Xhosa12345
Regular
Morning, Below is my estimate with accompanying references for BRN's projected revenue and MC in 5 years. I like to think in probability, and believe it's more likely than not we'll hit between these to bounds, which would result in a MC of $273 - $1163 Bn USD.
Note, I made conservative estimates even with high range, with the 3 variables highlighted grey are the only difference between low and high ranges. The sky truly is the limit. DYODD.
View attachment 12993
Reference & Notes
1 https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/semiconductor-market-102365
Growth attributed to increased consumption of consumer devices, and emergence of AI, IOT and ML.
2 https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/semiconductor-market-102365
Report predicts 12.2% p.a., other reports show CAGR as substantially higher in the 20-30%+ range.
3 2029 projection is $1.38T market size per annum
4 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ire-ai-chipsets-market-by-2027-301590917.html
Reports makes a 87% prediction
5 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/pharmas-first-to-market-advantage
First in class best in class. Currently have 3 year lead, and Akida is only commercially available product. McKinsey shows pharma 1st mover typically gets 40% of market, tech is typically a more winner takes all industry.
6 https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...s+research+initiation+report+-+20+08+2021.pdf
Pitt St Report Report noting typical royalty range of 2-15% with the higher end usually for unique IP like Akida. Taking low to mid range.
7 Formula: Chip market 2027 * Chips with AI * BRN market share * Royalty
8 https://simplywall.st/markets/us/tech
Industry trading at 32x, 3-yr avg of 37x. Can go 50-100x during bull runs. Taking a lower average.
Awesome post, i'll play-
Using T2D3 revenue growth for high growth stocks, i have worked backwards -
mine finishes in 2028- so 1 year longer, with 9B in revenue, meaning in 2023 $125M revenue- this might be a stretch
Lets halve it - which i will frikking take any day of the week mind you - as $60M revenue - we might be heading towards that in 2023, if not 2024 definitely....