Steve10
Regular
What's peoples thought on a time frame that they think Brn will be hitting the road hard with deals/licences and decent revenue to push us beyond let's say 3 bucks per share ?
Yes it's a guessing game but I'm just interested in people's personal views on the matter.
And no cheeky replies saying "mmm duh why don't you do a poll .
$3 SP = $5.4B MC. At a high PE100 will require $54M NPAT / 0.7 ATO = $77.14M EBITDA / 0.65 = $118.68M revenue.
To maintain around $3 SP with hot PE100 requires circa $120M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $120M revenue = x45 revenue multiple.
A Nasdaq listing could result in PE150 similar to Nvidia & would require $36M NPAT & $79.12M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $80M revenue = x67.5 revenue multiple.
PE100 & PE150 are quite high so would require high growth rate & high forward looking revenue.
So the question becomes, how long until BRN can generate $80-120M revenue?
Could be quite fast such as via 50c royalty from Qualcomm x 200M smart phones = $100M revenue.
Or slower such as via Mercedes with premium cars having about 70 MCU's x 15% AI equipped = 10 x 2M cars pa = 20M x $1 royalty = $20M revenue. If 50% of the 70 MCU's are AI equipped in future due to extra sensors/Lidar etc = 35 x 2M cars pa = 70M x $1 royalty = $70M revenue.
I allowed higher royalty for Mercedes as their products are more expensive & royalty was going to be higher for more expensive products.
Then there will also be washing machine, dryer, air conditioner etc applications for MCU's as well. Will take a few years for mass adoption & there will be hundreds of millions units per year. May start with 25-50M units first year x 50c royalty = $12.5-25M revenue & within 2-3 years reach $100M revenue.
Combination of the above should result in about $100M revenue by end of next year including more license agreements. Thus SP should maintain around $3 SP towards the end of 2024. But it will need to be at a high PE100-150.
However, BRN SP tends to spike due to market excitement so it would not surprise me to see SP at $3 on the back of a couple of big name license agreements. If Qualcomm were to be announced it would create a frenzy & the $100M revenue will get priced in within 3-4 months of the announcement. 50c SP x 6 run to $3 SP would be highly likely as we had 39c SP x 6 run to $2.34 intraday peak when Mercedes was announced without any revenue.
So $3 SP could come as early as next 6 months or as late as end of 2024. The earlier it gets to $3 SP without revenue the higher the probability of a 50% retrace to $1.50.
Happy Easter to all.