Lattelarry
Regular
Its unlikely to get filled or completed if you land right on the low - so probably worth setting it where you did
PNV Discussion 2022
- Thread starter Lattelarry
- Start date
Lattelarry
Regular
I wonder if this is the shorting we are seeing now - at open there is a lot of sales:
Space Cadet
Regular
I see Synpath clinical trial end date put back 5 months. Study end date now NArch 1 next year. Was October 1 this year.
Apologies if already noted here.
https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT05506215?A=5&B=6&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
SC
Apologies if already noted here.
https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT05506215?A=5&B=6&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
SC
There were a number of issues with the procedures of the clinicians. Not the least being, some clinicians removing the patch of synpath after just one week of application, then replacing it with the same. This process of wound dressing removal and change somewhat replicated the current SOC. PNV quickly saw the error and have rightly halted the trial until they are completely satisfied that the participating clinicians follow the correct prcedure for the single, one off use/application of synpath.
So far as todays trading halt. I suspect the announcement of another GPO could be on the cards. But honestly I really don't know.
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Lattelarry
Regular
HC is getting painful again - the morons keep coming out of the woodwork.
Space Cadet
Regular
Lattelarry
Regular
Hey Kick
Hows the model looking now?
I did some simple regression in Excel and also ran it through an AI and my results for sales for Dec 23 and Jun 24 are:
AI: Dec - 39m, Jun between 44.3 and 47.6
Excel: Dec 40m and Jun 46m
If we are making 6.5m per month the new minimum then these might be a little low.
Hopefully we get September results.
Also in the last update they state sales were $13m and BARDA was $1.6m but the total revenue was $14.9. Do you know where the extra 300k came from? Maybe interest on their $46m?
Hows the model looking now?
I did some simple regression in Excel and also ran it through an AI and my results for sales for Dec 23 and Jun 24 are:
AI: Dec - 39m, Jun between 44.3 and 47.6
Excel: Dec 40m and Jun 46m
If we are making 6.5m per month the new minimum then these might be a little low.
Hopefully we get September results.
Also in the last update they state sales were $13m and BARDA was $1.6m but the total revenue was $14.9. Do you know where the extra 300k came from? Maybe interest on their $46m?
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kickit2me
Member
Check out other thread
Lattelarry
Regular
New journal article - doesn't add much - i'll copy and paste the relevant bits here as the free version has barely any info:
Acute care for burn patients: fluids, surgery, and what else?
Palmieri, Tina L.Synthetic skin substitutes
BTM is a synthetic skin substitute composed of a perforated polyurethane sealing membrane, which mimics the epidermis, bonded to polyurethane foam. BTM is placed and stapled to a fully excised burn wound and allowed to engraft for 10 days to 3 weeks (Fig. 1). At engraftment maturation, BTM is vascularized and has a classic “salmon” color. Once engrafted, the sealing membrane is removed, the tissue abraded to punctate bleeding, and a thin meshed split thickness skin graft placed. BTM is synthetic; hence, no risk for disease transmission. The sealing membrane, when BTM is adherent, decreases fluid loss, simplifies dressing changes, and stabilizes the wound bed. BTM is ideal for patients with large burns, limited donor sites, and frail patients. While waiting for BTM engraftment, patients can be optimized for surgery, including nutrition and physical and occupational therapy to increase strength and mobility. Although BTM is resistant to infection, wound infection can occur, and infection beneath the BTM can progress rapidly. Fluid may collect beneath BTM as the polyurethane generates an inflammatory response. The fluid can be expressed through the BTM fenestrations. If, however, copious foul-smelling fluid collects in conjunction with nonadherent BTM, the patient should be treated with IV antibiotics, topical antibiotics, and BTM promptly removed. BTM has been used successfully in the elderly, massive burns (with cultured epithelial autograft), face and hand burns, and burn reconstruction. A randomized prospective trial is currently underway to establish efficacy and safety of BTM in third degree burns and is the standard of care in Australia and other countries.Autologous skin cell suspension
The other major advance in burn wound management is RECELL, an autologous skin cell suspension created from a very small donor site contains fibroblasts, melanocytes, and stem cells [32▪]. RECELL is currently approved for 2 uses in the United States: direct spraying of cells on partial thickness burns in patients 18 years old or older and application (via spray) in combination with meshed autografting for acute full-thickness thermal burns in both adults and children. RECELL must either be used in a wound with an underlying scaffold, such as a second degree burn wound, or in conjunction with a skin graft, as RECELL does not work without some form of scaffold. One of the major uses of RECELL is in massive burns in conjunction with widely meshed skin to maximize wound coverage and wound healing. The other use in massive burns is to spray the RECELL on donor sites to accelerate donor site healing. RECELL is often not used with topical antimicrobials, as they may injure the cells. Hence, the intensivist must remain alert to the potential for wound infection and treat rapidly should wounds become malodorous with drainage or high fevers develop. The use of RECELL is rapidly expanding in the U.S., as it may accelerate wound healing and thus decrease burn hospitalization duration.
Lattelarry
Regular
Not sure if this interests anyone but I had noticed that we tend to stick around the same trading price for about 9 trading days before making moves in either direction. To make sure I wasn't imaging this I put stock price data into ChatGPT.
This is what it said:
Disclaimer: Not financial advice!
But it might be possible to trade these periods and then hold towards the end if expecting it to keep moving up.
This is what it said:
Disclaimer: Not financial advice!
But it might be possible to trade these periods and then hold towards the end if expecting it to keep moving up.
Space Cadet
Regular
Well must day, I like that. I like it a looott!
SC
SC
Space Cadet
Regular
Well that's a waste of a couple of years. Sympathy trial terminated.
https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT05506215?A=7&B=8&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
SC
| Terminated [After review of study data, sponsor determined wound bed preparation prior to product application was not being followed. A new study will be considered with clearer definition of wound bed preparation and strict adherence to the steps for use.] | ||
https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT05506215?A=7&B=8&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
SC
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Lattelarry
Regular
Seems like they will never launch the new product lines
Space Cadet
Regular
Well, it seems like the training and procedures need looking into at very least. very disappointing but everything else going from strength to strength.
SC
Space Cadet
Regular
Update submitted in BTM in Severe Burns clinical trial. Nothing major. 2 hospitals withdrew and 1 hospital changed status from recruiting to Active not recruiting. That means to me they have their numbers up to required level. Still 18 months to go.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NC...&compareMode=sideBySide#version-content-panel
SC
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NC...&compareMode=sideBySide#version-content-panel
SC
kickit2me
Member
If anyone's wondering, I'm still tracking.
The $9m April was way above monthly projections, but I've moved to working more with the quarterly data and we've had nothing to go on there,
Space Cadet
Regular
Thanks Kick
kickit2me
Member
Update of regression model REVENUE projections based on quarterly data:
Adding in the last 6 months revenue data gives the FY24 revenue at $92.0m. This means that H2FY24 was $49.8m. This has not been given in quarterly amounts so I've split it (making estimates) of $23.9 Q3FY24 and $25.9m Q4FY24 based on the underlying trend and April reported record.
Up to the end of H1FY24 the (quadratic) regression model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0352.
After adding the new data up to end of FY24 the model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0399.
This shows that the last two quarters showed an increase in the rate of increase. Again. This means the growth is not slowing, it is still accelerating.
The model uses all the data dating back to the first reported quarterly values. This means it is now based on 84 quarters - 7 years data.
Because of the continuing rate of increase of the growth, the model lags in its projections. It projects what we should expect if the rate of growth remain steady. PNV rate of growth has grown continually. Despite this lag, it is very useful. It wasn't built to project accurately, it was designed to test if growth exceeded projections. PNV continues to do so quarter on quarter.
Projections:
The model previously projected FY24 at $85.7m and FY25 at $114.5m
Using updated figures the model projected FY24 at $88.9m (actual $92.0) and FY25 at $120.3m.
This means that by including these last half revenue numbers the FY25 projections are now up $5.8m. Every time new data is added the model steps up its projections for the future. i.e. Growth on growth continues!
Hope this is useful.
I've got my own PNV but most is in a "kids trust" account. I don't think mine will make me rich overnight, but they've got the time to be patient
...
Adding in the last 6 months revenue data gives the FY24 revenue at $92.0m. This means that H2FY24 was $49.8m. This has not been given in quarterly amounts so I've split it (making estimates) of $23.9 Q3FY24 and $25.9m Q4FY24 based on the underlying trend and April reported record.
Up to the end of H1FY24 the (quadratic) regression model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0352.
After adding the new data up to end of FY24 the model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0399.
This shows that the last two quarters showed an increase in the rate of increase. Again. This means the growth is not slowing, it is still accelerating.
The model uses all the data dating back to the first reported quarterly values. This means it is now based on 84 quarters - 7 years data.
Because of the continuing rate of increase of the growth, the model lags in its projections. It projects what we should expect if the rate of growth remain steady. PNV rate of growth has grown continually. Despite this lag, it is very useful. It wasn't built to project accurately, it was designed to test if growth exceeded projections. PNV continues to do so quarter on quarter.
Projections:
The model previously projected FY24 at $85.7m and FY25 at $114.5m
Using updated figures the model projected FY24 at $88.9m (actual $92.0) and FY25 at $120.3m.
This means that by including these last half revenue numbers the FY25 projections are now up $5.8m. Every time new data is added the model steps up its projections for the future. i.e. Growth on growth continues!
Hope this is useful.
I've got my own PNV but most is in a "kids trust" account. I don't think mine will make me rich overnight, but they've got the time to be patient
...
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