D
What's peoples thought on a time frame that they think Brn will be hitting the road hard with deals/licences and decent revenue to push us beyond let's say 3 bucks per share ?
Yes it's a guessing game but I'm just interested in people's personal views on the matter.
And no cheeky replies saying "mmm duh why don't you do a poll .
So, pretty much what I said without all the Brainiac stuff calculations.........$3 SP = $5.4B MC. At a high PE100 will require $54M NPAT / 0.7 ATO = $77.14M EBITDA / 0.65 = $118.68M revenue.
To maintain around $3 SP with hot PE100 requires circa $120M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $120M revenue = x45 revenue multiple.
A Nasdaq listing could result in PE150 similar to Nvidia & would require $36M NPAT & $79.12M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $80M revenue = x67.5 revenue multiple.
PE100 & PE150 are quite high so would require high growth rate & high forward looking revenue.
So the question becomes, how long until BRN can generate $80-120M revenue?
Could be quite fast such as via 50c royalty from Qualcomm x 200M smart phones = $100M revenue.
Or slower such as via Mercedes with premium cars having about 70 MCU's x 15% AI equipped = 10 x 2M cars pa = 20M x $1 royalty = $20M revenue. If 50% of the 70 MCU's are AI equipped in future due to extra sensors/Lidar etc = 35 x 2M cars pa = 70M x $1 royalty = $70M revenue.
I allowed higher royalty for Mercedes as their products are more expensive & royalty was going to be higher for more expensive products.
Then there will also be washing machine, dryer, air conditioner etc applications for MCU's as well. Will take a few years for mass adoption & there will be hundreds of millions units per year. May start with 25-50M units first year x 50c royalty = $12.5-25M revenue & within 2-3 years reach $100M revenue.
Combination of the above should result in about $100M revenue by end of next year including more license agreements. Thus SP should maintain around $3 SP towards the end of 2024. But it will need to be at a high PE100-150.
However, BRN SP tends to spike due to market excitement so it would not surprise me to see SP at $3 on the back of a couple of big name license agreements. If Qualcomm were to be announced it would create a frenzy & the $100M revenue will get priced in within 3-4 months of the announcement. 50c SP x 6 run to $3 SP would be highly likely as we had 39c SP x 6 run to $2.34 intraday peak when Mercedes was announced without any revenue.
So $3 SP could come as early as next 6 months or as late as end of 2024. The earlier it gets to $3 SP without revenue the higher the probability of a 50% retrace to $1.50.
Happy Easter to all.
Well laid out Steve and some great scenarios shown.$3 SP = $5.4B MC. At a high PE100 will require $54M NPAT / 0.7 ATO = $77.14M EBITDA / 0.65 = $118.68M revenue.
To maintain around $3 SP with hot PE100 requires circa $120M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $120M revenue = x45 revenue multiple.
A Nasdaq listing could result in PE150 similar to Nvidia & would require $36M NPAT & $79.12M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $80M revenue = x67.5 revenue multiple.
PE100 & PE150 are quite high so would require high growth rate & high forward looking revenue.
So the question becomes, how long until BRN can generate $80-120M revenue?
Could be quite fast such as via 50c royalty from Qualcomm x 200M smart phones = $100M revenue.
Or slower such as via Mercedes with premium cars having about 70 MCU's x 15% AI equipped = 10 x 2M cars pa = 20M x $1 royalty = $20M revenue. If 50% of the 70 MCU's are AI equipped in future due to extra sensors/Lidar etc = 35 x 2M cars pa = 70M x $1 royalty = $70M revenue.
I allowed higher royalty for Mercedes as their products are more expensive & royalty was going to be higher for more expensive products.
Then there will also be washing machine, dryer, air conditioner etc applications for MCU's as well. Will take a few years for mass adoption & there will be hundreds of millions units per year. May start with 25-50M units first year x 50c royalty = $12.5-25M revenue & within 2-3 years reach $100M revenue.
Combination of the above should result in about $100M revenue by end of next year including more license agreements. Thus SP should maintain around $3 SP towards the end of 2024. But it will need to be at a high PE100-150.
However, BRN SP tends to spike due to market excitement so it would not surprise me to see SP at $3 on the back of a couple of big name license agreements. If Qualcomm were to be announced it would create a frenzy & the $100M revenue will get priced in within 3-4 months of the announcement. 50c SP x 6 run to $3 SP would be highly likely as we had 39c SP x 6 run to $2.34 intraday peak when Mercedes was announced without any revenue.
So $3 SP could come as early as next 6 months or as late as end of 2024. The earlier it gets to $3 SP without revenue the higher the probability of a 50% retrace to $1.50.
Happy Easter to all.
What a calculation and no one can make a fault out of that.$3 SP = $5.4B MC. At a high PE100 will require $54M NPAT / 0.7 ATO = $77.14M EBITDA / 0.65 = $118.68M revenue.
To maintain around $3 SP with hot PE100 requires circa $120M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $120M revenue = x45 revenue multiple.
A Nasdaq listing could result in PE150 similar to Nvidia & would require $36M NPAT & $79.12M revenue.
$5.4B MC / $80M revenue = x67.5 revenue multiple.
PE100 & PE150 are quite high so would require high growth rate & high forward looking revenue.
So the question becomes, how long until BRN can generate $80-120M revenue?
Could be quite fast such as via 50c royalty from Qualcomm x 200M smart phones = $100M revenue.
Or slower such as via Mercedes with premium cars having about 70 MCU's x 15% AI equipped = 10 x 2M cars pa = 20M x $1 royalty = $20M revenue. If 50% of the 70 MCU's are AI equipped in future due to extra sensors/Lidar etc = 35 x 2M cars pa = 70M x $1 royalty = $70M revenue.
I allowed higher royalty for Mercedes as their products are more expensive & royalty was going to be higher for more expensive products.
Then there will also be washing machine, dryer, air conditioner etc applications for MCU's as well. Will take a few years for mass adoption & there will be hundreds of millions units per year. May start with 25-50M units first year x 50c royalty = $12.5-25M revenue & within 2-3 years reach $100M revenue.
Combination of the above should result in about $100M revenue by end of next year including more license agreements. Thus SP should maintain around $3 SP towards the end of 2024. But it will need to be at a high PE100-150.
However, BRN SP tends to spike due to market excitement so it would not surprise me to see SP at $3 on the back of a couple of big name license agreements. If Qualcomm were to be announced it would create a frenzy & the $100M revenue will get priced in within 3-4 months of the announcement. 50c SP x 6 run to $3 SP would be highly likely as we had 39c SP x 6 run to $2.34 intraday peak when Mercedes was announced without any revenue.
So $3 SP could come as early as next 6 months or as late as end of 2024. The earlier it gets to $3 SP without revenue the higher the probability of a 50% retrace to $1.50.
Happy Easter to all.
From within the article. Very nice plug. That's two nuggets in one day @Rocket577Guess one one has a company email to download this report and then post it.
Embedded World 2023—the Latest IoT Chipset and Edge Trends
36-page event report highlighting key insights from Embedded World 2023, one of the world’s leading fairs for the embedded community.iot-analytics.com
From within the article. Very nice plug. That's two nuggets in one day @Rocket577
2. A new AI design cycle for embedded devices is emerging
The embedded community is getting ready for hardware and devices supporting AI/ML execution at the edge. This means massive hardware design changes and complexity and an increased software stack complexity. AI hardware development company BrainChip showcased its new Akida AI processor IP that integrates with Arm’s new Cortex-M85 for handling advanced machine learning workloads at the edge. Chipmaker Renesas is one of the clients of Akida AI that showcased AI running on Arm Cortex-M85. AI-based machine vision applications are one of the driving forces of AI adoption at this point. Adlink Technologies and Vision Components, for example, showcased their respective new AI camera solutions that are capable of deploying large AI algorithms on their equipment.
Thats number 3 @Rocket577AI at the Edge Ushers in the Hyperconnected Era
We have entered the next phase of the digital revolution in which the data center has stretched to the edge of the network and where myriad Internet of Things (IoT) devices gather and process data with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI).d2iq.com
AI has been called “the most disruptive technology of the century,” and “the biggest commercial opportunity in today’s fast-changing economy. Indeed, McKinsey’s Tech Trends Outlook 2022 sizes the global AI opportunity at $10 trillion to $15 trillion.
Just bored lolThats number 3 @Rocket577
Are you shooting from the penalty spot with Blind Freddy on the goal line?
I think at the last AGM the company made comment about the potential for exaggerated claims by BrainChips competitors. I know how sometimes those claims have been quite stressful to shareholders including myself and I think that since the explosion of ChatGTP companies in the AIOT space have been even more inclined to push this exaggeration. No one really knows if Qualcomm’s claims have Akida in their court but as @Diogenese has been at pains to reiterate the associated patents are pretty much based on an underlying Von Neumann architecture, so if they claim everything they claim without Akida then maybe their doing so with a touch of smoke and mirrors. Time will tell.We are either in this or the claim to be 3 years ahead of competitors is questionable
He is also is indirectly talking to us through his podcast interviewsShould Sean be spending more time communicating with shareholders ... or spending that time talking to partners and customers? I know where I want him spending his time. The one to talk with shareholders is the shareholder relations person, NOT Sean. Give the man a break and let him do the job which is MOST important for us. From everything I am seeing and hearing he is doing a great job despite limitations to what he can officially reveal. Keep it up Sean, and well done!
Deena