I guess my question was really "can you interpret the chart for a pre-revenue company in the same way as the chart of a going concern?"
In the past year, we really haven't had any bad news, and we've had a fairly consistent stream of good news. So, assume we had a continuous flow of better than break-even cash during the period, would we expect the same slide.
Or suppose we were a minerals explorer with a comparable flow of good news ...?
We had our first strike gold tenament coming into production with a couple of offtake agreements, and then we made a second much larger find with a whole lot more undisclosed but strongly rumoured offtake agreements for the first strike strongly indicated to be progressing to completion.
On top of that our mineral, well gem really, has proven to be worth more than twice the whole combined palladium/platinum/gold/silver index.
As we've ll known, the ASX is more familiar with banks and mines and grocery shops than hi tech. While ChatGPT has raised the profile of AI, I'm not sure that he ASX understands the relevance of Akida. After all BRN has only recently emerged as a RAG-enabled small LLM processor, but that has not registered any Ricthers on the ASX seismometer.
Yes, I see your point.
Just a few random calcul
I guess my question was really "can you interpret the chart for a pre-revenue company in the same way as the chart of a going concern?"
In the past year, we really haven't had any bad news, and we've had a fairly consistent stream of good news. So, assume we had a continuous flow of better than break-even cash during the period, would we expect the same slide.
Or suppose we were a minerals explorer with a comparable flow of good news ...?
We had our first strike gold tenament coming into production with a couple of offtake agreements, and then we made a second much larger find with a whole lot more undisclosed but strongly rumoured offtake agreements for the first strike strongly indicated to be progressing to completion.
On top of that our mineral, well gem really, has proven to be worth more than twice the whole combined palladium/platinum/gold/silver index.
As we've ll known, the ASX is more familiar with banks and mines and grocery shops than hi tech. While ChatGPT has raised the profile of AI, I'm not sure that he ASX understands the relevance of Akida. After all BRN has only recently emerged as a RAG-enabled small LLM processor, but that has not registered any Ricthers on the ASX seismometer.
Yep, see your point, no sure things in markets.
Just a few calculations for fun.
If in a ??? years we make revenue of $1 billion. Sean said we would make around 90% margin on an IP model. Say after R & D etc we make a conservative 70% margin???
Circa $700 mill net for circa 2 billion shares = circa EPS of 35 cents a share.
A growth stock like BRN would expect a very minimum PE ratio of 30 and at times of excess exuberance reach 50 plus. NVIDIA currently 52.5 PE.
A PE of 30 on EPS of 35 cents would see a share price of $10.50.
A PE of 50 on EPS of 35 cents would see a share price of $17.50.
Tony Lewis at the Gadget Guy interview at the CES'25 when asked where we will be in 5 years said words like 'in everything'. Obviously a throwaway comment but we should do ok.
Sean said in a presentation some time ago that we aimed to become one of the top 2 or 3 leaders in a huge 'Edge' Industry. If this is the case $1 billion should be way to conservative.
I can only guess what our revenue figures will or could be and how long it will take for the $ to roll in.
Sean said a 90% margin for IP. I can only guess 70% may be more appropriate - but he is the expert not me.
The market will make its own assumptions as to BRN value.
I use these sorts of calcs amongst others as part of my personal BRN investment criterion. I make my own assumptions which are not necessarily displayed above.
Amongst other things i also check with BRN as to whether their own 'Why Invest' reasons remain intact.