PNV Discussion 2022

[Westsurf]

Thanks Kick …

Are you going to put up the graph?

 

[Lattelarry]

Update of regression model REVENUE projections based on quarterly data:

Adding in the last 6 months revenue data gives the FY24 revenue at $92.0m. This means that H2FY24 was $49.8m. This has not been given in quarterly amounts so I've split it (making estimates) of $23.9 Q3FY24 and $25.9m Q4FY24 based on the underlying trend and April reported record.

Up to the end of H1FY24 the (quadratic) regression model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0352.
After adding the new data up to end of FY24 the model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0399.
This shows that the last two quarters showed an increase in the rate of increase. Again. This means the growth is not slowing, it is still accelerating.

The model uses all the data dating back to the first reported quarterly values. This means it is now based on 84 quarters - 7 years data.
Because of the continuing rate of increase of the growth, the model lags in its projections. It projects what we should expect if the rate of growth remain steady. PNV rate of growth has grown continually. Despite this lag, it is very useful. It wasn't built to project accurately, it was designed to test if growth exceeded projections. PNV continues to do so quarter on quarter.

Projections:

The model previously projected FY24 at $85.7m and FY25 at $114.5m

Using updated figures the model projected FY24 at $88.9m (actual $92.0) and FY25 at $120.3m.

This means that by including these last half revenue numbers the FY25 projections are now up $5.8m. Every time new data is added the model steps up its projections for the future. i.e. Growth on growth continues!


Hope this is useful.

I've got my own PNV but most is in a "kids trust" account. I don't think mine will make me rich overnight, but they've got the time to be patient

...

Thanks
I think the market might be disappointed if sales are $120.3m this FY.
Macquarie are predicting sales growth at 48% and $135.8m sales.

 

[BoroBoyinOz]

Thanks
I think the market might be disappointed if sales are $120.3m this FY.
Macquarie are predicting sales growth at 48% and $135.8m

Update of regression model REVENUE projections based on quarterly data:

Adding in the last 6 months revenue data gives the FY24 revenue at $92.0m. This means that H2FY24 was $49.8m. This has not been given in quarterly amounts so I've split it (making estimates) of $23.9 Q3FY24 and $25.9m Q4FY24 based on the underlying trend and April reported record.

Up to the end of H1FY24 the (quadratic) regression model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0352.
After adding the new data up to end of FY24 the model had an x^2 coefficient of 0.0399.
This shows that the last two quarters showed an increase in the rate of increase. Again. This means the growth is not slowing, it is still accelerating.

The model uses all the data dating back to the first reported quarterly values. This means it is now based on 84 quarters - 7 years data.
Because of the continuing rate of increase of the growth, the model lags in its projections. It projects what we should expect if the rate of growth remain steady. PNV rate of growth has grown continually. Despite this lag, it is very useful. It wasn't built to project accurately, it was designed to test if growth exceeded projections. PNV continues to do so quarter on quarter.

Projections:

The model previously projected FY24 at $85.7m and FY25 at $114.5m

Using updated figures the model projected FY24 at $88.9m (actual $92.0) and FY25 at $120.3m.

This means that by including these last half revenue numbers the FY25 projections are now up $5.8m. Every time new data is added the model steps up its projections for the future. i.e. Growth on growth continues!


Hope this is useful.

I've got my own PNV but most is in a "kids trust" account. I don't think mine will make me rich overnight, but they've got the time to be patient

...

Great information, thanks for the heads up.

 

[kickit2me]

Thanks
I think the market might be disappointed if sales are $120.3m this FY.
Macquarie are predicting sales growth at 48% and $135.8m sales.

Is that $135.8 from Macquarie just sales? Or is it total revenue? Seems odd, as I think they are modelling in the same way I am to get their valuations etc.
Of course, given history, we are likely to exceed the baseline model Ive set up.

 

[whytee]

Thanks
I think the market might be disappointed if sales are $120.3m this FY.
Macquarie are predicting sales growth at 48% and $135.8m sales.

I haven't seen the latest MacQuarie analysis, so they may be factoring in some growth from new markets? But at any rate a couple of years ago I remember suggesting FY24 revenues of $90m and FY25 $125m so that's still on track as far as me and Kick's model are concerned. $104m was simply a pleasant surprise. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see FY25 at $130m or slightly more. Kick's model averages things out over 7 years, so an unexpected blip up for one year doesn't have as much influence on the next year's target. We'll see I guess. But the Financial Report will be interesting in August and the AGM.

 

[Lattelarry]

Is that $135.8 from Macquarie just sales? Or is it total revenue? Seems odd, as I think they are modelling in the same way I am to get their valuations etc.
Of course, given history, we are likely to exceed the baseline model Ive set up.

I was just trying to see if I could get their report but it seems they dont offer it or at least not for free through their platform so I've just got the snippet from refinitiv

 

[whytee]

Is that $135.8 from Macquarie just sales? Or is it total revenue? Seems odd, as I think they are modelling in the same way I am to get their valuations etc.
Of course, given history, we are likely to exceed the baseline model Ive set up.

My optimistic hope would be for FY25 revenue including BARDA to be around $135m and FY26 to be $195m... so that would perhaps be $125m in sales for 2025 and $185m in sales for for 2026. Don't know how that will align with Kicks graph or MacQuarie, but if it should come to pass I think everyone will be very happy.

 

[Lattelarry]

I haven't seen the latest MacQuarie analysis, so they may be factoring in some growth from new markets? But at any rate a couple of years ago I remember suggesting FY24 revenues of $90m and FY25 $125m so that's still on track as far as me and Kick's model are concerned. $104m was simply a pleasant surprise. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see FY25 at $130m or slightly more. Kick's model averages things out over 7 years, so an unexpected blip up for one year doesn't have as much influence on the next year's target. We'll see I guess. But the Financial Report will be interesting in August and the AGM.

Forgot to say that yes they are factoring in India - made special mention of it in another snippet

 

[Lattelarry]

Forgot to say that yes they are factoring in India - made special mention of it in another snippet

DW just shared the report. These 2 stand out.

• Strong customer acquisition over 1H24 continues to supported strong growth in sales. At 1H24, total customers (hospitals) grew to 861, up +67% YoY from 515 in 1H23.
• BARDA trial completion a key catalyst: At Feb-24, PNV's BARDA trial had 91 patients enrolled, representing ~76% of total expected recruitment of 120 patients. We expect trial result data to be a key near-term catalyst for PNV, providing surgeons with clinical evidence of PNV vs the current standard of care. This clinical evidence may also support use of BTM as a class III medical device for full thickness burns in the US.

and
Valuation: Our target price remains unchanged at A$2.75. We update our DCF parameters to include update in-house RFR of 4.24%, with terminal growth rate increasing in line with RFR increase.

 

[Lattelarry]

Kick are you still watching shorts?
Yesterday was a little higher. I wonder if its the start of a big short again. Given the presence of State Street.
Will be interesting to see how many shorted today.

 

[Space Cadet]

Nice feel good story from BBC.

https://www.bbc.com/storyworks/natu...-wound-care-dermal-regeneration-for-diabetics

SC

 

[Space Cadet]

Interesting.

https://investors.spectral-ai.com/n...unces-collaboration-global-wound-care-company

SC

 

[Lattelarry]

Yep shorts look to be growing again. State Street has millions on loan.