AVZ Discussion 2022

[Spikerama]

Down to Twenty, till bombshells aplenty.

 

[Goat]

The elephant in the room is still the Chinese players.
You think just because Trump has offered security in exchange for a cheap lithium play that AVZ and DRC will bend over and take it. The DRC want the CASH... Any offer that comes in higher than Kobold is appealing to the DRC as it means more cash in their hands once the deal is done.
I personally believe CATH have a cheque for $10B sitting in the bottom drawer ready to be played at the 11th hour.

 

[Azzler]

The elephant in the room is still the Chinese players.
You think just because Trump has offered security in exchange for a cheap lithium play that AVZ and DRC will bend over and take it. The DRC want the CASH... Any offer that comes in higher than Kobold is appealing to the DRC as it means more cash in their hands once the deal is done.
I personally believe CATH have a cheque for $10B sitting in the bottom drawer ready to be played at the 11th hour.

Not if it's part of the security agreement that the USA get Manono. Which it likely is.

 

[Goat]

Not if it's part of the security agreement that the USA get Manono. Which it likely is.

That's been my initial thought this whole time, but it looks like Zijin is doing perfectly fine in the North without the help of an army and ready to scrape Lithium out the ground any day.

 

[cruiser51]

We've spent 3 years of shitfuckery, survived being taken over for cents by the chinese, and now we are 3 weeks away from ICSID starting (after the DRC has tried twice in the last two months to through it out on Jurisdiction) and some of the older shareholders are now ready to fold their cards for Kobold cheap??

Give me a break. Nige has balls of steel - I will be shocked if after all of this he just turns over and folds to Kobold for fuck all. Don't forget the comments about Kobold being in our core library at the last AGM. 100% he would prefer a buyout than going the full hog at ICSID but nobody knows the full potential of Manono more than the big dog.

Let the man cook!!

We have seen some changes on Kobold's X account in regards of getting hold of AVZ's Manono interests.
They weren't made by accident.

So the wheels are moving in the background.
What the final price will be, is what the final highest acceptable offer is.
I leave it up to the BoD to make that decision, they have all the relevant information.

At the end of the day, if Zijin would offer the best deal, over Kobold, so be it.
We simply don't know what the offer(s) are, neither do we want to know, or tell people what would be acceptable.

Let interested parties make an offer and keep negotiations confidential.
Zijin would love to know what the Kobold deal is.
It is in Zijin's interest to fuck Kobold off and make the entire Manono mine a massive operation.
Why share it with its biggest enemy on earth?

The only way Zijin can get rid of Kobold is make sure they make an offer substantially higher then Kobold's offer.

I personally don't give a fuck where the money comes from, or where the lithium goes to.
But I want the best achievable price.

If the US tries to get this on the cheap they could be in for a surprise.
They should be well aware, that China will be prepared to fight to get the entire Manono Resource and throw some money into the equation.
Not to please AVZ, but to get hold of the entire lithium market. That is much more powerful than just half of Manono.

The US has an opportunity to stop this now and I think they would be stupid to fuck this opportunity up, by trying to be too smart.

But at the end of the day it is the BoD which calls the shots, not posters on any social media platform.

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AdrianoDude/status/1921520283648770054

 

[aon]

AVZ Warriors,

I realise that it has been a long road for everyone, financially and mentally and I have the greatest sympathy for all sufferers. For instance, I have had to sell assets to keep me and the misses afloat and we are starting to run on fumes. While the ICSID option sounds good($10 billion) it will not give you the desired result. For one, it will be a long road(years) and I bet you London to a brick on that you are not going to get money out of a broke DRC. We are just fortunate that the Trump administration has realised the importance of securing critical minerals and preventing China owning them and dominating the supply chain and price, and our unique mammoth once in a lifetime deposit is right in their cross hairs. Therefore I think the Kobold offer and any other American interest(a non-binding interest can bring other bidders) is a God send and I would gladly take the offer knowing that this really is the only way out. From what I understand in articles we could be looking at weeks to a few months when all is signed.

How great would that be for long suffering holders considering we have had to wait 3 years!

Bison is right to say we do not know the Kobold offer so why presume anything......but I will say this:

The price of lithium has fallen dramatically since the boom as you can see in the share price of our competitors; it is a buyers market. Sohh....as much as we have the largest deposit globally the lithium price must be considered, the fact we do not have a mine yet, as well as a discount for sovereign risk. I am just being realistic and think this is honestly our only option, and who knows what the price will be.

Sincerely, M8

"Bison is right to say we do not know the Kobold offer, so why presume anything......But I will say this"

Really, well firstly, hello if you are in fact the original M8 from old HC, hope you are well, I always wondered where you had gone and more importantly why.....

Back to Bison and all other holders here who have concerns about Jen softening up the sheep, as for an offer of what 40c pff. Now the mention here of bribes of up to 150 mil being offered/reported, lets hope no one in our camp would ever consider taking bribes to facilitate a shit deal, I'm sure they would not! (sure 40c is better than nothing I hear, being shoved down our throats, as low-ball offers have for some time now), there hidden agendas at play here.... maybe the 21,000 investors have been softened up enough now, let's get Jen inside the T'pee to sell it to the sheep, so we don't see all those SH joining taxi and the clan in the queue taking HQ to task in court. Just my musings, probably nothing in it, hmmm.

So whats that I hear, we are only speculating on the offer based on Jen (plus others on the inside of the Tp) no if these dudes were like the rest of us plebs that observation of yours would hold water, but I say its leaky, these dudes are on a mission it would seem, the million $ ? is that mission in the interests of the 21,000 investors..... or others..... just speculating, sorry thinking out loud, maybe I'm wrong, I'm not sure at this point but it does smell.

On fair value, you have to be joking. Surely you don't really expect the majority of SH to believe that.
Yes, Lith Rm are down, so f what, they are not buying (sry attempting to steal this deposit) because they think Lith is cooked, are they.....
They want it for the opposite reason, they want to control the lith market for the next 30+ years, and they know that the price of lith will be off and running in due course, going gangbusters again. Let's get rid of the plebs for nics, and get this asset, and do whatever it takes.
Lets shut the BS down and stop insulting the majority of SH about this being a good offer, or a fair offer, or a reasonable offer, it's shit offer, an opportune offer, "A TOKEN OFFER" at best.

Sharpen your pencil, I would suggest, M&Dad/SH are sick of being f o.

ps have a pleasant day all honest SH, who are not running hidden agendas.

 

[Skar]

Not if it's part of the security agreement that the USA get Manono. Which it likely is.

.... Kobold specifically have said as part of their proposed deal, they don't want to antagonise China and will compensate AVZ for ANY lost stake (Bezos, Gates etc have interests in China- Bezos took a very anti-trump stance on the Tarriff situation so its not like the US is one uniform entity without its own internal politics either, thats why I say Kobold are ONE potential way forward). In exchange Kobold have asked AVZ to agree to a framework... AVZ have agreed AND publicly stated its a non-binding framework. If AVZ management decide the framework has not led to an attractive position for SH, it doesn't have to proceed. Kobold obviously feel they can get to a place where all parties are happy.... given the project economics I do too (thats why I think SP guesses or premature accusations of low ball offers are not yet warranted).

What I assume this will all mean is once all the details are worked out, we will be made aware of a potential plan. Until then we are all just reading tea leaves on this one. What people do not realise though is AVZ while massive to us, is a little pebble of value in the grand ambitions of the players discussing things now, TRILLIONS of dollars for the them vs a few billion +/- on this deal is not going to get them out of Africa (maybe out of Manono until its more attractive to commit the capital but as long as their is value in it for them, they will pay).

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

That's been my initial thought this whole time, but it looks like Zijin is doing perfectly fine in the North without the help of an army and ready to scrape Lithium out the ground any day.

Ziljin has paid US$150+M in bribes. We don't pay bribes.

 

[aon]

.... Kobold specifically have said as part of their proposed deal, they don't want to antagonise China and will compensate AVZ for ANY lost stake (Bezos, Gates etc have interests in China- Bezos took a very anti-trump stance on the Tarriff situation so its not like the US is one uniform entity without its own internal politics either, thats why I say Kobold are ONE potential way forward). In exchange Kobold have asked AVZ to agree to a framework... AVZ have agreed AND publicly stated its a non-binding framework. If AVZ management decide the framework has not led to an attractive position for SH, it doesn't have to proceed. Kobold obviously feel they can get to a place where all parties are happy.... given the project economics I do too (thats why I think SP guesses or premature accusations of low ball offers are not yet warranted).

What I assume this will all mean is once all the details are worked out, we will be made aware of a potential plan. Until then we are all just reading tea leaves on this one. What people do not realise though is AVZ while massive to us, is a little pebble of value in the grand ambitions of the players discussing things now, TRILLIONS of dollars for the them vs a few billion +/- on this deal is not going to get them out of Africa (maybe out of Manono until its more attractive to commit the capital but as long as their is value in it for them, they will pay).

I like your post Scar, but Jen and (D...... & friends in high places) are not 'just reading t bags mate' imo, but happy (hoping you are right) to be proven wrong in due course, let's hope you are dialled in better than me for everyone's sake. Good luck to all, we have been s..... from all sides in my view.

 

[PhatCatz]

There is no fair value fairy mate, there is only what someone is willing to pay.
If you can find a buyer whos willing to pay more for Manono, please email management and set up a meeting.

Also @Mining8 is a very well respected poster from way way back, assuming it's the same guy from HC.
And I would say there are far more lurkers on TSE than regular posters, who aren't into chatting about everything day in day out like us losers do

Apologies if it’s come across as crude on my end. I need to take a rest from here. I understand the situation AVZ has found itself but in now way the board should entertain 40c offers.

ISCID route or fuck off if that’s the case. People bang on about that route taking forever etc etc. they do realise we can negotiate an exit post ISCID??? Our hand will be much much stronger with good legal title settled, a compensation claim in the back pocket and we can enter negotiations from a position of power. Sure it will piss off DRC but fuck then after the way they’ve treated our company.

It can still go to the USA but we’d have ownership sorted so that whole “risk” as they bang on about for fair compo won’t be a factor. It will also open up compensation for the north.

It boggles my mind people on X are crying over the ISCID route. These same people that probably bought in a mill shares at 2c…. They don’t give a fuck about anyone else but themselves. It’s the people who bought in above 80c range on avg that will lose a lot. They need to be looked after at the bare minimum. 40c won’t cut it.

 

[wombat74]

oh yes good idea, take the first offer that comes along because they always offer their best deal first.... seriously WTF, how about a recap, kobold have a NON BINDING offer, and thats all it is an offer. ZIJIN RIO or saudia arabia could/can and probebly will make an offer too. so how about you take a chill pill, kick back and relax and well see what other offers come to the table before the ICISD hearings become un-temporaily suspended and we air all the dishonesty to the world

This is obviously not directed at me ?

 

[Skar]

I like your post Scar, but Jen and (D...... & friends in high places) are not 'just reading t bags mate' imo, but happy (hoping you are right) to be proven wrong in due course, let's hope you are dialled in better than me for everyone's sake. Good luck to all, we have been s..... from all sides in my view.

Well I for one am not plugged in to anything, I went to the investor road show in Sydney a few years ago when this mess first began. If your insinutation is that Jen and Co had/have or acted on non-public knowledge back when we were a public traded company... thats a big accusation. I just think people have been wrong more than they have been right and some people are just rainmakers (not directed at anyone specific) and will tell you its going to rain, its going to rain, until finally it does, then say "see I told you".

I am commenting as an outsider giving my opinion, looking at the world and trying to predict trends. Investment in Africa is a bit of an emerging thematic right now.

Above all, I trust our current management, I have been in this long enough to have been betrayed by the previous one (Klaus\airguide\superninja).

 

[Thaz]

Surely shareholders aren't going to forget that the UAE are more than likely looking to come to the table as well??

A first offer/bid is always a great way to get the party started.

It only takes one to start a bidding war.

And as always. With negotiation. Never accept the first offer. I have faith that Nigel would do us justice

 

[Skar]

This is obviously not directed at me ?

I wouldn't take it personally... Kobold have a nonbinding framework AVZ have agreed to, not an offer i.e if we can get these conditions met, between these parties, within this time, lets do a deal. Lot of ifs and maybes to be worked out along the way to an offer IMO.

After all, we are 6 months in now.

 

[Azzler]

I don't think anyone has claimed 40c is an acceptable offer, I think maybe we're assuming things here in our arguments.
I also do not believe that anyone outside of the BoD or Kobald knows what the offer on the table is, and I suspect that an actual value has not yet been offered and it's likely an agreed ballpark range that they are now negotiating on.
For the record that's just my belief, not based on solid info, but you know, I stick my nose in the wind as much as possible.

From the signed MoU we all saw, I would make the assumption that both parties are reasonably confident they can eventually agree on the terms, including the price, and I do not believe Nigel and his team would ever sell us out.

It's down to leverage and the art of the deal imo.
Sure we might speculate that Kobald would pay up to $5 if they had to, or that AVZ would take $1 if they had to, so who blinks first?
If Kobald is the only one offering, they can offer the minimum.
Maybe AVZ say no thank you and Kobald say ok ok, we'll pay more.
Or maybe they just tell AVZ the offer stands, and now Nigel has to find another trick to play... who knows.

It's ok to speculate on price, but once people start making demands or threats then things are just getting stupid and emotional.

Let's just wait and see what kind of offer is yet to be made. It might be ok after all.

 

[Winenut]

Apologies if it’s come across as crude on my end. I need to take a rest from here. I understand the situation AVZ has found itself but in now way the board should entertain 40c offers.

ISCID route or fuck off if that’s the case. People bang on about that route taking forever etc etc. they do realise we can negotiate an exit post ISCID??? Our hand will be much much stronger with good legal title settled, a compensation claim in the back pocket and we can enter negotiations from a position of power. Sure it will piss off DRC but fuck then after the way they’ve treated our company.

It can still go to the USA but we’d have ownership sorted so that whole “risk” as they bang on about for fair compo won’t be a factor. It will also open up compensation for the north.

It boggles my mind people on X are crying over the ISCID route. These same people that probably bought in a mill shares at 2c…. They don’t give a fuck about anyone else but themselves. It’s the people who bought in above 80c range on avg that will lose a lot. They need to be looked after at the bare minimum. 40c won’t cut it.

Totally agree here on ICSID

The whole legal avenue must continue

Proving up title, putting some metrics around the numbers/value, powerful, powerful, powerful bargaining chip

Absolutely correct negotiations can take place and deals can be made any time up to, during and after ICSID

ICSID is the one thing that can bring forward and help facilitate a meaningful and fair deal

Management dropping the legals would be a massive commercial blunder

It is only when everything is done and dusted and appropriate funds firmly in all shareholders bank accounts that the legal switch gets turned off

Anything else is a complete folly

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

As a reformed car salesman I can confirm that the first offer is the one that gets shopped around

 

[Shire]

Did I miss something? Why has everyone all of a sudden got worked up about an offer of 40c? As far as I know the only time that number has been put out was in The Australian's article in March which referenced $1.5B USD + royalties and a more recent dubious post on HC that very much looked like it was written by AI and referenced a Jane Carter at Macquarie Group who doesn't exist.

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

Did I miss something? Why has everyone all of a sudden got worked up about an offer of 40c? As far as I know the only time that number has been put out was in The Australian's article in March which referenced $1.5B USD + royalties and a more recent dubious post on HC that very much looked like it was written by AI and referenced a Jane Carter at Maquarie Group who doesn't exist.

Agree. This is hopefully my last post on SP pay-out speculation. 40c is BS. Trust Nige, Board & DLA Piper. They know what we all invested, the ATH, the risks and the asset value over LOM modelled over a myriad of scenarios. IMO Time to stop speculating. Br Sparrowhawk12.