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AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
“However, the Congolese government maintains that AVZ no longer holds any rights to Manono, asserting those rights were lost when state-owned Cominière terminated its partnership with AVZ in 2022.”Here's a bit of a trip down memory lane and a reminder not to get too excited after all the shit we've been through. The state of play is about as clear as mud imo.
KoBold Seeks Lithium Stake in DRC’s Manono Amid Legal Dispute and Geopolitical Shifts
May 9, 2025 Constance
KoBold Metals, a U.S.-based mining company backed by prominent investors including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is intensifying efforts to secure rights to the Manono lithium deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—a site widely regarded as a potential world-class lithium mine.
A January 2024 estimate suggests Manono holds 669 million tonnes of resources with an average grade of 1.61% lithium.
On May 6, 2025, KoBold and Australia’s AVZ Minerals issued a joint statement titled Developing Manono for Peace and Prosperity, signed by their CEOs, Kurt House and Nigel Ferguson.
The companies announced they had agreed on a commercial framework to expedite development of the Manono deposit.
According to the statement, “this framework provides for AVZ to cede its commercial interests in the Manono lithium deposit to KoBold, at fair value,” enabling KoBold to rapidly mobilize over $1 billion to bring Manono’s lithium to Western markets.
However, the Congolese government maintains that AVZ no longer holds any rights to Manono, asserting those rights were lost when state-owned Cominière terminated its partnership with AVZ in 2022.
AVZ has contested this before the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), where it has already won a ruling ordering Cominière to pay €39.1 million for failing to comply with injunctions. The tribunal has yet to decide on the fundamental ownership dispute.
KoBold’s January proposal aims to resolve the standoff by compensating AVZ in exchange for relinquishing its claims to Manono. The company plans to develop the southern section of the deposit, while the northern portion remains under the control of Chinese group Zijin Mining.
Manono Lithium SAS—a joint venture 61% owned by Zijin (via Jinxiang Lithium) and 39% by Cominière—was granted an operating permit in September 2024. It aims to begin lithium production in the first quarter of 2026.
An Appeal for Peace and Economic Growth
So far, the Congolese government has not officially responded to KoBold’s proposal. The May 6 statement hints at a lack of approval, noting that AVZ has committed to propose a temporary suspension of arbitration proceedings at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) to allow space for negotiations.
KoBold and AVZ appear to be leveraging the current improvement in U.S.-DRC relations. The statement emphasizes cooperation with all stakeholders, including the U.S. and Congolese governments and AVZ’s current development partner.
Framing their offer as a contribution to “peace and prosperity,” the companies promise thousands of well-paying Congolese jobs over several decades.
This diplomatic and commercial initiative comes as Kinshasa and Washington deepen their engagement.
Recently, the DRC proposed a mining agreement to the Trump administration in exchange for support in resolving the conflict in Eastern Congo.
Since then, mining has featured prominently in bilateral discussions, with Washington playing an active role in mediation efforts.
“A lasting peace in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo will open the door to greater U.S. and Western investment, creating an ecosystem conducive to responsible and reliable critical mineral supply chains,” said U.S.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 25, 2025, during the signing of a declaration of principles for a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda—considered a key supporter of the M23 rebellion.
KoBold Seeks Lithium Stake in DRC’s Manono Amid Legal Dispute and Geopolitical Shifts - Copperbelt Katanga Mining
KoBold Metals, a U.S.-based mining company backed by prominent investors including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is intensifying efforts to secure rights to thecopperbeltkatangamining.com
Congolese Government, dumber than dumb corrupt liars, expose the scum to the world.
You are all right, totally right.
We have been fucked over by the DRC, the Chinese, our own DRC lawyers and even the Australian government for almost three years, but this is now the end-game.
We have the DRC on the ropes, a willing buyer (KoBold), DLA Piper in our corner, potentially other suitors running the numbers, the Trump administration bankrolling the bigger regional economic and security initiatives, and CATH funding a continuance of ICSID arbitrations if required. We are in a good position.
Think Dan Ackroid (Blues Bros, 1980) who said "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses". Well, that's us.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Cheers
F
We have been fucked over by the DRC, the Chinese, our own DRC lawyers and even the Australian government for almost three years, but this is now the end-game.
We have the DRC on the ropes, a willing buyer (KoBold), DLA Piper in our corner, potentially other suitors running the numbers, the Trump administration bankrolling the bigger regional economic and security initiatives, and CATH funding a continuance of ICSID arbitrations if required. We are in a good position.
Think Dan Ackroid (Blues Bros, 1980) who said "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses". Well, that's us.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Cheers
F
I believe it’s essentially done, we’re just waiting for the formalities, namely the peace deal to be signed and the acquisition of the world’s largest hard rock lithium mine to be announced as a flagship win for critical minerals.
When it comes to price, it’s important to remember that our largest shareholders are the Chinese. Nigel needs their sign-off to get this over the line. They’ve lost the mine, the supply chain, and arguably face. The only thing that could bring them to the table now is the right price. Otherwise, what incentive would they have to agree?
When it comes to price, it’s important to remember that our largest shareholders are the Chinese. Nigel needs their sign-off to get this over the line. They’ve lost the mine, the supply chain, and arguably face. The only thing that could bring them to the table now is the right price. Otherwise, what incentive would they have to agree?
oxxa23
Regular
it's not confirmed that we shareholders have to agree to anything... we may not get a vote... but, i hope the price is also right...
Whether the ordinary shareholders vote or not is ultimately irrelevant. Nigel can’t make this decision alone. He needs the approval of the major shareholders, especially the Chinese, who hold the largest stake.
KentCStrait
Regular
This is both incorrect and fear mongering. This is not a buyout of the company we hold shares in. An asset the company we hold is being sold. And even then it's not really an asset. What's then done with the proceeds of that sale will likely require a special general meeting and a vote by shareholders but to suggest the Chinese have a say is flat out wrong.
It's interesting how many posts appear when folks are optimistic ( many ) and how few when the mood is down
ATM, they're thick and fast.
Nothing has changed except somebody has probably told NF that they are relatively close to closing this whole sorry saga. Give us another month, we're really, really close.
What has changed is the mood, people believe we've agreed a price etc, etc.
A little like believing in the tooth fairy.
Point is, nobody knows until it happens that it's true / exists. Until then, it's hope, hope that we all share.
How many months will they ask for ICSID postponement? Do you expect KoBold and DRC to act in good faith towards AVZ?
A slightly different point, we have all seen how Putin has stalled Trump. Why will this necessarily be different?
Felix and the rest of his cronies have a primary interest that encompasses staying out of gaol, staying in power and collecting paper bags.
Maybe these aims necessitate dancing to the US tune. Maybe they don't, and the head honchos disappear to Saudi, China or somewhere equally dodgy, but only when they need to. Very few of these corrupt leaders ever see the inside of a court room, let alone a prison.
My simple point is that this has been, for me, an eight year shit show and it it still is.
Nothing is resolved, and until it is; or we get concrete signs that it is, then nothing has changed.
Concrete signs are AVZ, and only AVZ announcements.
I just think that this shit had gone on for so long, that we should not think that we're out of the woods until we can no longer see any trees.
AIMO.
3000 pages.
ATM, they're thick and fast.
Nothing has changed except somebody has probably told NF that they are relatively close to closing this whole sorry saga. Give us another month, we're really, really close.
What has changed is the mood, people believe we've agreed a price etc, etc.
A little like believing in the tooth fairy.
Point is, nobody knows until it happens that it's true / exists. Until then, it's hope, hope that we all share.
How many months will they ask for ICSID postponement? Do you expect KoBold and DRC to act in good faith towards AVZ?
A slightly different point, we have all seen how Putin has stalled Trump. Why will this necessarily be different?
Felix and the rest of his cronies have a primary interest that encompasses staying out of gaol, staying in power and collecting paper bags.
Maybe these aims necessitate dancing to the US tune. Maybe they don't, and the head honchos disappear to Saudi, China or somewhere equally dodgy, but only when they need to. Very few of these corrupt leaders ever see the inside of a court room, let alone a prison.
My simple point is that this has been, for me, an eight year shit show and it it still is.
Nothing is resolved, and until it is; or we get concrete signs that it is, then nothing has changed.
Concrete signs are AVZ, and only AVZ announcements.
I just think that this shit had gone on for so long, that we should not think that we're out of the woods until we can no longer see any trees.
AIMO.
3000 pages.
I wasn't so much of thinking of Macron, but more Paris as the place where ICSID case is to be heard (at least that was my understanding, given I remember reading that the case was to be heard in French). And with the World Bank based in NY and being in the crossfire by the US Treasury, I would say that just adds further pressure to a desire to see a correct outcome.
I was more just thinking that someoone's talked to someone in charge of scheduling somewhere in the admin of ICSID to make sure the right dates all line up.
If at the end of the day if I've read too much into the tealeaves then so be it. Like many on here, I've been living this thing way too closely every day for the past 7 years since I first started investing in AVZ. If this is the endgame, then I'll be glad to see the end of it.
I'm just of the opinion that Nigel and the BOD would be very unlikely to agree to going ahead with the suspension (see May 6 document re the suspension, Clause 7; it's just a proposal, not an agreement) so close to starting the ICSID process unless there was a deal they were happy with and were just waiting for the final pieces out of their control to fall into place (eg. regional peace deal). That's why after seeing that the suspension is in place till the week after the peace deal signing is planned, it lead me to the opinion that it's all over bar the final signatures, and that they have managed to get the best price possible as well, whatever that may be (and it is being kept under very close wraps, most likely with NDAs etc). Remember, Rio's purchase of Arcadium was out of the blue, especially with the price, so no matter how much we might like to wish for whispers, I have no doubt it is a closely guarded secret. Having the threat of ICSID continuation is just there to make sure it all goes through - hopefully.
May the doors from financial purgatory be opened soon. We will all know in a month........
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Cumquat Cap
Regular
Not sure exactly where your allegiances lie but I am sure Nigel will not be consulting corrupt Chinese entities before agreeing to a sale. Levers to avoid a vote in the first place as large Chinese holders would vote down a $5 sale price. Hopefully a strong price tabled that’s accepted by board only
Scoota30
Regular
** SPECULATION **
I have tried to stay healthily skeptical over the last few months as to not jump the gun but I had some pineapple juice this morning which caused an out of body experience so now I'm fully on the "deal is done" bandwagon
So long as we get a fair price (look at the 2 trillion dollar deals with the middle east recently, I think we will be paid fairly regardless of some news articles stating differently), everyone in this scenario is a winner. We all wanted to use ICSID as leverage and it seems like it worked.
Hats off to Trump, Marco Rubio, Boulos, the rest of the US and dare I say it... Congratulations to Nigel and the team. I think it's time to pay out this bet early because it's already done
time to get the bubbly ready.
If I'm wrong, I shall be exiled by TSE in July
I have tried to stay healthily skeptical over the last few months as to not jump the gun but I had some pineapple juice this morning which caused an out of body experience so now I'm fully on the "deal is done" bandwagon
- Kobold & AVZ non binding letter to rapidly progress and agreement
- ICSID now pushed to the week after the peace deal
- Zijin (manono lithium) posting that mining development and operations to begin from July 1st.... 1 week after ICSID starts date
- To get a deal done this quickly, China will have to get some piece of the pie
So long as we get a fair price (look at the 2 trillion dollar deals with the middle east recently, I think we will be paid fairly regardless of some news articles stating differently), everyone in this scenario is a winner. We all wanted to use ICSID as leverage and it seems like it worked.
Hats off to Trump, Marco Rubio, Boulos, the rest of the US and dare I say it... Congratulations to Nigel and the team. I think it's time to pay out this bet early because it's already done
time to get the bubbly ready.If I'm wrong, I shall be exiled by TSE in July
Scoota30
Regular
Devil's advocate noted, I don't make my call lightly though. Regardless of all the shitshow and corruption that's happened, every single one of us have a price and would be happy to walk away and be done with it so long as the price is right - which is what I think has happened. Nigel has been in the US on and off for months now and he wants to see the backend of this as much as we do.
My call still holds, I'll be enjoying the next 4 weeks mentally with a positive attitude but am prepared in the event that I'm wrong.
Mute22
Regular
reparation
/ˌrɛpəˈreɪʃn/
noun
the action of making amends for a wrong one has done, by providing payment or other assistance to those who have been wronged
I honestly don’t believe we’ll ever see true reparations or meaningful compensation for the three years of harm we’ve endured. At best, we might receive a fair return based on the in-ground value of a resource we rightfully own.
But let’s be real. that won’t come close to addressing the intense personal and financial impact this has had on all of us and out families. I won’t dive too deep into personal details, but I’ve run the numbers. The added interest costs, settling for a subpar housing situation (which now means paying stamp duty again just to upgrade if we get enough out of this), missed business opportunities, even putting off starting a family - the emotional toll has been massive.
For me, genuine reparations would require at least 2-3x our all-time high. That’s the level of restitution it would take to even begin feeling like justice has been served.
Anything less is just a return on investment but I doubt we will ever see true reparations for harm done.
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I know nothing is done until the ink is dry but people seem to be letting their minds run away a bit with the current status of the deal with Kobold.
1. The statement from AVZ & Kobold doesn't talk about 'progressing' or 'advancing' discussions on a deal. The wording is "working with all possible speed to conclude the commercial agreement".
2. Nigel would not have signed such a joint statement unless there was already a basic value framework in place that was acceptable.
This is not speculation or wishful thinking anymore, nor is it something we should be unnecessarily doubting. Yes the company has clarified that the agreement so far is still 'non-binding' but they also signed the statement saying they're working with speed to conclude it.
So our default position now is the deal with Kobold is happening, until something changes that disrupts that. Sure there are still hurdles, but I for one don't think Kobold haggling over the price is going to be one of them. They are buying a global geopolitically important resource that is so big it will be able to influence market pricing for its resource - not buying a second-hand toaster at a flea market.
They know what they're getting and they know what the value is*,
and so do we.
(*$12
)
1. The statement from AVZ & Kobold doesn't talk about 'progressing' or 'advancing' discussions on a deal. The wording is "working with all possible speed to conclude the commercial agreement".
2. Nigel would not have signed such a joint statement unless there was already a basic value framework in place that was acceptable.
This is not speculation or wishful thinking anymore, nor is it something we should be unnecessarily doubting. Yes the company has clarified that the agreement so far is still 'non-binding' but they also signed the statement saying they're working with speed to conclude it.
So our default position now is the deal with Kobold is happening, until something changes that disrupts that. Sure there are still hurdles, but I for one don't think Kobold haggling over the price is going to be one of them. They are buying a global geopolitically important resource that is so big it will be able to influence market pricing for its resource - not buying a second-hand toaster at a flea market.
They know what they're getting and they know what the value is*,
and so do we.
(*$12
)
Mute22
Regular
DR Congo eyes US minerals deal tied to peace in rebel-hit east by end of June
Another round of negotiations in Washington expected next week
DR Congo eyes US minerals deal tied to peace in rebel-hit east by end of June
William Wallis and Camilla Hodgson in London
Published AN HOUR AGO
Officials from the Democratic Republic of Congo are optimistic they can reach a deal with Washington next month to secure US investment in critical minerals alongside support to end a Rwandan-backed rebellion in the country’s east.
The scope of Kinshasa’s negotiations with Washington is hugely ambitious, and combines giving US companies access to lithium, cobalt and coltan deposits in return for investment in infrastructure and mines, with efforts to draw a line under 30 years of conflict in regions bordering Rwanda.
Two people close to the negotiations said an investment deal with the US and separate peace deal with Rwanda were possible “by the end of June”. But potential stumbling blocks remain substantial.
The US hopes to regain a foothold in a mining sector that has been dominated by China since Beijing reached its own multibillion dollar mines-for-infrastructure deal with Kinshasa in 2008.
The DR Congo’s mining minister Kizito Pakabomba told the Financial Times that an agreement with the US would help “diversify our partnerships”, reducing the country’s dependence on China for the exploitation of its vast mineral riches.
A deal could also lay the foundations for co-operation between the DR Congo and its neighbours including Rwanda, in the export and processing of metals.
But in a sign of tensions underlying the talks, DR Congo officials said there could be no question of sanctioning of Rwandan involvement in Congo’s minerals trade until M23 rebels retreated from a swath of territory they have occupied since January, and the Rwandan troops allegedly supporting them withdraw across the border.
Rwanda has long been accused of using security concerns across its border as a smokescreen for the plunder of Congolese resources including coltan used in mobile phones, and gold. Rwandan president Paul Kagame’s government denies supporting the M23 rebels, while claiming that his army is defending itself against hostile forces.
People close to the talks said that Kigali saw the negotiations as an opportunity to legitimise access to Congolese resources and attract US investment to expand its own existing metals processing. But before considering any such prospect, Kinshasa wants first to regain control of territory, including the cities of Goma and Bukavu, that it has lost.
“It would be very difficult for us to accept that particularly because there are still Rwandan troops in the [DR Congo] and there are still M23 troops committing abuses,” said a senior Congolese official who asked not to be named.
Yolande Makolo, Kagame’s spokesperson, said “Rwanda’s defensive measures along” the border, “are necessary as long as threats and the cause of insecurity in the DRC persists”. More important than the date of any peace agreement, she said, was for it to “deal with the root causes and be long-lasting”.
But Makolo added that Rwanda was “optimistic” about the approach the administration of US President Donald Trump was taking.
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“Economic collaboration between the countries of the region that leverages our respective strengths, and benefits all our people is what we ourselves have always envisioned for this part of the continent. This is why we are committed to this process,” she said.
A person close to the talks said Massad Boulos, Trump’s Africa envoy and father-in-law to his daughter Tiffany, had called for another round of negotiations in Washington next week to iron out some of the differences.
Boulos, who met Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi in Kinshasa and Kagame in Kigali in April, said last week he had provided both parties with the first draft of a peace agreement.
A spokesperson for the US State Department said: “Both participants have committed to work to find peaceful resolutions to the issues driving the conflict in eastern DRC, and to introduce greater transparency to natural resource supply chains. Respect for each country’s territorial integrity is at the centre of the process.”
Stockinvesting
Regular
FWIW. IMO.
The ICSID previously told both parties the matter would proceed on 1 June. Enough, is enough
No adjournment (suspension) would have been granted, let alone requested, if a deal wasn't very, very close to being agreed upon. The fact AVZ themselves asked for/agreed to the delay speaks volumes.
Note the very short time frame of the adjournment. It's close. Very close.
Awaiting Lawyers' proof reading, minor changes to contracts, gives and takes, final wording........
Deal's done.
The ICSID previously told both parties the matter would proceed on 1 June. Enough, is enough
No adjournment (suspension) would have been granted, let alone requested, if a deal wasn't very, very close to being agreed upon. The fact AVZ themselves asked for/agreed to the delay speaks volumes.
Note the very short time frame of the adjournment. It's close. Very close.
Awaiting Lawyers' proof reading, minor changes to contracts, gives and takes, final wording........
Deal's done.
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