AVZ Discussion 2022

[Sangster]

Thanks Sangster

It's also worth remembering the fines are not just €50,000 per day. They are €50,000 per day, per offence. My original suggestion to double it for a rough number is very low. Spikes timer is a much better indicator because it calculates the value from a single offence for each order from the date of each order. But as Carlos pointed out there were many offences considered last time accrued fines were liquidated and there have been many more offences since then.

So if AVZ were to apply for another liquidation of fines accrued as of Dec 31 2025 the amount owed to us by CriminalSA may be a lot higher than even the counter indicates.

However it's hard to estimate an accurate amount because the fines imposed for certain online offences such as tweets were deemed to have less impact over time, so the amount per day was reduced with each day after the posting. I'm going by memory here and haven't checked how this statement fits with the documentation so double check it. Maybe others can clarify if they know for sure.

The key points are:

• The actual amount owed will be determined by the court next time we apply.
• Spikes counter is the best estimate we have but it may well prove very conservative.

 

[Sangster]

Meanwhile this cunt flies across the globe to bounce through a tesla factory.

Fuck this week, fuck this year, fuck also the ASX

I saw a photo of that asshole in the Tesla lobby. The smartest person in frame had his back turned, presumably to avoid being associated with a criminal. No one else was visible suggesting perhaps no one at Tesla had time for the sleazy bastard.

Were there any pictures of him actually meeting someone from Tesla?

 

[Carlos Danger]

It's also worth remembering the fines are not just €50,000 per day. They are €50,000 per day, per offence. My original suggestion to double it for a rough number is very low. Spikes timer is a much better indicator because it calculates the value from a single offence for each order from the date of each order. But as Carlos pointed out there were many offences considered last time accrued fines were liquidated and there have been many more offences since then.

So if AVZ were to apply for another liquidation of fines accrued as of Dec 31 2025 the amount owed to us by CriminalSA may be a lot higher than even the counter indicates.

However it's hard to estimate an accurate amount because the fines imposed for certain online offences such as tweets were deemed to have less impact over time, so the amount per day was reduced with each day after the posting. I'm going by memory here and haven't checked how this statement fits with the documentation so double check it. Maybe others can clarify if they know for sure.

The key points are:

• The actual amount owed will be determined by the court next time we apply.
• Spikes counter is the best estimate we have but it may well prove very conservative.

Offences are fined 'proportionate to the violation'

So the interview was limited to 3 days and the tweets dropped to €25k per day rather than €50k per day as they are less visible over time

The other violations of our rights to the tenement all continue fully with zero respect for the ICC Emergency Orders

The unpaid amounts from the partial award are all accruing interest too

And there have been multiple other new infringements by Cominiere since the partial award imo

 

[Seaworthy]

https://www.mining.com/web/resource-disputes-between-investors-and-states-hit-10-year-high/

Resource disputes between investors and states hit 10-year high​

Reuters | November 3, 2025 | 9:54 am Regulatory Issues Africa Latin America Gold Lithium Oil & Gas Uranium

Colombia. Stock image.
Disagreements between governments and investors over resources are at a 10-year high, law firm DLA Piper said, driven by resource nationalism and growing competition between the US and China for critical minerals.

This reflects the scramble for minerals that will power everything from chips for the AI boom, to electric vehicles, to the valuable oil and gas revenues critical to state coffers, particularly in emerging economies.
The 32 disputes lodged so far in 2025 with the World Bank arbitration body, over everything from oil and gas to gold, uranium and lithium, had already exceeded last year’s total, DLA Piper said.
“As their value has become more apparent, states have felt the need to exert greater control over any deposits of critical minerals within their borders,” said Gabriela Alvarez-Avila, a DLA Piper partner and co-leader of international arbitration.

Of the cases, 17 related to oil and gas assets, DLA Piper’s analysis of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) database showed.
The largest number of disputes, 11 in total, have been in Latin America, while Colombia, with four of those cases, is the single largest.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro last year designated several mining areas as temporary natural reserves, banned fracking and threatened to block coal exports to Israel, creating tension with some investors.
Mexico, which nationalized lithium in 2022, had two cases, as did Ecuador and Panama.
DLA Piper did not break down the specific disputes.
Africa, which has large reserves of critical minerals, has 10 disputes, which involved Niger, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Morocco and Senegal.
The DRC is home to a range of critical minerals including cobalt, copper, lithium and manganese – a target for many countries and investors.
The United States in particular has said it is open to exploring critical minerals partnerships in the DRC after a Congolese senator contacted US officials to pitch a minerals-for-security deal.
Australia-based AVZ Minerals said in July a new deal between Kinshasa and US-backed KoBold Metals to develop part of a lithium project breached an international arbitration order.
Most of the remainder of the disputes identified by DLA Piper’s research were in Europe and Central Asia.

 

[Remark]

Off topic I know but does anyone have any Melbourne Cup tips?

I've done a couple of boxed trifectas - 1,2 & 6 and 1,6 &8

Edit: My perfect record is intact

 

[Sangster]

Off topic I know but does anyone have any Melbourne Cup tips?

I've done a couple of boxed trifectas - 1,2 & 6 and 1,6 &8

Edit: My perfect record is intact

Try the Swedish meatballs from Ikea the week after Melbourne cup. They're better than usual, not quite first place but still better than usual.

 

[Sangster]

Offences are fined 'proportionate to the violation'

So the interview was limited to 3 days and the tweets dropped to €25k per day rather than €50k per day as they are less visible over time

The other violations of our rights to the tenement all continue fully with zero respect for the ICC Emergency Orders

The unpaid amounts from the partial award are all accruing interest too

And there have been multiple other new infringements by Cominiere since the partial award imo

View attachment 92708
View attachment 92709
View attachment 92710

Looking over those points again a couple stand out:
(vii) penalties liquidated to April 3, 2024. Not Dec 2024 as I'd erroneously understood.
(viii) interest is with anatocism, so compound interest.

The first order was 5/05/2023 to 3/04/2024 = 334 days
The second order was15/11/2023 to 3/04/2024 = 140 days
Total 474 days * €50,000 = €23,700,000

This is only 60% of what we were actually awarded due to there being multiple offences, not just one per order. Additional fines have been accruing since 4/04/2025.

Getting creative now:
4/04/2024 to 4/11/2025 = 579 days
Both orders apply so 579 days * €100,000 = €57,900,000

If we assume CriminalSA are violating the orders at the same rate as before and our estimated fines are only 60% of what the courts may award then the silly CNTS could be up for another €96,500,000 in additional fines if AVZ applied for further liquidation today.

That's €135,625,000 total as of today, without factoring in compound interest.

Smarter people please correct me if I've lost the plot.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Looking over those points again a couple stand out:
(vii) penalties liquidated to April 3, 2024. Not Dec 2024 as I'd erroneously understood.
(viii) interest is with anatocism, so compound interest.

The first order was 5/05/2023 to 3/04/2024 = 334 days
The second order was15/11/2023 to 3/04/2024 = 140 days
Total 474 days * €50,000 = €23,700,000

This is only 60% of what we were actually awarded due to there being multiple offences, not just one per order. Additional fines have been accruing since 4/04/2025.

Getting creative now:
4/04/2024 to 4/11/2025 = 579 days
Both orders apply so 579 days * €100,000 = €57,900,000

If we assume CriminalSA are violating the orders at the same rate as before and our estimated fines are only 60% of what the courts may award then the silly CNTS could be up for another €96,500,000 in additional fines if AVZ applied for further liquidation today.

That's €135,625,000 total as of today, without factoring in compound interest.

Smarter people please correct me if I've lost the plot.

Should calculate EPS on that. Might be more profitable that mining!