TLG Ann: Talga presents at Euroz Hartleys EV Anode & Graphite Forum - 31st Jan 2023, 2:58pm

[annb0t]

TLG Ann: Talga presents at Euroz Hartleys EV Anode & Graphite Forum
Price Sensitive: N
Date: 31st Jan 2023, 2:58pm

>>> Read announcement: Google: TLG Market Announcements

 

[Diogenese]

"is securing" reads very positively:

It's good to see Mark's Tesla making an appearance at the big occasions:

 

[TentCity]

This presentation is the other likely reason for the volume spike this morning. A few attendees must have liked what they heard from MT.

 

[cosors]

"is securing" reads very positively:

View attachment 28328

It's good to see Mark's Tesla making an appearance at the big occasions:
View attachment 28329

Ebba looks really cheerful and happy.

 

[JNRB]

Good presentation, great to see everything coming together.
But what's really exciting - they're FINALLY discussing a post-100ktpa expansion strategy!!! About bloody time.
I mean we've speculated on here before whether or not they were already considering these options, but it's nice to see it finally presented as a goal to develop an expansion strategy.

 

[TentCity]

Good presentation, great to see everything coming together.
But what's really exciting - they're FINALLY discussing a post-100ktpa expansion strategy!!! About bloody time.
I mean we've speculated on here before whether or not they were already considering these options, but it's nice to see it finally presented as a goal to develop an expansion strategy.

View attachment 28336

Looks like they forgot the ‘k’ in the 100tpa - otherwise, the mine will be the size of a kids sandpit!!

Should be 100ktpa

Agree - from a shareholder perspective, that’s what we all expect is coming in the pipeline, but Mark has just been sensibly cautious not talking it up. See the media articles Cosors has just posted today - the opponents are not happy the court decision is just on the Nunasvaara Sth deposit and not the eventual future size of the operation. No point giving them more ammo to justify their opposition at this stage.

We should have a little betting competition on here who can guess what size Stage 2 is going to be. Clearly MT wants it bigger than the current proposed Niska expansion of 84ktpa - but how much bigger?!

I’ll go with 200ktpa + the original 19,800 = Approx 220ktpa

Any other takers?!

 

[JNRB]

First scale-up was ~5x. My guess is that next scale up will be 3-5x also.

 

[Vigdorian]

Looks like they forgot the ‘k’ in the 100tpa - otherwise, the mine will be the size of a kids sandpit!!

Should be 100ktpa

Agree - from a shareholder perspective, that’s what we all expect is coming in the pipeline, but Mark has just been sensibly cautious not talking it up. See the media articles Cosors has just posted today - the opponents are not happy the court decision is just on the Nunasvaara Sth deposit and not the eventual future size of the operation. No point giving them more ammo to justify their opposition at this stage.

We should have a little betting competition on here who can guess what size Stage 2 is going to be. Clearly MT wants it bigger than the current proposed Niska expansion of 84ktpa - but how much bigger?!

I’ll go with 200ktpa + the original 19,800 = Approx 220ktpa

Any other takers?!

Can I wait for the resource upgrade due ‘end of calendar year 22’ before making my decision ?

Not one to shy away from a gamble - I’m going to be more conservative than you and go with 170ktpa. We’re dependent on our off-take partners and how quickly they can scale up their operations …

 

[Semmel]

Looks like they forgot the ‘k’ in the 100tpa - otherwise, the mine will be the size of a kids sandpit!!

Should be 100ktpa

Agree - from a shareholder perspective, that’s what we all expect is coming in the pipeline, but Mark has just been sensibly cautious not talking it up. See the media articles Cosors has just posted today - the opponents are not happy the court decision is just on the Nunasvaara Sth deposit and not the eventual future size of the operation. No point giving them more ammo to justify their opposition at this stage.

We should have a little betting competition on here who can guess what size Stage 2 is going to be. Clearly MT wants it bigger than the current proposed Niska expansion of 84ktpa - but how much bigger?!

I’ll go with 200ktpa + the original 19,800 = Approx 220ktpa

Any other takers?!

@JNRB About time indeed. I am jumping up and down on that point for a long time now.

I'm going with 300ktpa stage 2 and 2mtpa stage 3. That is 15x the production for stage 2 and compound 7 times for stage 3. That's because the size has only a small impact on the project development speed. Stage 2 development should be as large as possible, given the resource drilled today. While that process is running through the courts drill the hell out of that resource and make the third stage as large as it can go. We certainly need the volume in Europe and beyond. And the less expansion stages we have the faster the process goes. Two times 10x also feels about right for me but i would prefer a larger first expansion. Making my whish my prediction because I am an optimist

 

[cosors]

The Nature Conservation Society estimates 520ktpa

"It is not a matter of just one mine, but of four. Then it is about 520,000 tonnes per year instead, and that is a huge difference. The company tries to avoid the curves, says B. L., vice chairman of the nature conservation association in Norrbotten."
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/n...eningen-det-ar-inte-bara-en-gruva-det-ar-fyra

 

[TentCity]

The Nature Conservation Society estimates 520ktpa

"It is not a matter of just one mine, but of four. Then it is about 520,000 tonnes per year instead, and that is a huge difference. The company tries to avoid the curves, says Björn Lundqvist, vice chairman of the nature conservation association in Norrbotten."
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/n...eningen-det-ar-inte-bara-en-gruva-det-ar-fyra

Ooh nice find - I hope they are actually right and makes my 200ktpa estimate look conservative!!

 

[Semmel]

The Nature Conservation Society estimates 520ktpa

"It is not a matter of just one mine, but of four. Then it is about 520,000 tonnes per year instead, and that is a huge difference. The company tries to avoid the curves, says B. L., vice chairman of the nature conservation association in Norrbotten."
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/n...eningen-det-ar-inte-bara-en-gruva-det-ar-fyra

I am pretty sure they are talking about ore, not the contained graphite. In this context, the numbers are in line with Vittangi and Niska expansion respectively.

 

[TentCity]

@JNRB About time indeed. I am jumping up and down on that point for a long time now.

I'm going with 300ktpa stage 2 and 2mtpa stage 3. That is 15x the production for stage 2 and compound 7 times for stage 3. That's because the size has only a small impact on the project development speed. Stage 2 development should be as large as possible, given the resource drilled today. While that process is running through the courts drill the hell out of that resource and make the third stage as large as it can go. We certainly need the volume in Europe and beyond. And the less expansion stages we have the faster the process goes. Two times 10x also feels about right for me but i would prefer a larger first expansion. Making my whish my prediction because I am an optimist

Love the optimism! I’ve never imagined Talga getting above the 1mtpa mark as the financials and profitability are just staggering and feels too good to be true, even though logic suggests the mine could ramp up to those volumes.

I think Ursula von der Leyen, Thierry Breton etc will really need to drop some very supportive financing/permitting measures to reach your target in a timely manner via the CRM & Net Zero Acts. I agree with your thesis that we are constantly underestimating battery demand - so I am sure the demand for anode will be high enough to support 2mtpa, but the big question is permitting timelines to an operation of that scale.

 

[cosors]

Love the optimism! I’ve never imagined Talga getting above the 1mtpa mark as the financials and profitability are just staggering and feels too good to be true, even though logic suggests the mine could ramp up to those volumes.

I think Ursula von der Leyen, Thierry Breton etc will really need to drop some very supportive financing/permitting measures to reach your target in a timely manner via the CRM & Net Zero Acts. I agree with your thesis that we are constantly underestimating battery demand - so I am sure the demand for anode will be high enough to support 2mtpa, but the big question is permitting timelines to an operation of that scale.

Two thoughts: The EU is currently forced to find an answer to the US Inflation Reduction Act. Nobody wants a subsidy bidding competition. They fear that industry will withdraw, some speak of de-industrialization. The consultations are currently taking place. They will have to make a lot of money available and try to tie the economy to Europe. I keep my fingers crossed.

The other thought is about the permit for the factory. I assume it's tied to the mine's permit. I am aware that there are also major challenges and that Talga had/has to deliver, but I can imagine that this can be solved rationally. So maybe we'll get three consecutive permits. But this is also absolutely necessary - the construction should better start yesterday than tomorrow. But I understand that everyone wants to see the main approval first.
I'm curious how they plan to build the factory in a year and a half. The builders are already shuffling their feet
I often think of the industrial area in Lulea. Talga has been a household name for years. After all, they were the first for the new area. We are even advertised there. Whenever that comes to mind, I can't imagine they decide no. Maybe everything will happen in quick succession and with a flood of news in April/May.