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I think you are confusing chance with risk. Two different things.I am not going to argue either because you are wrong or at least your view is not popular amongst actuaries.
If anyone wants to know how actuaries calculate this then the Age Tables should be available on line now they used come in my legal service.
Regards
FF
AKIDA BALLISTA
The risk was that Sean Hehir was not telling the truth that you need to watch the income and that announcements would be made.
As time passes without making an announcement the risk that he did not mean this diminished.
When the half yearly showed at least $2 million extra from licence fees via MegaChips that risk that Sean Hehir was not telling the truth was smashed or obliterated.
My opinion only DYOR
FF
AKIDA BALLISTA