Talga's Current NPV (Updated April 2022)

[Lolitsalan]

We won’t own 100% of the current project.
What profits there are from the initial 20ktpa anode would immediately go towards funding future expansions to 100ktpa++ which we would own 100% of.
I don’t see dividends until the niska expansion is up and running

 

[Semmel]

We won’t own 100% of the current project.
What profits there are from the initial 20ktpa anode would immediately go towards funding future expansions to 100ktpa++ which we would own 100% of.
I don’t see dividends until the niska expansion is up and running

Samo opinion here. Though I think/hope that talga will have an at least 400ktpa underground mine expansion. If it's less than that, I will probably sell part of my holdings if the hole doesn't get adequately filled by Talnode-Si. The opportunity cost of holding talga to get projects that are too small too late has become very high over the years. Either Niska is massive or I will descope my holdings. I don't think I will leave the stock entirely as it's still a good story but the endless delays don't hold up to my thesis. And make no mistake, any expansion will face the same hurdles, no matter the volume. So better make it massive.

 

[Semmel]

Maybe I should add, the delays are of no fault by talga at all. They are a small company and don't have a lot of leverage, so can't really put on much pressure to speed things up. However, for the investment thesis, it does not matter who is at fault for something. If I don't allocate my capital appropriately to the risk and timing of an investment, it's my fault and no one else's. It is however under talgas control how large the expansion is going to be. And if it's not sized appropriately (i.e. at least 400mtpa Talnode-C capacity), I would be negligent to make this long term investment. I would consider it very unlikely that talga will get 2 expansions going. They have one more shot at the vittanghi area for the foreseeable future and that's it. They have to hit the production capacity of the third expansion with the second. It's unfortunately the way it is in Sweden.

 

[cosors]

Maybe I should add, the delays are of no fault by talga at all. They are a small company and don't have a lot of leverage, so can't really put on much pressure to speed things up. However, for the investment thesis, it does not matter who is at fault for something. If I don't allocate my capital appropriately to the risk and timing of an investment, it's my fault and no one else's. It is however under talgas control how large the expansion is going to be. And if it's not sized appropriately (i.e. at least 400mtpa Talnode-C capacity), I would be negligent to make this long term investment. I would consider it very unlikely that talga will get 2 expansions going. They have one more shot at the vittanghi area for the foreseeable future and that's it. They have to hit the production capacity of the third expansion with the second. It's unfortunately the way it is in Sweden.

I just wait until built and binding offtake contracts. Then the fog will certainly clear and we will see more clearly. We also have a good deposit further south with no hurdles worth mentioning.
I'll be thinking about an expansion in a year.
Then Talga will also have a well thought-out plan and more information for us I think. For now, let's start building.