to try keeping the drive towards net zero, so…

Having really high grade deposit, which has got very high efficiency and runs on green power and doesn't need shipping, leads you to probably, the lowest CO2 product of battery that you can land in the world that we are aware of.

1677396997779.png


Now this, I will argue is sort of a roadmap rather than a chart so I’m trying to keep my promise, but this is just to show that our approach is to be vertically integrated to capture all the margins of the entire supply chain and increase control and security of it. On the left, we mine material, we also take materials from recycling - we have process technology for both of those, {and] we refine the graphite to over 99.95% battery type purity. We coat it, we shape it and its ready to go to a battery customer. Any material that comes out of that as a by-product, something that doesn't go into a battery, we actually turn into graphene which is ultra-thin graphite, the wonder material, but it certainly does do different things to graphite - if you make it the right way- and what we do is we mix it in with silicon to make silicon anodes for batteries and also conductive additives for cathodes and we also then make additives that can go into things like concrete and plastic. So again, it's all about resource efficiency and it's all about capturing all the margins, which is what you want to do in a modern business.

1677397010501.png


Our leading coated graphite product is called Talnode®-C. It's quite a new and innovative form of graphite, which to some of you in this room might sound a bit silly: {viz,} that graphite is this dirty old stuff lying around, you buy cheaply from China or from Africa.

What we have done is taken a new approach. The last 40 years since lithium-ion batteries evolved, the form of the anode, being the graphite. It was sort of accidental how it was made and then refined. What we did, was strip the fundamentals back, and we make these ultrafine, smaller particles that are natural -so they have lower CO2- but we’re able to control the surface area, while having them as smaller particles, so we can get superfast charge rates 10C, we’ve had material do 20C successfully, and it's very, very good, actually at low temperatures.

So to get back to the fire situation, when it comes to lithium iron plating, a lot of problems around lithium-ion battery safety is often in cold temperatures, not hot, because the cold is when you get the lithium metal dendrites growing, - there's some information out there about that.

Its already in a qualification process with automotives, its already at a B stage with many large groups and C stage with others, so it's going into commercial contracts now.

And I’d just like to mention actually in our room today, our former chief scientist Dr Claudia Capiglia. I just wanted to say hi to Claudia because he was massive in helping advance this project from his experience, in Japan for over 20 years in the industry

This has been a champion product of his, as well as ours.

1677397035913.png


On the silicon side, we like to keep a foot in the next generation products as well. So our team, the technology team, have come up with a 50% silicon product which is mixed with graphite and graphene. The roadmap we’re seeing coming from customers are that they don't necessarily want 5 times the energy density- because it's all about cost and it's about longevity- they just might want 20, 30, 40% more. So this product produces about 5 times more energy density than your battery today, but what they'll do is they’ll water it down.

So we will supply that powder and they'll dilute it and add it into their existing supply chains and dilute it down to what they want. So that seems to be where things are going.

Critically we use machinery that can scale up, so this is not small stuff. This is… we have to be in a position where in the future you doing hundreds of thousands to millions of tons of anode and we are doing that very, very successfully. We’ve just opened in a pilot plant in Germany, doing that as the next level of scale up and…

1677397051013.png


We also are producing conductive additives for cathodes- which we haven't talked about much in the past but, you may not realise that about 3% of your cathode is carbon black or carbon nanotubes; and these are in there to help modify that the performance of the material. The problem is carbon nanotubes have got quite a high cost and they not that CO2 friendly (the way they made), likewise for carbon black, so we have come up with a new ultrafine version of graphite. This stuff is like sub 5µm, down around 2µm or smaller but specially shaped and designed so that it can replace carbon black or CNTs at a lower price and allow you to then stack more active material in so instead of 3% additive level, you’ll have 1% additive - the extra 2% room can now be active material that makes a car go longer or your phone last longer.

1677397070744.png


Importantly for us what we're doing is really putting…. what is currently this very disparate supply chain around the world: where we've got mines in one continent, and shaping and purification downstream, processing in another continent , and another continent doing the coatings in the final product before it goes to the customer, which will often then ship those batteries back to the original place.

To us that's crazy. So, what we have done is: we do all the mining, we do all that process all the way through to the final product. So, when it comes to Europe, we can {sort of} encapsulate that entire supply chain: very efficient, very safe, very controlled, very secure. It is not liable to the disruptions you get with world trade, as we’ve seen over the last couple of years; so that's another outstanding benefit.

<continued on next post>
 
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Transcript of MT presentation: (3 posts in total to fit message limit)

Thank you, JPMorgan, for hosting this event and thank you to all the talented staff at rho motion who have also put on a very valuable process. I promise, I can make you a promise, not to show you many graphs - maybe only one which is our share price. I'm also going to talk about - a retraction now- I like sodium, I like the niobium, I like all of the technologies we have heard about today. {They} are all, no doubt, valuable and are going through a growth process. The market is very big, and it's growing superfast but I’m here representing what used to be the dinosaur of industry, which is graphite. That's the thing you have heard everyone today say is no good; I’ll maybe point out some ways that it could be better than people think, if you do it in a modern way.

As the great Gordon Gekko once said from Wall Street: “Graphite is good”. I think that's what he said. That's the way I heard it anyway, for want of a better word: graphite is good.

View attachment 30669



And so, we are an ASX listed our public company; I founded the company about 13 years now, and 12 years ago we looked at the lithium-ion battery supply chain and recognised that graphite was not really being done outside China. The supply chain was extremely fractured, and there was room for a new entrant to go somewhere else in the world outside of Asia and start producing our anode material from graphite. We found this wonderful deposit of very special graphite with very small flakes, which is unlike anything else in the usual lithium battery industry in that instead of big flakes, {and} making them smaller. We found a deposit with all little flakes that are already the {right} size for the battery. It's very, very high grade and so we started working on getting that out, and today we make anodes out of it for lithium-ion batteries - current technology and new technology materials as well. So, we are differentiated by {being}:



  • owning our own mines,
  • owning our own process technology, and
  • producing fully coated anode products, and also
  • next-generation materials like silicon, which are mixed with graphite, and we’ve
  • even done some work with solid-state materials which are mixed with graphite {and},


so we are also extremely sustainable, as I'll show you later on.

View attachment 30670



Our locations Our corporate offices in Perth, Australia, but our operations are mostly in Europe. We have the mineral resources in the North of Sweden, and we have a technology centre in Cambridge, and we have our processing metallurgical facility in Germany, which is in the heart of a lot of battery developments in Europe. And we certainly see ourselves as customer focused.

View attachment 30671

So rather than pushing technologies that we just like for the sake of it. We are very much integrated with what our customers want ie. what they want, not 100% higher energy density they may want 20% higher or 10% higher and it's all about cost. So we very, very practical in our outlook and very much the company is founded on making sure that we have the most innovative, but also most sustainable, products.

View attachment 30672

This is what's happening in Europe at the moment: huge amount of battery makers many from, of course the Asia regions, which until now, were the only places really making a lot of batteries, and then of course it spread into North America and now spreading to Europe as well. Europe is actually growing very fast. You have 800 million people in this picture here, all buying EVs now like crazy and also looking for home storage and other ESS type solutions as well. So we are very well located.

View attachment 30673

Fundamental to our decision to be in Sweden is the access to low-cost and green power. So 100% of our operations, {they} are powered by hydro. They haven't had a power outage since 1979 - I believe {that] was the Iran oil crisis, something like that. Down south, they have a lot of wind, and also nuclear.

The other good thing about being in a location like Sweden is you can direct-drive your material to your customers in Europe, so if someone has a factory - they're making batteries in Germany - they don't have to wait for 30 days shipping, {or} having any problems along the way. We can drive within 24 to 48 hours. We can drive a truck, or a railcar, down to their facility and…

Because our ore is particularly high grade at the mine, we have extremely high amounts of anode we produce per ton. So its extremely efficient, and Hitachi’s life-cycle assessment shows emissions of CO2, that's about 20 times less than the material that is currently in your laptops and your phones in this room today - the way they have been made. This is very useful to a car manufacturer, because in this continued era of going towards Net Zero, the graphite represents, takes up, the volume of half the active materials in the battery. There’s about 10 times more graphite in a battery than there is lithium, actually, in volume terms. So if you can have really low CO2 graphite, that comes all the way through the supply chain of your EV, you end up with low CO2, it really helps your budget, to try keeping the drive towards net zero, so…

Having really high grade deposit, which has got very high efficiency and runs on green power and doesn't need shipping, leads you to probably, the lowest CO2 product of battery that you can land in the world that we are aware of.

View attachment 30674

Now this, I will argue is sort of a roadmap rather than a chart so I’m trying to keep my promise, but this is just to show that our approach is to be vertically integrated to capture all the margins of the entire supply chain and increase control and security of it. On the left, we mine material, we also take materials from recycling - we have process technology for both of those, {and] we refine the graphite to over 99.95% battery type purity. We coat it, we shape it and its ready to go to a battery customer. Any material that comes out of that as a by-product, something that doesn't go into a battery, we actually turn into graphene which is ultra-thin graphite, the wonder material, but it certainly does do different things to graphite - if you make it the right way- and what we do is we mix it in with silicon to make silicon anodes for batteries and also conductive additives for cathodes and we also then make additives that can go into things like concrete and plastic. So again, it's all about resource efficiency and it's all about capturing all the margins, which is what you want to do in a modern business.

View attachment 30675

Our leading coated graphite product is called Talnode®-C. It's quite a new and innovative form of graphite, which to some of you in this room might sound a bit silly: {viz,} that graphite is this dirty old stuff lying around, you buy cheaply from China or from Africa.

What we have done is taken a new approach. The last 40 years since lithium-ion batteries evolved, the form of the anode, being the graphite. It was sort of accidental how it was made and then refined. What we did, was strip the fundamentals back, and we make these ultrafine, smaller particles that are natural -so they have lower CO2- but we’re able to control the surface area, while having them as smaller particles, so we can get superfast charge rates 10C, we’ve had material do 20C successfully, and it's very, very good, actually at low temperatures.

So to get back to the fire situation, when it comes to lithium iron plating, a lot of problems around lithium-ion battery safety is often in cold temperatures, not hot, because the cold is when you get the lithium metal dendrites growing, - there's some information out there about that.

Its already in a qualification process with automotives, its already at a B stage with many large groups and C stage with others, so it's going into commercial contracts now.

And I’d just like to mention actually in our room today, our former chief scientist Dr Claudia Capiglia. I just wanted to say hi to Claudia because he was massive in helping advance this project from his experience, in Japan for over 20 years in the industry

This has been a champion product of his, as well as ours.

View attachment 30676

On the silicon side, we like to keep a foot in the next generation products as well. So our team, the technology team, have come up with a 50% silicon product which is mixed with graphite and graphene. The roadmap we’re seeing coming from customers are that they don't necessarily want 5 times the energy density- because it's all about cost and it's about longevity- they just might want 20, 30, 40% more. So this product produces about 5 times more energy density than your battery today, but what they'll do is they’ll water it down.

So we will supply that powder and they'll dilute it and add it into their existing supply chains and dilute it down to what they want. So that seems to be where things are going.

Critically we use machinery that can scale up, so this is not small stuff. This is… we have to be in a position where in the future you doing hundreds of thousands to millions of tons of anode and we are doing that very, very successfully. We’ve just opened in a pilot plant in Germany, doing that as the next level of scale up and…

View attachment 30677

We also are producing conductive additives for cathodes- which we haven't talked about much in the past but, you may not realise that about 3% of your cathode is carbon black or carbon nanotubes; and these are in there to help modify that the performance of the material. The problem is carbon nanotubes have got quite a high cost and they not that CO2 friendly (the way they made), likewise for carbon black, so we have come up with a new ultrafine version of graphite. This stuff is like sub 5µm, down around 2µm or smaller but specially shaped and designed so that it can replace carbon black or CNTs at a lower price and allow you to then stack more active material in so instead of 3% additive level, you’ll have 1% additive - the extra 2% room can now be active material that makes a car go longer or your phone last longer.

View attachment 30678

Importantly for us what we're doing is really putting…. what is currently this very disparate supply chain around the world: where we've got mines in one continent, and shaping and purification downstream, processing in another continent , and another continent doing the coatings in the final product before it goes to the customer, which will often then ship those batteries back to the original place.

To us that's crazy. So, what we have done is: we do all the mining, we do all that process all the way through to the final product. So, when it comes to Europe, we can {sort of} encapsulate that entire supply chain: very efficient, very safe, very controlled, very secure. It is not liable to the disruptions you get with world trade, as we’ve seen over the last couple of years; so that's another outstanding benefit.

<continued on next post>

1677397305977.png

So our first project that we are proposing is 100,000 tons pa mine and concentrator at Vittangi in North Sweden and just down the road we are building an anode refinery which does the purification, shaping and coatings. The whole thing, all in one company and all in one area, all running on 100% sustainable power. This throws off about $200M pa in cash, and …

1677397328933.png


We have plans to expand that by about 5 times to over 100,000 tons of anode production {pa}, which is about 80 GW hours of anodes {pa}, but we have currently demand from automotives, basically all EV customers, for in excess of 1000% of our planned production of Stage 1, so we are reviewing just how we should scale this up in future- but it's looking very necessary.

Today you are in a world where the global natural graphite market is about 1 million tons, and the forecasts are that anode has to reach 10 million tonnes in the next 7 years, so you're looking at a 500% increase in the entire globe supply, just in the next 7 years.

Now, this is the point - to go back to the current technology versus new technology - Everyone says, “but Mark, graphite will be replaced by lithium metal and sodium and neobium and other things”, but the market is growing faster and has to be at the low{est} price point - so that graphite volumes are still there. So, new materials will come in as wedges of growth into that but they can't replace it, they won't replace it entirely, possibly ever, but it's probably going to be decades in the making. The economics of this, the safety, and the performance of newly made materials can be just as good or better than what you're used to. And that's good enough, and that you're seeing EV sales now increase.

So the future of graphite is looking very good.

1677397340002.png


We have built Europe's first coated anode plant. We have our in-house powder battery laboratory there as well. This is where we've been proving up our process and what we do.

1677397350183.png


As you can see there, it's nice bit of kit and, yes, we've got a great team of people, about 60 staff now, and we are expecting to start building the commercial scale plant doing 15 GW hours of anode later on this year so this is all current stuff. This plant is currently spitting out big samples to EV customers right now - tonnage scale samples.

1677397364280.png


We have our offtake agreements arising with ACC which is Mercedes and the Stellantis group. So you might recognise some of the brands here, and also Verkor who are a major supplier to Renault, so mostly European looking customers at the moment, but of course these are just the public ones. Under nondisclosure, we have our tens and tens of programs running with almost all major automotives that are doing something in Europe or North America. {In particular}, not so much focusing on coming back into Asia yet.

1677397373252.png


And because we are essentially a technology company that owns our own mines, {we span},… we are very well networked into the European battery alliance and the Batteries Europe situation, but also customers that reach outside batteries into the technology of materials, groups like Bosch and Bentley, Jaguar, Land Rover, et cetera you can see some of them here so it's technology. It's production, all sort of together…

1677397385730.png


A great team of people which I invite you to go look at the background of some of our people in automotive and in Scandinavia. Scandinavian business.

1677397393829.png


This is the final graph which is our share price, just to show that we are still alive. Last year was … I think that we all recognise was pretty tough … and now actually on the way back up. We just exceeded our one year high and were still going and importantly, I just want to show you, about a 500-600 million dollar market CAPEX company at the moment.

And I'm the 2nd largest shareholder, so I have skin in the game, still after 13 years, so I’ll leave it there; I just wanted to be very quick and brief, very happy to take as many questions as you have time for. Thank you.

<See next post for questions>
 
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Questions put to MT: (3rd post)


You mentioned a lot of interesting new products earlier, including a 50% silicone content product, could you give us more colour on that, when… and is that before dilution or after, because the batteries we see in cars today are at best less than 10% silicone content?



Its not designed to be used at 50, you could, but it’ll have a relatively short… wont have the cycle life you know 3000 cycles, although it's pretty good for what it is. it's been pulling out at 50%. Its designed to be.. hangs together in a way that when you blend it into your existing graphite(s) you boost energy with silicon; the first bits of silicon you add, increase the density the most. Then it starts flattening out, so when you add more than 50%, say if you have 60 or 70, it doesn’t add another 10 or 20% energy. So when you look along a curve around 50%, you've got most of your bang for your buck. And, of course, when you add something like silicon to graphite its more expensive, it is more difficult to make and its slightly more expensive to work with.

So to keep it cheap, you want the lowest amount you can, that matches the profile of the energy you want, and so if we give them a 50% product, they can blend that down. So our standard graphite does about 360 -365 mA hours per gram energy density, so you could if you want 420, 450 or 500 mA hours, so that's up to around say 50% more energy density than your got currently in your cars and your phones, you would just sprinkle maybe 10% of this material in, and so then it dilutes out.

It's quite advanced; I would say, we’re already in Gen 2 and the pilot plant is being commissioned now in Germany – we will give some updates on that soon - we’ve been doing feasibilities and development work for quite a while and I personally would expect that we could be looking at commercial production facilities by the end of next year, or heading into the year after that, so not too far away, and I would expect that the industry - if you look at the amount of silicon being used as additives into graphite now that the future is for that - is in the tens to hundreds of thousands of tonnes per year, at a cost point which is on an energy density basis, which is not that far off graphite.



A followup question (from other speaker)… How much does silicone cost today?



Depends, there are two main pathways to making silicon: one is to use chemicals like Silane, either as a gas or liquid and play around with that (relatively expensive)and the other way, take primary silicone. Some people use silicon dioxide (silica), but if you can use silicon the metal, you can just buy it in some sort of purified state and grind down to whatever size you want. When you get the size down to about 150 nm, it very much makes talcum powder look like coarse beach sand. This is so fine, that it flows like water almost, its half floating, then it doesn't suffer the expansion problem. So the trick is to come up with the bigger the particle, the cheaper it will be because it adds less energy to make it, and if you make it from solids rather than liquids and gases you'll get also more efficiencies and also its the lower cost way, but the trick is in making the particle.

Then of course, once you’re outside the lab - and actually there’s a really good article on this in the back of the magazine on your tables - I noticed on the last page - is an article by one of the rho motion staff - which is then you move to the next stages where new technologies usually fall over, which is you go through the commercial calendaring process.

Most silicon particles will collapse under the pressure so {they'll}… that you make this very complex form and it looks great and it can suck hundreds of millions of dollars of investor money and will be backed over billions of dollars, and not pointing the finger at anyone - that's I would do it if that's all I had.

But then when they give it to a commercial customer and they squeeze it the way that their machinery actually works, not in the lab but on the line and they go “the results aren’t the same!” Why is that? That is because the pressure on the particle - if its too complex, {so} - has to be tough enough to survive. And that's where the reality comes in, from the new technologies, right, to production. That's the world we try and live in. Our people have worked in commercial settings and so they understand; we start from those challenges: knowing that's where the material is heading.

And so we live in the world of the practical - try to make innovative improvements but very practical commercially, to really be in the market soon, and getting good increases but not huge differences in economics...

With what you're doing {the other speaker}, which is going to be, I think, a revolution in a lot of markets and also like niobium and the other things we’ve heard about too, which are super performing but {at} what price point can they reach, where it's useful for the customer, which is not the person driving the car, it's actually the person who’s making the car and paying for it.



I have a question for you Mark, you know for your traditional graphite anode business could you share first your costs vs what most people usually source from China, vs your Chinese peers as well as Korean…, and also have you seen any change in your orders after the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came out, so originally how many tonnes would you have been in 2025, now what are you looking at?



The second question is a bit nicer to talk about than the first one.

Being a public company, we’ve had to publish the results of feasibility studies, which is pretty bad to have to publish the cost of your product {and so that}, but that's upon public record that the cost of our coated anode production is under $3000 per tonne under $3 a kilo for coated anode material. That's cash cost, that’s operating costs which is competitive, I would say, with similar quality materials.

Anode graphite / anode materials range very broadly from very low quality natural and high-quality natural and low quality synthetic and high-quality synthetic and the price can differ by as much as 300% -even within that range. So it really depends on what you're making for whom and what sort of deals there are to be done, but certainly we believe that by owning all of the supply chain from the mine to the coated product we can be competitive with Asian material, particularly in Europe where they are introducing battery passport legislation, CO2 tariffs and things like that and also then of course you got your shipping added on, so most of the costs you see published are F.O.B. China, they are not landed at someone's factory in Germany, for example, or Poland or Hungary.

So I think we are very competitive because the entire thing has been set up to be so, and we own the largest graphite resources in all of Europe.

And now on the 2nd part: the IRA has caused Europe to react faster to come up with their own critical raw material strategy and a net zero sort of response, so essentially over the next few months we can get details of a European version of the IRA and I think Adam's presentation had a slide on this on the highlights of what is to be expected, but it's gonna be a revolution.

I'm hoping they totally overdo it and just rain money down upon us all, to build facilities and things faster in Europe, but frankly we can do it if they just, sort of, in an analyst’ shrugged way, get out of the way. If they just speed up the permitting, as Adam mentioned, then we can probably do a lot of the rest, but you’re competing against companies that are now getting free chunks of hundreds of millions of dollars in America.

What it has driven is more American companies coming to us looking for non-Asian base supply chain, so it's not so much the promotion of Europe as the constriction of Chinese material being in the electric vehicles going into the American market, and so then that's led them to look at free trade agreement countries like Australia but also to look at Europe {for} potential exports back into North America. So we’ve had a lot of new customers that aren’t European-based, based in North America, wanting us to come there and do things there as well.



Could I just follow up…your new North American customers are they battery cell companies or OEMs?



Both.



And also my original question, 2025, originally like 2 years ago, how many tonnes were you be looking at, and today, how many tonnes will you be targeting? Due to an Uptick in sales and all that?




To be honest when we designed our first stage of the project we thought that producing 15 GW hours of anode would be a nice chunk to not be too… flood the market, and of course we {now} have demand in Europe alone heading towards 850 GW worth of anode. So even though we own probably the largest anode production capability in Europe. We still have plans for probably less than 3% of the market. Its just grown a lot faster and bigger than we modified, but also its a permitting time process. The problem is, if it takes you 5 to 8 years to permit things like mines and factories, then by the time you've got it done, the markets grown on again, so you have to leap ahead and promote larger things.

I can see in the future - someone published some research - where they posited if Talga shifted all the way to about 800,000 tons of anode per year that that would fit in our resource base, and I'm not confirming that, but that's certainly the scale of things that are possible, just there {in Europe}, without spreading the technology to other countries and doing the downstream processing in other continents.



My name is our Timothy this one is for Mark and Talga, I think there are a lot of emerging technologies in this room right, and Mark obviously you've navigated balancing funding, off-take, qualification, test work, permitting, all of that, to be now commercial and shipping to customers, obviously that’s the one in a million type. It's a good team, It is good product, its good supply chain, it's sometimes a bit of luck, but what was your advice to people developing new technologies and needing to balance all about permitting, funding, not giving way too much offtake?



It helps a lot to get inside the mind of your customer really early, to truly understand the production processes involved. Not many people working on batteries have actually ever been on a battery production line. They're not allowed to. Ive been to some of the world's largest battery makers and the scientists you work with have never been on the production floor, so they don't understand how humidity affects things or pressure or… so it just helps a lot, I think, to understand what are real limitations, but if you're a technology start-up, in a way, I think it's like science. Its very much like should you do pure science without thinking of commerciality, because if you start from the commercial end, will you end up doing the exciting science, right, and so there should be a balance and that if you think there's gonna be a commercial future, you should get real about commercial things early, but, if you’re happy just to do the science, and you can get out and hand the thing on to someone else, well what you care? You just gonna develop the tech.

I think the problem the battery world has got at the moment is that the exciting tech gets picked up by the media and the hype of it drags investment capital away from realistic, practical, needed things; things that will not only affect the cleanliness of your battery but the costs of your EV or your scooter or whatever. So the rate of electrification is, in my opinion, getting slowed down by the inefficient placement of capital into technologies that are just hopelessly uncommercial - and a lot of people in our industry, we know what isn't gonna work, like just never work, on the fundamentals- but should they stop doing the science of that, probably not. And it's just our opinion that it won't work. Could it work well maybe, but they're the things that suck billions and billions of dollars away from someone trying to build something that is gonna really have a serious impact in the short term, but because it's a little more boring, it's a bit more of a struggle. So, obviously, that sounds like a personal complaint of mine, which may be why you brought it up, because you could tell from my face that this is the way of the world.

But other people have been publishing on this recently, a really good technical paper was published the other day actually by someone that works for rho motion Orico and James Frith. They lay this out in a technical paper published in Nature and it is exactly that: The misallocation of capital into hype-driven technologies is actually slowing down the electrification of the world, which is a bad thing.

So that's why I objectively think it's a bad thing. I love science, no limit to exploration, everyone should do what they passionately believe in, but at some point, it has to be made physically real. There is no point doing something that can only be produced in a -80°C dry room where robots would have to go in to grease the nipples on the rollers and things like that, or the fundamentals of shipping materials around the world, that if you look at the whole production process of some of these technologies, you can see barriers that make them hopelessly uneconomic.

If you go back a few years to Lithium air technology. Almost everything actually discussed in this room has actually been known about for over 40 years. That the test work on lithium metal - actually the beginnings of lithium ion were in lithium metal, for example. But the problem has always been the economics and that compounding problems with commercialisation, and it doesn't mean that they ever get solved like lithium air for example, now it could be 50 years, 10 years, 5 years -you don't know- but it was the hottest thing in the world, 10-15 years ago, and everyone was investing millions and millions into it; millions of PhD's; but it didn't happen because it just can't commercially make it - physically make it.

So is that a process humanity has to go through? Maybe, but maybe we could do better!
 
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Affenhorst

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I can see in the future - someone published some research - where they posited if Talga shifted all the way to about 800,000 tons of anode per year that that would fit in our resource base, and I'm not confirming that, but that's certainly the scale of things that are possible, just there {in Europe}, without spreading the technology to other countries and doing the downstream processing in other continents.
This is the scale that MT is envisioning... for the local part :cool:
 
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Semmel

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Thank you @Manual, that looks like quite a substantial amount of work! Very important too, as Rho Motion tends to depublish videos after some weeks and we lose the reference. This will come in very handy! 1000 thanks to you!
 
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cosors

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@Manual
I also thank you very much for all the work!
 
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Manual

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This is the scale that MT is envisioning... for the local part :cool:
yes indeed @attenhorst , this part (and others) stood out especially significant or new detail coming as it did from MT.

thanks @Semmel and @cosors. Being the super research sleuth among us, cosors, (or anyone else??) have you had any success finding the actual research paper MT refers to here regarding the 800,000 tonne anode per year? The Frith paper was easy to find but not this one…
 
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yes indeed @attenhorst , this part (and others) stood out especially significant or new detail coming as it did from MT.

thanks @Semmel and @cosors. Being the super research sleuth among us, cosors, (or anyone else??) have you had any success finding the actual research paper MT refers to here regarding the 800,000 tonne anode per year? The Frith paper was easy to find but not this one…
You should find it in here (Euroz Hartley):
 
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cosors

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yes indeed @attenhorst , this part (and others) stood out especially significant or new detail coming as it did from MT.

thanks @Semmel and @cosors. Being the super research sleuth among us, cosors, (or anyone else??) have you had any success finding the actual research paper MT refers to here regarding the 800,000 tonne anode per year? The Frith paper was easy to find but not this one…
I don't think he meant this?
"Europe is predicted to need 800,000 tonnes"
https://thestockexchange.com.au/threads/tlg-ann-europes-first-li-ion-battery-anode-plant-commissioned-31st-mar-2022-8-20am.23653/post-40539
I don't know what he is referring to in the interview. But I would already be satisfied with the small bone instead of 19.5ktpa then just 195ktpa - LoL
Don't make the horses shy. The Sameby fall down dead when they read this.)
But maybe Semmel knows about the unknown?
 

Semmel

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Being a public company, we’ve had to publish the results of feasibility studies, which is pretty bad to have to publish the cost of your product {and so that}, but that's upon public record that the cost of our coated anode production is under $3000 per tonne under $3 a kilo for coated anode material. That's cash cost, that’s operating costs which is competitive, I would say, with similar quality materials.

I bet the statement above is one of the reasons why negotiations for offtakes might be stalling. If the customers know your production cost, they have a HUGE leaver to try to push the sell price of your product. They might not want to pay market price, which I can think of being a big hurdle in trying to make a contract close. Imagine the customer demanding no more than for example $5000 per tone, because they say thats enough of a premium for Talga, even if the market price might be $12000 for a similar quality product. Anyway, thats just a thought. I hope we get near full market price. Especially with our green credentials.
 
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TentCity

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I bet the statement above is one of the reasons why negotiations for offtakes might be stalling. If the customers know your production cost, they have a HUGE leaver to try to push the sell price of your product. They might not want to pay market price, which I can think of being a big hurdle in trying to make a contract close. Imagine the customer demanding no more than for example $5000 per tone, because they say thats enough of a premium for Talga, even if the market price might be $12000 for a similar quality product. Anyway, thats just a thought. I hope we get near full market price. Especially with our green credentials.
I agree and have thought this for some time.

Many flippant remarks on HC that Mark is a lousy negotiator - but I think this is exactly why it is taking longer as the OEMs are trying to cut costs wherever possible and Mark is holding out.

In the newly created CRMA & NZA - incentivising the ‘buy local’ aspect, Talga’s low carbon emission intensity & possible growing shortages of PSG/anodes may force their hand to pay market prices. We’ll just have to see who blinks first!
 
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anbuck

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That doesn't sound like an argument that any professional would make to me. In negotiating it's all about what each party is willing to pay/sell for. The actual cost of anything has no bearing on it. If that we're ACC's argument, then Mark would just say no and ACC would either walk or they would change their offer.
 
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