teilenswert
Regular
I stumbled upon the video via a tweet.
Media
- Thread starter cosors
- Start date
JoMo68
Regular
WheresTheMonkey
Regular
I really cannot reconcile that conference to the investor briefing in August. That video compared to what MT was saying in August (when everything was just dandy) seems poles apart especially in relation to financing. I don't think offtakes for the 19,500 are a problem and therefore debt funding should be fine but the equity component definitely is a problem it would seem.
Even if we get a good Supreme Court decision tonight or whenever if we don't have anyone to help build it we are going to stay at these levels until the ASX loses patience and decides that perhaps "the Emperor has no clothes" and suddenly we go well sub $1.00 perhaps back towards $0.80.
In fact just on the basis of the conference video once it gets wide circulation we could revisit $1.00
I have in previous weeks expressed concern as to the rise of synthetic and now I am truly troubled by the tone of MT's comments
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JoMo68
Regular
I sure hope you’re wrong
WheresTheMonkey
Regular
I hope I am very wrong..............very...............very wrongI sure hope you’re wrong
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Playing devils advocate. What if MT is f***ing with the shorters knowing they could/likely be watching, (with everything bursting in the pipeline), as well as those OEMs sitting on the fence playing hardball. Wouldn't that be a nice chess move?!
JoMo68
Regular
I skipped around the video and tried to watch all the times that Mark talked. I didn't hear anything that contradicted his previous comments that offtakes were ready and just waiting on permits. Can you be more specific about what Mark said that has you worried?
WheresTheMonkey
Regular
I'm satisfied Offtakes are ready to go as well which means Debt funding would be ready as well.
But Equity ??????
It was his expectation that EU governments would partially fund it after he alluded to equity partners being difficult to secure.
Maybe I'm reading too much into his tone ??????????????
Or shorters trying to make an orderly exitShare price moving up quite nicely today in anticipation of a positive appeal outcome? My tea leaves are a bit unreliable at the moment
ACinEur
Regular
Have to say I agree with with our resident monkey 
… I thought MT was down beat, lacking the usual confidence and it has caused me to go down a Rabbit hole on synthetic…. Holding tight to my TLG shares and looking forward to a getting past this court date and hopefully getting some clear air…
… I thought MT was down beat, lacking the usual confidence and it has caused me to go down a Rabbit hole on synthetic…. Holding tight to my TLG shares and looking forward to a getting past this court date and hopefully getting some clear air…
WheresTheMonkey
Regular
The "Equity Gap" as he termed it concerned me.Have to say I agree with with our resident monkey
Anyway let's say Monday morning we get a positive announcement (maybe even tomorrow if our lawyers sling a case of beer in the direction of a Court official) then look out for the biggest pump (or attempted pump due to the state of the graphite market) in this Company's history.
We will see Offtakes announced weekly over three weeks, then finally Debt financing and then within 24 hours of that a Trading Halt for a major credit raise.
Or something like that
Problem is the shit market sentiment at the moment especially around graphite.
Monkeymandan
Regular
That’s more like it WTM. Too late to get out now, so may as well go full rose tinted for the weekend!The "Equity Gap" as he termed it concerned me.
Anyway let's say Monday morning we get a positive announcement (maybe even tomorrow if our lawyers sling a case of beer in the direction of a Court official) then look out for the biggest pump (or attempted pump due to the state of the graphite market) in this Company's history.
We will see Offtakes announced weekly over three weeks, then finally Debt financing and then within 24 hours of that a Trading Halt for a major credit raise.
Or something like that
Problem is the shit market sentiment at the moment especially around graphite.
You forgot the impending Talnode Si announcement?
WheresTheMonkey
Regular
Actually the "drop in" Talnode Si would upstage everything if there was a binding Offtake
curiousmagpie
Regular
also share others concerns about that conference talk
MT seemed very frustrated throughout. comments that the European market was not yet willing to pay up for green anode was concerning for offtakes getting closed out. Also comments around OEMs attitudes to graphite make it sound like project equity funding is not even in the conversation yet, let alone close to being announces. Mention of producing “in a couple of years” suitably vague.
There was a big selloff on decent volume the day this was published (21st Sept) which I’m hindsight is not surprising.
Has certainly left me less confidence with the short term prospects here.
MT seemed very frustrated throughout. comments that the European market was not yet willing to pay up for green anode was concerning for offtakes getting closed out. Also comments around OEMs attitudes to graphite make it sound like project equity funding is not even in the conversation yet, let alone close to being announces. Mention of producing “in a couple of years” suitably vague.
There was a big selloff on decent volume the day this was published (21st Sept) which I’m hindsight is not surprising.
Has certainly left me less confidence with the short term prospects here.
cosors
👀
Not easy fare to get in a good mood for the session, I would think.
I would like to refer again to this agenda item before this session in the conference that we have seen. The participants in the session have certainly heard and seen that contribution. Most of the issues before the session deal with major challenges that exist at the moment. So I think the participants did not go into this session in a happy mood. Moreover, the same person moderated both sessions. Both of these things certainly reinforced the situation. So the group was attuned to the concerns they share.
Moreover, China is also hijacking our market right now and flooding it with cheapest prices.
So if China is manipulating prices at the moment that doesn't say anything about how long they can keep this pressure on the world. But I can imagine that it makes it more difficult to negotiate a deal now for the future when prices are so low. The OEMs' chief buyers will certainly use this as leverage. What should they care about the negotiations now, what will be in a few years when the price stabilises again. China knows exactly how to keep a stranglehold on the world. But how long will they be able to hold it. The pressure in the country is mounting (real estate issue, Silk Road, mountains of outstanding debt with rising interest rates, price dumping and thus finance).
So I give less importance to the gloomy mood in this session, of course even if the issues have to be taken seriously. But in this case I think it was somewhat amplified, as it was exclusively about these issues.
And one issue was not addressed directly and the abbreviation does not do it justice, the long approval process. This is based on a lack of information among the population and the one-sided implementation of the interests in the form of laws, which the EU is rightly complaining about and is now counteracting.
A few days ago there was an open day. In the climate deniers' group, they arranged to drop by. Of course, they don't want to know about the macro picture. MT will have to deal with that too, even though he will certainly not attend in person. The delays are due to their deliberate ignorance. So headwind from the population, headwind from China, headwind from the administration/courts, SD Kiruna and then as thoughts all together in this meeting I could imagine.
Years ago, MT must have been, like almost everyone else, happy that his project would meet with broad approval and a lot of support not only from politics but also from the population. The latter seems to be absent from the media. The antis are the loudest. In my years of research, I hear almost exclusively the loud voices of the antis in the media, and none of the media makes an effort to explain to the population what is realistically necessary for the Green Transition. But I also think that MT is probably not scraping his knees on the issue the way I am. His worries are likely to hang on the delays and headwinds as well, but mostly on the headwinds from China, which is likely to affect the negotiations. Not everything about it is bad, as the EU's action plan on independence shows. But it is not enough (see the US bazooka of the IRA). Here, by the way, politicians talk a lot of de-risking and China is already snubbed at being seen as a risk.
He is messing with the biggest and most powerful player for all. I would be interested to know if he has been given credit for this behind closed doors by one OEM or another.
Maybe his mood was already better after the meeting, once most of the points were voiced, venting and sharing concerns.
I am just trying to put myself in his shoes. So there is a lot of guesswork from me here.
MT has come very very far, as the speaker next to him in the meeting also acknowledged.
Now, on the home stretch, don't lose heart, bite, like in a marathon and once again give it your all! But he is not alone. The mood on site among the staff is very good, if you look on social media.
You know I get upset more often and I can't believe it how blind people can and want to be and prefer to live in bubbles. I do this voluntarily, but for the board it is their job to embrace all the worries and find the best solution. This is often not easy and mentally stressful.
For me, it is by far not only about my invested money. I like to look at the macro picture.
Don't let up now, even if China, like the opponents, also give it their all again.
MT needs cheerleaders on the home stretch and confidence and also some jubilation about how far he has come. I wish MT and all those involved good nerves to bring the project to the finish line for all of us.
Have to say I agree with with our resident monkey
He sounded a little tired and under the weather, maybe all this running around has taken a toll.
I would say he is also just generally frustrated with the system and bureaucracy.... all these governments saying they need to go green etc, but then companies bang their heads a gainst brick walls trying to actually get to the next step with support and $$. That, plus OEMs still getting cheap material while they still can.
JoMo68
Regular
He did sound as though he had a bit of a cold/cough…